Author: vertical and horizontal source: planting flower city (ID: hqsycn)
On September 8, the United States decided to extend tariffs on China.
This is a simple and unimportant piece of news, but we need to see a key signal from behind these small pieces of information:
The United States is undergoing “empire remodeling” and is reshaping its “manufacturing Empire”.
There are four main reasons why the United States has never given up tariffs:
First, they are unwilling to give up this weapon against China; Second, Dai Qi does not want to be marginalized. Dai Qi’s backstage is the American trade union, and Biden dare not touch her easily; Third, US interest groups are not willing to give up tariffs, which means that their interests are damaged.
Another point is that the United States should use tariffs to return manufacturing.
In this regard, the author would like to say two points:
1. Reconstruction of “manufacturing Empire” that cannot be ignored
The world manufacturing industry is divided into three levels,
The low-end has now gone to India and Southeast Asia;
The middle end is mainly in China, and China’s weakness is in the high end, including design, R & D and manufacturing;
The advantages of the United States lie in high-end design and R & D. compared with China, its weaknesses lie in the middle end;
What are China and the United States doing now that competition is so fierce? They are all making up for their own weaknesses. China is attacking the high end, and the United States is supplementing the middle end.
One of the purposes of the United States is to impose tariffs to allow manufacturing to return to China, in order to make up for the shortcomings of its own mid-range manufacturing industry.
Here is a brief introduction. When people talk about the United States, they say that the American manufacturing industry is “hollowed out” and that the American manufacturing industry is weak. This is actually wrong.
This “weakness” of the United States is relative to China,
Among the 22 categories of manufacturing industry tracked by the United Nations, China ranks first in the world in terms of output, and the other six rank second in the world; Among the 190 countries in the world, China is the largest trading partner of 128 of them. It can not be said that China is too strong.
How is the situation in the United States? Among the 22 categories of manufacturing industry tracked by the United Nations, the United States also has 6 outputs that rank first in the world and 13 outputs that rank second in the world. Only cars, clothing and leather fall out of the top two.
So do you think the United States is weak? The United States is not weak. It is still a traditional manufacturing power. But compared with China, it seems to have become a dwarf, and it is now making up for it.
Returning to the subject, let’s look at other actions taken by the United States, such as the “Indo Pacific economic framework”, which has no practical attraction so far. Can it really decouple participants from China? Obviously not likely.
The author suspects that its real purpose is not here, but to make trouble. That is to say, it doesn’t matter whether we can make it in the United States or not. The point is to let you do it badly. It would be better if we could use this time to make trouble and buy time for the reconstruction of the US manufacturing industry.
The United States, which has built its country on industry and benefited from it, will not fail to understand the importance of manufacturing.
On the one hand, the United States uses many means such as “tariff increase”, “Indo Pacific economic framework”, “chip act”, “infrastructure act”, and on the other hand, it invests trillions of dollars in the next generation of manufacturing industries and technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of things, cloud computing, etc. we seem to see that the United States is remodeling its “manufacturing Empire” and even the entire United States.
We must pay attention to this point.
? video screenshot of Biden
2. See clearly the level of competition and have no illusions
China and the United States are not only competing for interests and welfare related life, but also a “contest of survival” to a certain extent.
What is the essence of the Sino US contest? At the bottom is the struggle for “the right to development” and “the right to survival”. Compared with this, all other interests are not worth mentioning.
If we fail to recognize this, two problems will easily arise:
First, I do not understand why the United States is using some self defeating tactics, including trade war, science and technology war and a bunch of Anti China bills. It is precisely for the above reasons that as long as the final strategic goal can be achieved, not to mention that it will lose 800 points by killing 1000 enemies, it will do it even if it loses 1000 or 12 points.
Second, it is easy to have unrealistic illusions. Many people fail to see this. They are always trying to persuade the United States not to engage in a contest between China and the United States at the expense of their own interests. They even think that with the binding of China and the United States’ interests, the United States will be deterred. This is the illusion generated by not recognizing the essence of China US competition. This is not good.
In the face of the current situation, as the author said earlier, big countries like China and Russia have no right to surrender. The huge size means that China and Russia have original sins in the eyes of the United States. Even if they surrender, the United States will kill you. Therefore, we have only one choice, that is, we must “come out”.