Author: Chairman rabbit source: tuzhuxi (ID: Chairman rabbit)
I haven’t written anything about the covid-19 epidemic for a while.
Now, when I meet with friends in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, one of the questions I often discuss is: “when will the current epidemic prevention and control policies be adjusted and liberalized?”
Tell me some of my judgments.
1) The development of epidemic policy is not necessarily related to political activities or events that occur at a specific time point – for example, the Party Congress and the two sessions that most people are concerned about. The reason is that this decision-making is still a decision-making around public health issues in nature, which first depends on the professional consideration and judgment of public health experts. Political considerations cannot override or override professional judgment. of course:
On public health issues, political considerations are also important, helping to provide necessary input so that economic, social and livelihood impacts can be fully taken into account in the decision-making process
In addition, it should be noted that the epidemic prevention and control policy will have a high degree of continuity, and the effect and impact of policy continuity will be far higher than that of the change of government or personnel. In this major public policy issue, the consistency, continuity, continuity, stability and long-term nature of the policy are the most important
2) Friends in Beijing pay more attention to the management of entering and returning to Beijing and pop-up windows. The author believes that Beijing’s pop-up management has the possibility of flexible adjustment and will definitely be subject to the influence of specific political events. The policies publicly announced in the capital have also clearly stated that consideration should be given to the actual situation in the capital, and “moderately strict”. It should be understood that Beijing is the political heart of this large country with a population of 1.4 billion. The cost of the shutdown of national central institutions due to the epidemic is incalculable, so the capital will be strict. This will definitely affect people in Beijing and those who go to Beijing to work. We can only expect governance to adjust policies dynamically and timely according to the actual situation.
3) Vaccination: the ninth prevention and control plan is mainly based on nucleic acid detection and dynamic zeroing, but it is not enough to promote vaccination. On this issue, the author’s view is:
The vaccination rate is the most intuitive quantitative indicator we can observe. If the vaccination rate does not go up, there is no precondition for discussing “liberalization.”
According to official disclosure, data in March this year showed that there were still 52 million elderly people over 60 years old in China who had not completed the whole vaccination, of which the largest proportion was those over 80 years old. Hong Kong has a population of more than 7 million, and the vaccination rate of the elderly is also very low. After the “liberalization”, nearly 10000 people died immediately. Taking China’s current vaccination situation as an example, once it is “liberalized”, it will inevitably have a huge impact on the health and safety of high-risk groups, and run on medical resources at the same time
If we do not observe large-scale, comprehensive, systematic and positive measures to promote the vaccination rate in the surrounding areas, then there is no precondition for liberalization
In addition, in view of this problem, it should be pointed out that although China has a national system and big government paternalism, it lacks the social foundation and political motivation to promote compulsory vaccination. When it comes to compulsory or semi compulsory vaccination, it will lead to a huge reaction. Therefore, vaccination faces bottlenecks and obstacles; The vaccination rate cannot be raised, and there is no way to talk about further adjustment of prevention and control policies
4) The gap between urban and rural areas and the backwardness of rural medical resources: urban residents and “operators” occupy the Internet opinion platform and can influence and dominate the discourse on epidemic prevention and control. However, the high-risk group of the epidemic is rural areas, because the medical infrastructure and resources here are far behind those in cities, and the aging population in rural areas is also far higher than that in cities (according to the seventh census, the proportion of elderly people aged 60, 65 and above in rural areas is 23.81%, 17.72%, 7.99% and 6.61% higher than that in cities and towns respectively). Once the epidemic breaks out, the problem of lack of medical resources in rural areas will become extremely serious, causing these regions to suffer a huge blow. A few days ago, the website of the Central Discipline Inspection Commission and the State Supervision Commission published a official account, “lying flat in the face of the epidemic is no way out”, listing the following data:
“The reporter consulted the 2021 statistical bulletin of China’s health development, the 2021 statistical bulletin of Anhui province’s health development, and the 2021 statistical bulletin of Shouxian county’s national economic and social development.” FINDINGS: at the end of 2021, there were 9.448 million beds in medical and health institutions across the country, and 6.70 beds in medical and health institutions per 1000 people; There were 411000 beds in medical and health institutions in Anhui Province, and the number of beds in medical and health institutions per 1000 people was 6.72; Shouxian county has a permanent population of 837800, 4599 beds in medical and health institutions, and 5.48 beds in medical and health institutions per 1000 people.
It can be seen that the per capita beds of medical and health institutions in Shouxian County, Anhui Province are 18.2% lower than the national average. If the statistics are focused on rural areas, medical resources will only be more strained. Take Anhui Province as an example. In 2021, the number of beds in township health centers per 1000 rural population is only 2.85. Just imagine, if the epidemic is allowed to spread, the primary medical resources will be run, and production and life will be suspended, which will inevitably endanger the national food security. “
If “liberalization” and “coexistence” are adopted, China’s first tier cities and high-energy second tier cities can barely cope, but the countryside will face a major blow. This will be the place where the run on medical resources is the most serious and the probability is that it will collapse across the board.
5) The recent situation in other developed countries: the development of the epidemic in Japan, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries – especially the occupation and run of public resources by the epidemic, as well as the sequelae of covid-19, will certainly make our decision-makers think that we must not open up rashly, but fortunately adhere to the previous policies.
6) About who: will the definition of covid-19 “pandemics” be revised? What impact will it have on China?
Who has not announced the end of the “pandemic”. The expert committee responsible for assessing this may have differences and discussions, but it certainly supports maintaining the judgment of the “pandemic”;
China is certainly within this decision-making process and will not depart from it;
Who’s definition adjustment will certainly be the premise for us to adjust epidemic prevention policies;
If who adjusts the definition, will we fall into a passive position? In fact, there is no passivity. Our government’s primary consideration is China’s actual national conditions. There is no need to be a pioneer, but it can tolerate a certain “lag”.
7) Many people believe that the epidemic prevention and control policy will affect the economy. However, policymakers must consider not only the economic losses caused by the current policies, but also the economic costs, social and public health costs and corresponding political risks after “liberalization” and “coexistence”. If this matter is very simple, as some people think, the benefits of “liberalization” are obviously greater than the costs, the economic situation is thriving, the people’s health and safety are not affected at all, and the political climate is also very good – if there is such a good result, the decision-makers would have chosen “liberalization” long ago. At present, we choose not to open up. After careful analysis, we believe that the cost is far greater than the benefit, and we can not “open up”. To solve this problem, we need to believe:
The interests of policy makers and all citizens (but not individual citizens) are completely the same. If the benefits of “opening up” are greater than the costs, they will choose to open up; If the cost of “liberalization” is greater than the benefit, the current policy will continue
Decision makers must have more information than we do. So don’t think you are smarter than the decision-maker
8) Is there room for further improvement in China’s current epidemic prevention and control? There is certainly room for further optimization, but this optimization can only improve the current “dynamic zeroing” by means of science, technology and governance, and seek a better balance between epidemic prevention and control and economic and social costs, but it will not be the cancellation of “dynamic zeroing.”
9) The formation process of public health decision-making: decision-making requires time, extensive collection of information, in-depth demonstration, and formation of decision-making. At present, the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan was issued at the end of June this year. It has only been more than two months so far. Further improvement and iteration will certainly take time. There is no trivial matter in a large country with a population of 1.4 billion. The development of epidemic prevention mode cannot be rapid, but it must be advanced step by step and steadily. Therefore, we should have realistic expectations of the decision-making time
10) After nearly three years of the epidemic, most people have been very tired. How to improve the public’s understanding and support for the current epidemic prevention policy? In fact, the essence is still a publicity problem: leaders need to actively publicize and make a voice. If we want to speak out in due time, we may not be able to rely solely on the official media to publish written articles:
What is the core of our epidemic prevention policy;
Why should we adhere to the current epidemic prevention policy and why are we different from other countries;
On the one hand, we should recognize the impact of the epidemic prevention policy on the economy and thank the people for their contributions. On the other hand, we should explain how serious the consequences will be if we do not adhere to the existing epidemic prevention policy;
How will our epidemic prevention policy evolve; What are the considerations of decision makers; What will our epidemic prevention policy be like in a year, two years or even longer;
Express gratitude to the people for their contributions, and encourage the people to continue to cooperate with the existing epidemic prevention policies;
Finally, generally speaking, the author thinks that there is no realistic basis for “opening up”. Now:
1? There is no need to try to guess or even “game” the “liberalization” of epidemic prevention policies;
2? We should better understand the logic of China’s current epidemic prevention policy;
3? If you have time, you may as well put forward constructive optimization suggestions.
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