Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
In his article on protracted war, Chairman Mao once said from a strategic height, “politics is a bloodless war, and war is a bloodless politics”. Although this sentence was said in 1938, it still shines today 84 years later. Now the game between the parties in the Russian Ukrainian war is its most appropriate footnote. When the Ukrainians bled, many countries in Europe and the United States also launched a smoke free war with Russia.
At the group of seven summit held on June 26 local time, Biden not only talked about his new strategy of containing China, but also announced a series of plans to increase sanctions against Russia. With Biden’s strong push, the summit agreed that the seven countries would stop buying gold from Russia in the future. Although 90% of Russia’s total gold exports in 2020 were eaten by the group of seven, the leaders of these countries still approved of this proposal. Biden then proudly announced that the sanctions would “reduce Russia’s revenue by tens of billions of dollars”.
The day after the announcement of this plan, Biden launched a sanctions plan against Russia’s defense industry. The plan is prepared to impose sanctions on people and institutions related to Russia’s defense industry. The White House announced that the sanctions list has at least 500 people and believes that this can “further isolate Russia from the world economy”. At present, 70 entities and 29 individuals have been announced. In addition, the G7 will also impose restrictive measures on foreign companies that help Russia evade sanctions.
The European Union has also made a move. In order to give Zelensky a little comfort, who has been struggling for EU seats for a long time, after the leaders of the four countries of France, Germany and Italy visited Ukraine on June 16, the EU finally passed a resolution recently, agreeing to grant Ukraine the status of EU candidate. In addition, the EU member state of Lithuania also openly blocked the land traffic between Russia and the enclave of Kaliningrad, and said that it was implementing the plan of the sixth round of EU sanctions against Russia. The president of the country even said that as a member of NATO, we were not afraid of Russia.
We don’t know whether NATO will guarantee Lithuania, but NATO has indeed made some sensitive deployments recently. At the NATO summit just concluded, the Polish government asked NATO to deploy a brigade level combat force inside Poland to resist “possible future military operations by Russia”. It is believed that NATO troops will soon move to Poland.
One force reduces ten meetings
What is not available on the battlefield is also not available on the negotiation table. The fighting nations naturally understand this truth. In response to the dazzling actions of European and American countries in the past half month, Russia did not argue with them at all, and directly launched a counterattack with specific military actions.
On the day Biden announced sanctions against Russia, the Russian army fired 14 missiles into Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, which was confirmed by Alexei goncharenko, a member of Ukraine’s supreme Rada (parliament). It’s not that the Russian army hasn’t done this, but the last missile launch was three weeks ago. It’s hard to say that this time it’s not a wake-up call for Biden in Germany. Biden received more bad news than this. Alexander struk, the head of the military and civil administration of northern Donetsk, announced on the TV program that the Russian army had completely occupied and controlled northern Donetsk, and the remaining Ukrainian army had retreated to external defensive positions.
Therefore, the G7 summit is quite “funeral” and there is really nothing exciting news for them. So the group of seven had to promise Zelensky, who appeared in the camera, that it would provide 28billion euros of assistance to Ukraine in the future.
However, even if Russia does not take any specific action, the actions of the European and American countries above will not play any role.
First of all, gold has always been a hard currency in the international market. There are other buyers who don’t buy it from the group of seven, and they don’t worry about selling it at all. In addition, the concept of “buying gold in troubled times” has always existed in people’s hearts. I’m afraid that the price of Russian gold will rise in the future, and it’s not certain who will make a profit or lose. Moreover, the group of seven countries ostensibly promised not to buy gold from Russia, but after the gold melted, it had no name. They had too many tricks to build plank roads and hide their positions.
Secondly, Biden’s sanctions against Russia’s defense industry are more like a joke. Is it difficult that Russia’s defense is developed by American technology? The key components of key weapons must be in Russia’s own hands, and non key components can also be replaced. There is no situation that cannot be created because of U.S. sanctions. More importantly, the U.S. sanctions against Russia reached its peak as early as after the Crimea incident in 2014. Obama almost racked his brains to find the field of sanctions against Russia. Biden is now nothing more than a face saving article. The U.S. sanctions against Russia had reached an unbearable level eight years ago.
In addition, the candidate status does not mean that the EU can join the EU. The EU can completely pay lip service but not pay attention to it. There is a precedent for Ukraine to wait for a few years, or for a decade or two. Turkey won the candidacy in 1999, but until now, the European Union still forbids Turkey to join, which has been 23 years away. At present, NATO’s troop deployment is also difficult to achieve any results. How much deterrent can a brigade combat team play in the face of Russia?
The general trend is gone
The above news has clearly explained the fact that the action against Russia launched by European and American countries in the past half month ended in failure again. It is better to say that European and American countries have been failing for several months. Successive failures have even affected the views of western people on this war. At the beginning of the Russian Ukrainian war, the BBC set up a special column to report on the war, with real-time rolling updates, and even a special report on which urban area the Ukrainian and Russian troops occupied. However, now the channel is updated once in a few days, and all the updates are the news of the defeat of the Ukrainian army. It seems that the western media are also very tired of this protracted war. Like vultures preparing to eat the bodies of dying animals, they waited quietly for the end of the Russian Ukrainian war, which also returned to its due attention.
Now, on the contrary, Russia has made great progress and achieved considerable results on the battlefield. Russia has a lot to do in the next stage of the game.
Militarily, the Russian army has taken Lugansk, Kherson, zaporoze and Crimea. The goal of the third stage is to occupy OSAD, Kharkov and Nikolayev.
(the pink area is the area controlled by the Russian Army)
It has to be admitted that the Russian army is facing certain difficulties in the third stage plan. Kharkov is the second largest city in Ukraine, with more than 1.4 million people settled here, while Odessa is the third largest city in Ukraine, with a population of about 1 million. It is impossible to win these two cities easily, and it is impossible not to fight a few vicious wars.
However, the news in favor of the Russian army is that there has been a significant decline in the quality of the Ukrainian army’s soldiers and the number of equipment. A large number of veterans have been exhausted in previous operations. The “strong men” gathered by pulling people have no combat effectiveness in the modern battlefield, and those western assisted equipment recruits will not be used without training. Not long ago, Russian media also reported that the Russian army found the Ukrainian soldier’s mobile phone while cleaning the battlefield. The search record on it showed that before the Ukrainian soldier was killed, he was still searching “how to use javelin anti tank missiles” on his mobile phone.
(the place marked in the red box is the search content)
Politically, Russia also has a certain operating space. According to the Russian satellite news agency, on June 25 local time, the Russian army launched missile attacks on multiple targets in Ukraine, and the launch sites of these missiles are in Belarus, which shows that the degree of Russia Belarus integration has been greatly improved. In addition, Russia has resumed the deployment of Iskandar missiles in Belarus, which can carry nuclear warheads. Lukashenko’s agreement to deploy them in Belarus also fully demonstrates his attitude.
At present, Russia’s strategic goal is actually very clear. They will not choose to occupy the whole territory of Ukraine, but to take back the Russian speaking region of Ukraine, that is, the several states shown in the figure below. After the military occupation is completed, Russia is likely to stop and force Ukraine to accept this status quo. At that time, no matter what Zelensky’s attitude is, it doesn’t matter. The end of the third phase of military operations is likely to be the time when the Russian Ukrainian war returns to the negotiating table.
Compared with Russia’s ease, the European and American countries may not be able to play any good cards next. No matter how they help the Ukrainian army, they cannot change the fact that it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to defeat the Russian army head-on. It has been four months since the war began, and the front has been advancing to the West. The Ukrainian army can only delay time by sticking to fortifications. How many Ukrainians are willing to participate in this war without any hope of victory?
A rehearsal
To some extent, the fierce attitude of European and American countries in the Russian Ukrainian war may be a “rehearsal” in the future, which can let us see their nature of putting everything first.
Why do you say so? In fact, it is not difficult to find that since the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, many countries led by the United States have immediately occupied the commanding height of morality and launched a frenzied bombardment of public opinion against Russia, but in addition, they have not made any action that can substantially change the situation. “Sanctions” and “assistance” cannot be said to be of no help to Ukraine, but to a large extent, they can only be regarded as additions. Finally, the Ukrainian army has to rely on its own strength to delay the Russian attack.
In fact, it is very simple for these countries to keep Ukraine. Since they have occupied the position of righteousness, wouldn’t it be OK for them to send troops directly to the war at the request of ZELINSKY and at the request of the Ukrainian people? After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO still expanded eastward and regarded Russia as its enemy. It was time for NATO to show its determination and will. Judging from the initial combat effectiveness of the Russian army, once NATO troops join, it can completely change the war situation. However, NATO chose to sit on the sidelines and let Ukraine be ploughed by Russia with artillery again and again.
Some people may emphasize that Russia has a large number of nuclear weapons, and NATO dare not risk provocation against Russia. This statement seems to be correct, but the U.S. nuclear arsenal is not inferior to Russia. Why can Russia make NATO dare not go beyond the minefield by virtue of nuclear deterrence, and even dare not provide large-scale assistance to Ukraine with heavy weapons, while the United States cannot make Russia not start war by virtue of its own nuclear weapons?
The nuclear game is indeed complex, but it is not without trace. At the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, facing the threat of the Soviet Union, then US President Kennedy directly assumed the posture of a nuclear war. There was no discussion without withdrawing the missiles deployed in Cuba. There were only two options, “surrender or war”, and finally succeeded in forcing Khrushchev to give in. This attitude of fighting with one’s life is the most important. Compared with the current one, we can find out whether the nuclear weapons in the hands of the world’s No. 1 U.S. Army and Biden are all paper?
To put it bluntly, the United States has now degenerated into a “merchant” country. Its foreign policy stresses that “revenues exceed expenditures” and at least “revenues make ends meet”. The most unacceptable thing for such a country is to fight to the death. Biden did not intend to pay any price for Ukraine at all. The heroic words promised to Zelensky before the war were just some scenes, because he knew that getting involved in the quagmire of Ukraine would only bring financial deficits to the United States, and the United States could no longer afford such a war.
(US troops withdraw from Afghanistan)
Since the United States is now reluctant to part with its own little pots and pans, it is not difficult to speculate about its attitude towards an island in the future. Being abandoned by Ukraine is a lesson for some clowns.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
These are the problems of the United States exposed by the war between Russia and Ukraine. Although Russia’s performance on the battlefield this time is indeed not very good, it also exposed some problems in military construction in recent years, but after all, it resisted the pressure from the United States and deterred NATO. At the same time, it also achieved good results, and the victory has been written in their schedule. The United States, the world’s largest military power, did nothing at this time, which fully verified Chairman Mao’s words: “all reactionaries are paper tigers. It seems that the appearance of the reactionaries is terrible, but in fact, they have no great power”.
This remark was made by Chairman Mao to American reporters in 1946, and it is also not out of date now.
For a long time in the past, the United States was a real tiger. Like the Cuban missile crisis, it would open its mouth and bite at the slightest move, but now the United States has become a paper tiger. Although it can still scare people with the word “King” on its forehead, it will reveal its secrets when it comes to real knives and guns. Isn’t that the case this time? In the past, some countries and regions used to rely on “real tigers” to fake tiger power, which is understandable, but relying on “paper tigers” to reproduce the same effect can only be said to be somewhat stubborn and conservative. What’s more, when the United States used the power of the victorious country in World War II to suppress the Korean Peninsula, China dared to defend its national security head-on, not to mention the current state of the United States.
It seems that it won’t be long for people to come out of wuyuansai at night without hearing human language and whips.
(Note: this poem comes from Lu You’s “after the cursive script written in tizui”, which roughly means: when can we expedition the Jin people in the North like when we sent troops to fight against the Xiongnu in wuyuansai in the Han Dynasty? I can already imagine the scene of our army being very purged, only the sound of whip and horse, but no one’s voice.)