Face to face confrontation, the largest scale this year!

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Source: wechat official account: Bu Yidao has been authorized to reprint

Write / huyidao & Small tiger Sabre

Singapore Shangri La dialogue, here we go again!

Because of the COVID-19, the incense club was closed in 2020 and 2021 and resumed this year (June 10-12). 37 ministerial level representatives from 42 countries will attend.

For the Chinese people, what is more noteworthy is that not only our defense minister weifenghe will lead a delegation to attend this incense ceremony, but also the organizers of this incense ceremony gave a keynote speech to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Considering that the Japanese government has frequently made provocations on China related issues recently, especially on the Taiwan Strait issue, I wonder whether Kishida will attack China on the “three seas” issues of the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait in the keynote speech of the incense club.

In addition, the defense ministers of China and the United States will have face-to-face talks at this incense ceremony, which is the first time since the Biden administration took office. At present, the United States has adopted a highly competitive strategy towards China, so it is noteworthy.


The Japanese media and the LDP are undoubtedly very excited about prime minister Fumio Kishida’s keynote speech at this year’s incense ceremony. They believe that this is a recognition of Japan’s “great power influence”.

The current Prime Minister of Japan delivered a keynote speech at the incense conference. The last time was Shinzo Abe in 2014. It has been eight years since now.


Regarding the content of this keynote speech, Kishida revealed at a conference on the 8th that he would “spread Japan’s diplomatic and security thinking to the world” at the incense conference.

Japan’s Kyodo news agency took the lead in disclosing the general content of Kishida’s keynote speech, saying that under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and “China’s strengthening of maritime activities”, Kishida would call for “promoting maritime cooperation among more than 20 countries”, saying that this move was “technical cooperation to maintain maritime order in the Indian Pacific region and improve maritime security capabilities”.

At the same time, Japan will also make it clear that it will formulate plans to promote “a free and open India Pacific” by next spring at the latest.

Kishida will also use the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to play up a sense of crisis. Kyodo news agency said that Kishida would say that “the same situation may also occur in East Asia”, indicating “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. “Japan intends to fundamentally strengthen its defense capability within five years” to ensure a “considerable increase” in military spending.

“The same situation may also occur in East Asia.” the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait “and other words have actually been said by the Japanese side before. The purpose is to let other forces join Tokyo in the Taiwan Strait. The spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs of our side once made a stern refutation.

Kishida also intended to publicize the “necessity of building an international order through dialogue”, and planned to target China, saying that “attempts to unilaterally change the status quo continue in the East China Sea and the South China Sea”, “in addition to providing patrol ships and building maritime infrastructure, Japan also plans to support Indian Pacific countries in talent training.”

This has fully exposed Japan’s ambitions in the East and South China seas.

It is reported that Japan also wants to ignite a “nuclear weapons debate” at the Hong Kong Association.

Kishida may mention Russia’s “nuclear threat” in his keynote speech, and will also say “promoting practical nuclear disarmament measures based on the trust relationship with the United States”. In addition, the Japanese side may also ask for “disclosure of information on nuclear warfare capability” on the pretext that “Beijing may enhance its nuclear warfare capability transparently”.

The Jiji news agency reported that “on the one hand, China has rapidly increased its armaments in an opaque state”, on the other hand, it has “safeguarded its interests” in Southeast Asian countries and Pacific island countries by means of “over financing”, claiming that “China should be vigilant against economic coercion”.

After paving the way for these contents, Japan will sell the advantages of the idea of “free and open Indo Pacific” to other countries led by ASEAN to win their understanding. In the field of economic security, Kishida may make a “commitment” to “support more than 100 supply chain strengthening projects within 5 years”.

If Kishida’s keynote speech could be regarded as a one-way attack on China, the “China Japan defense ministers’ meeting” held after that is likely to be a face-to-face confrontation between China and Japan, and will also be another focus of this dialogue.


The Sino Japanese defense ministers’ meeting is likely to be held on June 12. This will be the first face-to-face meeting between the two since the video call in December 2021. The last face-to-face meeting between the defense ministers of China and Japan was in december2019.

Japanese media speculated that the two sides would exchange views on topics such as China Japan relations and regional situation. It is said that “due to the pressure on the situation in the East China Sea, including the Diaoyu Islands and its adjacent waters, by the Chinese army and coast guard ships”, Japanese defense minister Nobuo kishio will express his concern about “China’s attempt to unilaterally change the status quo”.

Moreover, Yasuhiro is likely to mention “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” again.

At the same time, in order to prevent “accidental conflicts” between the Japanese self defense force and the Chinese army, the two sides will also discuss the use of “hotlines” for mutual communication between cadres of the defense authorities. It seems that the defense ministers of China and Japan will inevitably have a lot of quarrels.


Although the symposium was held in Singapore, it was hosted by the Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS), a British think tank, so many agenda settings showed the “color” of the West.

For example, it is reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky is likely to make a video speech at the incense conference.


According to the latest agenda published on the Internet, Zelensky will speak in the afternoon of June 11.

Zelensky has previously made many speeches at major international conferences and activities by video, including the 64th Grammy Awards ceremony in April this year and the annual meeting of the world economic forum held in Davos, Switzerland last month.

At the same time, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister serni is also expected to be invited to attend the incense ceremony. For NATO, the chairman of the NATO military committee and the Dutch admiral Bauer will attend the dialogue. In this way, NATO and Ukraine will use this occasion to launch a public opinion offensive against Russia.

Of course, the focus of most concern is the face-to-face talks between the Chinese and US defense ministers at the Hong Kong incense Association. Some US media said that this was not only the first face-to-face meeting between Wei Fenghe and Austin, but also that the content would cover topics such as Taiwan.


On the 8th, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post quoted an anonymous source as saying that in addition to the Taiwan issue, Austin also hopes to have a dialogue with Wei Fenghe on security issues in Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and other regions.

Observers hold different views on the Sino US defense ministers’ meeting. Some people believe that this may become an opportunity for China and the United States to ease tensions, because the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shown the world the disastrous consequences of a modern war, which is very terrible. Therefore, China and the United States do not want to get fired.

Others believe that China has little hope for the United States to adjust its Taiwan policy and its attitude towards Sino US relations, because the “four no’s and one no’s” promised by the United States itself have not been implemented. The United States just wants to keep putting pressure on China, but it never thinks about what compromise it should make.

According to Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao, a US official disclosed that once Austin and Wei Fenghe met, they would discuss the potential “barrier” of Sino US military relations to prevent out of control competition. The official said that how to define “guardrail” is still under study.

In April this year, weifenghe had a telephone conversation with Austin. After the call, the focus of the content released by China and the United States is different. China’s Ministry of defense pointed out that Wei Fenghe warned that if the Taiwan issue was not handled properly, it would have a subversive impact on China US relations. The Pentagon said that the two defense ministers discussed China US defense relations, regional security and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

As most of the US military and political resources are invested in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Austin will face pressure. Some people in the United States believe that Austin wants to convince some countries in Asia that they can rely on Washington. Washington still focuses on the “Indo Pacific region” and balancing China is a long-term strategic goal.

Elbridge Colby, a former senior Pentagon official, said, “they say that China is a huge threat, even a serious threat. However, most of the attention and resources seem to have basically gone to Europe. This is not a matter of words, but a matter of action.”

Many media believe that the bilateral talks between the United States and China and most of the meeting may focus on the Taiwan issue.


An American scholar analyzed that there is no doubt that the South China Sea issue and the Taiwan issue will become the focus of the US side’s hype at this incense conference.

On the issue of the South China Sea, the US side will continue to clamor that China’s threat to the rule-based order system defined by the US in the South China Sea and even in the construction of the international maritime order will be played up by free navigation based on the so-called rules and order. This will be a very clear direction.

At present, the issue of Taiwan Strait is the key issue that the United States believes can best mobilize its global allies to focus on China’s competition. By linking it with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European allies of the United States are trying to shift their attention to Asia Pacific Affairs.

As for the Taiwan Strait issue, the main purpose of exchanges and communication between China and the United States is to manage and control differences. There is little possibility to resolve differences. In terms of the current situation, what the United States used to play with in the situation in the Taiwan Strait was the “sausage cutting” strategy, which we usually call it. Now it is increasingly showing that the United States wants to “swallow the sausage”.


The calculation of the US side is that in the process of swallowing sausage, the two sides will not touch the bottom line of the war through a bottom line communication and exchange with the Chinese side. From the perspective of the Chinese side, the Chinese side has always emphasized the management and control of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, but the US side now turns cutting sausage into swallowing sausage. From the past strategic ambiguity to the more and more frequent “slip of the tongue” now.

There is no doubt that the US side is creating a huge crisis on the Taiwan issue and trying to shift the responsibility for this crisis to the Chinese side. It has to be said that this practice is playing hooligans.

Therefore, if the meeting between the defense ministers of China and the United States takes place, I believe that the Chinese side will definitely state its position and measures on the US side’s Taiwan related issues, and clearly point out their threat and danger. At the same time, it will also point out that the stability of China US relations must be based on the careful handling of the Taiwan issue. Finally, if the two sides can reach some consensus on controlling the bottom line and boundary, it will be a success.


As for the meeting between the defense ministers of China and Japan, I believe the Taiwan issue will also be a focus. In recent years, Japan has even raised a higher profile than the United States on the Taiwan issue, because Japan hopes to win over the United States’ European allies to the Asia Pacific region and win over the United States to endorse Japan’s Taiwan related actions.

Compared with the China US defense ministers’ meeting, the China Japan defense ministers’ meeting may focus on some more specific topics, such as Taiwan issues, territorial disputes, maritime navigation, and the security of the Korean Peninsula, which are more local and regional. The China US defense ministers’ meeting focuses on core issues and issues related to global strategic stability.

In general, the purpose of this exchange meeting is to maximize the transparency of authoritative exchanges on intentions, action directions and specific measures at the level of defense ministers, so as to ensure that China, Japan and China, as well as the United States, have borders on some topics of mutual concern, and it is very important to know where the bottom line is.

In addition, it is worth noting that in addition to providing a stage for the defense ministers’ meeting, the incense club also shows its position to a considerable number of defense and security institutions and departments in the world through such exchanges. Then, whose position can win resonance in the largest number of countries, the effect of who will be more prominent in the process of attending the meeting.

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