Author: ye Lihua source: Qiushi (ID: gh_a2f5eb6a8f0c)
Qian Xuesen, the founder of the two bombs, once said that the complexity and security of a system cannot be improved at the same time. The higher the complexity of a system, the lower the security.
The world today shares a large market. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union and economic globalization, everyone has participated in the global economic cycle system. Industries are distributed across countries and follow the principle of lowest cost.
Energy is obtained from the cheapest place, manufacturing is arranged in the place with the lowest cost, and raw materials are imported from the place with the lowest cost. The emergence of the WTO has turned the global economy into a huge system.
If the economies of all countries in the world are the same as those before the first World War, and countries basically circulate internally, the collapse of a country’s economy will have little impact. The economies of various countries are independent of each other and the systems do not interfere with each other.
Therefore, before the 1929 economic crisis, there were occasional crises in the economies of various countries, but they never had an impact on the global economy.
After World War I, the world economy was integrated. The larger the system, the more complex it became. The more complex the system became, the more fragile it became. There are more factors that can destroy this system.
There is only one part of the weight, and the weight will not break. The scale is composed of four parts: brace, weight, hook and hinge. The scale is not easy to break. A steelyard can be used for a lifetime in ancient times, and a weight can be passed on to the family.
When the system is as complex as an electric kettle, it has a long service life. For a complex system such as an aircraft, two or three backup systems are often designed. Because the system is too complex, the system redundancy can only be used to offset the insecurity.
There are tens of thousands of parts that make up the aircraft, and every part is likely to have problems. Any key part that has problems will cause accidents.
If there is only one system, accidents will occur frequently. Because the complexity of the aircraft as a system is too high, the security will be greatly reduced. Only by backing up two or three systems can it become safe.
Aircraft is only a part of the world aviation economy. Aviation economy is only a link of transportation, and transportation is only a link of the world economy.
The aircraft has a system backup, but the world economy does not. It is not easy to do a good job in the world economy, and it is much simpler to destroy the world economy.
In 225 BC, the state of Qin perished from Han and Wei, and a small country called anling became the next obstacle for the king of Qin to unify the world.
The anling Kingdom only has 50 li of land. The king of Qin sent people to anling to engage in diplomacy with the anling monarch. He wanted to exchange 500 li of land with anling monarch. He hoped that anling monarch would agree to him.
It was Hui who traded a large piece of land for a small piece of land. The king of Qin wanted Hui to die anling Jun and Hui to destroy anling state.
An Lingjun asked Tang Ju to be an envoy to the state of Qin. Tang Ju went to the state of Qin and reasoned with the king of Qin. The king of Qin said don’t provoke me to anger, give you benefits, don’t you? The anger of the son of heaven will kill millions of corpses and bleed thousands of miles.
Tang Ju is neither humble nor overbearing. You, King Qin, can be angry, but I, Tang Ju, can’t be angry?
When you are angry, millions of corpses will fall and thousands of blood will flow. When I was angry, I fell on the corpse and bled five steps. The world is plain. Today is also!
The king of Qin quickly knelt on the ground to apologize, saying that it was unnecessary for him to do so, sir. I would not fight anling.
There are always people who fear conflict, have a little money, and hide in a safe place, dreaming that as long as I don’t irritate others, and as long as I value peace, I will be able to keep the hard-earned development achievements.
Just imagine, if Tang Ju went to the state of Qin and told the king of Qin that we wanted peaceful development, would the king of Qin kneel down and apologize?
There are two kinds of illusions about peace in our hearts. The first is that we advance by an inch, and the second is that we retreat again and again.
The Chu army and the Jin army met, and the Jin army had a strong fighting force, but it showed the demeanor of a big country to do what it said. It had promised before that if there was a war, it would retreat first, negotiate, and fight a decisive battle without understanding. The Jin army retreated, but the Chu army still moved forward, advancing by an inch. The Jin army did not retreat any more, and the Chu army was defeated in the first battle.
In the face of the advance of Liao and Jin, the government of the Northern Song Dynasty kept retreating. Every time it retreated a little, the northern regime further retreated and retreated. Every day, it gave people year-old coins, thinking that giving them year-old coins would bring peace. In the end, it gave them year-old coins, and the army still had to go south. Finally, it was a shame for Jingkang.
Advancing by an inch and retreating again and again, there are two kinds of performance, one is to start, hoping that the opposite side will not turn around.
The reason for this hope is that peace has not been seen for too long. The European economy not only needs to burn natural gas to maintain its livelihood, but methane, as an important industrial raw material, has been in short supply for only half a year. The producer price index in Germany has soared to 37%, and the consumer price index has risen by 7.5%. There is a price difference of 30% in the middle. German enterprises are gritting their teeth and insisting.
Everyone is engaged in economic activities. Some people do the beheading business. If they lose money, the next step is to close down.
German voters need to count where the closed German enterprises have gone. It is hard to say whether the Virgin Mary of Germany has counted them, but the German government knows. It is ready to start the planned economy and regulate foreign investment.
The global economy is very fragile. As a part of the global economy, the German economy hopes that the war will wipe out Russia and achieve German economic growth.
I didn’t expect the fragility of this system at all. Russia is very hard and gives this fragile system a hard blow. The natural gas is not sold. If there is too much production, it has to be burned by accident. The fire burns the natural gas that should have been sold to Germany. Germany’s economy and temperature have entered a cold winter together.
Of course, kind Russians have left a back door for this matter. It’s a pipe problem, or do not want to completely turn over. The more the Russians are like this, the more they do not show their determination to completely reverse, the more the illusion of the Germans will be intensified, and the provocation will be further rampant.
Of course, enterprises will go further.
In September, China actually used 63.47 billion yuan of foreign capital, an increase of 15.8% year-on-year.
For four consecutive months, China has achieved positive growth in foreign capital absorption in a single month.