This article is reproduced from Niu tanqin (ID: bullpiano) with authorization by Niu tanqin
Data chart
There is no doubt that the past week was a crucial one on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield.
The Ukrainian army launched a fierce offensive, claiming to have recovered 3000 square kilometers of land and captured many strategic towns. Qianfeng is only 50 kilometers away from the national border. The video shows that some Russian tanks and tanks were discarded and some Russian soldiers were captured.
According to CNN, this is an amazing week. The success of the Ukrainian army and the failure of the Russian army are equally amazing. Moreover, the Ukrainian army has
The land seized in the past week is more than all the land occupied by the Russian army since April.
The key is that the battlefield situation has changed. In the past, the Russian army was basically attacking, attacking and attacking, and the Ukrainian army was losing ground one after another; Now, the Ukrainian army launched a large-scale counterattack, and the Russian army had to retreat by a large margin. The battlefield is full of variables.
Why?
I’m not a military expert. I think there are only five reasons for this.
First, the Ukrainian army “sounds East and strikes West” + “Blitzkrieg”.
Don’t forget that the Ukrainian army has always claimed to launch a major counter offensive. Where is the focus of the counter offensive?
Anyway, in the past, people thought it was herzon in the south. The Ukrainian army has indeed launched waves of attacks, and American officials have also openly said that the Ukrainian army is trying to “reshape the battlefield” in the Kherson region.
What does the Russian army think?
According to western analysis, the Russian army immediately adjusted its military strength, and a large number of reinforcements with rich combat experience were transferred from the north to the south.
But suddenly, the Ukrainian army launched a fierce counterattack near Kharkov in the north. Moreover, the weakest place was selected – an area controlled by the Luhansk militia, followed by the relatively weak Russian National Guard.
This kind of “diversion” + “blitz” really worked. Considering the careful planning of the Ukrainian army and the insufficient preparation of the Russian army, the battlefield situation immediately reversed. In a short week, the Ukrainian army marched forward, and the Russian army had to retreat in an all-round way.
Second, weapons, weapons, weapons.
The weapon of criticism cannot replace the weapon of criticism. On the battlefield, weapons are obviously crucial.
In the video, the Ukrainian army uses all kinds of high-performance weapons provided by the west, “haimas” rockets, “stinger” air defense missile system, “javelin” anti tank missiles, m777 howitzers, and various individual weapons.
In addition, Britain, the United States, Norway and other NATO countries have also trained a large number of Ukrainian soldiers, some of whom have returned to the battlefield, and they are fighting locally.
The current Ukrainian army is no longer the same as the Ukrainian army six months ago.
On the other hand, on the Russian side, we can see some analysis saying that the Russian army “cannot compare with the highly mobile armored commando of the Ukrainian army”. Moreover, according to the west, the large consumption of Ukrainian battlefields has made Russia face a shortage of ammunition, and even Russia is trying to buy UAVs from Iran and seek ammunition replenishment from North Korea.
It is worth noting that the Russian army’s hasty retreat did not seem to receive strong support from the air. There are only two reasons: 1. There are problems in ground air coordination; 2. Russian warplanes are still scared of the Ukrainian army’s air defense weapons.
I don’t know the truth. But on one side is a Russia, and Russia’s strategic interests are not only in Ukraine. The entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO means that Russia must also be on guard in the north; On the other side are Ukraine, which has made all-out efforts to attack, and almost the entire Western camp, which has made every effort to assist Ukraine.
Third, strategy, strategy, strategy.
Weapons are important, but they are not the decisive factor on the battlefield. If high-performance weapons decide everything, the United States will not lose to the Taliban, nor will it withdraw its troops from Iraq.
More important than weapons are morale and strategy. I won’t say much about morale. In the famous Cao GUI’s debate, there is a saying: fighting with a husband requires courage. If you work hard, you will lose strength again and again.
This sentence has been used in the Chinese Textbooks of middle schools before. You can understand it carefully.
As for strategy, don’t forget the proverb: one soldier will bear a nest.
The Ukrainian army’s “feigning East and attacking West” is a strategy, and choosing the weakest point to attack is a strategy. What about the Russian army?
It is not ruled out that the commander’s random change is very important. When he saw Chechen leader Kadyrov, he said bluntly on social media: obviously, the Russian army made a mistake. I think they will come to some conclusions.
In his view, there is confusion at the command level, because “if the Russian general staff does not want to leave, (the troops) will not retreat”; Moreover, these Russian soldiers “did not receive proper military training”, which led to their having to withdraw.
In addition, during the withdrawal process, a large number of tanks and other weapons were discarded, which also showed that there was indeed something wrong with the cooperation of the Russian front forces. To make an inappropriate analogy, Su Yu described Du Yuming as follows: he can only win wars, not lose wars, only fight under favorable conditions, not under unfavorable conditions.
However, the battlefield changes rapidly, and we must consider all kinds of situations. If the morale is low, we can not win the war, and if the strategy is not good, it will be a disaster.
Fourth, war mobilization.
Many friends think that the biggest focus of the Russian army’s crotch pulling is the issue of war mobilization.
After the outbreak of the conflict, Ukraine mobilized for an all-out war. At that time, millions of refugees fled abroad, but Zelensky ordered that all men of the right age should not go abroad.
Why? Because the battlefield needs Ukrainian men.
At the same time, the west is also another kind of comprehensive mobilization, strangling Russia and providing Ukraine with various weapons and ammunition. In addition to providing Ukraine with all Soviet style weapons stored in Eastern Europe, the west is now providing offensive weapons such as hippocampus, which can directly attack Russia.
What about Russia?
It has always been a “special military operation”.
This is beneficial. It means that Russia and Ukraine are not at war yet, which helps to win the support of the Russian people. At the same time, Ukraine does not dare to rashly attack Russia; However, it also has disadvantages, that is, the front-line troops are insufficient, and they also lack sufficient ammunition and weapons.
After all, war is a matter of burning money. Without adequate logistics, it is difficult to get a good report from the front.
Moscow does not believe in tears. In many wars, the Russian (Soviet) army has always been characterized by early pulling and later toughness. As the situation changes, Russia cannot be ruled out from making major strategic adjustments.
Fifthly, make good use of every trick and cloth your pockets.
War is about the final outcome, never the gain or loss of a city or a place.
The Russian army is retreating. The west says it is a great rout, and the Russian side says it is taking the initiative to withdraw, aiming at strengthening the strength of Donetsk. However, if you look carefully at the battlefield situation map, in the past week, the Ukrainian army has indeed launched a large-scale attack and is wedging behind the Russian army. In some places, it has penetrated for 30 to 40 kilometers.
What does that mean?
If the two powerful brigades of the Russian army carry out a rear encirclement, it means that the Ukrainian army that goes deep may be made dumplings. Regardless of whether the previous withdrawal was forced or active, the Russian army is expected to reverse the situation at one stroke. This devastating blow is a heavy blow to the morale of the Ukrainian army.
Don’t forget that luring the enemy into depth and then making a strategic encirclement has always been a feature of the Russian (Soviet) army’s operations.
Of course, if the Ukrainian army’s leading force is brave enough, it does not rule out the success of interleaving, completely disrupting the Russian army’s deployment, or even cutting out and annihilating the protruding Russian army, the battlefield situation will be more favorable to the Ukrainian army and force the Russian army to withdraw on a larger scale.
However, after more than half a year of fighting, the Russian army still occupies a large area of land in Wudong. The overall strength of the army has the upper hand, especially the heavy artillery and air superiority, not to mention the potential of war; The Ukrainian army also began to counter attack, Western weapons continued to play a role, and morale continued to rise.
The Ukrainian army’s attack further encouraged the West. Originally, under the impact of soaring energy prices, war fatigue in the West has intensified; However, the victory of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield will undoubtedly boost the confidence of the West and provide more assistance to Ukraine. As Putin warned, the United States will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
This is a crucial week. We have seen dramatic changes in the battlefield, but the changes are continuing. But what is certain is that the next winter will be an exceptionally cold one.
Pity this fertile land, which is constantly ravaged by gunfire and smoke; The once prosperous city is now in ruins; Pitifully, there are more people who will continue to fall in pools of blood. Alas, poor bones by the Wudong river used to be people in the spring boudoir dream!
This is the cruelty of war. Peace is really precious. I remember that when the conflict broke out, I said this: the victory of war will never be forever. With the passage of time, countries often defeat themselves by launching and winning wrong wars.