From Airbus orders, how far is Japan from Ukraine!

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Source: a bad potato (id:iamhtd)

Let’s look at this issue from another perspective. Last time I wrote about the last war against Japan, a friend said:

When did China’s per capita GDP exceed that of Japan?

Talk about this topic.

After the “lost 40 years”, Japan’s per capita GDP has stagnated for a long time, and even declined in 2021, and now it is $39000.

If our per capita GDP exceeds that of Japan, it will also reach 39000 US dollars What will this mean?

Our economic aggregate has reached 55trillion US dollars. Well, the global economic aggregate is 87trillion US dollars, and China accounts for 63% of the global aggregate

I was a little dizzy after reading this data and wanted to laugh. If such an algorithm was followed, there would be only two countries in the world at that time, one China and one foreign country.

There is only one developed country in the world called China and one developing country called foreign country.

In fact, is it impossible to achieve such data?

Obviously, it is not such an algorithm. However, China’s per capita economic aggregate is bound to surpass Japan. Before surpassing Japan, the unit of measurement of the international currency has long been the US dollar.

There are several possibilities for the per capita to surpass Japan. One is the outbreak of the third technological revolution, and the global economy is developing by leaps and bounds again. Now in the field of intelligence, China and the United States are more than two superpowers. The only country where the third technological revolution is likely to erupt in the future is between China and the United States, and the gap with other countries is widening.

In 2021, the GDP of China and the United States accounted for 40% of the world, while the scientific research funds accounted for 63% of the world, and the gap between China and the United States was becoming smaller and smaller

If the third technological revolution breaks out, in addition to the increase of economic aggregate, it will further widen the gap with other countries.

However, judging from the current global development trend, the outbreak of the third technological revolution is still far away

The second possibility is that industries in other countries will be competed step by step under the premise of established stock.

The fastest to be eaten is Japan.

Why does the United States want to encircle China’s chip industry? Because if it wants to compete fairly, the United States has no chance, which is equivalent to throwing in the towel. In 2020, if the United States does not give a tough hand and gives Huawei five years, the United States will no longer need to encircle, and then China can encircle the United States

Therefore, the United States can only lift the table.

Last time I wrote about Japan, many people said that even if the automotive industry declined, Japan still has many advanced technologies, such as cameras.

Hey, always leave some soup for Japan. The top five cameras are all from Japan, but the total size of cameras in the world is $3.1 billion. How many people use professional cameras now?

This industry is not a dime compared with cars, and this share is not given to Japan?

Really don’t give a living? Then Japan will jump over the wall tomorrow.

In fact, this is why China recently placed a large order of US $37.2 billion with Airbus. Many people say, why do we buy European planes? Why don’t we use our own C919?

First of all, we have to see that it is not long since the successful flight test of C919 in China. From the successful flight test to mass production, it still needs a process. It needs to be verified successfully, put into production, expand the production line, mass production and so on for at least a few years. It is not a matter of kneading the mud and moving immediately.

Do we have to wait all these years?

In the next 20 years, China will need at least thousands of aircraft, and the C919 will not be able to meet it in the short term. This is a reality.

Second, let’s look at a data.

In 2021, China EU trade was 874.6 billion US dollars, but China’s surplus reached a staggering 290.3 billion US dollars!

This year, the trade surplus is still further expanding. In the first five months, the trade volume between China and the EU reached 2.2 trillion yuan, the export to the EU reached 1.45 trillion yuan, the import from the EU was less than 800 billion yuan, and the trade surplus was as high as 690.8 billion yuan, an increase of more than 70% year-on-year.

What does this mean? The EU has less and less to sell to China

No way, China is too strong! Chinese people are really capable!

At the same time, what we see is h& M withdrew from China in a panic, adidas’ sales volume fell steadily, and more and more people choose domestic products for ordinary consumer goods.

If we don’t even buy a plane, then

The European Union cried and said that you really didn’t give a chance. Then I’m determined to work with the United States on you.

It seems to me that 500 years ago, Europe loaded with whole ships of silver plundered from South America, came to China to exchange silk, tea, ceramics and other “made in China”, and then transported back to Europe thousands of miles away, because “made in China” is the only luxury recognized by European officials.

But in this trade process, almost no goods in Europe are needed by China on a large scale.

I also thought that 300 years ago, the United States came to China to engage in trade. Every time American cargo ships came to China for six months, they could not be sold out. After the return of American cargo ships loaded with Chinese goods, they were all seconds short, and even President Washington had to rush to buy

In the end, the United States really couldn’t make up for the deficit, because it really couldn’t take out the goods China needed, so it began to import opium and sell it in Turkey. Unfortunately, today, if it wants to sell opium, it can only sell it to itself. The United States is a proper global drug consumer.

Well, why does trump not hesitate to lift the table, destroy the rules of the game of capitalism, and also contain China’s technology, because if he doesn’t do so, he will soon go back to 500 years ago.

No way, China is really too strong, this is the truth.

So, save some market for others

China’s per capita will surpass Japan and become a developed country faster than China, because Japan will decline fastest among all countries.

In the last article, I said that China would kill Japan’s auto industry in five years. Is this estimation fast?

Not at all, because China’s “friends” will speed up China

Under the premise of China’s automobile exports rising, in June, European enterprises came together. Audi FAW new energy plant officially started construction, BMW Rita plant was put into production, Mercedes Benz’s 4million complete vehicles in China were just when the first EQE was offline, and Volkswagen Anhui MEB plant’s first white vehicle was offline

In other words, in the field of traditional cars, Japan is not only gradually losing market share, but also in the field of new energy vehicles in the future, China is absolutely unshakable first, and Japan can’t even drink soup.

To review again:

Japan’s consumer electronics industry, once the world’s largest, is now gone. The world is full of “made in China”;

Japan’s shipbuilding industry once ranked first in the world, accounting for 40% of the global share. Now it is almost eaten by China and South Korea. Today, China’s shipbuilding industry accounts for 50% of the world;

Japan’s automobile is the country’s industrial pillar and the number one in the world. Its future decline is a foregone conclusion;

…….

After all these are gone, the only thing left in Japan is the industrial mother machine, but in fact, this market share is not large. Japan’s annual output value is only about $15billion, and Japan can barely support this $150 market for 10 to 15 years.

Of course, there are many small industries in Japan, ranking first in the world, but it’s useless.

For example, coating and developing equipment, Japan accounts for 98% of the global market, and the global market is $1.1 billion;

For example, Japan accounts for 94% of the global market share, and the global market is 390million US dollars;

For example, Japan accounts for 83% of the global market share of oxidation furnaces, and the global market is 380million US dollars;

………

All these industries in Japan are not as good as 1/100 of China’s shipbuilding industry. What’s the use?

It’s useless.

China also has a large number of such small and beautiful industries, but no one has ever taken these as core industries;

Japan also has a service industry that ranks first in the world. In 2010, it was also quickly lost by China. The Japanese travel to China and linger in a certain place and don’t want to go back. But in 2014, China thought about it. Forget it, I don’t want this industry, and leave it to you.

Say no, don’t, uproot it!

Otherwise, Japan will have no guarantee for the future.

??

In the future, China’s per capita will surpass Japan, not that China’s per capita will reach 40000 US dollars, but that China will rise significantly and Japan will decline significantly. China and Japan will meet at 160000 yuan per capita.

Then Japan became a developing country and China became a developed country

This will be a landmark time for national rejuvenation. Of course, it is likely that Japan will take risks before this moment. We will talk about this later.

In the future, Europe will have a great opportunity to “prosper together” with China. Of course, it is China that leads them to “prosper together”

Because compared with Japan, Europe is still “a man who knows the current affairs is a hero”

For example, in the automotive industry, Germany is very clear that there is only one king in the automotive field in the future, so it has intensively started to set up factories in China to carry out cooperation to ensure that it can take a share in the future.

Similarly, in June, Airbus set up a research and development center in China. Europeans know that the rise of China’s domestic aircraft in the future is unstoppable. On the one hand, they will make money in the gap period, and on the other hand, they will make progress together in the supply chain.

China, with vast territory and abundant resources, accounts for 1/4 of the global civil aviation aircraft market. For Boeing and Airbus, it is a competitor with equal technology. Whoever gets this 1/4 market can be said to be a sure winner in the future.

The aircraft ordered by China from Airbus will be delivered in 2024 and completed in 2027. It will span five years from now. In this five-year period, China has a heavyweight chess piece that combines vertically and horizontally.

Europe has to face a choice, that is, if it listens to the United States to encircle China, it is equivalent to giving its profits and market to the United States for nothing. There is no contradiction between China and Europe, and encircling China is not good for itself.

Listen to the words of the United States, be cut by the United States leeks;

Listen to China and make money together;

What would Europe choose? The final result is that Europe will only follow suit, and others dare not

Europe should feel lucky because it still has the value of “United Front” and “cooperation”.

But Japan doesn’t think so. Japan believes that if China develops further, it will be the first to fall out of the ranks of developed countries.

In fact, Japan once had the opportunity.

Many industries in China originally wanted to be “deeply integrated” with Japan and wanted to develop together.

For example, the LCD panel of Japan once accounted for 94% of the global share, which was a global monopoly.

15 years ago, China prepared to develop its own LCD panel, and then sharp, the giant of LCD panel, came to the door and proposed joint development. China hopes to win-win results. As a result, after repeated negotiations, it has been delayed for 3 years and found that Japan is wasting time and has no sincere cooperation

Then, China finally made up its mind to develop independently. Today, China’s LCD panels account for 41.5% of the global market share, while Japan’s share is less than 10%, and the rest is snatched away by South Korea by 33%.

Many industries in China now, especially the game with Japan, are repeating this story. Japan absolutely does not want China to have any opportunities, and the final result is that it has lost all opportunities.

As for why Japan doesn’t want to give China a chance, I have already written.

Essay | who is most afraid of China’s great rejuvenation?

Now, Japan is going the same way to black, preferring to become Ukraine itself. It is more urgent to hope that a fierce conflict between China and the United States will break out, and it can benefit from it.

So Kishida said that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.

Because for Japan, China’s development, Japan will be the first to decline, and in the end, it may not even be able to drink soup.

In fact, 20 years ago, when we wanted to establish a China Japan South Korea Free Trade Zone, China and Japan might eat meat together in the future. Unfortunately, Japan did not have the courage to fight hegemony, and bullying with a gun was its essence.

Today, Japan has never had a chance. It can only drink the northwest wind in the future.

In another 10 years, Japan’s automobile industry will decline in an all-round way, and we will not even let go of the industrial mother machine. At that time, Japan will have no chance

China is not only the global R & D center and new energy center, but also the world’s largest market. At the same time, China has become a global manufacturing center with ASEAN, and the world has a new round of industrial division. This is a real new global order and a community of shared future for mankind. Europe can still cooperate and win-win with China. Where is Japan?

I can’t find it.

Therefore, Japan might as well take a chestnut out of the fire and make Ukraine by itself.

The difference is that in the Russian Ukrainian war, ZELINSKY actually didn’t want to fight at the beginning. It was the war planned by the United States.

But in East Asia, obviously, Japan can’t wait.

We have always said that only when the world is good can China be better.

This is not an empty word, but our sincere words. For example, this year, our exports to the EU reached 1.45 trillion, and the trade surplus actually reached more than 600billion. In fact, this is not good.

I don’t know that in another 10 years, we have become the global new energy center, the chips have been completed, large aircraft have been mass produced, domestic products have risen in an all-round way, and European luxury goods can’t be sold. How can we continue the trade.

Bilateral trade has become unilateral trade.

It’s the same as 500 years ago. You can only exchange silver for porcelain. Europe has nothing.

Therefore, we earnestly hope that Europe can still fight for breath, get rid of the control of the United States, develop well, and cooperate with China for win-win results, rather than:

Give you a chance, you are useless!

There are still opportunities for Europe in the future. Whether to eat meat or drink soup in the future depends on their standing in line and attitude.

As for Japan, Japan has identified itself and wants to learn from Ukraine.

Isn’t Ukraine’s positioning in Europe the womb of Europe? Then Japan is Asia

At that time, Japan and Ukraine will have two females and unify the world. We can look forward to this day.

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