Source: a bad potato (ID: iamhtd)
If you understand the layout of the global chip supply chain, you will understand why Biden is thinking about
Semiconductor Alliance
It is urgent to let relevant semiconductor enterprises from Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea set up factories in the United States.
Because the United States is very clear,
At most in the next five years
China will show the superiority of military force in the Asia Pacific region,
The United States will be squeezed out of the Asia Pacific region
Yes, I lost Japan and Korea.
Once Japan and South Korea are lost, there will be no suspense about the Sino US science and technology war. When the United States wants to encircle China again, will China say that you are joking? Six supply chains, I have absolute advantages in three, and one is equal to you. What do you use to block me?
Part I: understand the global layout of the chip industry chain in the whitest vernacular;
Part II: 72 years ago, we were 1vs16. In today’s science and technology war, we are 1vs200;
Part III: looking at the Taiwan Strait issue from the chip supply chain, why is it not the best time?
Part IV: from the perspective of the Asia Pacific region, why will the science and technology war be reversed immediately after Japan and South Korea get rid of control;
Part V: from photovoltaic, automobile, and chip
Part VI: choice determines fate. Japan has almost reached the peak of global science and technology;
01
Many friends still think that if Wutong Taiwan takes down the power of TSMC, we can completely independently produce 5nm or 3nm chips.
Is that so?
Let me put it this way. If it is really so simple, Pelosi will not dare to visit Taiwan at all. Otherwise, Taiwan will be liberated on August 3, and we have won the science and technology war without any suspense….. At that time, it will not be the United States that encircles China, but China has the ability to encircle the United States
But where can it be so simple?
What is the manufacturing process of the chip and what is the global layout?
I say in plain English, it’s three steps.
Step 1; Chip design company
(e.g. Huawei) use EDA software to make chip design scheme and entrust chip OEM
(such as TSMC) for production;
Step 2; According to the scheme, the foundry uses production equipment (lithography machine) and semiconductor materials to produce semi-finished products, which are also called wafers;
Step 3; The chip foundry will hand over the wafer to the sealing and testing company (such as Changdian Technology) to complete the final processing and complete the chip production.
There are six roles in these four steps, which constitute a preliminary and complete supply chain of chips.
The upstream chip design company and EDA software company are responsible for completing chip design.
The midstream chip foundry, production equipment (lithography machine) and semiconductor materials are responsible for the production of wafers, which are the main materials of chips.
The downstream sealing and testing company is responsible for obtaining the wafers and completing the final production.
Then, what is the international pattern of these six links?
Chip design companies, such as Qualcomm, Apple’s own chip design company, Huawei Hisense “Qilin” in China, and MediaTek “MTK” in Taiwan, China, all belong to this category;
Note: Qualcomm is a relatively pure chip design company, while Apple is a comprehensive company, that is, it not only designs chips but also designs its own mobile phones. Huawei’s comprehensive business scope is broader, and even the base station has been built
Many people say that the United States is better at making chips than China, and Qualcomm is far better than Huawei. Is that right?
I’ll tell you the answer later.
EDA software company, without EDA software, chip design company can not work. This is a basic tool;
EDA design software is basically provided by Synopsys, cadence and mentor in the United States
Monopoly: several enterprises in Chinese Mainland are catching up with each other. The representative ones are Huada Jiutian and Guangli microelectronics. However, they started late and there is still a big gap;
Chip foundry is the main wafer for manufacturing chips;
In this field, Taiwan, China’s TSMC is the only one, accounting for more than 52% of the global market, and the yield rate is far higher than that of other companies, so it has a strong advantage;
Next:
Samsung of Korea, with a market share of 17.4%,
Taiwan, China united power, with a market share of 7.1%;
American lattice core, with a market share of 5.5%;
SMIC, with a market share of 4.7%;
…….
But we can’t just look at the market share. We also need to look at the computing power of the wafer. We generally use nm “nanometers” to express the computing power. At present, TSMC and Samsung are tackling 3nm chips, while SMIC still has a certain gap. At present, it can produce 14nm chips;
That is to say, in this field, Taiwan, China + South Korea can almost form a monopoly advantage;
The production equipment, in simple terms, is the lithography machine. In this field, Dutch ASML can form a monopoly on the lithography machine in the high-end chip field.
The United States and Japan also have some lithography machines, but they have no say in the high-end field.
Followed by semiconductor materials;
There are about 20 kinds of semiconductor materials, including silicon wafer, electronic special gas, photomask and photoresist;
In many aspects of this field, Japan is very strong and has great advantages in 14 of the 20.
For example, silicon wafers, which are the main semiconductor materials, shinyue chemical and Shenggao of Japan, account for 50% of the global market share;
In photoresist, Japan monopolizes more than 70% of the global market;
Japan also monopolizes nearly 80% of the market in the production consumables such as special plastic plates, ceramic plates and welding lines;
Finally, seal test and complete production.
In this field, Taiwan, China accounts for 44%, Chinese Mainland 20%, and the United States 15%;
That is to say, China and the United States account for nearly 80% of the global market;
The above is the overall market layout.
Well, from the perspective of TSMC, to put it simply, when TSMC receives a chip order from Huawei and manufactures chips for Huawei, it needs Dutch lithography machines and Japanese semiconductor materials before it can complete the production of wafers and finally seal the test.
So, when we get TSMC, can we produce chips?
Obviously not, because the upstream will cut off power supply to TSMC
In fact, even though we just said that ASML in the Netherlands monopolizes the lithography machine, if the Netherlands agrees to buy ASML one day, can China monopolize the lithography machine?
Unfortunately, the lithography machine is a collection of the world’s most advanced technologies, such as the light source equipment of the United States, the Zeiss lens of Germany, and the optical technology of Japan. It requires at least 80000 advanced precision parts. The Netherlands can only produce up to 8% of them, and the remaining 92% need to be imported from the whole world.
If you let the Netherlands produce the lithography machine independently, the Netherlands can only catch a blind eye.
Even if we have acquired ASML, the United States once again blocked us and let all suppliers cut off supply to us, then we still cannot produce a lithography machine
In other words, chips are the result of the joint efforts of the global supply chain.
So, with these understandings, let’s look again. Is Huawei inferior to Qualcomm in chip manufacturing? Is the scientific and technological strength of Chinese companies inferior to that of the United States?
Huawei Hisense of China designed 5g chips two years ago, but Qualcomm of the United States is still not able to
Under the conditions of obtaining the same process wafers from TSMC, the computing speed of Hisilicon chip is no less than that of Qualcomm.
Hisense is only a department of Huawei, that is to say, one department of Huawei is stronger than Qualcomm.
Huawei not only designs chips, but also produces mobile phones, communication equipment, and base stations… These functions are not available in Qualcomm
The problem now is that Huawei can’t get raw materials, and Qualcomm can get as much as it wants… So many people say that Huawei’s ability to make chips is not as strong as Qualcomm’s
In this part, we review the chip supply chain:
Chip design company:
China, America and South Korea
Top three
The United States has a slight advantage (mainly because Apple’s design ability is really strong at present)
?
EDA software:
U.S.A
Occupy the global absolute monopoly position;
Chip manufacturing company (wafer):
In a high-precision process,
Taiwan, China, China
and
the republic of korea
Almost monopoly,
Taiwan, China, China
Global leader;
Semiconductor materials:
Japan
Occupy the absolute leading position in the world;
Production equipment (lithography machine):
Netherlands
Occupy the absolute leading position in the global high-end market;
Seal testing company:
China, Taiwan, China, USA
a situation of tripartite confrontation.
02
What is the Sino US science and technology war?
In the chip field, in fact, the United States coerced all suppliers to cut off supply to Huawei.
If the door is closed, can Apple make a mobile phone?
We can’t make any of them. To be extreme, apple is a mobile phone design company. All mobile phones are made by Foxconn
Apple also does not have the ability to produce chips, but only has the ability to design chips, which are manufactured by TSMC.
Why do people think that the United States is stronger than China?
Because the United States is not stronger in science and technology than China, but is stronger in force than China at present. The United States has more than 200 military bases in the world, and can use force to coerce almost all countries except China, Russia and India
Whoever dares to supply Huawei will be dealt with by the United States.
Therefore, in this science and technology war, it is not a game between China and the United States at all. Our opponent is not just the United States
We are not compared with any other country. Our competitors are:
U.S.A;
In addition, American colonies such as Japan, Germany, Canada and so on;
In addition, the United States can use force to coerce countries such as South America;
In addition, countries that envy and hate China, such as India;
In addition, our unworthy descendants, such as the frog poison force represented by Cai ni
To put it simply, 72 years ago, we chose 16 out of one to resist US aggression and aid Korea. Today, in the Sino US scientific and technological war, we choose 200 out of one;
Our competitors are not the United States, but foreign countries!
If you ask which country in the world has a strong chip manufacturing capacity, it is actually China. If everyone closes the door, China can independently produce military chips and some low-end civilian chips. However, no country in the world has such an independent capacity.
Because sometimes we often say that even every screw is our own… Other countries simply do not have such demand, which is the product of globalization.
However, our competitors are not any country, our competitors are foreign countries.
China can produce 28nm chips and foreign countries can produce 3nm chips.
03
Therefore, after understanding this, we can look at the Taiwan issue again. Why do we say that Wutong is only one of the choices, but it is not the best policy, and now is not the best time, because Wutong is really needed. It is very simple. One day is enough. The United States will definitely not send troops. The problem lies after Wutong.
There are two pillar industries in Taiwan. The first is the fraud industry we mentioned last time. After the deep | thunder hit, the data written in the road of crazy internal investigation by Taiwan fraud groups is that there are 100000 people engaged in the fraud industry in Taiwan. However, according to the latest report of the Taiwan media, it is estimated that at least 200000 people are engaged in fraud. Cai Ni does not want to manage it, nor can he manage it, because the maximum number of Taiwan’s prisons can only be 60000
In addition, Taiwan’s gangs have at least 300000 “employed” people
After Taiwan’s return to China, this industry must be wiped out, because such a bitch as Cai Ni will do so.
The second is the semiconductor industry. The direct employment population is 300000, and the indirect employment population is definitely more than one million. After Wutong, the United States will certainly cut off the supply to Taiwan. Then, TSMC will not get the lithography machine nor the consumables, and will be stagnant.
Other enterprises such as MediaTek and ITU are in trouble
As a result, Taiwan’s two pillar industries have disappeared
What’s more, TSMC has a market value of US $453.9 billion, and it is the largest one, accounting for almost 30% of Taiwan’s stock market. Many of the remaining high-quality enterprises are also closely related to TSMC.
The stock market is about to collapse and the economy is in crisis.
At the same time, the iron curtain of the cold war immediately opened, the United States imposed comprehensive sanctions on China, cut off foreign trade supply, and confiscated overseas assets. We may face an unemployment rate of more than 100 million. What should we do?
Of course, we can carry it hard, but is this our best choice?
In the same words, the reunification of the motherland is a necessary condition for the great rejuvenation. The great rejuvenation is that China should at least become a developed country. Then we will only be reunified. What should we do next?
Of course, I am definitely not against Wutong here, because the dignity of the motherland is above everything else. Wutong is one of our necessary means. I just say that this is not the best way at present.
You will certainly ask: if the United States dares to do so, and China and the United States are decoupled, the United States will also suffer losses, and Japan, South Korea, and Europe will also suffer losses. Moreover, the United States will suffer greater losses than China. Is he not afraid?
Let’s just do it. Who’s TM afraid of?
I’m sorry to tell you that the United States has a trump card advantage. China really can’t win. The advantage of the United States is worse.
The United States says that 1 million people died of the epidemic. I don’t care. Dare you? Don’t mention the dead. If a pregnant woman miscarries, I will spray you to death
The United States says that I am a free America. The number of casualties this year is greater than that of Ukraine. Dare you? You can’t stand being beaten when you eat barbecue
The United States says that more than 10 million people take drugs, and 100000 people die of drug addiction every year. Do you think I’ve ever been afraid?
The United States said that last year the red neck occupied all the Capitol Hill. Did you see me blink?
…….
I said that the day when China and the United States decouple, that is, when the US empire collapses, the United States has to play like this, that is, kill 1000 enemies and commit 10000 suicides. But the United States says that I don’t care if it does not collapse. If it commits 10000 suicides, I will also make 1000 of you. Dare you compare with me?
China has said it’s OK. Don’t talk about it. You’re still awesome. I really can’t compare with you. Otherwise, how can you be the global hegemon.
However, on the other hand, it is almost impossible to say that Taiwan will automatically return to China. Cai Ni will only run to death on the road of betraying the country and seeking glory.
What should we do then?
Poor Taiwan, poor Taiwan? I can’t
Taiwan, China’s trade surplus with Chinese Mainland is 180 billion yuan. In the trade structure, mechanical and electrical products such as chips account for 55%, and boilers, machinery and mechanical parts account for 12.87%. In addition, organic chemicals and optical products account for 86% of the trade structure, which are difficult to replace
Of course, some favors to Taiwan should be abolished, but not to mention pineapples, all fruits together account for only 0.1% of the trade structure;
Fish, crab, seafood and so on, that is, 0.2%, vegetables add up to 0.02%;
We don’t care about these things. Why don’t we?
People don’t care. Do you think Tsai ing Wen will be worried if Taiwan’s fruit farmers can’t sell their products? Cai Ni smiled and said:
This year, 5000 of us were kidnapped to Cambodia. You see, I don’t even ask a question. My mother’s eyes don’t blink. It’s none of my business whether they die or not. You think I care about pineapples. Hehe… I’d better buy more poisonous pork from the United States
Therefore, poor and poor Taiwan can do it, but before the chip is conquered, the effect is very limited
04
Then what shall I do?
The United States can kill 10000 people and kill 1000 enemies, but does the United States dare to kill 100000 people and kill 1000 enemies?
In fact, in my opinion, the core of the Taiwan issue in the future is the science and technology war.
The trump card and the biggest chip that Taiwan can rely on at present are the Taiwan semiconductor industry and the semiconductor industry.
As we have just said, TSMC alone has a market value of US $453.9 billion, accounting for almost 30% of Taiwan’s stock market. Many of the remaining high-quality enterprises are also closely related to TSMC.
When is the best time?
It is the time to win the scientific and technological war and make breakthroughs in the chip field.
What I’m talking about here is making breakthrough progress. It doesn’t mean that China can make chips completely. Just as we used to say that “even every screw is Chinese”, it’s really too difficult. There are more than 1000 supply chain links and tens of thousands of extended supply chains. It’s really impossible for China to crush the world in these thousands of links.
For at least 30 years, I think it is impossible.
What we want is to get a balance of power in the supply chain of chips. When China’s supply chain can get a 40% advantage, or when some industrial chains have a rolling advantage, the time is basically ripe.
In the future, two aspects will go hand in hand.
First of all, we must be clear that the United States can encircle China not because it is stronger in science and technology than China, but because the combined science and technology of the regions that the United States can coerce is stronger than China.
After looking at the six major supply chains of semiconductors, we can understand that Taiwan is back. In the whole supply chain, we may not have achieved a balance of power with the United States.
But what if Japan and South Korea become independent? What about driving the United States out of the Asia Pacific region?
In the six major fields, we are almost equal to the United States in chip design. We have obtained rolling advantages in chip manufacturing, semiconductor materials and chip sealing and testing, and almost achieved monopoly. In addition, the industrial system of China, Japan and South Korea will be added. At that time, the Sino US scientific and technological war will be reversed in an instant, and a magical scene will appear.
Both China and the West have left half a project in the whole chip supply chain. No one is complete, and no one can make 3nm chips smoothly.
However, in terms of the integrity of the supply chain, the East wins over the west, because China has always been preparing to meet the siege of the US and western groups and has the most complete industrial system in the world.
This is what I said just now: there is no doubt that China has the strongest chip manufacturing capacity in the world, because China can independently produce military chips and 28nm consumer grade chips
The United States monopolized EDA software and the Netherlands monopolized the lithography machine, but it is not that we do not have it, but that our performance is not as strong as theirs.
As for the United States, there is no such thing as the United States. Because the American industry is a product of globalization and the supply chain is extremely incomplete, the entire Western world, especially after Japan and South Korea, has lost at least the 3nm chip standard, which can no longer be produced in any region.
What is the concept of China, Japan and South Korea? I can just say a few words. It monopolizes 98% of the global shipbuilding industry.
Therefore, what is the time ripe? That is what I said in my last breakthrough with China in the cold winter of the world. In the next three years, the war of attrition between China and the West. When the aircraft carrier 006 is launched in the future, China will have a crushing advantage over the United States in the Asia Pacific region, and the United States will withdraw from the Asia Pacific region. Subsequently, the scientific and technological war against China will fail completely.
Therefore, why does the United States attach great importance to the so-called Semiconductor Alliance now? The United States is very clear that the military situation in the Asia Pacific region is being reversed, and China is gaining regional advantages more and more quickly.
Once the United States loses Japan and South Korea one day, western groups in the United States can not even make chips. What will they do to contain China then?
Therefore, in the future, it will also be a game between Japan, South Korea and the United States. Japan is now a broken pot and a broken one, and it dallies while coping. South Korea really does not want to die, for fear of moving Samsung to the United States. Otherwise, the consequences will be very beautiful
Abe once made a lot of nonsense, saying that Taiwan has something to do, that is, Japan has something to do.
I would like to say that we should not look at the Taiwan issue in isolation. We do not just want to liberate Taiwan. Since we have said that we want the great unity of the people of the world, we must do what we say. We also need to support the Japanese people to get rid of the Colonial rule of the United States and help the Japanese people to become independent.
We said that the Chinese and Japanese people should be friendly from generation to generation, and we must do what we said. However, the prerequisite for doing so is to thoroughly liquidate Japanese militarism and to free Japan from colonial control.
Japan and South Korea, which have freed themselves from colonial control, are our good friends, and we will protect them
You may say that Japan is not willing to get rid of colonial control, and Japan is willing to be a dog. Last time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Japan was willing to be a vassal, and Japan said that I would not be a vassal of the United States. Could I be a vassal of China?
What can we do?
It doesn’t matter. We will respect Japan’s wishes. If it wants to be a dog, the dog is also a good friend of mankind. We can help Japan change its owner. It doesn’t matter who it is, but it can’t be an American dog
05
Let’s take another look at the second issue. The enhancement of military strength just mentioned just now is just walking on one leg, and the other leg is our continuous investment in the chip field.
We must be self reliant.
We may think that it is very slow. Many people know that it is impossible
Let me put it this way. Is China’s new energy represented by PV in a monopoly position in the world? But how long have we laid out photovoltaic?
Photovoltaic has been laid out for 20 years. In 2000 or so, how many people thought that photovoltaic was a scam?
What about the automobile industry? How many people in the auto industry think that we are hopeless? What should we say now?
In 1980, Japan exported 2.72 million cars, while China exported 0 cars, which was infinitely times that of China;
In 2000, Japan exported 4.72 million cars, while China exported 17000 cars, which was 277 times that of China;
In 2010, Japan exported 4.83 million cars, while China exported 540000 cars, 9 times that of Japan;
In 2015, Japan exported 4.42 million cars, while China exported 750000 cars, six times that of Japan;
In 2021, Japan exported 3.82 million cars, while China exported 2.01 million cars, twice that of Japan;
What about this year? There is a great possibility that China’s automobile exports will surpass Japan’s this year.
At the same time, as a proof, China’s automobile export will be twice that of Japan by 2024 or 2025.
It has taken nearly 50 years for China to catch up with Japan’s automobile industry. What about chips?
The chip was developed by more than 200 countries in the world over more than 70 years. It is only six years since China really started to complete the layout. If you want China to beat more than 200 countries in 70 years in six years, shuangwen dare not write that.
However, on the other hand, it has taken China 50 years to catch up with Japanese cars, and it will definitely take less than 50 years to catch up with global chips. Take Huawei Hisense as an example, it only took 7 years to catch up with Qualcomm!
But our problem is… There is only one Huawei
For most enterprises, who is willing to do such a big investment and high-risk thing like Huawei? Isn’t real estate speculation fragrant?
The good thing is that in 2022, the mission of real estate is completely over, and there is no need to fry. At the same time, with the support of the state, the attention and investment of chips are slowly rising.
In the next 10 years, science and technology enterprises will continue to emerge rapidly.
From 0 to 1 will be very slow, and from 1 to 10 will be very slow, but the acceleration from 10 to 100 will be faster and faster.
I didn’t find the overall data, but I know that only in Shenzhen, many venture capitalists began to invest in chip business. Just look at the data. On March 31, 2022, only the second phase of the big fund announced to invest in 38 companies, with a cumulative agreed investment of 79 billion yuan.
Among them, the chip manufacturing industry obtained a larger proportion of investment than the first phase, about 59.4 billion yuan, accounting for 75%; Integrated circuit design tools and chip design were about 8.1 billion yuan, accounting for 10%; About 7.5 billion yuan was invested in equipment, parts and materials, accounting for 10%.
In the next five years, we will have a smaller and smaller gap with the US western group in the independent R & D and manufacturing of chips.
Therefore, in the future, we will walk on two legs.
One is the independent research and development of chips, and the other is the strengthening of military strength, gradually pushing the United States out of the Asia Pacific region.
From about 2026 to 2027, the United States will completely lose its ability to encircle and launch a scientific and technological war against China in the field of chips, which will be a key node for us.
From this point of view, it may be that the initial time for rejuvenation is ripe.
06
Finally, I would like to say that as we all know, the Dutch ASML monopolized the lithography machine market, but 40 years ago, this was not the case.
At that time, Japan almost reached the peak of global science and technology.
At that time, the United States almost regarded Japan as its own son and gave it whatever technology it wanted. In international trade, it took the initiative to open up territory for Japan, and Japan also regarded the United States as its own father. It was a sincere filial piety.
In 1984, ASML was just born, and Nikon was the only company in Japan, accounting for half of the global lithography machine market! There is no ASML at all.
At that time, Japan did not only have lithography machines, but also took the lead in six fields!
Moreover, given another 10 years, Japan will monopolize the global chip supply chain.
Unfortunately, Japan began to clamor that it could sell Tokyo to buy the whole United States. Seeing that Japan had achieved great success, the United States began to take action. As a colony of the United States, Japan obediently handed over its core industry, destroyed its own technology, and transferred all the technologies related to the chip supply chain. South Korea took a large part of it. Today, only semiconductor consumables are left in Japan, Nothing happened in Japan.
Four years ago, trump launched a science and technology war against China, and comprehensively sanctioned Huawei. This move of the United States made the Japanese stay happy.
They shouted, “Daddy is mighty!”!
Unfortunately, China and Japan are bound to make different choices.
70 years ago, Japan chose to kneel down as a dog, and the whole country was a comfort house, serving the American father perfectly. However, China resolutely chose the heroic expedition in the face of the world’s strongest 16 nation allied forces!
Today, faced with the blockade of the United States, Japan has unquestionably chosen to yield, and the Chinese enterprises represented by Huawei said:
Except for victory, we have no way to go!
Choice, has decided the destiny!