The article was created by the “Blood Drink” public account WeChat: caojianming1989
According to Xinhua News Agency, on September 8 local time, President Zelensky of Ukraine announced that Ukrainian troops had counterattacked in the east and south of the country, recapturing more than 1000 square kilometers of territory including Barakleya and more than 20 villages. In addition, the Moscow Times reported on September 8 that the Russian army had withdrawn from Barakleya on September 8.
A stone stirs a thousand waves. Relevant reports instantly ignited the global public opinion. News on the Internet, such as Russia’s imminent collapse, Kadyrov’s departure from Putin, Moscow’s entry into a state of emergency, and the parliament’s call for Putin to step down, were flying everywhere, as if the results of Russia’s special military operations were destroyed overnight, Putin’s political life was about to end, and the Russian regime had been in turmoil, The Zelensky regime is about to usher in a comprehensive strategic counter offensive under the support of the powerful intelligence system of the United States and the West.
Opinions vary. So, what is the truth? Let me display the evidence one by one, and peel off the cocoon to restore the objective facts.
[The military truth of Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive]
The geometry of Ukraine’s victory and the rout of Russia need to be comprehensively analyzed in terms of the occupied area, the ratio of war losses between the two sides, the essence of the tug of war and the strategic position, respectively, as follows:
1? Occupied area.
This time, Ukraine captured 20 towns in Kharkov, about 1000 square kilometers, which is about the same area as Gala Township, which is under the jurisdiction of four administrative villages in Shigaze City, and Huanghekou Town in Dongying, Shandong Province.
How much did Russia liberate in Ukraine? 130000 square kilometers, equivalent to the size of Fujian Province.
Compared with the occupied area, 10000 square kilometers and 130000 square kilometers are just like sesame and watermelon. To put it figuratively, the 1000 square kilometers captured by the Ukrainian army is just a watermelon seed plucked from the 130000 square kilometers of land.
The green area in the figure is the 1000 square kilometers area occupied by Ukraine
The red dot in the picture is the 1000 square kilometers captured by Ukraine
2? Battle damage ratio.
In the major victory of Ukraine advocated by the western media, Russia sent out air and space forces and strategic rocket troops to attack the chasing Ukrainian army while withdrawing, killing 2000 Ukrainian Nazi armed forces and foreign mercenaries.
On the one hand, Russia retreated with non-contact tactics in order to preserve its effective strength, and on the other hand, it beat and chased the Ukrainian army. This conclusion can be summarized as follows: Russia retreated with orderly tactics, and Ukraine chased with blood in panic!
3? A seesaw battle.
From the scale of the campaign, this was just a common tactical confrontation on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield. The victorious side of any war cannot always win from beginning to end, and it is simply normal for both sides to repeatedly engage in local wars.
Take the Syrian war as an example. At the beginning, ISIS and the Russian Syrian coalition repeatedly fought for areas including Aleppo, Palmyra, and Deerzur. Palmyra was repeatedly captured by terrorists and the Russian Syrian coalition in 2016. Did the terrorist attack on Palmyra represent a complete rout of the Russian army towards Syria?
4? Strategic location.
In many military analyses, the position of 20 villages captured by Ukraine as transport hubs has been emphasized all the time. In fact, North Lichansk, which is close to Kharkov in Donbas, is the most important transport hub in the region. This is the east gate to enter Donbas region. It has been liberated by the Russian army since early July. The Russian army is killing 10000 Ukrainian troops in the region, and it is from here that the Kharkov campaign was launched. These 20 villages are far less important than Lichangxisk region, and their strategic location is even less important than Mariupol and Donetsk in Udong region.
[Truth of Strategic Counterattack]
Strategically, if the Ukrainian army wants to turn the war situation in the east against the wind, it must control more than two of the numerous fortress cities, such as North Donetsk, Donetsk, Maliupor, and link these fortresses together to form a continuous and effective military line, and rely on these military lines to continue to advance towards the eastern Russian Ukrainian border, which can be regarded as a real strategic counterattack. For example, the Battle of Kursk and the Battle of Aden launched by Nazi Germany can be regarded as strategic counterattacks.
So, does Ukraine meet the above conditions at present? None.
Zelensky said that the core of eastern Ukraine was the Donbas region when launching the eastern counter offensive, but this time Zelensky captured the region in Kharkov, not the Donbas region. Therefore, the true success of the eastern counter offensive is a lie.
In fact, as early as July this year, Donbas had been liberated. The strategic strongholds in Donbas, including Mariupol and North Donetsk, are still completely controlled by Russia.
In fact, in addition to 2000 people killed by the Ukrainian army in Kharkov, more than 4000 people were killed by the Russian army in the suburb of Nikolayev. The Uzbek army also used to attack from the east on all fronts with common sense, but because it was unable to control multiple fortresses, it was unable to form a coherent military line, and it was unable to rely on continuous military lines to advance eastward in an all-round way, so it naturally could not form a real strategic counter offensive. As long as the core city of Donbas in the eastern core region is firmly in the hands of the Russian army, Ukraine will never launch the so-called strategic counter offensive in the east. Looking back, those who said that the achievements of Russia’s special military operations in the past six months had been destroyed overnight, I think that these people not only could not understand maps, but also did not even have basic military knowledge.
[What is the probability of strategic counter attack]
Is there any possibility of a successful counteroffensive in the future for the Ukrainian Zelensky regime, which continues to strengthen NATO’s blood supply? From a rational perspective, success depends on the following four factors:
1? Tactical literacy.
In the process of withdrawing from near Kharkov, the Russian army was covered by the fire of the air and sky army and the strategic rocket army. Even though the retreat was still stable and orderly, in contrast, the Ukrainian army still forcibly seized villages without air support, but exposed to the fire of the Russian army resulted in more than 2000 deaths and injuries. How ironic is it that the loss of “victorious” Ukraine was greater than that of “defeated” Russian army? How about the tactical accomplishment of the two armies.
2? Strategy.
Ukraine is located on the largest Pot Plain in Europe, where everything is flat. The mechanized operation of large armies is the strength of the Russian army. At present, Ukraine has completely lost its air force and navy. The US military has repeatedly reiterated that it will not intervene in the Russian Ukrainian war. In the future, Ukraine will not have any possibility of regaining its airspace. The Russian army also has the power to control electromagnetism, sea and air. Under the operation of the Russian mechanized regiment, the Ukrainian army exposed on the plain is just a living target.
In this campaign, although the number of Ukrainian troops was 8 times that of Russian troops, they were still killed by Russian air and space forces and strategic rocket troops on the way of attack, contributing the most casualties in the whole campaign. This tactical level is really worrying!
At present, the Russian army has sent all the three swordsmen of strategic bombing, including Figure 160, Figure 95 and Figure 22, to the Ukrainian battlefield. As long as Putin is determined to copy the tactics of the US military in the Iraq war, the Zerensky regime will soon collapse.
3? The hearts of the people are in the opposite direction.
The Russian army has received full support from ethnic minorities in eastern Ukraine, including Russian Ukrainians. On the one hand, Putin signed an order to admit a large number of refugees from eastern Ukraine and provide comprehensive humanitarian relief for the liberated areas; on the other hand, the Nazi massacre policy of Ukraine pushed the people to Russia completely.
Facts have proved that the Zelensky government is really a thief. After seizing 1000 square kilometers of land in Kharkov this time, the Ukrainian army began to send Nazi armed forces to comprehensively check the Uedonian people who became Russian nationals during the occupation and who “colluded” with Russia. At present, the Ukrainian Nazis have begun to execute the Ukrainian people who support Russia locally. Now, the inventory is to screen the local Ukrainian people for mass slaughter.
The Ukrainians committed the Odessa Massacre in 2014, where they burned a large number of Ukrainians. From 2014 to 2022, the Ukrainians slaughtered 14000 Ukrainians, including children. The Nazi massacre triggered the resistance of local Ukrainians, which led to the establishment of two republics, including Dunbas. The two republics of Ukraine were forced to be established under the Nazi butcher’s knife of Ukraine, which was the political choice of the local people to resist the Nazis.
At present, although the war situation of Zerensky is unfavorable, the implementation of the policy of killing has never stopped. In addition to killing local Ukrainians, a large number of Ukrainian anti war soldiers have also been killed. In contrast, the children of powerful people in Ukraine were able to avoid military service and continued to live and dream in the capital Kiev.
From a series of Nazi misdeeds from 2014 to 2022, it can be seen that Zerensky, the Nazi government led by Jews, completely copied the routine of Jewish capital that helped Hitler to establish Nazi Germany in Germany. Therefore, Nazis and Jews have never been antagonistic, but are synonymous with each other. The real meaning of Nazism is Jewish Nazism.
As long as the Nazi massacres in eastern Ukraine continue, the people in the eastern region will continue to turn to Russia. Although the change of popular sentiment cannot be reflected in the battlefield in an instant, it will comprehensively weaken the economic and personnel supplement of the Ukrainian Nazis from the local area, and also lay a political foundation for Russia to establish a Ukrainian coalition government in the future.
4? Energy and economic support.
During the Russian Ukrainian war, many people followed the western media and questioned whether Russia could persist. What I want to say is that, from another perspective, how long can Ukraine last?
In addition to tactics, whether a country can resist for a long time depends on whether its national economy can continue to provide war resources. So, can Ukraine’s economy support Zerensky’s long-term war?
At present, the Ukrainian economy is close to complete collapse. In addition, power, energy and vital food that affect Ukraine’s people’s livelihood have been completely controlled by Russia.
Let’s start with electricity. On September 12, the second day of the so-called “victorious counteroffensive” of Ukraine, Russian air raids on power facilities throughout Ukraine led to power outages throughout Ukraine, and the Ukrainian national air defense early warning system was completely suspended. In those years, the American air attack on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was to destroy civil electricity to break the resistance of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Now the Russian army is just giving back to its people in its own way.
After the power failure, the water supply was also interrupted. In the face of the embarrassing situation that the Russian army was almost unscathed and the country’s water and electricity were paralyzed, what was the sense of achievement of the Ukrainian army in the eyes of public opinion when it launched such a successful counter offensive?
After the destruction of electricity, the revenues from Ukraine’s hydropower exports to Europe went out of business, which further worsened Ukraine’s finance. The Russian army has mastered the air supremacy of Ukraine. In the future, it can bomb whenever and wherever it wants, so that it can accurately disintegrate the will of any region within Zerensky’s basic territory.
Energy. Ukraine has almost no oil and gas resources, and its source mainly depends on the oil and gas pipelines from Russia to Europe. In another month, winter will come. This winter is very likely to cause extremely cold weather due to La Nina phenomenon. If Russia, like Germany, closes the oil and gas pipeline to Ukraine, then the Zerenski people will be frozen into ice.
In terms of strike effect. The base camp of Zerensky is in the west of Ukraine, where there is no heavy industry. Naturally, it is impossible to use the hot water produced by the factory for large-scale heating, let alone the disconnection of oil and gas pipelines. In contrast, in the Russian controlled area in eastern Ukraine, there are not only oil and gas pipelines in Russia, but also many large heavy industrial enterprises such as local coal. Industrial hot water can completely solve the heating problem. It is predicted that in winter, Ukraine will have a fantastic scene of the west frozen into ice lolls and the east warm as spring.
If heating cannot be solved, they can also be carried by burning firewood, and if they can’t eat, they will die. What many people do not know is that the eastern part of Ukraine is not only developed in heavy industry, but also the Dnieper River and the Donbas Plain are the largest grain producing areas in Ukraine. After special law enforcement military operations, the Russian army has controlled Donbas and Crimea, almost controlling more than two-thirds of Ukraine’s arable land and grain producing areas.
There is no food. In the case of Ukraine’s financial bankruptcy, it cannot be effectively solved through imports. Can we rely on handouts and aid to overcome the food crisis? In fact, the landlords have no surplus. After all, except for China and Russia, countries including Britain, the United States and Europe are experiencing overall poor harvests this year. Thus, the western part of Ukraine will fall into famine this winter. In contrast, the eastern region of Ukraine is completely self-sufficient in grain, and because of the eastern chemical enterprises, the supply of fertilizer next year is not a problem at all. As a result, a fantastic scene of hunger in western Ukraine and teething in eastern Ukraine was formed.
In the long run, this winter is not the end of the western nightmare. After the spring ploughing starts in March next year, while the cultivated land in the west decreases sharply, it will not be able to import fertilizer due to financial bankruptcy. Even if food is planted by luck, it is also a poor harvest year. With two consecutive years of poor harvest and the approaching of winter, people in the western region will have an unprecedented dissatisfaction with Zelensky, which will further divide the people and the Nazi regime. In the past, Zerensky and the Ukrainian army had a little disagreement because he refused to surrender soldiers because of the massacre. Now, once both the army and the people are dissatisfied with Zerensky, his political career will come to an end.
In contrast, after the outbreak of the war, Russia’s income soared, and at present, there are even signs of deflation due to the influx of large amounts of money. Energy exports soared, and more money was spent, which enabled Russia to achieve a virtuous circle of “war for war”.
To sum up, in the fields of energy, electricity, food and other vital areas, Zerensky has been pinched to death by Russia. Zerenski’s Nazi regime simply did not have the ability to carry out a lasting war with Russia. From this perspective, Russia’s dragging is a very wise strategic choice. Those who think that Ukraine will win the Russian Ukrainian war and that Zelensky is about to launch a strategic counter offensive are not only naive, but also extremely anti intellectual. They not only know little about the strategic tactics of the Russian and Ukrainian armies, but also have no substantive understanding of the strength of Russia and Ukraine.
[Operation of the Mystery of Withdrawal]
I understand that the so-called strategic counter offensive advocated by Zerensky is just boasting, and I also understand that Zerensky cannot win the Russian Ukrainian war in the long run. Then, new problems arise. Why did Russia choose to retreat under the premise of occupying such a big advantage? What is the deep strategic intention behind it?
01
Tactically block and control
The 20 villages and towns captured by the Ukrainian army are located near Kharkov. However, since the beginning of the special military operation, the main offensive direction of the Russian army has been located in the Donbas area. Therefore, Kharkov has not been the main offensive area of the Russian army. The Russian military strength in this area is seriously insufficient, resulting in the attack of the Ukrainian army being eight times that of the Russian army.
Another evidence of the shortage of local Russian troops is that the Uzbek army has started the so-called “counter offensive” since the end of July. It has sent more troops to attack the Donbas area, but the Uzbek army has not made any progress in the Donbas area where the Russian army is heavily concentrated. On the contrary, 4000 people were killed in Nikolayev. It was against this background that the Uzbek army gathered eight times its strength to attack the weak Kharkov area of the Russian army.
Since Kharkov is not the main target of the Russian army, why did the Russian army attack here? The reason is simple. Kharkov Ukraine is the only way to reinforce Donbas from Kiev, which is the northern strategic channel for Ukraine to reinforce Donbas. The Russian army’s operations in Kharkov are purely to cover the military operations in the Donbas area and prevent Kiev from reinforcing the main force of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas area, which is a typical method of blocking and fighting.
Reinforce the Donbas route from Kiev
The picture above shows the schematic diagram of the battlefield where the Russian army besieged and annihilated 10000 Uzbek troops in Lixichansk region in July this year
In fact, the Russian army has used this tactic before. After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, the Russian army quickly surrounded Kiev, containing the main force of the Ukrainian army to reinforce the front line of Donbas, and covering the Russian army’s capture of Donbas area. One month after Kiev was surrounded, in early April, the Russian army besieged more than 20000 elite Uzbek troops in the Yasu Steel Plant in Mariupol, the core city of Donbas. After gaining the absolute advantage of Donbas battlefield, the Russian army also withdrew from Kiev immediately.
If we clarify the tactics of the Russian army, we can see that the so-called war achievements made by Zerensky are not only very small, but also have no impact on the overall strategy of the Russian army. It is just a sneaky military operation when the main force of the Russian army is not playing in Kharkov. Even this sneaky operation has moved a force far more than 8 times of the Russian army’s strength, but it is still blown up in the end. It is said that the defeated Russian army retreated slowly, luring the eager Urumqi army out of the solid position and exposing it to the open plain, and then the Russian air force and the strategic rocket army gathered and wiped it out.
At present, the Russian army has announced the objectives of the third phase of military operations, namely, to capture Kharkov, Nikolayev and Odessa, and to open the strategic channel from Donbas to the coast of the Black Sea. The main objective of this stage is to further expand the strategic buffer zone of Donbas and force the Uzbek army to completely disengage from Donbas.
In this strategy, Kharkov will become a key offensive area for the Russian army. At present, Russia has begun to regroup its forces in the region and bombe Kharkov comprehensively. When the Russian army starts to increase its strength and gets the fire support from the air and space forces, the lost control area will be reoccupied. In the face of the enemy with absolute numerical superiority, how can we defeat the guerrilla policy of advancing and retreating, stationing and harassing, exhausting and attacking, and retreating and advancing?
02
Bridge differences politically
On September 11, Chechen armed leader Kadyrov publicly developed Twitter and said that he would retake Kharkov and other places in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin also said that the three goals of de Nazism in special law enforcement actions will be achieved on the premise of disarming the Nazis in Ukraine, which naturally includes the capture of Kharkov.
In many people’s eyes, Putin and Kadyrov’s statements represent the whole Russia, but in fact, there have been many people in Russia who have opposed the Russian Ukrainian war. In addition to playing tricks on a larger pro American public group than China, ordinary people also became dissatisfied with the Russian Ukrainian war because of the sanctions imposed on them, which led to protests one after another. For example, on April 2, a sit in protest against Putin’s Russian Ukrainian conflict broke out in 30 Russian cities. This dissatisfaction even spread to the Russian army. After the special law enforcement military action began on February 23, Hodalenok, a retired colonel affiliated to the General Staff of the Russian Army, believed that the quick war and quick decision of the Russian army’s main fighting faction was nonsense, and Ukraine would resist desperately, rather than welcoming the Russian army with bread sandwiches.
From the public to the public, and then to the military, Russia’s domestic view of the Russian Ukrainian war seems to be unified, but it is actually divided. This explains the so-called “contradiction” between Kadyrov and Putin. As an ardent supporter of Putin, on September 6, Kadyrov claimed that he might resign, while Putin said he “knew”. After Ukraine seized 1000 square kilometers of watermelon seed territory on September 10, Kadyrov delivered an 11 minute speech on September 12. In this speech, he fiercely criticized the poor performance of the Russian army and pointed out that the Russian army had made strategic mistakes. Kadyrov stressed that if the Russian army does not change its strategy and playing style, he will go to talk to Putin personally. It can be seen from this speech that Kadyrov was very angry and disappointed, so he publicly criticized the performance of the Russian army regardless of his identity and directly expressed his dissatisfaction.
Is Kadyrov’s public statement against Putin? Of course not. Because what Kadyrov said was to talk to Putin and reflect on the situation. Only the lower level would report to the higher level. So, what does Kadyrov mean by “reflection”? Naturally, it was the front-line situation that Kadyrov thought Putin could not see and that was enough to make Kadyrov dissatisfied. This naturally pointed to various negative fighting phenomena in the anti Russian Ukrainian war within the Russian army.
Kadyrov and Putin
Putin, as a president of the country, an important content is to bridge internal differences and unify internal opinions of the country. Kadyrov is clearly making trouble here, but in fact, he is fully supporting Putin’s hard line of launching special law enforcement military operations. The “contradiction” between the two is more like the demonstration of the internal compromise capitulators of the Russian hardliners. The reason why Putin did not support the hardliners before is that there is still some public support for the capitulators, and categorically supporting the hardliners will inevitably lead to the division of Russia, which no leader would like to see. Because of this, when Putin learned that Kadyrov was going to resign, he just said he knew.
Putin knows that a strong external reason is necessary for a country’s internal consensus. Now, Zelensky’s counterattack provides Putin with this reason. While Kadyrov criticized the Russian military strategy, the public opinion in Russia began to flip, and the voice of calling for a truce and peace on the Russian Internet began to reduce and disappear.
Because the great nation’s self-esteem of the fighting nation is not allowed to encounter military failure in a small country like Ukraine. Once stimulated by the outside world, the public opinion of the fighting nation will tend to revenge in an all-round way, and the tough proposition will again bridge the split public opinion.
The full support of the public will also mean that the Russian Ukrainian war will enter a new stage, that is, copying the tactics of the US military to comprehensively bomb the civil infrastructure in Ukraine. The 11th Russian bombing of electricity and civil facilities in Ukraine is a direct manifestation of this strategy.
It is common knowledge here that the Russian army has always taken NATO as its main target, so it has accumulated a large amount of weapons and equipment. Those who think that the Russian army bombed Ukraine with insufficient ammunition do not have any military common sense at all. At the same time, the Russian army does not need expensive long-range cruise missiles to attack civil power facilities at all. It can only use graphite bombs with low cost and quick results. If combined with cluster bombs, the strike effect will increase dramatically. Many of the bombs stored in the Russian army’s warehouse will expire. Now it is used for Zelensky to save the cost of destruction. Wouldn’t it kill two birds with one stone?
From the above series of analyses, the so-called strategic counter offensive advocated by Zerenski is just unrealistic propaganda, both tactically and strategically. At present or in the future, the Nazi armed forces led by Zerenski have no possibility to defeat Russia and recover eastern Ukraine. Historically, the current Zerensky regime completely copied the fascist route of the Ukrainian Nazi leader Stepan Bandra during World War II. During World War II, the Ukrainian Nazis led by Bandra became completely dependent on Nazi Germany. However, in terms of combat effectiveness, it can be described as “five dregs of war”. The combat effectiveness is not even worthy of lifting the shoes of Nazi Germany.
In those years, the Soviet Union not only killed the Ukrainian Nazis, but also completely wiped out Nazi Germany and occupied German mainland. The current Russian military power not only ranks the second in the world, but also aims to destroy the entire NATO. Moreover, Russia has far more force than the Soviet Union in 1945. Can’t it clean up the current Zerensky Nazi regime?
[The subtle node of advocating victory]
Here comes a new problem. It is clear that Ukraine took a small piece of land after paying a huge price. Why did the western media start such unconventional propaganda? Why did Zelensky’s so-called counter offensive begin as early as the end of July, but it has to be widely publicized at this time point?
Any event has a direct cause and a root cause. First, let’s talk about the direct cause.
The direct impetus of Zerenski’s military action came from Biden.
According to the Associated Press on September 2, US President Biden asked the Congress to provide another US $13.7 billion in emergency military assistance to Ukraine as the US funds to help Ukraine are about to run out.
In addition to military affairs, the United States also launched a simultaneous energy strangulation against the Russian economy. On September 6, two days before the Ukrainian army began to seize 1000 square kilometers of Kharkov, the US Deputy Minister of Finance, Jew Yellen, told the media that when setting the price ceiling for Western oil exports to Russia, the US would take the oil production cost estimated by Russia itself at $44 per barrel as the approximate import guide price.
When it was planned to limit the export price of Russian crude oil to 44, the United States and the European Union also studied the simultaneous price limitation of Russian natural gas. Therefore, with the unprecedented large-scale military assistance and financial strangulation in the United States, on September 8, the Jewish controlled social media began to fully cooperate with the strangulation strategy to launch information psychological warfare.
From the military strangulation on September 2 to the financial strangulation on September 6 to the public opinion strangulation on the military battlefield on September 8, these are all the echelons of the mixed war launched by the United States against Russia.
The strangulation against Russia has again alarmed China. Although the domestic public opinion environment has improved in recent years, we still have a gap in independent thinking. After the United States publicized the news that Ukraine had achieved the “Great Counter offensive”, some domestic media began to drift with the tide, making up some so-called war reports, making the masses think that the Ukrainian Nazis could occupy Moscow tomorrow and put the national flag in the Kremlin.
Whenever a major geopolitical event occurs, the United States will control the global mainstream media, and take the lead in issuing statements on behalf of the interests of the United States to manipulate the direction of public opinion. This is not surprising, because the war of public opinion and information is also a part of modern war. However, it is strange that some domestic bricklayers can indiscriminately copy Western media reports, and even some unattractive rumors can be absorbed word for word, As a result, he was often criticized. For example, during the Syrian war, Putin also announced twice that Russia was about to lose, which was interpreted by the United States, and the domestic media also interpreted according to the American statement. The result was that instead of withdrawing from Syria, Russian troops were driven out of the west and north of Syria; In November 2017, the Russian army clearly hit Abu Kemal on the west bank of the Euphrates River from the east bank of the Mediterranean Sea, and drove the American army to the east bank of the Euphrates River. However, the domestic bricklayers were obsessed with the idea that the United States and Russia were about to rule by dividing the river. As a result, in October 2019, the Russian Syrian coalition forces occupied six towns on the west bank of the Euphrates River. The United States was driven out of northeast Syria, and the bricklayers’ dream of ruling by dividing the river was completely broken.
The analysis and news released by the western media are just misleading the Chinese people to achieve the purpose of psychological information warfare that is conducive to western propaganda. Many brick media in our country have virtually acted as amplifiers of American psychological information warfare. It is said that these brick media have never bothered to study the war report, but have taken the national funds to act as accomplices in the American information war, which is not as beneficial as raising a pig! At least pigs will not become brick houses anytime and anywhere, but brick houses can become pigs anytime and anywhere!
[Full scale strangulation is starting]
From military, financial and information operations, the strangulation of Russia by the United States is no longer covered up. So why did the US military launch a full-scale strangulation of Russia at this time point in early September? The reasons are as follows:
01
In terms of time, winter is coming
The Northern Hemisphere will encounter extremely cold weather this year. This view has been confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization. On September 1, the World Meteorological Organization announced that the long-lasting La Ni ñ a phenomenon is likely to last at least until the end of 2022, becoming the first “three peaks” La Ni ñ a phenomenon in this century. Extreme cold will span the northern hemisphere for three consecutive winters. It is expected that the northern hemisphere will have extremely cold weather in the second half of this year. As expected, this winter will be the coldest season in the past decade.
This extremely cold weather will officially begin in September. After September 23, the direct sunlight point will shift from the equator to the Tropic of Cancer. At that time, the Northern Hemisphere will usher in a cold winter ahead of schedule. The problem facing Europe and the United States is how to strongly brush the “Russian copy of the approaching winter” in this winter.
So, can Europe and America brush past? The answer is very difficult! Because history has given the answer. In 1812 and 1941, Napoleon and Hitler, who had completed their own reunification, led 600000 and 5500000 troops, respectively, to brush a copy of Russia in the cold winter, hoping to occupy Moscow and defeat Russia. As we all know, the two European giants fell into the ice and snow in Moscow. Now Europe and the United States are beginning to follow the old path of Napoleon and Hitler, and the results are self-evident.
According to the script of NATO, they originally planned to launch a nuclear raid on Russia around June 22 this year, forcing Russia to recognize the fait accompli of NATO’s occupation of Ukraine before the arrival of this winter. As a result, Russia is better than others. Now NATO has not only failed to step into Ukraine, but has allowed Russia to stabilize the Ukrainian front before winter and forced NATO to recognize the fait accompli of Russia’s liberation of eastern Ukraine. If you lift a stone and hit yourself in the foot, you are talking about NATO.
After September 23, all European regions, including Ukraine and Russia, will gradually enter the “winter is coming” copy beneficial to Russia. At that time, the lifelines of water, electricity, food and energy in Ukraine will all fall into the hands of Russia, and no ground attack is needed. As long as the supply of natural gas, food and electricity is cut off, the western part of Ukraine will fall into famine in an all-round way. At the same time, after the loss of the source of income from water, electricity and food exports, Ukraine’s military expenditure and national finance will collapse in an all-round way, and after the deterioration of the relationship between the Ukrainian military and civilian and the Nazi government, Ukraine’s will to resist will be completely disintegrated as the temperature continues to drop.
The Russian Ukrainian war has been fought for more than six months, and the Russian winter will be six months from September to March next year. If Europe and the United States had some advantages in the first half, they would be completely passive in the second half. At that time, Europe and the United States will no longer face the stagnation of the Uedonian war, but the anti Nazi uprising in Ukraine. If Russia launches another large-scale ground attack in the next six months, the full surrender of the Zelensky regime will be within sight.
Perhaps it was precisely because of the approaching winter that the United States, which had mastered the battlefield climate and other information, could not wait to massively reinforce Zerensky at the beginning of September, hoping that the Ukrainian army led by him could regain the battlefield advantage in the east, and under the war of public opinion, vigorously advocated the overall defeat of Russia, shook the Russian military heart, frozen the current front, and won a respite for Ukraine. This attack for defense approach is a measure taken by the United States to mend the situation after the comprehensive failure of the Ukrainian strategy. However, it can play with the big trick of whistling at night, and success is impossible.
02
Pulling the Collapsing European Villagers
After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, Europe has always been the most favorable helper for the United States to sanction Russia. After all, most of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia. As long as Europe reduces or prohibits oil and gas imports, it can severely hit Russia. However, as early as September, Europe had begun to waver and had not provided military assistance to Zerensky for two consecutive months. There are two main reasons why Europe stopped its military assistance to Ukraine. One is that the cold winter is coming. In the face of the coming extreme cold weather, the import of natural gas required by Europe has already been greatly reduced. If you continue to offend Russia and cut off all the natural gas pipelines in Europe, then Europe will be greatly affected in all aspects of food, clothing, housing and transportation, and the internal pressure can be imagined.
In terms of living, if gas boilers and gas power generation in Europe are stopped, European people will not be able to get warm in the extreme cold and will inevitably be frozen into popsicles.
In terms of clothes, natural gas is also the main raw material for clothing fabric manufacturing. Seven out of every ten clothes in the world are made of synthetic fibers produced by oil and gas. Stopping the import of natural gas will severely hurt the world’s major clothing countries, including France and Italy.
In terms of grain, natural gas is the main raw material for fertilizer production. If there is a shortage of natural gas, Europe will face a serious shortage of fertilizer for spring cultivation next year, which will lead to a sharp decline in grain output in summer and a possible food crisis in winter.
The ban on the import of Russian oil and gas also directly affects the people’s livelihood in Europe. For example, France is unable to sterilize milk due to the shortage of natural gas, and the French milk factory is about to shut down.
The people are most concerned about the people’s livelihood, and this concern goes beyond the concern for geopolitics. After anticipating that their own interests were damaged due to their own sanctions against Russian natural gas, European people began to take to the streets to protest against Europe’s policy towards Russia. On September 11, people from many European countries, including Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic, took to the streets to protest against the soaring energy prices caused by the government’s sanctions policy against Russia. Public opinion in the Western political environment dominated by populism, in turn, will force European countries to change their policies towards Russia. This is why Europe has not provided military assistance to Ukraine for two consecutive months.
In addition, European economies have also been hit hard by the ban on Russian oil and gas imports. Germany, the world’s largest manufacturing power, has run a trade deficit for the first time this year. What is the root cause? The rise in energy prices has led to a sharp increase in imports. At the same time, the rise in the prices of raw materials has led to a decline in corporate profits. As a result, enterprises began to cut back on production. This year’s high temperature and drought climate has led to the stagnation of European shipping and a tight supply chain. At this time, the output of the manufacturing industry plummeted, but also because the supply chain tension led to export failure. As a result, imports increased sharply and exports decreased sharply, which led to a trade deficit.
In terms of monetary policy other than manufacturing, the European Central Bank announced an interest rate increase of 75 basis points on September 8. In my previous article, I said that Europe could not follow the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates, because raising interest rates would only further increase the cost of enterprise financing, which was extremely detrimental to the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises. Germany’s manufacturing industry was supported by small and medium-sized enterprises. Now, instead of cutting interest rates to help SMEs overcome difficulties, the European Central Bank has repeatedly claimed to raise interest rates five times. This financial policy, coupled with the sluggish manufacturing industry, has put the European economy in trouble again.
If European shipping will stop again in the extremely cold weather this winter, and natural gas imports will also decline sharply, then the euro will further depreciate, CDS credit default will be triggered comprehensively after the bankruptcy of any of the five European countries, triggering the European debt crisis 3.0, and Europe will fall into an overall recession.
Many people may have forgotten that it was in September 2014, eight years ago, that the European debt crisis broke out in Europe. It was the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2014 that triggered the European debt crisis. Eight years later, in September, Europe came to the eve of the European debt crisis again. History repeats itself again and again. I wonder if Europe can still learn from it?
The United States and Russia are not closely linked economically, while Europe is completely different. Almost all US policies towards Russia must be implemented by Europe in order to severely damage the Russian economy. Now, Europe has begun to waver due to public opinion overturning and energy difficulties. If we don’t shout at this time that our fellow citizens should not leave and hold Europe, then the United States will fall into strategic isolation. The only way to hold our fellow citizens is to win a big victory in the Ukrainian battlefield. Only in this way can Europe see hope. Under the huge interests, Europe will grit its teeth and continue to ban Russian oil and gas exports.
However, the Ukrainian army led by Zerensky is too hip, and cannot fight back in the Uedonian battlefield. What should we do? If there is no real victory, then launch public opinion to fabricate one. Anyway, the United States has long been a specialty in fabricating rumors since the beginning of washing powder. Why is it difficult to start the public opinion machine to fabricate rumors that Ukraine is about to launch a counter offensive? As a result, when Europe was about to enter the winter but not yet, the United States finally stepped up its efforts to lure Europe to continue to follow up and sanction Russia with the Zelensky counterattack, hoping that new opportunities would emerge before the winter.
03
Assisting in mid-term elections and coordinating with the Fed’s strategy
Outside Europe, the United States launched the strangulation of Russia in September for two reasons.
First of all, the mid-term elections in the United States have less than two months left. In terms of planting Trump, although the Democratic Party has achieved the result of Bannong’s voluntary surrender, there is still a long way to go before Trump can be put into the water and obtain “iron evidence”. At present, Biden’s support rate has lagged behind Trump too much. If Trump wins the Senate election, then the Democratic Party’s military aid to Ukraine and the existing hard line policy will be sniped by Trump on all fronts. Only by winning a decent victory in the Ukrainian battlefield can we win support for the next step of continuing the election.
Secondly, the Federal Reserve supported by the Democratic Party is launching the interest rate raising strategy of “low oil price+strong dollar”, the core of which is to suppress oil prices. At present, there are two core countries that suppress oil prices, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia. Russia has a huge influence on these two countries. Saudi Arabia even publicly challenged Biden after receiving Russian support. Therefore, to continue to suppress oil prices, it is necessary to cut off Russia’s influence on the above two countries. Saudi Arabia and Iran are located in the Middle East, which requires the United States to cut off the ties between Russia and the Middle East, and must drag Russia to the battlefield in Ukraine. As long as Russia is in the quagmire of war, it will not be able to send troops to the Middle East, which will help the United States weaken Saudi Arabia and Iran and gradually reduce the oil price.
The fiscal balance line of Russia is oil price above 69 dollars. Once the oil price falls below 40 dollars, Russia’s oil export will suffer a serious loss. If it falls to single digits, even if Western sanctions are lifted and exports are fully liberalized, Russia’s energy revenue will also drop sharply and its finance will collapse in an all-round way. This not only solved the problem of European energy supply, but also fulfilled the US strategy of financial plundering the world.
To sum up, a series of combined fists of the United States in early September were designed to mislead the world with public opinion debates, especially those of Russia’s allies such as China and Iran. They further tore public opinion and isolated Russia with false information.
[Strategic response of China and Russia]
What should we do in the face of this situation?
01
A new way of energy
The reason why European and American sanctions against Russia can threaten Russia is that Europe is the largest customer of Russian natural gas. It is precisely because of this magic weapon that Europe can point at Russia with impunity. Therefore, to divide Europe and the United States, it is necessary to change the status quo of Russia’s dependence on the European energy market.
Therefore, the most direct way to divide Europe and the United States is to build the Sino Russian natural gas pipeline. At the beginning of July this year, Gazprom said that in the first six months of 2022, the export of natural gas on the eastern route of China and Russia increased by 63.4%. On July 17, the pipeline set a record for single day transportation. While Europe is reducing Russian gas imports, China is rapidly eating up these surplus shares.
In addition, at the beginning of February 2022, Russian Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. signed the second long-term contract with PetroChina. The annual total gas supply of the eastern line of the natural gas pipeline will increase to 48 billion cubic meters. With the Russian “Siberian Power-2” natural gas pipeline and the “Oriental Alliance” natural gas pipeline passing through Mongolia, the annual natural gas export to China may increase by 50 billion cubic meters. In this way, Russia’s natural gas exports to China will increase by 100 billion cubic meters every year, while the total amount of Russian natural gas exports to Europe is 180 billion cubic meters every year. In the future, with the exploitation of Arctic, Sakhalin and other natural gas fields, Russia’s natural gas exports to China will gradually catch up with Europe.
As a result, increased cooperation between China and Russia will inevitably reduce Russia’s dependence on the European and American energy markets. Once Russia has a second choice, then Europe will compete for Russian energy for its own interests, which can solve the long-term dilemma of joint European and American sanctions against Russia.
Why do you say that?
Because behind the resource war is the competition for manufacturing capacity. Under the global competition of the manufacturing industry, if the demand for industrial natural gas in Germany continues to have problems, the manufacturing industry will inevitably flee. In fact, many German enterprises have begun to seek a new life. For example, large enterprises like BASF have also started to invest in China. This is the phenomenon of capacity transfer caused by European sanctions on Russian energy.
Silently, European production capacity fell into China’s pocket. Manufacturing industry is the source of national strength. For its own interests, Europe must solve the problem of energy supply. In the long run, it must ease relations with Russia, and finally achieve the effect of dividing Europe and the United States.
In addition, the expansion of natural gas import cooperation between China and Russia will also squeeze out the share of countries that are not friendly to China and Russia. For example, China’s first and fifth largest importers of liquefied natural gas are Australia and the United States, respectively. Russia expands its energy exports to China, and China follows the trend of reducing natural gas from the United States and Australia, while repairing the arrogant Australia and the United States. This is a typical case of fighting cattle across the mountain!
02
Tactically, break the game and win
At present, the international natural gas price is rising, which brings some troubles to China and Russia at the same time. For Russia, with the natural gas soaring more than 29 times, a large amount of money has poured into Russia, which has led to the trend of deflation in Russia. In this case, the sudden increase of wealth must find a new safe investment place. For China, if the price of natural gas rises, China will inevitably pay more foreign exchange reserves, which will weaken China’s ability to defend the value of the RMB.
In the face of their dilemma, China and Russia have found a win-win path: to settle the Sino Russian energy trade with RMB and Rupees. According to the Russian satellite news agency on September 7, Putin said on the same day that the Russian Natural Gas Corporation (Rosneft) and its Chinese partners had decided to pay for the supply of natural gas in rubles and RMB 50:50.
Before that, Russian exports to China were generally settled in euros and dollars. After the European and American sanctions, the US $300 billion Russian energy exports were frozen by the European and American countries. Now we use RMB and ruble for joint settlement, so Russia will get a large amount of RMB from its trade surplus with China, which will avoid the freezing of Russia’s income. At the same time, a large amount of RMB lies in Russian accounts, and can not invest in Europe and the United States, but can only buy Chinese financial products. Even excluding the RMB in Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, the major Russian banks have bought more than 1 trillion rubles of RMB this year alone, which will be even larger in the long run. In this way, the RMB earned by Russia from China will flow back to the bank account of China, which means that China has received a long-term stable loan while getting Russian energy. China can use this money for domestic investment, which is equivalent to having a stable long-term and huge international financial source.
In addition to energy trade, Russia is not a Chinese competitor in traditional trade at all. After the European and American sanctions against Russia, China’s cars, banks, daily necessities, etc. have taken a large number of European and American enterprises in Russia. Through traditional trade, China can earn all the money spent on energy import from traditional trade. In this way, the supply of Russian goods has greatly increased, and the foreign exchange income obtained has been deposited in the Bank of China for income, which can greatly alleviate the deflationary momentum that has emerged.
In terms of financial security, Russia has joined China’s RMB cross-border payment system. In the future, with the wide application of blockchain technology, China Russia financial transactions will be more secure and convenient. This financial settlement system is laid between China and Russia. Whoever wants to destroy this settlement system is equal to directly destroying Russian finance. In this way, not only the Chinese and Russian military will jointly guard, but also the top hacker organizations of China and Russia will understand how to jointly defend against the enemy. The integration of financial security in this context will comprehensively strengthen the China Russia alliance and build a community of economic destiny beyond military politics.
Throughout history, only when economic interests are highly integrated can the military and political alliance be unbreakable. Take the Russian French relationship as an example. Since 1860, France has invested abroad on a large scale, which is known as usurious imperialism. The largest investor is Russia. France formed a close interest alliance with Russia through a large number of loans. This led to the alliance between Russia and France during World War I and the anti fascist alliance between Russia and France during World War II. Even during the Cold War, France under the leadership of Charles de Gaulle had friendly relations with the former Soviet Union. Fundamentally speaking, this kind of friendly bond is the invisible financial connection.
If China wants to tie Russia firmly to the chariot, it must establish a highly integrated economic community with Russia. Only in this way can China get a pioneer in the anti western front, and Russia will also get a new source of industrial technology and a reliable back. It can be said that as long as China and Russia join hands, NATO will always be a paper tiger.
03
Strategically cooperate to defend the enemy
On September 10, just as Russia was preparing for the counter offensive in Kharkov, Chinese leader Li met with the heads of the five major Russian party leagues, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. Li visited Russia at a sensitive time and expressed his all-round support for Russia on behalf of China. Financially, Li said that China was glad to see that the Russian economy had not been destroyed by the US and Western sanctions. Politically, China fully understands and supports all measures taken by Russia to protect its interests in Ukraine.
It is not difficult to see that the above two statements have changed from China’s previous attitude. After the Russian Ukrainian war, China has maintained a superficial impartiality between Ukraine and Russia. When Europe and the United States questioned China’s provision of weapons and equipment to Russia, China made the first defense to clear the relationship and prove that it did not provide support to Russia. Now, China has clearly supported Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, and praised Russia for successfully defeating the economic blitz in Europe and the United States. These are all manifestations of China’s public support for Russia’s fight against Zerensky’s Nazi regime.
There are two main reasons for the change in China’s attitude:
One is Pelosi’s visit to the other side, which flagrantly trampled on China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. China’s support for Ukraine is based on the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity. China’s original interpretation of the West and its willingness to mediate the Russian Ukrainian conflict were also based on this principle. However, the United States says one thing at a time, which is a blatant violation of the one China principle. The double standard policy has completely angered China. Since you can trample on it, why should China care? It’s rude to come instead of going.
Another reason is that Zelensky set up a Taiwan working group to openly support Taiwan drugs, and even set up a representative office on the other side, trampling on the principle of China’s territorial and sovereign integrity. Everyone on earth knows that the issue on the other side is the bottom line of China. Zelensky knowingly committed the offense, which is well deserved in exchange for China’s current attitude.
If you touch the dragon against its scales, you will die. Since China kindly supports the reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, in exchange for the ingratitude of this Jewish beast, don’t blame me for my injustice! You make one, I make fifteen! It’s just my pleasure to support Russia in annihilating you Nazis who support Taiwan drugs!
In addition to politics and finance, China and Russia are also further strengthening cooperation in the military field. On September 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin inspected the Dongfang-2022 military exercise held in the Russian coastal border region close to northeast China. The Chinese ground participating troops demonstrated a modern army. In addition to the super powerful firepower output, the efficient and comprehensive logistics support capability stimulated the Russian team mates. China not only transported engineering communication and medical cooking equipment, but even put solar street lamps in the field barracks. At the same time, it did not forget to install a monitoring device. These were all completed in a simulated real combat state. The Chinese army inadvertently showed a hand, which greatly shocked the Russian military leaders, including Putin.
Logistics has always been a traditional crotch pulling project in Russia. During the Russian Ukrainian war, the Russian military lacked logistical support, and there was no logistics kitchen truck to cook. The soldiers directly cooked by open fire on the roadside, which not only attracted shelling, but also led the enemy to poison the food, killing many officers and soldiers. At the same time, because of the lack of communication support capacity, Russian soldiers openly took photos with mobile phones and uploaded social media, which attracted shelling after being captured by Ukraine. During the Russian Ukrainian war, the problems exposed by the Russian army were set off by the Chinese participating troops. In addition to logistics, China has now established the world’s largest and most advanced digital integrated battalion, and its super combat effectiveness dwarfs the Russian army.
At present, China and Russia have conducted equipment interoperability in military exercises, and the navigation systems of the two countries have also been merged to establish a joint command center. It can be said that the armies of the two countries can be integrated by changing their clothes and flags. Before the end of the Russian Ukrainian War, China once again demonstrated its strong military strength to Russia through the East 2022 Military Exercise, which will further strengthen Russia’s determination to confront and defeat the West.