Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
Since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, great changes are taking place in the global order!
There have been obvious games and shuffles at all levels, including politics, economy, military and diplomacy. The United States and Russia, Russia and Europe, China and the United States, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and the Americas have all adjusted their patterns and changed their strategic focus because of the outbreak and continuation of the Russian Ukrainian war and the inclusion of various elements such as energy, food, inflation, and currency.
This is probably the most intense adjustment of the world pattern since the drastic changes in Eastern Europe in the early 1990s. Almost all major countries and economies hope to occupy a favorable position in this global shuffle.
The United States hopes to maintain its global hegemonic status and regards China and Russia as its strategic threat. On the one hand, it supports Ukraine by igniting the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, it speeds up its return to India and the Pacific, draws Japan and South Korea, and forms gangs around China in an attempt to encircle China.
In addition, the United States also engaged in various diplomatic interludes in South Asia, destroying the diplomatic relations between China and Pakistan and other diehard friends through the color revolution; In the Middle East, it hedges the impact of the contraction of Russian energy supply by putting pressure on oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia.
The Russian Ukrainian war has become the fuse for the reorganization of the world order. Except for the siege launched by the United States and its loyal allies against China and Russia, most countries in the world have not followed suit in imposing sanctions on Russia or cutting off economic ties with Russia. Even many countries in South America, the backyard of the United States, dare to refute the face of the United States. They not only say no to the summit of the Americas, but also strengthen trade ties with China and Russia.
In the face of the strategic containment of the United States, China has not shown weakness. For example, it has participated in and led the post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan, established military ties with Pacific island countries such as Solomon Islands, conducted strategic cruise of aircraft carrier formation in the waters near Japan, and made positive contact with Australian military aircraft. At the same time, strengthen trade with Russia and actively reserve oil and grain; Promote the de dollarization of foreign reserves and increase gold reserves; And in the face of the pressure of the United States to pass on inflation, we should politely and prudently safeguard the interests of China’s economy.
During the war between Russia and Ukraine, Europe became the biggest loser
In the face of the comprehensive sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe, Russia fought a beautiful counterattack on the economic front, and forcefully turned the war into a business whose economic benefits can be automatically generated. With Russia’s crude oil being snapped up by other countries, energy prices are rising. The United States, which used to reap profits, is also suffering from rising inflation.
Originally, the U.S. arched the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in order to cooperate with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, complete the harvest of Europe and Russia, guide global funds to flow into the United States, and support U.S. economic growth.
At the beginning of the war, it was true that funds in Europe were trampled and collectively fled. The euro once fell to an all-time low, and the Russian Ruble also depreciated rapidly. But soon, with the Russian central bank taking a series of counter-measures, especially the introduction of the “ruble settlement order”, the decline of the ruble was completely reversed. With the continuation of the war and the sharp rise in oil prices, the ruble soon recovered its lost ground.
In Europe, however, there are a group of politicians who are not clear headed. They not only follow the United States in launching economic and financial sanctions against Russia, cutting off the energy supply channel, making the price level soaring, but also some countries continue to stimulate Russia’s sensitive nerves, such as Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO; Poland’s blatant involvement in the war between Russia and Ukraine is putting the security situation in Europe in a dangerous situation.
The United States thought it could bring down Russia by supporting Ukraine, but it did not expect that Putin could turn the tables through economic anti sanctions, making the conspiracy of the United States and Europe to bloodbath Russia through interest rate hikes and war come to naught. The Biden administration, which first implemented the oil embargo against Russia, had to turn to buying a large amount of Russian crude oil under the pressure of high oil prices and high inflation. Under the restriction of the ruble settlement order, some EU countries have to purchase crude oil and natural gas at high prices through third-party channels, further pushing up their prices.
At present, the initiative of the Russian Ukrainian war is still in Putin’s hands. Although NATO seems strong and needed, and there are signs of expanding its membership and even expanding east to Asia, EU countries without sufficient energy reserves can not get rid of the fate of being choked by Russia. NATO is just a behemoth that is strong outside and weak in the middle and does not conform to the new world order.
Japan and South Korea may fall victim to the return of India and the Pacific
After the Russo Ukrainian war entered the protracted war stage, the United States stepped up the pace of its return to the Indo Pacific strategy, aiming directly at China. Since Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan, the Biden administration’s goal of creating trouble in the Asia Pacific region, especially in the Taiwan Strait, has never stopped.
With the connivance of the United States, Japan’s Anti China momentum has gone too far. In a short period of time, Fumio Kishida has intensively carried out Kim won diplomacy, acting as a lobbyist for the United States and advocating the “Asia Pacific version of NATO”; South Korea’s Pro US President Yin Xiyue came to power and joined the intelligence agency of NATO. He was even the first to stand up and say that he would join the Indian Pacific Economic Framework IPEF led by the Biden government.
Biden also met with ASEAN leaders in Washington, and then opened an Asian trip to Japan and South Korea, and held a summit of the “Quartet security dialogue” mechanism between the United States, Japan, India and Australia; Subsequently, the Indian Pacific economic framework, including India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and major ASEAN countries, was established.
The United States also extended its black hand to China’s “the Belt and Road” layout in South Asia. It not only launched the color revolution in Pakistan, but also created riots and incidents in Sri Lanka and Nepal.
This means that the United States has formally formed a pattern of competition with China in the Asia Pacific region. But in fact, compared with Europe, the United States’ control over the Asia Pacific region, especially its core economic interests, is significantly weaker.
Compared with Europe, the geopolitical environment in the Asia Pacific region is more complex, and the starting point of these Asia Pacific countries’ alliance with the United States is to strengthen their own security and defense capabilities, rather than acting as the “pawn” of the United States against powerful opponents. This is the biggest difference from the NATO allies of the United States in Europe. Whether the United States wants to deploy military facilities in these countries and regions or uses economic interests as bait, it is difficult to establish a real alliance.
The most alarming thing is that Japan, with the support and connivance of the United States, does not hesitate to take risks to provoke China. Compared with South Korea’s scruples about China ROK relations, Japan has long regarded China as the biggest threat and a loyal lackey obedient to the United States. Japan is likely to become the biggest stepping stone next to the United States when China solves the Taiwan issue. It must be strongly deterred and targeted.
The new president of South Korea, Yin Xiyue, has made frequent Pro Japanese moves recently. He wants to improve relations with Japan, which is also an object that China needs to be vigilant against. When Biden strengthened the implementation of the “great power competition” strategy and the “India Pacific strategy”, Yin Xiyue cooperated with Biden in this way, and the relationship between China and South Korea is likely to be alienated.
However, if Japan and South Korea unconditionally support the United States and attempt to make dangerous moves on the Taiwan Strait issue, they will become victims of the big power game.
For India, this country is really good at speculation. On the one hand, India imports a large amount of crude oil from Russia at a low price, and on the other hand, it catches the fast train IPEF (Indian Pacific Economic Framework) of the US Indian Pacific strategy. No one dares to offend this duplicant. Judging from the multilateral diplomatic speculation strategy pursued by India, it is not a loyal ally of the United States, nor is it likely to become the most direct threat to China.
Changes in the Middle East, a key factor in energy prices
In the sanctions against Russia launched by the United States, many countries, including India, Pakistan and the Middle East, are impressive. Despite the pressure of the United States, India wants to import low-cost oil from Russia, but in fact, the performance of Middle East countries is even more impressive.
Since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Middle Eastern countries such as Turkey and Iran have explicitly refused to sanction Russia. OPEC led by Saudi Arabia has even taken the first step to abandon the petrodollar mechanism and no longer accept the data provided by the International Energy Agency.
The United Arab Emirates abstained in the United States sponsored resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of the United Nations, and crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates even said in a telephone call with Putin: “Russia has the right to ensure national security.” All this caught the United States by surprise.
Compared with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia is more direct. They also did not join the sanctions alliance against Russia. When Russia countered Western sanctions through the energy embargo, Saudi Arabia could have seized the share by increasing oil and gas production to help Europe and the United States tide over the energy crisis. However, when Biden called, Saudi Crown Prince Salman did not answer the phone at all, and turned around to plan how to use RMB to settle oil exports.
The oil producing countries in the Middle East did not increase the supply of crude oil under the pressure of the United States during the Russian Ukrainian war, which made Russian crude oil scarce under Western sanctions. Many countries, even the European Union countries, imported Russian low-cost crude oil directly or indirectly. Since the outbreak of the war, Russia’s energy exports have soared, and its trade surplus has also set a historical record. It can be said that the lack of OPEC production has become a divine aid for Russia in the war.
Finally, Putin said that he agreed to increase opec+ production to make up for the crude oil supply gap caused by Russia’s sanctions. Russia fully supports the opec+ production increase plan. US media said that the decision of opec+ to agree to increase production has enabled Russia to maintain its core position in the organization. It can be seen that the decision of the Middle East countries to increase oil production did not come from the role of the west, but from Russia’s acquiescence.
This fully shows that the US control over the Middle East is obviously weakening. In addition to vigorously assisting Afghanistan, China has also purchased a large amount of oil in the Middle East. From January to April 2022, China imported 170.89 million tons of crude oil at a cost of 116.1 billion yuan. Among the top 8 crude oil suppliers in China, five were from the Middle East, among which Saudi Arabia imported the largest amount of crude oil, exceeding the supply of Russia.
Latin America is eccentric, American backyard leadership is frustrated
The United States hosted the summit of the Americas again after a lapse of 28 years, hoping to take the opportunity to revive its “influence in the western hemisphere”, but it was boycotted by some Latin American leaders, including the president of Mexico, as well as by the American media and world public opinion.
The United States took the opportunity of hosting the summit of the leaders of the organization of American States (OAS) again and took the so-called “whether it is a democratic country” as the basis for classification. Before the summit was held, the United States announced early that it would not invite Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to participate in the meeting. This decision was immediately opposed by Mexican President Lopez, who said that if other countries were excluded, he would not personally attend the summit.
Later, Bolivian President Jose Arce, Honduran President Fidel Castro and Guatemalan President gamat successively stated that they would follow Mexican President Lopez and not attend the conference in the United States. Nicaraguan president Ortega directly and publicly stated that he was not interested in attending the meeting in the United States.
Biden announced the plan of the “partnership for economic prosperity in the Americas” at the summit, which is actually a replica of the “Indo Pacific economic framework” in the Americas. One of its core purposes is to counter China’s influence on economy, trade, investment and infrastructure in the region.
Data show that the total trade volume between China and Latin American countries except Mexico has already surpassed that of the United States, and the trade gap has gradually widened since Biden took office. Last year, the total volume of import and export trade between Latin America (excluding Mexico) and China reached nearly 247billion US dollars, much higher than 174billion US dollars with the United States. Products made in China are rising in Latin America, and China is also importing a large number of soybeans, corn and copper from the region.
The “partnership for economic prosperity in the Americas” program is not so much a copy of the “Indo Pacific economic framework” as a “Monroe Doctrine version 2.0”, that is, it attempts to revive the Monroe doctrine that “America is America for Americans” at a lower cost in the 21st century. Now that the US mid-term election is approaching, Biden just wants to use the summit to give himself and the Democratic Party extra points and campaign support.
In fact, due to the long-term unilateralism of the United States, many countries in the Americas are also very vigilant about its ingenious framework and initiatives. The so-called “partnership for economic prosperity in the Americas” will probably repeat the mistakes of the “Indo Pacific economic framework”. Some American countries only participate in form, but are not enthusiastic in essence.
The leadership and control of the United States in Latin America began to decline. On the one hand, the United States’ long-term adherence to Monroe Doctrine and unilateralism caused dissatisfaction among Latin American countries. On the other hand, the trade scale between China and Latin American countries has risen sharply and its influence has increased day by day, which has enabled Latin American countries to gain tangible benefits and benefits. At the same time, it is also a direct manifestation of the decline of American hegemonism.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
The Russo Ukrainian war has become the touchstone of American hegemony, which is directly reflected in the fact that after the United States launched a series of sanctions against Russia, the attitude of countries and regions towards Russia has obviously become more rational. Except for the so-called loyal allies of the United States such as Britain, Japan, Australia and Poland, most countries and regions have their own independent judgments about the attitude of Russia.
For example, despite the opposition of the United States, India purchased Russian low-cost crude oil on a large scale. Instead of increasing production under the pressure of the United States, OPEC countries in the Middle East began to make up for the crude oil supply gap after Russia agreed, and exported a large amount of crude oil to China.
In the Americas, Brazil reached a fertilizer supply agreement with Russia at the beginning of the Russian Ukrainian war; Russia recently announced that due to Western sanctions, Russia is studying the financial mechanism to replace the western system in order to carry out economic and trade cooperation with Latin American countries. In addition, China’s trade ties with Latin America are also deepening. All these have become catalysts for the centrifugation between Latin American countries and the United States.
Although the United States has shifted its strategic focus to the Asia Pacific region in an attempt to contain China, the “Indo Pacific economic framework” is just an empty shelf with little attraction to ASEAN countries, and its economic impact can not be compared with RCEP. As China occupies the core position in the Asia Pacific economy, and the United States is difficult to provide real interest protection to other countries in the Asia Pacific, the Asia Pacific countries have their own judgment on how to develop relations with China and the United States.
In general, the decline of US hegemonism is accelerating, and the world order is showing a trend of multi polarization and sound development. Most countries have realized that the United States is a destroyer of the global order, not a builder and perfecter. China is playing an important role in participating in and leading the establishment of the new international order, and is a firm defender and promoter of world peace and multipolar development.