Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (ID: hooyar_380097485)
In modern society, national competition has always been hidden behind market competition.
Where there is real liberalism, it is just a word game played by capital for deregulation.
In the past few days, I have been isolated from the hotel. I have read the hard core novel “great power heavy industry” again, which is about the development of manufacturing industry. Although there is an essential YY plot in the Internet novel, how China’s industry has been developing slowly over the years has been described in the book as objective and wonderful. After reading it, I have a new understanding of the real strength of China’s industry.
This year, many people have actually realized that life is not easy. As a writer said, “a grain of ash of the times is a mountain on everyone’s head”. But on the other hand, it seems that we are facing difficult difficulties. The heavy burden is like a mountain. In the times, it is really just a grain of ash.
If you put the perspective into a specific person from the personal perspective, the harm of the times or the sin is unforgivable, but from the perspective of God, it is only a test that must be experienced on the way forward.
If we give up the BBC and CNN style Hades filter and look at this year’s economy, is there only negative information?
According to customs statistics, in the first seven months of 2022, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports was 3643.07 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, exports were US $2062.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; Imports reached 1580.38 billion US dollars, up 5.3% year-on-year; The trade surplus was US $482.3 billion, compared with us $306.12 billion in the same period last year. The trade surplus in the first seven months of this year reached a record high.
This data is the result of the epidemic in Shanghai this year. What if there was no epidemic this time?
However, if we look at the PMI data of the manufacturing industry, many people will shake their heads.
In fact, the PMI dropped to 49% in July mainly because traditional industries were not as expected, such as textile and traditional rough processing industries.
Compared with traditional industries, equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries with good data are capital and technology intensive, and the employment population accommodated by the output value is far less than that of traditional industries. This creates another problem: the labor employment data is not good enough.
If we go back to the road of reform and opening up, let’s take a look at the countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh that followed us, and even the Latin American countries that were very prosperous in the 1970s.
Taking the demographic dividend as a bargaining chip, the development of traditional industries is definitely a powerful medicine to promote economic development in the short term. In the long run, the development of Vietnam, which is praised by many people, seems to be quite prosperous. However, those who have read the collapse history of Latin America will feel that the two are similar in honey.
Vietnam has not become rich yet, but the housing price has been speculation first. The processing industry seems to be flourishing, but the equipment manufacturing is extremely dependent on imports, strictly speaking, imports from China.
When the population dividend of such a manufacturing industry is almost enough, it will quickly turn into the debt crisis. The hot money from the country as a unit will stir up a lot of foam, and then the debt crisis will be created by puncturing the foam, leaving a mess in the end.
In the past, the four little dragons and the four little tigers in Asia were also sucked dry?
In the global trade played in US dollars, it is defined as a developing country. In fact, the real idea of others is that you can not develop and always stay at the bottom of the industrial chain. In this way, you can play the game of capital liberalization and absorb the wealth of one country and one place.
In fact, according to the circle of influence defined by the financial capital of the United States, the high-tech industry and high-end manufacturing industry are left to themselves, the financial service industry is held by itself, and the heavy industry can be distributed to Europe, Japan and South Korea.
The first purpose of this delineation model is to reduce the industrial population of the United States. Let’s look at the assessment method of the rate of return on assets played by Wall Street. If any enterprise does not meet the requirements, it will not get a high valuation, and the market value will not be much higher. Therefore, the capital will not have any interest in mixing, and the industry will either be exiled overseas or simply shut down.
I once wrote about the destruction of Boeing by finance. We should know that Boeing companies are all like industrial crowns. If there are such enterprises in China, can capital be allowed to play tricks on them?
Even the chip manufacturing industry, which we attach great importance to, is in fact almost an industry abandoned by local capital in the United States. If this is not the case, will it be possible for TSMC to develop? How did the Americans clean up Japan’s semiconductor industry?
Because TSMC is a capital intensive industry, each generation of new technology will double the capital investment of the previous generation. Once it fails, the company’s accumulation in the past decades will be zero.
If it weren’t for such a big hole and such a difficult road ahead, would Americans be willing to let go of the industry to make money? Why did Intel slowly give up its advantages? It’s not that Intel can’t do it, but that people don’t have to fight with themselves like this. The CEO is just a senior employee. The board of directors only wants to make money, so why take risks?
This is the final evil result caused by financial capital leading industrial economy.
Finally, only so-called manufacturing enterprises like apple, which have light assets and few workers, can prevail in the capital market.
Therefore, as long as Wall Street remains and the financing assessment mode of Wall Street remains, the United States can only go further and further on the road of deindustrialization.
In fact, the original situation in Europe is better than that in the United States. Europe’s own industry has a strong foundation. Although Europeans also like to play finance, the financial cake is so small that it can not be dried up by the United States. Therefore, European industry has been given more protection and preferential treatment.
It seems that there is often a question on the Internet: Why are Europeans so lazy but so developed?
The reason is that the manufacturing industry is strong. There are Airbus in Europe, many automobile factories, heavy chemical industry, and a large number of high-tech and cutting-edge manufacturing industries.
If you look at the European stock market, there is no comparison with the American stock market. Even Chinese enterprises are not interested in listing in Europe. The capital market is not active enough, which leads to the loss of the power of blind comparison of enterprise operation and management. Buffett can force the enterprise he invests to reorganize the board of directors and change the business plan according to his preference. This rarely happens in Europe.
Not long ago, the president of Volkswagen was dismissed because he wanted to engage in electrification and make new energy vehicles. If it was an American enterprise, the president would probably want to raise his salary. Because he called for reform, the stock price would surely rise. However, this reform moved tens of thousands of workers and countless upstream and downstream enterprises, and the president disappeared. This is another extreme example.
VW’s president is the victim of politicization, and the public will suffer from it.
Politics can cry all kinds of emotional pity on a worker who is unemployed because of making new energy vehicles, but the market will eventually be ruined because they do not embrace change.
Tens of thousands of people are unhappy and the enterprise finally loses everything. Which is more important?
If Europe can still maintain the sense of 100 years ago, this is not a thing. Unfortunately, Europe is now an emotional Europe, and short-term emotions are more important than everything else.
Recently, we all know that the war between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in energy prices in Europe. Europe could have avoided all this, but the political correctness is to support Russia and oppose Ukraine.
However, over the years, Europe has relied on cheap and low-pollution Russian natural gas to establish low-energy and low-pollution industrial manufacturing facilities. In turn, it can stand on the moral vantage point and accuse China of not being low-carbon and environmentally friendly.
Now, Europe has slashed the natural gas pipeline itself, causing the electricity price to soar ten times. Of course, this is good for China’s photovoltaic industry, but it is definitely a disaster to the industry.
Since last year, due to the soaring natural gas price, we can often see the closing of various European chemical plants. Now, even the giant BASF’s global chemical center in Germany will stop production. The corresponding news is that BASF will invest 10 billion euros to build a global production center in Zhanjiang, China.
Europe’s pursuit of extreme political correctness has led to the withdrawal of enterprises. This is nothing more than the rebalancing of the global industrial chain. It will not cause a global shortage. It is nothing more than accelerating the deindustrialization of Europe.
Heavy chemical industry, with huge investment, is not so easy to determine the layout. Once it is shut down, it is not so easy to recover.
Why has the United States supported Europe to maintain its industrial scale over the years? In fact, there is no good intention. The debts formed by industry and the subsidies invested by zombie enterprises have become government debts. The politicization has made Europe have to turn its work into welfare, so the whole Europe has become a victim of politicization. The result is a black hole in European debt. However, the United States can use its financial hegemony to start a debt crisis at any time. Every time a crisis breaks out in Europe, the United States can solve its own economic problems.
However, the problem is that Europe is already weak. After drawing blood for many years, and being tossed by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for a year and a half, many advantageous industries have to stop cooking. No matter how thick the blood is, it can not afford to be sucked.
So why did our surplus set a record? In fact, we continue to eat the trade share of Europe and America, which shows that our strength in international competition is steadily improving.
So why do many people feel so bad?
This is the result of industrial restructuring.
Because the epidemic has affected liquidity, the turnover of money is slower than before. Therefore, during the waiting process, many people feel that life is tighter than before, which further affects consumption.
Of course, this is also the reason for the rapid decline of social finance data recently.
But is it hard to live in China now? The epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the US currency cycle are all affecting global demand. Even if there is no epidemic, who can be sure that everything will return to a good situation?
Yesterday, I saw someone lament the closure of a large shopping mall, and then blamed the landlord for the high rent, the high wages of workers, and the low prices of online stores, which led to the failure of business.
But from the perspective of consumers, should we bear the burden of your landlords and workers? Should I pay for your high price? For what?
When the demand side puts forward such requirements, why do you get used to the supply side?
It’s like the new era is coming, and the homespun cloth is squeezed by the machine weaving step, so there is no way to survive. You poor textile woman, who pity those who can’t afford to buy high-priced homespun cloth and wear clothes?
After the pain, the new formats will replace the old ones. Whether we can bear it or not depends on the national accounts. China’s industrial competitiveness is improving, and we can create more wealth. Even if there is an epidemic affecting liquidity, there will be new business models to form another balance.
Therefore, we should still look at the current difficulties from the perspective of development. It is true that the difficulties will be overcome.