Author: falsetto Source: falsetto (official account ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint
As one of the “Five Constants of the Oil Pipeline”, Poland’s presence in the public opinion community can be said to be very strong. But many times, Poland is often mocked by melon eaters for being “unclear” due to some unreasonable choices. However, on May 31st, Polish President Duda showed a rare sense of human sobriety in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Duda said this passage, Nowadays, some people say that Vladimir Putin lost the war, and his failure lies in Finland’s accession to NATO, although Finnish society has been hesitant for years whether to give up its neutrality. Ladies and gentlemen, Vladimir Putin has not lost a war yet. I hope he will lose this one. What we see now is Russia crushing Ukraine, with hundreds of people dying on the front line every day. Russia has 1 There are over a hundred million people, while the population of Ukraine is only about 40 million. Just this difference can indicate who has the advantage
The message conveyed by this statement is very clear:
1. Russia is far from losing the Ukrainian war.
Although Russia did not play as expected and could even be said to be struggling, it still occupies parts of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, making it difficult for Ukraine to drive Russia away in the short term.
2. Putin ruled Russia for twenty years and never lost a war.
Putin’s Battle of Longxing was the second Chechen War, which conquered the Kadyrov family and thus regained control of Chechnya. The Kadyrov family has also become Putin’s trump card, which is very effective in constraining other potential competitors. Especially little Kadyrov, who only served Putin, just like Li Kui who only served Song Jiang. Except for Putin, no one can suppress him.
The Georgian war was decisive, and Putin won a disputed land for Russia, greatly increasing his prestige.
The Syrian war did not look good, but Putin preserved the Bashar regime and maintained Russia’s foundation in the Middle East. So after the Syrian War, Syria has been one of the few supporters of Russia in all previous UN General Assembly elections.
Another option is to acquire some territory from Ukraine. Although the mainstream international community does not recognize Russia’s occupation, Russia follows suit internally because Russians have a natural love for territorial expansion. Whoever can lead them to increase their territory will support them. Of course, this matter is not absolute either. During World War I, the Tsar was overthrown by revolutionaries during the expansion of territory.
3. I hope Putin loses this Ukrainian war, but Russia’s strength still overwhelms Ukraine.
If this paragraph were not spoken by the Polish President, it is likely to be understood by some in the public opinion community as a stinking foot that praises Russia. After all, the war was fought far less than expected, and there are more and more skeptics in Russia.
But no matter what the Polish president says, it will not be understood as pro Russia. Because Poland is one of the most hostile countries to Russia, it has spared no effort in supporting Ukraine.
At the beginning of the war, Poland fully supported Ukraine. When NATO discussed whether to assist Ukrainian tanks, Poland also took the lead in agreeing. Now Poland is pushing for NATO support for Ukrainian F16 fighter jets.
In order to disgust Russia, Poland even changed the Russian enclave Kaliningrad back to its old name Konigsberg. You should know that Konigsberg was the capital of the East Prussian era and belonged to the German Empire.
While the West was singing down Russia, Duda rarely played the role of human sobriety, saying that Russia was far from failing. He also added, “Russia is a nuclear power with a huge arsenal – even if it sends out tanks from the 1960s, what’s funny? Each tank weighs 50 to 60 tons, and as long as it moves, it can suppress it, regardless of whether it’s modern or not
Du Da’s seemingly sobering remarks have three main purposes:
Intention 1: Remind the West not to underestimate Russia.
This world is like this, often the ones who know you the most are not your friends, but your enemies. Undoubtedly, Poland is Russia’s millennium old enemy.
At a macro level, both Poland and Russia are Slavs. But Poland is the West Slav, and Russia is the East Slav. Throughout history, Madame Sisra and Madame Dongsla have always been engaged in fighting and killing.
From a religious perspective, Poles mainly believe in Catholicism, while Russians mainly believe in Eastern Orthodoxy. They both look at each other as pagans and want to conquer each other.
So when Poland becomes strong, it will go to Moscow. When Russia becomes strong, it will destroy Poland. In the history of the Soviet Union, Poland brutally massacred the Soviet army during the Western Expedition; Not long after looking back, the Soviet Union created the Katinson Massacre against Poland again.
In a sense, Poland is one of the countries that knows Russia the most.
My previous article mentioned that Russia is actually very interesting; When people think it’s very good, it often doesn’t work, such as the Russo Japanese War or the Afghanistan War; When people think it doesn’t work, it often works again, such as the anti Napoleon War or the anti Hitler War. The reason is actually very simple. Russian soldiers do not know why they are fighting, so they are very reluctant; When they think that they are defending their country or saving the universal time, their combat effectiveness will explode.
The Russian rulers certainly understand the ethnic characteristics of Russia, so they insist on holding a referendum in the four states of East Ukraine, forcibly turning some of Ukraine’s land into their own; The purpose is to inspire the courage of the Russians to fight for ‘defending their territory’. But this is actually a bit like gambling, and many melon eating people think it’s a gimmick (not recognized by the international community), but Russia is willing to gamble.
In fact, Russia is best at the Rolling Knife War, which is a century old war of attrition. Russia relied on its expertise in rolling knives to defeat the Swedish and Ottoman empires, acquiring large territories and sea ports in Europe. When Russia launched a referendum, it was actually preparing for a long and bloody war. Poland, as one of the most fearful and knowledgeable countries about Russia, is well aware of this.
So Duda spoke out to remind the West to attach importance to Russia and strengthen aid to Ukraine.
The second intention is to seek peace for Poland.
It is not realistic to say that Duda wholeheartedly serves Ukraine. After all, politicians are always the most selfish group and never philanthropists.
As one of the most Russia phobic countries, Poland fully understands that without Ukraine leading the way, Poland would face pressure from Russia directly. But will Ukraine always be at the forefront? No one can say for sure.
For Poland, the best way to address Russia’s threat is to stimulate the West to increase its leverage and drain Russia’s energy. At present, promoting Putin’s strength (who has not yet lost the war) is undoubtedly one of the most stimulating ways for the West. Because in western public opinion, it is “political correctness” to support Ukraine and oppose Russia, and many people are optimistic that they can “win quickly”. If Duda jumps out and says that Putin is still strong, it will undoubtedly push the West to increase its leverage.
Not to mention whether the West can drain Russia’s vitality, but as the President of Poland, we must push the West to increase its influence on Russia, in order to alleviate our fear of Russia.