Author: Mingshu source: official account: Mingshu Zatan wechat ID: laomingdashu
1) On February 24, 2022, Russia recognized the independence of the two republics of Lugansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, and launched military operations in eastern Ukraine on the ground of rescuing the people of Russian descent who were attacked and oppressed by the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian extremist nationalists.
At that time, the biggest controversy about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in China’s domestic media was whether Russia’s military action was aggression or not? Who is responsible for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
In fact, in the field of China’s public opinion, there have been heated debates between the two factions around the two positions of “Pro Russia” and “Pro America”. In particular, some people who hold a “pro american” stance and are influenced by the US narrative have never considered the more critical and complex contradictions between Russia and the United States behind the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, nor have they considered China’s national interests and positions, and have always attacked and criticized Russia. What is more, some people use very vicious language to attack all those who sympathize with and understand Russia and slander them as “filial sons of Russia”.
At that time, I pointed out that the position of a Chinese in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine must be in line with China’s national interests and must respect China’s national position. There is no need for the Chinese to break out “infighting” for the sake of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. (why should we Chinese engage in “infighting” when Ukraine is at war
2) Many historical events can only be seen more clearly if we look back at them at intervals. Today, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than half a year, and the situation is very clear. Although Russia is the party that initiated the war, the United States is the party that really provoked the war and has been seeking private interests through the war.
If it were not for the United States, this war would never have happened. For Russia, after the end of the cold war, the United States went back on its word and continued to promote NATO’s eastward expansion, forcing Russia into a corner. Even so, as long as the United States promises not to let Ukraine join NATO and not to deploy strategic offensive weapons against Russia in Ukraine, there is no need for this war to break out. When the United States flatly rejected Russia’s not excessive demand for negotiations, the United States is actually digging holes and setting traps for Russia, so that Russia can not retreat.
While the United States, despite its constant opposition to war, many American politicians are eager to have a war with Russia. The reason is very simple. As long as Russia has a war, the United States can legitimately use Ukraine to fight a proxy war against Russia, and better control EU countries through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is the “overt plan” of the United States – – “controlling Russia with Ukraine” and “controlling Europe with Russia”.
3) Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, from the tactical perspective, there is no doubt that the United States has succeeded in its “overt plot” and the United States is the biggest beneficiary.
First, the United States mobilized its allies to launch extreme sanctions against Russia after the outbreak of the war by digging and setting traps for Russia. This is a continuation of the strategy of “taking advantage of Russia’s illness and killing Russia” after the end of the cold war.
Second, by intensifying the contradictions between Russia and EU countries, the United States has interrupted the process of reconciliation and cooperation between Russia and the EU in recent years. The United States has taken the opportunity to strengthen NATO and exercise stronger control over EU countries.
Third, through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has plunged Europe into turmoil, and a large number of funds have returned to the United States, which has well cooperated with the US interest rate increase and caused the euro to depreciate significantly. In fact, it is suppressing the euro, the largest competitor of the United States.
Fourth, the United States has increased the insecurity of European Union countries through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Many European countries, including Germany, have indicated that they will significantly increase their military spending, and the United States has sought another piece of cake for its own arms dealers.
Fifth, by imposing sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry, the United States is also seeking benefits for its own energy industry while attacking Russia.
From the tactical level, we have to admit that the Americans are “very smart”. But on the moral level, we have to say that Americans are “very bad”. Through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States regards Ukraine as a chess piece and Europe as a chessboard. The two clear cards of “controlling Russia by Ukraine” and “controlling Europe by Russia” have become very popular, allowing its allies and enemies to pay for their own interests. This move is indeed “high”, but it is also very “damaging”.
4) The United States not only has a strong motive force to reject Russia’s reasonable negotiation demands before the war, but also has a strong motive force to “protract” the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, whether it is the war itself, the extreme sanctions launched by the United States and its allies against Russia, and the anti sanctions launched by Russia, the United States is the least affected. It is Russia and Ukraine, the allies of the European Union and the United States, and other countries in the world who are really bleeding, sacrificing, and paying the price of soaring energy prices for this conflict.
If the United States had not kidnapped and manipulated Ukraine, the Russian Ukrainian conflict would have been resolved through negotiations. It is precisely with the support and coercion of the United States that this conflict cannot be settled for a long time.
The calculation of the United States is very clear. The longer the war lasts, the more likely it is that the United States will turn Ukraine into a second Afghanistan, and let Russia fall deeply into it. It will repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and continue to lose blood.
5) The “pro american faction” in China, in addition to being very confused about the real cause of the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, has also greatly underestimated Russia’s national strength.
Some people, out of their “anti Russian” and “anti Russian” sentiments, wish that the United States and its allies could bring down Russia at one stroke by launching extreme sanctions against Russia. They keep saying that Russia’s GDP is not comparable to that of Guangdong Province and that Russia is vulnerable.
However, they have forgotten that Russia is a large country with resources, and it can fully achieve self-sufficiency in the two most critical aspects of food and energy.
The extreme sanctions launched by the United States and its allies against Russia will make the Russian economy face serious difficulties, but it is far from causing the Russian economy to collapse.
On the contrary, Russia has used its oil and gas resources to continuously beat the EU countries, causing their energy prices to soar and energy supply to face difficulties. With the coming of winter in the northern hemisphere, Europe will fall into a serious energy crisis, and the energy bills that European people have to pay will skyrocket 5 times and 10 times.
How weak and stupid should a country or a group of countries be before they can really “draw a chestnut from the fire” for the United States?
6) More than half a year since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although the United States has achieved a lot in tactics, it has also lost a lot in strategy.
The United States continues to make fire, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been protracted, and the United States is creating great trouble for itself.
In the early stage of the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States called the wind and the rain in the international public opinion. It not only successfully mobilized its allies to severely condemn and impose extreme sanctions on Russia, but also successfully made the vast majority of countries in the international community condemn Russia’s military actions.
But today, with the passage of time, Russia’s international isolation is greatly improving. Now, apart from the United States and its core allies, the positions of other countries have become increasingly similar to those of China and India. All countries have seen the historical latitude behind the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. They no longer simply cooperate with the United States and call Russia an “aggressor”.
7) Since after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the main consequences of the United States and its allies launching extreme sanctions against Russia are borne by the EU countries, it is difficult to cover up the contradictions between Europe and the United States on this issue.
It is reported that the current Ukrainian government needs financial assistance of US $5 billion per month. Recently, the European Union has refused to pay, and the United States is mainly responsible for it.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, international energy prices remain high. After the winter in the northern hemisphere, EU countries will face a serious energy crisis. At this time, there will inevitably be contradictions between the EU’s hope to end the crisis as soon as possible with the negotiation situation and the United States’ hope to prolong the conflict.
8) Through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world has once again seen clearly that it is dangerous to be an enemy of the United States, but it is more dangerous to be an ally of the United States.
The United States keeps saying that it sympathizes with and supports Ukraine, but in the end, the whole world finds that the United States will not go to war with Russia in order to safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. The United States aims to strangle and consume Russia by draining the blood of the last Ukrainian.
The United States has time and again used its allies as chessmen and abandoned them all the time. It is a proper “scum man”.
The United States’ attack on EU countries through the Russia Ukraine conflict is even more disappointing.
The United States does not need to import Russia’s oil and gas resources, but it forces EU countries to drastically reduce their oil and gas imports from Russia. The United States, in its name, wants EU countries to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas. In essence, it artificially creates an energy crisis in Europe and the world, and EU countries suffer greatly.
After Merkel, there are no politicians in Europe, which may not be empty words.
Today’s Europe is full of speculative politicians, but there is a lack of politicians who dare to stand up in front of the United States and dare to fight for the interests of their own people. It is really sad.
9) Although after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States played the two cards of “controlling Russia by Ukraine” and “controlling Europe by Russia”, strategically speaking, the United States is making serious mistakes.
By launching extreme sanctions against Russia, the United States has deepened and continued the historical antagonism and hatred between Russia and the United States. In the next 10 or 20 years at least, Russia will become one of the countries in the world that most hate us hegemony.
The United States tries to use Ukraine to consume Russia, and Russia can also use Ukraine to consume EU countries and the United States.
More seriously, when the United States launched extreme sanctions against Russia, it directly “weaponized” the US dollar hegemony, frozen the assets of the Russian central bank, and kicked the major Russian banks out of the swift system, which left many countries with lingering fears. More and more countries, including China, have found that the tactics used by the United States to deal with Russia today can be used by the United States to deal with itself in the future. It is precisely out of this concern that a new trend of “de Americanization” and “de dollarization” will emerge in the world.
10) In the strategic triangle between China, the United States and Russia, the Biden administration is blinded by profits and attempts to strike two with one, which is really beyond its capacity.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has occupied a lot of strategic attention of the United States. Next, as the contradictions between the United States and EU countries become public, the United States will spend more energy to coordinate the positions of its allies.
Through US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan not long ago, we can also see that when China gave a stern warning in advance, and later created a new normal in the Taiwan Strait region through unconventional means such as military exercises around Taiwan and breaking through the central line of the Taiwan Strait, the United States is objectively avoiding China’s edge. This shows, at least to a certain extent, that the United States is not ready to open a second battlefield with China in the Taiwan Strait against the backdrop of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In the long run, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine forces Russia to look eastward, which increases the realistic sense of urgency for China and Russia to join hands to fight against US hegemony.
Japan followed the United States in launching sanctions against Russia, which seriously damaged Russia Japan relations. Russia may exert greater strategic and security pressure on Japan in the future.
Objectively, these are all favorable factors for China.
The United States originally hoped to scare China by launching extreme sanctions against Russia, but Ukraine is obviously not Taiwan, and Taiwan is obviously not Ukraine. If the United States wants to repeat the “Ukraine model” on the Taiwan issue and launch extreme sanctions against China, it will be very difficult.
Finally, in the words of Taiwan’s “famous speaker” Guo Zhengliang, if the United States finds that it cannot defeat China, a manufacturing power, with trade war, and Russia, a commodity power, with extreme sanctions, it will find that after World War II, the United States will face two countries that are not afraid of the United States militarily and economically for the first time.
I agree with this view, and I also think that although the United States is dancing happily now, the bitter days of the United States are still ahead. With the decline of American hegemony, the United States will become more and more powerless in the face of China, Russia and other countries.
Many unjust acts will kill themselves. This is true for individuals and also true for the United States, a hegemonic country.
The “pro american faction” in China needs to open their eyes to see the world, and more importantly, to open their hearts that have been hoodwinked and deceived by the American narrative for a long time. Only in this way can they get out of their narrow “liberal” circle and see a larger, more complete and more real world.