Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
Jianghu is not only a place of fighting and killing, but also a place of sophistication.
In the Jianghu of the global village, some people not only want to fight and kill, but also need worldly sophistication.
Putin is such a person.
01 Jianghu and worldly wisdom
During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia wanted to award its alexandernevsky medal to President Tokayev of Kazakhstan to show the close relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia.
Tokaev’s refusal to accept this is tantamount to a direct refutation of Putin’s face.
The Alexander Nevsky medal, formerly known as the St. Alexander Nevsky imperial medal, honors Russians who have made outstanding contributions to the country. After the October Revolution in 1917, the medal was abolished. During the patriotic war in 1942, the Soviet authorities awarded St. Alexander Nevsky the imperial Medal
Medal, awarded to Soviet soldiers.
There is no doubt that the medal originated in memory of Alexander Nevsky. This old iron was a commander-in-chief in early tsarist Russia. He did two things in his life: first, he fought with the Teutonic Knights of East Prussia and had a good record; 2? During the period of Mongolian rule in Russia, he acted as the liaison between the East Slavic lady and the Mongols (similar to the Mongolian imperial army).
Soviet Union restores Alexander Nevsky
Medals, mainly awarded to officers from platoon level to division level; The intention was to encourage soldiers to fight with the Germans through the spirit of Nevsky (Stalin declared him a national hero).
The Alexander Nevsky Medal of the Russian era was also awarded to some foreign heavyweights.
Old Ironmongers may wonder, will heavyweights in other countries rare a medal from the Russian military?
Generally speaking, it is not rare.
However, most of the countries around Russia are seceded from Russia or the Soviet Union, and their relations with Russia are very complex. For example, President kalushenko of Belarus was very happy when he talked about Putin’s promise to grant him the rank of colonel.
Former President Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan accepted the Nevsky medal awarded by Russia in 2015, on the grounds that he has made outstanding contributions to promoting the development of Russia Kazakhstan bilateral relations and the process of Eurasian integration.
Russia also wants Tokayev to play the same role. After all, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, Russia is a little isolated in the international community, and it needs allies to stand up and shout.
However, Tokayev chose to refuse to accept it, completely giving Putin no face. This makes the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan very delicate.
You should know that in the Jianghu of the global village, although everyone talks about civilization verbally, they all respect strength in their actions.
You should know that Putin is a man who likes to talk about strength and does not often give face to others. When he gives others face, he is seldom refuted.
To know that Tokaev’s strength is far from Putin’s, why should he refute Putin’s face?
Tokaev’s press secretary explained that “the head of state thanked him for this honor. However, he decided not to accept any awards at home and abroad until the end of his presidency.”
Of course, this is a saying. Tokayev was a student of Nazarbayev, who ostensibly inherited his mantle. In principle, Tokayev should also accept the Nevsky medal. But he chose to refuse.
This is not the only thing that Tokayev did not give Putin face during his stay in Russia.
Of course, Tokaev’s refusal was very artistic.
02 muddle headed Art
So what kind of support does Russia need? He replied that he supported Russia’s policy in East Ukraine, that is, to support the independence of Lugansk and Donetsk in East Ukraine.
However, during the Q & a session of the St. Petersburg forum, Tokayev stated in front of Putin that Kazakhstan believed that Lugansk and Donetsk were only “quasi states” and did not recognize their independence.
In fact, this statement is straightforward and tough enough.
We should know that Kazakhstan is one of the countries with good relations with Russia. Tokayev’s statement represents the attitude of the international mainstream society in a sense, that is, he does not recognize the independence of the two republics in Eastern Europe.
In Russia, Tokayev said this in the presence of Putin.
Of course, he is not hard to be hard.
“Our society is open and a mature civil society, so it is allowed to express different opinions. However, I would like to point out the following points: the foundation of the current international order is the Charter of the United Nations. However, the two major principles of the United Nations are actually contradictory,
National territorial integrity and national self-determination
? These principles are contradictory and have different interpretations. “
Note information points:
1. The current international order is based on the Charter of the United Nations.
2. The two basic principles of the United Nations, “national sovereignty and territorial integrity and the right of peoples to self-determination”, are contradictory.
Why do you say that? That is because some people believe that the integrity of national sovereignty is above all else, and similar sovereignty is above human rights; In addition, some people believe that some people in a country have the right to establish their own country and engage in secession, which is similar to the fact that human rights are higher than sovereignty.
Tokaev believes that the root cause of these contradictions is that “the founders of the United Nations did not seem to take this into account, or they deliberately wrote it into the Charter as a compromise.”
In fact, Tokaev’s analysis is not accurate. Those who founded the United Nations were all top politicians. Roosevelt, Stalin, Churchill and so on were all old foxes who had experienced the economic crisis and the Second World War.
Will they fail to see the contradictions and differences? In fact, they know better than anyone!
The reason why they make the UN Charter into two contradictory parts is very simple: intentional!
——The seemingly contradictory “UN principle” is actually a space for the world’s giants to “pursue double standards”.
Big countries are greedy and realistic, and always choose the part that is beneficial to them. If sovereignty is beneficial to us, we should emphasize that sovereignty is above all else; If human rights are beneficial to us, we should emphasize that human rights are more important than Mount Tai.
Take the Ukrainian war as an example. The West supports Ukraine under the banner of respecting sovereignty and integrity, and Russia supports the independence of eastern Ukraine under the banner of respecting human rights.
Moving forward, the West supports Kosovo’s independence under the banner of respecting human rights. But the United States itself will never allow Texas to engage in national self-determination.
Moving forward, the Soviet Union also supported the independence of Outer Mongolia under the banner of national self-determination. But it is Russia’s turn to absolutely not allow Chechnya to engage in national self-determination.
The so-called United Nations, in a sense, is just a stage for big countries to engage in double bidding. Tokayev did not necessarily know such things that even the senior gourd eaters knew. He’s probably just pretending to be confused.
Being confused is an art in itself.
Because only by “pretending to be confused” can Putin be rejected with clever words.
Tokaev said that if this right of national self-determination is allowed, the United Nations will no longer be 193 countries, but 500 to 600 countries. “That is why we do not recognize Taiwan, Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This principle also applies to Lugansk and Donetsk, which are considered quasi state entities. This is my open answer to your open-ended questions.”
This passage is soft and hard. But here we need to emphasize that Taiwan is different from other countries. Taiwan is a province of China, mainly Han people. The Taiwan issue is a legacy of war, and there is no so-called issue of national self-determination.
The reason why Tokayev made such a lot of arguments is that he is very worried that today in Ukraine will become tomorrow in Kazakhstan.
The northern territory of Kazakhstan was also “donated” by the former Soviet Union, and there were also many Russians. Tokaev worried that Russia would move the routine of “national self-determination” to Kazakhstan in the future.
His firm opposition to “national self-determination” is to safeguard Kazakh sovereignty. For the sake of Kazakhstan, he rejected Putin.
03 invisible pressure
Since ancient times, small countries not only need to be tough, but also bear enormous pressure to reject powerful neighbors.
Pressure 1. Military level.
Kadyrov, a tough Chechen man, was very dissatisfied with Kazakhstan and other members of the collective security organization for not fully supporting Russia and criticized them for being ungrateful. The main irony here is that Tokayev relied on Russia to get rid of the crisis in the “January incident”, but did not repay his kindness.
Kadyrov has always been Putin’s fan brother, a radical representative of the Russian military, and also a flow bearer. He came out to accuse Tokayev, which is equivalent to pressure from the Russian military.
On this point, Tokaev also made a response in Russia: “in Russia, some people have distorted the whole truth. They say that Russia (or Putin) saved Kazakhstan in January this year, so Kazakhstan” owes “to Russia. Now Kazakhstan should always serve Russia and crawl at the feet of Russia. I think this is totally unreasonable. This statement is far from reality. “
Pressure 2. Political level.
On the 18th, konstantinzaturin, vice chairman of the CIS Affairs Committee of the Russian State Duma, responded that Tokayev’s statement was “incorrect” and a provocation against Russian President Putin. Zatulin also threatened on the issue of Russian settlements in Kazakhstan that if the relationship between the two countries breaks down, then “everything is possible, just like Ukraine”.
——This is the naked threat.
Can this threat work? Probability backfires. That is what Tokayev is worried about.
Pressure 3. Economic aspect.
Russia’s “businessman” reported on June 18 that in order to clear the Black Sea coast of Russia
For the unexploded ordnance of World War II, Russia will partially shut down the oil transportation equipment of the port from the 20th, and the time will last at least until the end of this month.
What does this matter have to do with Kazakhstan?
Novorossisk port is the terminal of the Caspian pipeline Union (CPC) oil pipeline.
The CPC pipeline has a total length of more than 1500 km, connecting novorossisk along the Black Sea coast of Russia to the west, and connecting the oil fields in western Kazakhstan and along the Caspian Sea coast of Russia to the East; It has transported more than two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s export oil, which can be called the “lifeblood” of Kazakhstan’s oil export.
Therefore, the temporary closure of novorossisk port has a great impact on Kazakhstan. Although Russia’s reason is to clean up “unexploded munitions in World War II”, this time point (Tokayev rejected Putin) is very coincidental, and it is easy to be interpreted by the media as putting pressure on Kazakhstan.
04 some thoughts
1. Will Kazakhstan give in? Obviously not.
Russia cannot go too far on oil pipelines. After all, Kazakhstan’s oil can be transported to the South via Azerbaijan and Turkey pipelines. In that case, Russia will lose more than it gains.
2. Kazakhstan’s refusal to “fall to one side” with Russia is actually conducive to the stability of Central Asia.
Russia regards Central Asia as its backyard.
However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the pattern of Central Asia has changed. In addition to Russia, the United States, China, India and other countries have great interests in Central Asia. If Kazakhstan completely turns to Russia, it will break the balance in Central Asia.
3. Tokaev did very well.
Since taking office, Tokaev has done two things:
Internally: draw a clear line with Nazarbayev and commit to promoting domestic reform.
External: draw a clear line with Russia and lead Kazakhstan on its own path.
As a leader of a small country, it is not easy to do this.