Original: guziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: zhengshitang plus2019
Weekend, write some essays.
In the past week, we can intuitively feel that the negative public opinion in Henan is one wave after another.
From forcing returned college students to drink traditional Chinese medicine every day, to giving red codes to foreign depositors and local owners, to forcing people to supervise each other without appealing for help by taking the high school entrance examination, to the “white paper demolition” where the government does not pay, and the tens of billions of holes in new wealth group and rural banks
There are a lot of articles scolding Henan on the Internet. A certain media puts the news of black Henan on the first screen almost every day. I don’t join in where I’m not good at. I believe everyone is almost angry. Today, let’s talk about why there are so many problems in Henan recently.
On the one hand, from Well, 300 words are omitted here.
On the other hand, from an economic point of view, Henan is just the worst hit area in this round of economic cycle.
As the United States began to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet this year, the world is facing the danger of recession. In order to avoid risks, capital will withdraw from high-risk areas and take the initiative to stay together for warmth.
Many keen friends can intuitively feel this “centralized” flow.
All over the world, stocks and virtual assets are cold, while national debt, local bonds, corporate bonds are hot. Hard currencies such as the U.S. dollar and pound are strong, while the exchange rate of Argentina and Turkey is avalanche. Even China’s real estate is also an avalanche in marginal areas, and the gold content in various places has repeatedly broken new highs.
Not to mention the luxury houses on the Pearl River and Taiping mountain, the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai is so serious that it can not stop the big guys’ enthusiasm for spending a lot of money. Hangzhou has made countless technology big guys reach half the sea water and half the fire between science and gold.
Next, with the Federal Reserve’s “dove before Eagle” interest rate hike, this Matthew effect will further accelerate in the second half of the year.
Internationally, the flow of capital from developing countries to Britain and the United States will accelerate. Domestically, capital will also accelerate from “developing provinces” to “developed” cities.
Therefore, the situation encountered by the countries represented by Argentina and Turkey that failed to jump out of the medium trap will also occur in the provinces represented by Henan that failed to complete the industrialization upgrading within the land fiscal bonus period.
From using traditional Chinese medicine for epidemic prevention, to giving red codes to prevent debt collection, to using scores to suppress petitions, and then to white paper demolition The people in the east look down on these and wish to scold Henan. In the final analysis, the government has no money.
In other words, if you can’t borrow money, you can only solve the problem with “native methods” that don’t cost money. (including the final Cao Cao model, which is sacrificed by grain transportation officials)
In addition, if you guessed right, Henan is the province that asked the central government to borrow money, as mentioned at the meeting on stabilizing the market two months ago.
Therefore, it is politically correct to deal with Henan’s regional crime, but we should also take into account that “Henan Province has its own situation here”. The local finance has no money to solve the problem, and can’t learn from Zimbabwe to print money. There are no pyramid schemes and anchor stations in the province to check taxes. After thinking about it, we can only write a blank note to the people to do shed reform
Finally, I have studied the white paper policy of shed reform and demolition in Henan, which is also a little clever in Chinese style.
It can not only keep the house price, drive the new houses to be destocked, let the common people use leverage consumption to promote the economy, but also prevent the common people from taking the demolition money from Henan to buy houses in the first tier cities, so as to complete the internal circulation of capital in Henan.
Considering the enlargement to the national level, they all play like this.
Therefore, if there is no big rebound in this wave, it is possible to promote and replicate the white stripe shed reform model in inland provinces in the second half of the year.
This also means that China’s exploration of real estate securitization may really lead the world