Henan has launched a real estate Exodus!

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Original: Gu Ziming this article is authorized to be reproduced to wechat official account: political affairs hall plus2019

The great escape of the real estate industry is about to begin.

On the afternoon of the 8th, Zhengzhou held a deployment meeting for the “real estate development enterprise slimming and self rescue action”, and the responsible persons of more than 60 real estate enterprises were called to the scene.

The day before the meeting, a notice of “working hard for 30 days to ensure the full resumption of construction of the city’s suspended buildings” was circulated on the Internet, requiring everyone to smash the pot and sell iron, and fully and substantively resume the projects that were suspended or semi suspended in early October.

A government document wants to bring all the uncompleted residential buildings in the country back to life within one month, which is no one’s confidence. Henan is not Fujian with a golden key. Under the premise of marketization, if it can really resume work through self rescue, it will not be delayed until now.

However, from the time point of early October, I suddenly feel that the full resumption of work in Henan may be very reliable. What can not be solved by marketization will most likely be handed over to the administration.

Generally speaking, the problem of uncompleted residential flats is that there is a problem with the funds of leveraged developers. Three covers (money) need to cover 10 pots (land). In order to protect these 10 pots, cash strapped real estate enterprises are unwilling to carry out follow-up development after receiving the housing payment, because once they invest in development, there will be two covers to cover nine pots, and the risk will suddenly increase. They can’t wait for the government to release lifesaving water.

The Henan government’s idea to solve the problem is also very simple. Developers without covers and pots have long run away, and this kind of unfinished business can only be abandoned. Now the remaining real estate enterprises that are unwilling to develop are both covers and pots.

If the government uses all its pots (land) to coerce the developers, they can only hand over the covers (money).

So if I guess correctly, Henan is ready to be tough this time. If these called real estate enterprises can’t complete the resumption of work before the middle of next month, there will be no chance for them to start any project in the future. The doors of the housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau and the bank will be closed forever, and the doors of the tax bureau and the Public Security Bureau will be open to them. With a word of candor and leniency.

Then these developers’ bosses may lose more than just the lids and pots. I’m afraid the proprietress may get in.

Therefore, I guess that a large part of the more than 60 developers will “smash the pot and sell iron”, especially the national enterprises represented by rongchuang, which is endowed with red code in Henan, will raise funds to start substantive resumption of work within one month with the help of the government.

Speaking of rongchuang, such enterprises are not only facing administrative pressure from the government, but also some creditors will exert pressure on them with the help of the government.

On the afternoon of the 7th, the official website of the Hong Kong high court showed that the natural person “Chen Huijun” petitioned rongchuang China for liquidation.

Chen Huaijun is the boss of Anhui golden earth. It is estimated that he has cooperation with rongchuang in Anhui. Now, when the real estate situation is cold and winter, he wants to get out of it but can’t. He just wants to break the pot and break the net with sun Hongbin.

According to the laws of Hong Kong, any disposal of the company’s property, any transfer of the company’s shares, or any change in the status of shareholders after the company is presented with a winding up petition will be null and void.

This means that once in the situation of liquidation petition, there are two covers to cover the melting wound of nine pots, and the difficulty of moving the covers will be further increased.

Even the limited disposal of assets in the liquidation petition conflicts with Henan’s request to “smash the pot and sell iron” to resume work, which adds systemic risks to the already shaky rongchuang.

In my opinion, both the Henan model and the Chen Huaijun model are good models to solve uncompleted residential flats and triangular debts. However, once these models are proved to be effective, other urban governments and creditors will follow suit one after another, demanding that these moribund real estate enterprises give priority to solving their own problems, resulting in the whole industry falling into a prisoner’s game.

As the game ability between big cities and big funds will be stronger, some big city governments will force real estate enterprises to transfer funds from third and fifth tier project companies, and some creditors at the group level will force developers to transfer funds from local project companies in order to get compensation.

This is the same as the US dollar rebound pattern triggered by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and table tightening. The final result may be that a few months after Zhengzhou and other cities solved the problem of uncompleted residential buildings, the number of uncompleted residential buildings in some third and fifth tier cities increased sharply, transmitting the chill of real estate to more people.

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