Hidden worries in Central Asia: why does Kazakhstan suddenly become hostile to Russia?

Spread the love

Author: brother Mao, this article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).

Putin never expected that he would encounter a “betrayal” from the east at the critical moment when the Russian Ukrainian war entered a stalemate.

The good news is that this “betrayal” did not come from China. The bad news is that the “betrayal” came from Kazakhstan, his once close brother.

You know, at the beginning of this year, there was a riot in Kazakhstan, and the position of President Tokayev was in jeopardy. It was the Russian led centralized security organization that sent troops to help Kazakhstan stabilize the situation.

For Kazakhstan, this can be called a “blessing of reinvention”.

But within a few months, Kazakhstan completely disappointed Russia. In June, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Kazakh President Tokayev made a public statement, saying that he would not recognize the independence of the two states of udong Luton.

Then in early July, the Ministry of finance of Kazakhstan announced the draft accounting rules for transporting goods from its territory to Russia, which stipulated or would prohibit the export of goods subject to Western sanctions to Russia.

This decision is very serious, because the last one to do so was the clown Lithuania.

Subsequently, Tokaev also announced that he would withdraw from the agreement of the CIS multinational monetary Committee signed in 1995, and the media also hyped that Kazakhstan might withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union.

The most fatal contradiction occurred on July 4, when Tokayev talked with the president of the European Council, Charles Michel. Tokayev told the European Union that Kazakhstan could replace 90% of the oil imports from Russia.

??

Russia’s response was, sorry, Kazakhstan’s oil pipeline CPC to Europe via Russia will be shut down for 30 days because of “environmental protection technology problems”.

This can hit Kazakhstan’s seven inches. You know, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas resources exports account for 50% of its foreign exchange revenue, and two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s oil exports depend on this pipeline called CPC. It’s not too much to say that CPC is Kazakhstan’s economic lifeline.

Now the lifeline of the economy is about to be cut off for 30 days. Kazakhstan is ignorant. Russia, you are so ruthless!

So, how did the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan, which was originally close to each other, get so far?

one

Kazakhstan unwilling to be plucked

We all know that all problems can be attributed to economic problems, and Russia and Kazakhstan are no exception to this discord.

Kazakhstan was once a member of the Soviet Union, and its status was equal to that of Russia in theory, but in fact, Kazakhstan has always been a second tier Republic, and its status within the Soviet Union has always been low, far lower than that of Belarus and Ukraine.

??????????????

Due to the wonderful “Soviet family” in the Soviet era

ā€¯According to the division of labor policy, industrial countries should do a good job in industry, and agricultural countries should do a good job in agriculture. Therefore, when you come to Kazakhstan, you can only open mines, herd sheep, and grow cotton, so as to feed the Soviet industry with resources and agriculture. The central government of the Soviet Union transfused blood to Kazakhstan in a form similar to “transfer payment”.

So Kazakhstan firmly chose to stand with the Soviet Union when the Soviet Union disintegrated. Nazarbayev flew to Moscow many times, hoping to persuade Gorbachev and Yeltsin not to let the Soviet Union disintegrate. This is not how attached Kazakhstan is to the Soviet Union, but because Kazakhstan cannot live without the Soviet Union’s blood transfusion.

However, the Soviet Union still disintegrated, and Kazakhstan can only rely on itself. Fortunately, Kazakhstan has a large number of natural resources. With the help of attracting foreign enterprises for joint venture exploitation, it finally got through the difficulties, but this also led to the single economic structure of Kazakhstan.

In 2019, the total output value of Kazakhstan’s mining industry was about US $42.101 billion, accounting for 55.37% of the total industrial output value. Among them, oil and gas exploitation industry plays an important role, with oil and condensate output of 90.5271 million tons and natural gas of 56.435 billion cubic meters.

??

??

Although it can make money selling minerals and oil, Kazakhstan has always had a heart disease: poor sales!

Open the map and you will find that Kazakhstan faces Russia in the north and the four countries in Central Asia in the south. Coincidentally, these neighbors are resource-based countries, so they can’t sell them, so they can only sell things. But it’s difficult to complete low-cost transportation between the East and China across the mountains, so you can only consider the West. After all, the west is the Caspian Sea, and the transportation is much more convenient, which is the basis for the birth of CPC.

CPC’s full name is the Caspian oil pipeline. Although there is a name of the Caspian Sea inside, it is not paved from the bottom of the Caspian Sea, but from Astrakhan sandy land to the north Caucasus, from novorossisk port to the Black Sea, and then transported to Europe by ship.

??

Now that the marketing problem has been solved, it has brought a new problem. This pipeline is completely in the hands of Russia.

You know, when the pipeline was under construction, Nazarbayev agreed to join the Russian led “Eurasian Economic Union”. A few days later, Russia passed a decree to ensure the construction of a pipeline system for oil exports from Kazakhstan. It is not too much to say that this pipeline is a tool used by Russia to bind Kazakhstan.

This is completely understandable. After all, the pipeline has to pass through Russia, so it must give Russia some benefits, right?

But the problem with Russia is that it looks a little ugly.

Let’s start with cold knowledge. Although Russia is one of the world’s largest natural gas exporters, it still imports 42billion cubic meters of natural gas from Turkmenistan every year.

Why? Because there is a price difference.

The import price is $100 per 1000 cubic meters, and it is sold in Europe at $250 per 1000 cubic meters.

This is simply a business without money. Anyway, the pipeline has been built, and it is empty. Importing more Turkmenistan gas can sell more money. Moreover, for Turkmenistan, there is no way to choose. Who wants to have no pipeline? If you don’t sell it to Ross, who can you sell it to?

OK, so Turkmenistan recognizes it, but it’s even more excessive. When the energy price is high, Russia, when the two dealers earn the price difference. When the energy price is low, requires Turkmenistan to reduce production in order to ensure its own natural gas price. However, Turkmenistan is also a resource country, which makes money by exporting natural gas. Naturally, it is unwilling to reduce production, so on April 9, 2009, The “Central Asia central” gas pipeline suddenly exploded.

??

The pipe exploded, need repairing? Is the supply insufficient? Natural gas prices have rebounded, right? It has to be said that Russia’s move is tough enough. People with overcapacity in the West pour their own milk, while Russia pours other people’s milk.

For Turkmenistan, the explosion not only brought ecological disaster, but also directly led to the failure of external gas supply for a long time, which directly affected the national income and put the economy in trouble.

This situation also exists in Kazakhstan. Russia exports crude oil in the international market, including Urals, ESPO, Arco, Siberian light, Sokol, Vityaz and CPC blended crude oil.

This CPC mixed oil is actually a light, low sulfur crude oil with an API of 46.2 and a sulfur content of 0.54% produced in Kazakhstan. When passing through Russia, it is mixed with high sulfur oil, heavy oil and even condensate produced in Russia. These Russian oil products are poor and have high refining and chemical costs. If sold alone, it cannot sell at a high price. If mixed into Kazakh oil, it can take the opportunity to increase the selling price, This operation is the same as tying rope to hairy crabs to sell at a high price.

So you see, for the Central Asian countries, Russia is not only collecting wool, but also robbing money, but the Central Asian countries can only swallow it. The first is that although the Soviet Union disintegrated, the remaining power is still there. The five Central Asian countries are still Russia’s backyard. The second is that the economies of Central Asian countries are highly dependent on Russia. Russia can’t stand “pipeline maintenance” every three or five times, not to mention the explosion of pipelines.

??

However, after the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war, the situation was different.

The first question is,

After the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, western countries led by the United States imposed economic sanctions on Russia and restricted Russia’s oil imports.

It is impossible to say that such sanctions have no impact on Russia. After all, in the commodity market, customers with a certain purchase volume and suppliers with a certain production volume are relatively stable. If one of them goes wrong, it is difficult to find a substitute.

As a result, the Europeans were very uncomfortable. The oil sanctions ban caused their own inflation, forcing shell to secretly buy Russian oil mixed with more than 50% of other oil, which became “Latvia mixed oil”.

Although this successfully circumvented the ban, did it not also lead to a sharp decline in Russia’s oil exports to Europe?

Russia is also very uncomfortable. When the oil production goes up, it can’t be said that it can go down if it goes down. In order to find a market for oil, Russia has to cut prices and sell oil, which has indeed won the favor of many Asian countries.

China, India and other countries have expanded their oil imports to Russia, and even Saudi Arabia, an oil producing country, has begun to buy Russian low-cost oil. You can imagine how low this price is.

Take India as an example. When Brent oil price was 130 US dollars, the selling price in Russia was 90 US dollars. India made a lot of money when it refined refined oil and sold it to Europe as an intermediary.

??

Russia sells oil at a low price. Does it also need to import oil from the five Central Asian countries at a low price? After all, Russia can’t do business at a loss, so don’t look at the international oil price of more than $100, but it has nothing to do with the five countries in Central Asia. It still needs to supply at a low price, so

Central Asian countries are far from enjoying the dividends of rising oil.

Looking at the soaring international oil prices and the poor domestic export prices, are the five Central Asian countries scratching their ears?

The second problem is that Kazakhstan is afraid of bringing disaster to the fish in the pond.

In May this year, European Commission President von delaine announced a comprehensive ban on all marine and pipeline oil, crude oil and refined oil in Russia, saying that “Russian oil will be phased out in an orderly manner”, and called on Member States to achieve this goal by the end of 2022.

Although it is still unknown whether this goal can be achieved, under the pressure of the United States, Europe has been desperately looking for alternatives recently. For example, Germany wants to restart thermal power plants, and has signed a large order of 150 million tons of coal with Indonesia. Qatar is also frantically expanding its liquefied natural gas production capacity, becoming an emergency natural gas supplier in Europe, The United Arab Emirates has signed us $30billion cooperation agreements with total oil and gas company of France and Eni group of Italy to expand the world’s largest liquefied natural gas project (Northern Gas Field).

Therefore, don’t underestimate the determination of Europeans to gradually squeeze Russian energy out of the world crude oil market.

Kazakhstan panicked. The CPC pipeline is the lifeline of Kazakhstan, but it is also an important export pipeline of Russia. Kazakhstan is very worried that the European Union will ban this oil pipeline together. After all, the pipeline is dark. Can you tell which is Kazakhstan’s oil? What is Russian oil?

??

For Russia, my oil is banned, and your oil will be exported through my pipeline? There are no doors!

Once this channel is cut off, Russia can survive, but what about Kazakhstan? Drink northwest wind?

Therefore, Kazakhstan must make a gesture to cut with Russia and strive for direct oil supply with Europe. Tokayev’s goal is to build a pipeline across the Caspian Sea, bypass Russia, directly to Azerbaijan, and directly to Europe with the help of Azerbaijan’s existing pipeline!

In fact, this is not a new proposal, because a few years ago, Turkmenistan had planned to build a pipeline across the Caspian Sea to send its natural gas directly to Azerbaijan and then export it to Europe, but was stopped by Russia on the grounds of “destroying the environment and ecology of the Caspian Sea”.

Maybe Kazakhstan feels more iron headed. During Tokayev’s visit to Turkey in May this year, he mentioned the issue of Kazakhstan’s energy being transported to Europe through Azerbaijan. Then, in a phone call with the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, in July, this pipeline is also an important content. Tokayev also drew a big cake for the European Union: after completion, Kazakhstan can replace 90% of oil imports from Russia!

??

Then the pipeline in Kazakhstan was choked by Russia.

The third problem is economic dependence.

Due to the residual power of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan’s economy is deeply tied to Russia. In 2014, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan also officially signed the Eurasian Economic Union Treaty, which aims to ensure the free circulation of goods, services, capital and labor in the three countries. The three countries will coordinate their economic policies.

To put it bluntly, the goal is to build a “unified market” that covers the sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union.

In 2021, the bilateral trade volume between Russia and Kazakhstan will reach a record 23billion US dollars, which is a considerable figure. By the end of 2021, Russia’s cumulative investment in Kazakhstan had reached $43billion. At present, Kazakhstan’s top five trading partners are Russia, China, Italy, the Netherlands and India, of which trade with Russia accounts for 23.6%. Kazakhstan’s wood processing and metallurgical products are mainly exported to Russia.

80% of the major shareholders of enterprises in Kazakhstan are Russians. The bosses of lower level business entities have large amounts of real estate and capital in offshore companies (Russian registered banks) in Moscow and Petersburg… Equivalent to

The economy of the whole country is under Russian supervision.

However, after the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia, Russian domestic industries closed down one after another, and the automotive industry closed down, causing a sharp decline in Kazakhstan’s industry.

So, for Kazakhstan, can we share weal and woe with Russia? Sorry, we haven’t reached that point yet.

After all, Kazakhstan’s domestic inflation has reached 14% due to the superposition of epidemic and war this year. In the short and long term, Kazakhstan is eager to get rid of the economic binding on Russia, otherwise the political situation will be unstable.

??

It is worth mentioning that on the surface, Kazakhstan jumped out to draw a line with Russia, but in fact, this is the unanimous intention of the five Central Asian countries, just because Kazakhstan has the largest volume, so it will take the lead.

The direct evidence is Tokayev’s statement that “Kazakhstan can replace 90% of oil imports from Russia”. Just look at the data, we can see that in 2021, the total oil import of the EU was about 300 million tons, of which the oil import from Russia reached about 108.1 million tons, 90% of which was more than 90 million tons. But what is the total export volume of Kazakhstan? Only 67million tons, far from replacing 90% of Russia’s oil.

This is Kazakhstan’s hint to Europe: the five Central Asian countries are willing to supply oil directly to the EU without Russia, of course, through Kazakhstan’s channels.

For Kazakhstan, if Russia can be a double dealer, can’t I?

two

Geopolitical Game

In addition to economic factors, Kazakhstan’s choice to be hostile to Russia also has far-reaching geopolitical factors.

Speaking of the relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia, it can be said that it is not reasonable but chaotic. At the end of the 19th century, tsarist Russia completely conquered Central Asia. In order to govern here, tsarist Russia established the grassland governor’s Office (now Kazakhstan) and the Turkestan governor’s Office (now the four Central Asian countries except Kazakhstan). After the establishment of the Soviet Union, in order to stabilize its rule, Central Asia was divided into five countries according to nationality.

??????????????

However, the Soviet Union considered that if the demarcation was based on ethnic groups, it would easily lead to the dominance of the main ethnic group of the joining Republic later, and the Soviet Union, dominated by Russian ethnic groups, might be difficult to maintain its ruling authority and voice for a long time.

Therefore, the Soviet government continued to “mix sand” with Russians and Ukrainians immigrating to Northern Kazakhstan for a legitimate reason: to help Kazakhstan industrialize.

Through unremitting efforts, by the time of the Soviet census in 1989, although Kazak was the largest nation, it accounted for only 39.7% of the total population, while Russia, the second largest nation, accounted for 37.8% of the national population!

Can you imagine that Kazakhs almost become ethnic minorities in Kazakhstan?

If the Soviet Union still exists, it doesn’t matter. Anyway, they are all in the Soviet family. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the population here is mainly Russian, and they obviously lack a sense of identity and belonging to Kazakhstan.

Therefore, Kazakhstan has always been in a situation of “three parts of the world”. The low-lying areas along the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea, the Russian inhabited areas in the north, and the seven River region in the East. The seven River region is the region of Kazakhstan with the earliest development, the largest population, and the most historical heritage. Almaty, the former capital of Kazakhstan, is located in the region.

??

In order to ensure that the country is not divided, Kazakhstan can only curry favor with Russia and carry out in-depth cooperation with Russia to suppress domestic separatist forces.

However, such flattery also undermines national sovereignty. For example, Russia sent troops to quell the unrest in Kazakhstan this year for the first time. But to be fair, which country really wants other countries’ troops to go into their own homes to quell chaos?

Therefore, whether Nazarbayev or Tokayev, whether official or private, it seems that exchanges and cooperation with Russia have been particularly frequent, but behind the scenes, Kazakhstan has been imperceptibly engaged in “de Russification”.

For example, when the Soviet Union collapsed, most Kazakhs actually did not speak Kazakh, only Russian. According to statistics, in 1989, more than 30% of Kazakh people could not speak their mother tongue at all, and less than 1% of them in cities could speak Kazakh. Even the cadres of the Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan could not speak Kazakh. When Nazarbayev was sworn in, he also spoke Russian.

??

However, after the independence of Kazakhstan, legislation immediately stressed that speaking Kazakh is the obligation of every citizen, and government documents should also be mainly in Kazakh. At the same time, it stressed that various formal occasions must use the “national language”, and college students’ graduation thesis should also be written in Kazakh. The state television station banned the broadcasting of Russian programs, dismissed the Russian Department and staff of the television station, and changed the website of the television station from Russian Kazakh bilingual to pure Kazakh.

In this way, Kazakh must be learned in both work and life, and Russian has become a language of little use.

At the government level, there are also some extremist organizations among the people who use language promotion to engage in ethnic persecution. For example, a Kazakh named Kut ahmetov founded a right-wing organization called “language Patrol”, which requires Russian Americans to speak Kazakh in public places such as restaurants and shops, and uses insults and intimidation.

??

HMM… is this quite similar to the practice of the Asian speed camp in Ukraine?

By 2012, thanks to Kazakhstan’s efforts, 64.4% of its citizens could speak Kazakh.

Another example is the population problem. In 1989, in the three states in Northern Kazakhstan close to Russia (Pavlodar, Northern Kazakhstan and kostanai), the Russian population accounted for the majority.

Kazakhstan is afraid in a dream. What if these three states vote for independence? (this is also the fundamental reason why Kazakhstan has never recognized Lugansk and Donetsk, who voted for independence by national referendum)

However, Kazakhstan did not dare to really persecute the Russian nationality. After all, Georgia persecuted the Russian nationality in South Ossetia and Ukraine persecuted the Russian nationality in Wudong. The lessons of the past are all there, so Kazakhstan made a decision that few countries dared to make up their minds: move the capital!

Kazakhstan’s original capital was Almaty in the East, thousands of kilometers away from the three northern states. The emperor was far away from the sky, and the government’s control was difficult to cover. Nazarbayev gritted his teeth and moved the capital to Astana (now the Nur Sultan), where there was a “son of heaven guarding the country”.

Astana is the capital of akmola state, just between the three northern states. The siphon effect of the capital has prompted a large number of Kazaks to migrate here, increasing the proportion of Kazakh people and diluting the Russian people. From 38.7%, 29.6% and 30.9% of the Kazakh population in the three northern states in 1999 to 46%, 34% and 36% ten years later, and the Russian nationality, which originally accounted for the majority, has become a minority.

??

At the same time, Kazakhstan also redraws the state boundaries, increasing the original 9 states to 14 states, so that the Kazak nationality basically occupies a relatively large population in all administrative regions of Kazakhstan.

If the population proportion is small, the opportunity to participate in the state power will naturally be less. In 1995, the ratio of Kazakhstan to Russia in the lower house of Kazakhstan was 2:1. Now, Russian parliamentarians are even less than 10%, which makes it clear that they do not want to participate in the national and social governance of Kazakhstan.

This behavior of boiling frogs in warm water has also triggered dissatisfaction among the Russian people in Northern Kazakhstan, and the undercurrent is surging. This year’s Russia Ukraine war has sounded an alarm for Kazakhstan. What about the northern Russian people’s referendum on independence? If there is repression, what if Russia also launches a “special military operation” against itself like Ukraine? Not to mention the right or wrong of Russia sending troops to Ukraine, this must have stimulated Kazakhstan’s sensitive nerves.

Therefore, it is understandable that Kazakhstan took the opportunity to keep a distance from Russia.

three

How to solve the agitation in Central Asia?

Kazakhstan’s “opposition” is actually just the beginning.

The pain points of Kazakhstan, the five Central Asian countries also basically exist. Now that Kazakhstan stands up and turns around, it is likely to have a “demonstration” and “driving” effect. At present, Russia’s strength is declining, the main military strength is concentrated in the west, and the Central Asian countries are facing economic crisis, if the United States intervenes, woos and instigates, Even support the extremist forces in Central Asian countries (in fact, they are already doing so), then whether it is the color revolution or terrorist attacks, it may cause a chaos in Central Asia, the hinterland of China and Russia.

If so, it will be a disaster for China and Russia.

Naturally, Russia need not say that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, whether it was the five Central Asian countries or the three Caucasus countries, in fact, Russia had always regarded Georgia as its backyard, and Georgia was disobedient and beaten by Russia; Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, which was also forced by Russia to sign an armistice agreement; Including the riots in Kazakhstan at the beginning of this year, Russia also sent troops in the name of CSTO.

??

Unfortunately, Russia is no longer what it was then. The economic volume of the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia is too small to support the healthy development of a complete industry; At the same time, the industrial development of the Asia Europe economic union is abnormal. The two largest economies in the union, Russia and Kazakhstan, are major energy exporters, and their own economic scale is limited. Industries are not complementary but competitive. Russia’s rivers are declining, and they have no surplus food at home, and they can no longer transfuse Kazakhstan like the Soviet Union.

To be honest, being the boss also needs to talk about interests. Otherwise, there is only obligation but no benefit. Who is willing to talk to you? At this time, if the United States intervenes, on the one hand, it encourages the west to completely cut off Kazakhstan’s oil pipeline, cut off Kazakhstan’s foreign exchange sources, and let Kazakhstan fall into a “debt crisis” and “foreign exchange crisis” like Sri Lanka, on the other hand, it uses aid as a bait to deceive Kazakhstan into signing MCC like Nepal, will Russia lose Kazakhstan forever?

Even if Kazakhstan is determined, what about Tajikistan? What about Kyrgyzstan? As long as the bait is big enough, someone will take the bait.

In fact, just last year, the United States revealed that it was studying the transfer of the armed forces evacuated from Afghanistan to Central Asia and the Middle East, and that the location would probably be Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This is obviously not casual.

For China, chaos in Central Asia is equally unbearable.

Kazakhstan is an important fulcrum of China’s foreign strategy. With the efforts of Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan is one of the few countries that actively participate in China’s strategic framework, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the the Belt and Road initiative and the Asian infrastructure investment bank.

??

Kazakhstan is related to China’s energy security. Kazakhstan is one of the main sources of natural gas imported by China. The natural gas imported from Kazakhstan pipeline accounts for 15% of China’s pipeline imports, which seems not too high. But the fatal thing is that if China wants to transport the natural gas from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which have the largest import volume, it must go through the Central Asia pipeline in Kazakhstan!

The natural gas supply of the whole Central Asia region to China accounts for nearly one-fifth of China’s natural gas consumption. If central Asia is in chaos, it is really possible for China to face gas shortage like Europe, and suffer from freezing in winter. It is also possible for the price of natural gas, an industrial raw material, to rise, which is transmitted to fertilizer, then to grain, and then to the whole livelihood industry, with a great impact on society.

There is also the the Belt and Road. Kazakhstan is the most convenient land route for trade exchanges between China and Europe. In a sense, Kazakhstan is the “Strait of Malacca” on land, which must not be lost.

For China, Central Asia was controlled by Russia in the past, and China’s management of East Asia depends on Russia’s face, which is obviously not in line with China’s interests. Similarly, Central Asia is infiltrated by the west, and its economy, politics and culture are controlled by the west, which is even more unacceptable.

????????????

Therefore, an independent, diversified and prosperous central Asia is most beneficial to China.

So how to solve the agitation in Central Asia? Since the Central Asian problem is caused by economic problems, it can only be solved by economic means.

As it happens, China is very good at economic problems and has ready-made solutions for Central Asian countries: the the Belt and Road.

In the past, we have heard a lot about the significance of the the Belt and Road to China, but few people have analyzed it. What is the significance of the the Belt and Road to Central Asian countries? Why should people cooperate with China’s strategy?

In fact, this is because the the Belt and Road is also of great benefit to Central Asian countries.

What is “the the Belt and Road”? In short, it means to say to Central Asian countries, are you short of money? Do you want to build roads? If you want, I’ll lend you money to help you repair it, and hire some local workers to drive your economic consumption capacity.

According to the official statement, it is to share high-quality production capacity with countries along the Silk Road, discuss project investment, jointly build infrastructure and share cooperation achievements. The ultimate goal is “five links” such as road connectivity, smooth trade, currency circulation, policy communication and people to people connectivity.

These “five links” are precisely what Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries lack.

Roads, mountains and roads, want to repair no money, no technology.

Trade, trade channels are controlled by Russia, and the sale is picked up by Russia.

Currencies, five currencies of five countries, have no international status and depreciate easily.

The policy is that the headache cures the head and the foot, and it is incoherent.

People, intrigues, and do not deal with each other.

China’s the Belt and Road is designed to solve these problems.

The road problem is not a matter at all in front of China, a construction maniac. For example, the new Eurasian land bridge railway starts from Lianyungang, Jiangsu, passes through Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Lanzhou, Urumqi, aktoka and ares in Kazakhstan, soliylitsk and Bryansk in Russia, Brest in Belarus, Warsaw in Poland, Berlin in Germany, and finally arrives in Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

At present, there are four major markets in the world: the European Union market, the East Asian market (China, Japan and South Korea), the ASEAN market, and the United States market.

See, three of the four markets are on the Eurasian road from east to west.

The Central Asian countries are the bridges of these three big markets, which are equivalent to Jingzhou in ancient China. As long as the three markets are connected, will Central Asia still worry about its development?

Kazakhstan is the first stop for the new Eurasian Continental Bridge to go abroad. This new material channel has 3000 kilometers in Kazakhstan. When the road is opened, the resources along the way can be realized, and the population and materials can flow, then the market will expand and the wealth will increase.

??

To take a simple example, Kazakhstan is a alfalfa producing country, and China’s feed is generally in short supply, otherwise this year will not happen to destroy wheat as green stock feed, but if alfalfa is sold to China as green stock feed, the traffic was inconvenient in the past, and it may be spoiled and lost by transporting it by truck for ten days, so many alfalfa can only be sold to Xinjiang and Gansu.

However, after the transportation is convenient, you will find that ten days is enough to sell all over China, and you will find that your market has suddenly expanded, the production volume has expanded, and you will earn more money.

Therefore, Kazakhstan is one of the most active countries on the the Belt and Road. Almost at the same time as the the Belt and Road was proposed, Kazakhstan also proposed the “bright road” new economic policy, which aims to develop Kazakhstan’s domestic infrastructure construction in transportation, industry, society and other fields, and develop Kazakhstan’s potential as a transit transportation hub.

You see, the “bright road” is a perfect match for the “the Belt and Road”. Compared with sea transportation, this route is faster, about 10 days faster than sea transportation, saving 20% of the cost. There are no typhoons and pirates on the road, which can be said to be a golden road.

By June 2021, the total number of China Europe trains has exceeded 40000, the cumulative value of goods has exceeded US $200billion, and 73 operating lines can reach more than 160 cities in 22 European countries. Kazakhstan, as the hub country on this road, accounts for a quarter of the total length, so it can obtain a lot of benefits. Apart from that, it can receive a soft hand if it collects tolls.

??

Trade issues are closely related to road issues. Central Asian countries are landlocked countries, and foreign trade can only be transported by land. Due to gauge reasons (the five Central Asian countries and Russia are all wide gauge), most products can only be sold to Russia, and can only be plucked by Russia. In this way, it also depends on Russia’s face. After all, without Russia, access to foreign exchange will be cut off.

However, with the launch of China’s the Belt and Road and the new Eurasian Continental Bridge, the five Central Asian countries suddenly found that selling resources to Russia was not the only option! On the one hand, the bargaining power is greatly increased; On the other hand, it can bring countless industrial products with high quality and low price through the the Belt and Road, and all this only needs to extract oil and natural gas and sell it to the Chinese people!

With the size of China, Chinese people can eat whatever resources you dig out, whether it’s gold, silver, copper, iron, uranium, lead, grain, cotton, oil, horse and sheep. As long as you have them, you can exchange them for commodities from China.

This is the real purpose of China’s the Belt and Road. To expand the market through China Unicom is to do incremental, and want to make the cake bigger. The bigger the cake, the increase of the middle class and the improvement of consumption capacity can also stimulate economic prosperity, so that everyone can enjoy the dividends of development and realize the community of a shared future for mankind.

As for the currency issue, since the economic and trade ties are close, it naturally involves the issue of settlement. The dollar is depreciating, and the United States is using the dollar cycle to collect wool. The euro is also falling sharply, and the ruble is strong, but this is based on binding oil and gas. There is no shortage of oil and gas in Central Asian countries, so the only option is RMB.

You see, now that China buys oil from the Middle East and iron ore from Australia, it has settled in RMB. Central Asian countries can follow suit. There is no need to worry about turning the money they earn into waste paper. No matter how much they earn, they can safely exchange for the industrial and consumer goods they need.

People’s problems. You should know that the railway is not only a line, but also many branches. When a straight line connects to the trunk line, it is equivalent to extending the economic tentacles to every corner of Central Asia, with economy as the link,

Connecting the originally scattered geographical plates in the territory can not only achieve economic take-off, but also promote national reunification politically.

At the same time, the the Belt and Road also promotes population exchanges and cultural exchanges. Many infrastructure construction in Central Asian countries are very backward, such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Although water resources are abundant, power generation and consumption are seasonal. Summer is enough, and winter may not be enough. China has been cooperating with them in these years, including the construction of roads, railways, power grids, and water conservancy facilities, And the transformation and upgrading of local infrastructure.

These cooperation, on the one hand, is of great help to improve the quality of life of local residents; On the other hand, it can also establish a good image of China and attract people from Central Asian countries to work, study and do business in China, and China’s influence in Central Asia will continue to grow. It can be said that the impression of this railway is no less than the China Laos (China Thailand) railway that can integrate the Indochina Peninsula.

Policy issues. When the previous problems are solved, the policy issues are nothing more. The strategic goal of the “the Belt and Road” is to establish a community of interests, a community of destiny and a community of responsibility with political mutual trust, economic integration and cultural inclusiveness. It is a community of interests, a community of destiny and a community of responsibility for mutual benefit for all countries in the world, including Eurasia.

Since everyone has common interests, unity and cooperation is a policy driven by interests. Even if any politician is not open-minded and wants to throw himself into the arms of the west, can the benefits brought by the West exceed the benefits brought by cooperation with China? I’m afraid that before the cooperation with the west is reached, it has been driven down.

Therefore, the the Belt and Road is the future for Central Asian countries. At present, world politics is becoming more and more polarized, the game is becoming more and more intense, and the economy is on the edge of global recession. No one knows whether there will be wars and disasters in the world tomorrow. At this time, it has become a natural choice for many countries to bind a vibrant economy, rely on the “World Island” and build a “eternal era” within the coverage of China’s influence.

four

future

At present, although Russia’s control over Central Asia has weakened, and Central Asian countries are ready to move because of economic reasons, for China, maintaining stability in the Central Asian plate is a common strategic demand of China and Russia. It’s OK to be awkward, but it’s not OK to lift the table, so they didn’t stand in line between the two countries and wait for their own discussion.

In fact, recently, senior Russian and Kazakh officials have begun to take the initiative to “put out the fire” for the recent “open” dispute. The spokesman of the Russian president stood up and said that Russia and Kazakhstan are still allies politically, and the two sides have maintained contact. The ruling of the Russian district court that the CPC pipeline was closed was also cancelled.

If China rashly intervenes, and now people are reconciled, will it not be a villain in vain?

Therefore, as long as China stands firm, does not directly intervene in the contradictions between Central Asia and Russia, focuses on its own the Belt and Road and economic construction, and binds Central Asia with economic interests, to a certain extent, the hidden troubles in Central Asia will eventually be resolved naturally.

This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *