Author: Kaifeng source: guominjinglv (id:guominjinglv) has been authorized to reprint
Hegang in small and medium-sized cities is becoming the norm.
Another city in Heilongjiang has also attracted attention due to house prices, following Hegang’s repeated list searches for “houses falling back to cabbage prices”.
As the fifth largest city in Heilongjiang, the housing price in Mudanjiang has fallen back to the level of 2007. At present, there are many houses with a total price of less than 100000 yuan on the market, and some of them are even less than 50000 yuan.
In case of a suite, what happened to Mudanjiang?
House prices back to 15 years ago
No one expected that the cities in Northeast China should go out of the circle one by one in this way.
Unlike Hegang, which was once unknown, Mudanjiang has always been one of the 70 large and medium-sized cities designated by the National Bureau of statistics.
You know, Suzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and other economically strong cities have not been among them.
However, in 70 cities, Mudanjiang house price trend has been at the bottom, and house prices have fallen back to 15 years ago.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, compared with 2020, the change of second-hand house prices in Mudanjiang is -15.4%, which is the only city in China with a double-digit decline, ranking first among 70 cities.
This is not the first time that house prices in Mudanjiang have fallen.
Since 2020, Mudanjiang house prices have been in a downward channel, falling for more than two years, without any signs of rebound.
Compared with the peak in 2019, Mudanjiang house prices have fallen by more than 22% in the past three years.
You know, this is still the average data. The halving of house prices in some remote areas may not be an isolated case, and it is not surprising that there will be Suites in case of 5.
In fact, Mudanjiang housing prices have not always been sideways, and have also recorded a huge increase of 50% in history, but ultimately cannot resist the constraints of economic, industrial and demographic fundamentals.
From 2006 to 2010, China’s real estate ushered in an epic rise. The housing prices in the first and second tier cities doubled collectively, and the housing prices in Mudanjiang once rose by more than 50%.
However, from 2011 to 2015, China’s real estate market was facing the first difficulty of high inventory. House prices in many cities were sideways, and Mudanjiang once fell by more than 20%.
Of course, this high inventory was finally turned around by a combination of price increases, destocking, and monetization of shed reform, and a new round of housing price carnival was launched in many cities.
In this carnival, although the overall increase in Mudanjiang was not high, the market recovered rapidly, and the local property market was once extremely hot.
However, the carnival will not last long.
Since 2020, under the impact of the slowdown in economic growth, the impact of the epidemic and the peak of the property market, Mudanjiang house prices have fallen all the way back to 15 years ago.
Industry insiders said, “now Mudanjiang is almost in the state of two or more suites per capita, and there is a large number of houses.”
5 in case the suite may be an isolated case, but it is an indisputable fact that the house price fell back to 15 years ago.
Population back to 40 years ago
House prices are only appearances after all.
As we all know, housing prices depend on finance and policies in the short term, land supply and demand in the medium term, and economic industries and population in the long term.
Behind the house falling back to the cabbage price, there is either something wrong with the economy, the population, or all of them.
The local official report on the problems faced by Mudanjiang has been outspoken:
Mudanjiang city has an underdeveloped economy, a small economic aggregate, an unreasonable industrial structure, a low level of urbanization, and a lack of large projects that can affect the city’s economic development, resulting in a lack of attraction in terms of remuneration, welfare, treatment, etc., which has exacerbated population outflows, especially among young and middle-aged people.
The total economic output of Mudanjiang River ranks fifth in Heilongjiang and top15 in Northeast China, but it is already below the level of the peak period, and the gap with the country is growing.
In 2021, the GDP of Mudanjiang was 87.5 billion yuan, and the per capita GDP was only 35000 yuan, less than half of the national average.
You know, ten years ago, Mudanjiang officially announced that its GDP exceeded 90billion yuan, and in 2017, it once hit a record high of 140.4 billion yuan.
Of course, these data are all preliminary data. After the fourth national economic census and local initiatives to squeeze water, Mudanjiang’s GDP in 2011 and 2017 was reduced to 50.4 billion yuan and 78.9 billion yuan respectively.
Compared with the economy, the population loss is more serious, with a population reduction of 500000 in 10 years.
As we all know, in the past 10 years, the population of the three northeastern provinces has decreased by 11million as a whole. Except for Shenyang, Dalian and Changchun, which have maintained positive growth, all other cities have decreased.
Mudanjiang is one of them. From 2010 to 2020, the permanent resident population of Mudanjiang decreased from 2.79 million to 2.29 million, a decrease of more than 18%.
Compared with the economic aggregate returning to 10 years ago, the population size of Mudanjiang has returned to the level of 40 years ago.
As early as 1980, the registered residence population of Mudanjiang has reached 2.21 million, which is equivalent to the current permanent population.
For Chinese people who are used to the high growth of economy, population and income, it is beyond imagination to return the economic aggregate to 10 years ago and the population to 40 years ago.
However, all this is really happening and spreading to more small and medium-sized cities.
When the industry declines
In small and medium-sized cities, Hegang and Mudanjiang are both representative.
Hegang is a typical resource exhausted city. It thrives because of coal and declines because of coal. The industry has not been transformed in time, creating today’s dilemma.
Unlike Hegang, Mudanjiang is also a resource-based city, but its dominant resource is not minerals, but forests. In addition, it is located in the world’s golden corn belt, milk source belt and black soil belt at 45 degrees north latitude, creating the leading position of the primary industry.
This can be seen from the three industrial structures of Mudanjiang.
In 2021, Mudanjiang’s primary industry accounted for 24.2%, while the secondary industry dominated by industry accounted for only 21%, which is a rare city where the proportion of the secondary industry is lower than that of the primary industry.
This data is contrary to many people’s traditional impression of Mudanjiang. As we all know, Mudanjiang was initially known as an industrial city. As an important old industrial base in Northeast China, the secondary industry once accounted for nearly 50%.
In the past few decades, Mudanjiang’s industrial share has been slashed. What happened?
At the same time, as a border city, Mudanjiang is adjacent to Russia, 209 kilometers away from ussurisk, the Far East transportation hub, 248 kilometers away from Vladivostok, the shipping hub, and 331 kilometers away from nahodka, the largest ice free port in the Far East.
In the era of heavy industry, Mudanjiang formed an industrial system represented by chemistry, machinery, textile and electric power, but these industries lost their competitiveness in the market era.
At the same time, the Russian economy is no longer what it used to be, and its Far East is a strategic neglect zone, so it is difficult to give full play to the regional advantages of Mudanjiang River.
Today, only ice and snow tourism, agriculture and forest industry are available in Mudanjiang. These industries are important, but it is obviously not enough to return Mudanjiang to its historical glory.
As a city of Yanbian, Mudanjiang has been at the forefront of foreign defense input in the past two years. It was closed due to the rebound of the epidemic, which has had an incalculable impact on the economy.
Despite the impact of the epidemic, how to break through the siege of Mudanjiang and Heilongjiang and how to revitalize the old industrial base in Northeast China are still a difficult problem.