Author: Mingshu source: official account: Mingshu Zatan wechat ID: laomingdashu
1) Yesterday, an internal speech of Ren Zhengfei was widely circulated on the Internet. Over the years, Huawei and Ren Zhengfei have been highly topical. Although they are very low-key, any information about Huawei and Ren Zhengfei can always become a hot topic. Ren Zhengfei’s speech this time made a very pessimistic prediction on the world economy. He proposed that “the global economy will decline for a long time, and Huawei should take survival as its main program”. Ren Zhengfei is one of the most strategic entrepreneurs in China today. Many people believe and trust his judgment. Yesterday, a friend said that after reading Ren Zhengfei’s speech, he felt that “winter is really coming”. Today, another friend said, “Ren Zhengfei’s speech brought down the whole A-share market.”. There are even extreme views that Ren Zhengfei’s speech tore off the so-called “fig leaf” of China’s economy.
2) For Huawei and Ren Zhengfei, it is certainly unexpected that an internal speech of an enterprise will generate such a strong external reaction. I believe this is definitely not the original intention of Huawei and Ren Zhengfei. For a long time, Huawei has emphasized focusing on its own affairs, rarely involved in social hot spots, and never took the initiative to create hot spots.
3) As for Ren Zhengfei’s judgment that the global economy will decline for a long time, we should first make it clear that this is an entrepreneur’s internal research and judgment on the global economic situation, which mainly serves the business management and decision-making of the enterprise itself. This speech is not external, nor is it addressed to the public. At the same time, since it is an internal judgment of the enterprise, it may be right or wrong, which is normal.
4) Both Huawei and Ren Zhengfei have a strong sense of crisis for a long time. There are thousands of books on Huawei in the market, but I always think that the book “will Huawei be the next to fall” written by Tian Tao is the best. The Chinese people say that “we should be born in adversity and die in happiness”. This has been very obvious in the process of Huawei’s entrepreneurship and development. When Huawei was most successful, it did not boast about its achievements and victories, nor did it establish a historical archive that extolled Huawei’s entrepreneurship. In recent years, the United States has used the power of a superpower to blockade, embargo and cut off supply to Huawei in an attempt to strangle Huawei in order to prevent China’s scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading. Huawei faces unprecedented difficulties and challenges. It is a miracle that Huawei can survive and survive with quality. This is not only a true embodiment of Huawei’s spirit of hard struggle, but also a true portrayal of the Chinese nation’s spirit of fearing power, not believing in evil and daring to struggle.
5) As for Ren Zhengfei’s warning, we can take it as an important input and reference to understand the world economic situation, but we should not superstitiously and deify Ren Zhengfei’s speech. This is definitely not Ren Zhengfei’s original intention. Whether we are individuals or enterprises, we live in the world every day. We know best whether the economic situation is good or not and how enterprises and individuals should make decisions. We should not imagine that Ren Zhengfei’s speech can be applied to every individual and every enterprise.
6) I have been doing international financial and economic reports for six or seven years. In recent years, I have written we media and continued to pay attention to global geopolitical issues such as Sino US games. Personally, I have been saying recently that Sino US relations will get worse and worse, and the world situation may get worse in the future. From a macro perspective, when the United States mistakenly defined China as the number one strategic competitor or even potential enemy of the United States and began to contain, suppress, encircle and slander China, this not only caused great damage to Sino US relations, but also seriously affected the possibility of the international community’s unity and cooperation and overcoming difficulties together. The United States pursued a hegemonic strategy and fought a proxy war against Russia in Europe through Ukraine, which had a serious adverse impact not only on Europe but also on the whole world. The extreme sanctions launched by the United States and its allies against Russia and the anti sanctions imposed by Russia have seriously impacted the world’s energy and food security, and the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain. At present, the United States is creating trouble in the Taiwan Strait region, and may turn NATO into an Asia Pacific region in the future. We should be vigilant that the United States is likely to extend its claws to the Asia Pacific region after disrupting Europe. All these have brought the most serious challenges to world peace, stability and prosperity since the end of World War II.
7) From an economic perspective, after the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 and the international financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve has implemented irresponsible “zero interest rate” and “quantitative easing” policies for a long time. Finally, under the impact of the epidemic, Russia Ukraine conflict, trade war and other factors, the “magic” bubble of the Federal Reserve began to disappear. At present, the US economy has fallen into a technical recession, while inflation remains high. Next, in order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, which is bound to further depress US economic growth and even trigger a financial crisis. Due to the negative externality of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the currencies of some countries have depreciated significantly, and the debt crisis has emerged. The world economy is indeed very bad.
8) In fact, China has always made clear studies and judgments on the grim external situation. From the central economic work conference at the end of last year to the two sessions and the Political Bureau meeting this year, China has always paid attention to it. This year, the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stable, and development must be safe. The pressure is unprecedented. However, at the same time, compared with the United States, Europe, Japan and other global developed economies, as well as some relatively vulnerable emerging economies, China’s economy still has some rare advantages in a bad environment. There is no doubt that China is currently facing various problems such as the impact of the epidemic, high temperatures, power cuts and restrictions, deep adjustment of real estate, and local debts. However, on the whole, China still has relatively abundant tools and space to cope with the economic downturn and stabilize economic growth. If the problem of the US, European and Japanese economies this year is whether they will fall into recession and how serious the recession is, the problem of China’s economy is how much the economic growth will decline. No one thinks that China’s economy will shrink and experience negative growth as in the United States, Europe and Japan.
9) Facing the same economic difficulties, western public opinion shows strong hypocrisy and double standards. In the face of the economic difficulties of the United States, Europe and Japan, they are often very “rational” and always “discuss things as they are”, and even intentionally or unintentionally downplay problems; However, in the face of any disturbances in China’s economy, they tend to write big books, not only exaggerating the various risks faced by China’s economy, but even blaming the specific problems faced by China’s economy on China’s “decision-making mistakes” and “system failure”. We should keep a clear mind about the rhythmic tendency that western media have always insisted on in their reports on China.
10) The economic situation is not good. At this time, we especially need to maintain the confidence of all market participants. Policies to stabilize economic growth should be more vigorous and targeted, and expectations of all parties should be stabilized. To ensure employment and the people’s livelihood, we need to take care of them so that the people can have income and dare to spend. Regulatory policies should be scientific, reasonable and stable, so that the regulated objects have clear expectations and reduce uncertainty and irrational concerns. Finally, the whole society should maintain a rational and pragmatic atmosphere, and always take seeking truth from facts as the basic principle of all words and deeds. In particular, we should reverse the irrational voice of enterprises, entrepreneurs and capital on the Internet over the past period of time. We should avoid conducting public opinion trials on Enterprises operating normally on the Internet, and especially give private entrepreneurs operating legally a sense of security and dignity.
P. S. the world situation is not good, and it is difficult for China to be immune from it. However, we should strive to keep China’s economic growth rate within a reasonable range. China’s livelihood needs to be well covered and improved. China’s people need unity and social stability. Although there are many risks and challenges, at any time, it is man-made. The historical experience of China’s reform and opening up over the years shows that as long as we adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts, the situation in China is often better than expected in the end.