Author: lukewarm source: official account: lukewarm studio has been authorized to reprint
Over the years, there have been rumors on the Internet in China that Japan’s overseas assets are extremely strong and that overseas assets have reached the “one Japan” level, which makes people’s ears cocoon.
Unlike “washing dishes seven times”, “toilet water can be drunk”, “special forces for primary school students with a load of 20 kg and a 50 km walk”, which is easy to see the logic of the boast, how many Japanese overseas assets, to understand it requires a certain amount of technical content, to multi-party verification, repeated comparison to know the true situation.
Therefore, seeing that Japan’s automobile industry is about to decline, coupled with the devaluation of the yen, Japan’s per capita GDP is about to fall sharply. Some people began to say that Japan’s overseas assets are much stronger, to prove that the Japanese are far sighted and the Yamato nation plans strategies. Unlike you Chinese, whose tail is cocked up with a little success, the Yamato nation’s ideological height, humanistic care and universal value are like coal buried deep under the Gulf of Tokyo, which is unpredictable, It’s unimaginable for you Chinese buns who eat gutter oil.
But it’s strange that every time I talk about Japan’s overseas assets, the data quoted are vague, and I have never made this matter clear. I just vaguely said that Japan’s overseas assets are very strong, so strong that I can blind your dog’s eyes. I’m very curious. First, I took the initiative to get a few reflection vouchers, and after a few days of reflection under the cherry tree, I washed my heart clean, ensured a correct attitude, and then I was devout and cautious, Go to trace the data of Japan’s overseas assets. Maybe what people say is right. If it is right, let’s study hard and admit that the gap is not shabby.
Therefore, the data mentioned below are subject to the official release of Japan.
According to the official data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance on May 27, Japan’s overseas net assets reached 411trillion yen in 2021, an increase of 15.8% over 2020, including 1250 trillion yen of total external assets and 838 trillion yen of external debt, all hitting record highs.
I went to check the historical data again. In 2001, Japan’s overseas assets were only more than 100 trillion yen, increased by 90% to 339 trillion yen in 2015, and the asset income increased from 8.2 trillion yen in 2001 to 20.7 trillion yen in 2015.
In 2001, the income of Japanese overseas assets was equivalent to 1.6% of Japan’s GDP, and in 2015, it was equivalent to 4% of Japan’s GDP, indicating that Japanese overseas assets did develop well.
Mainly thanks to the fact that Japan’s domestic GDP has remained motionless for decades.
In 2020, Japan’s overseas net assets reached 356 trillion yen, and in 2011, it jumped to 411 trillion yen. Such a big increase occurred in one year, mainly because Japan’s overseas assets were converted from dollars into yen, while the yen depreciated by 11% against the dollar in 2021, coupled with the investment income in the U.S. stock market, Japan’s overseas net assets ran so fast.
The yen fell sharply against the US dollar in 2022. It is conceivable that the data of Japan’s overseas assets will be better after the end of this year.
You may want to ask, why is Japan’s overseas assets growing so fast?
It’s very simple, that is, the local people can’t dig out the increment, so they have to go to other countries to find the increment.
In 1995, Japan’s GDP reached $5.55 trillion, while last year’s GDP was only $4.9 trillion in 2021. Local wealth has been pretending to be dead all year round. Looking at the data alone, Japan seems to have maintained its basic level for 30 years, but if global inflation is included, Japan has been in recession.
You know, in 1995, Japan’s per capita GDP was 44200 US dollars, but China’s per capita GDP was 609 US dollars! Japan’s per capita GDP is 72 times that of China! I read a Japanese memoir, saying that he couldn’t marry a wife in Japan in the 1990s and went to Shanghai for a blind date. As a result, on the day of the blind date, the intermediary sat in the room with a bunch of high-value young girls and let him choose. Even he was shocked.
Let alone compare China with Japan in 1995, even Africa can’t compare. Our per capita GDP is 40% of that year’s tenth place in Africa. If you tell the Chinese in 1995, our GDP will be more than three times that of Japan by 2022, and the per capita GDP will reach 12500 US dollars, I guess everyone will think that you drink too much nonsense and have to beat you.
If China’s data is too abnormal to make normal comparisons, let’s pick the data of India and South Korea and compare them with Japan, so we can know more about Japan.
In 1995, the total GDP of India was US $0.36 trillion, and the per capita GDP was US $373 (what a tragedy). In 2021, the total GDP of India was US $3.08 trillion, and the per capita GDP was only US $2300.
In 1995, the total GDP of South Korea was $0.57 trillion, and the per capita GDP was $12600. In 2021, the total GDP of South Korea was $1.79 trillion, and the per capita GDP reached $34000.
The per capita GDP of South Korea has risen from 28.5% of Japan in 1995 to 88% last year. Because of the sharp fall of the yen this year, economists generally predict that Japan’s total GDP will fall below $4trillion, so South Korea’s per capita GDP should surpass Japan in 2022, and India’s total will surpass Japan in the next two or three years.
Economists generally agree that by 2024, China’s total economy will exceed $20trillion, and China’s GDP will be five times that of Japan, that is, it will take only 15 years for China’s volume to grow from more than Japan to five times that of Japan.
This world is really too magical.
In 1995, ordinary Chinese people may not dare to imagine this kind of thing, because ordinary people always look at things with static eyes, and things are dynamic and constantly changing and developing.
The strong will decline one day, and the weak will become stronger one day. They develop in both directions.
In 1995, the total population of Japan was 125million. In 2022, the total population of Japan was 125million. However, the key point is that the average age of Japan in 1995 was more than 30 years old, and the average age of Japan in 2022 was 48.4 years old!
Japan is now the second oldest country in the world, first Monaco, Third Italy, and fourth Germany. The average age of these countries is 44 years old.
In a country without young people, whose average age is nearly 50, what about economic vitality? What about the future?
However, the current situation in Japan is also worthy of our vigilance. The average age in China is now about 37 years old. In 20 years, we will encounter exactly the same situation as Japan. Our last childbearing peak population will reach 45-50 years old, and now those who are 50 years old and can work will be 70 years old. China’s pension and economic development will encounter a huge pain point.
That is why the government has spared no effort to encourage us to have more lives. It is already preparing for things 20 years later.
Of course, the Japanese government also knows that they are aging, and the local economy is no longer working, so it has spared no effort to find incremental growth.
Japan encourages enterprises to actively expand their living space overseas and gives many preferential conditions:
Enterprises go overseas for investigation, investment and residence, and the government provides subsidies; Enterprises that go overseas for prospecting can be reimbursed 50-75%; Taxes paid overseas can be deducted, and taxes on overseas income can be delayed.
It is also led by the financial department to work with financial institutions to provide guarantees, insurance, loans, etc. for Japanese enterprises to carry out business overseas, which is mainly in the charge of the Japan Trade Promotion Agency, Japan trade insurance and the bank for international cooperation.
In addition, the Trade Policy Bureau under the Ministry of economy and industry is responsible for formulating laws and policies on foreign investment, and the Congress is responsible for examination and supervision.
Japanese enterprises have gone through four stages to go abroad.
In the 1960s, Japan only sold things to Southeast Asia and Latin America, mainly electronic products, automobiles and fibers. It invested a little less money in local joint ventures, with an average investment of only $1million. For example, in 1969, the annual overseas investment was only $665million.
It was in the 1970s that Japan officially engaged in overseas production. At this time, Japan’s industry also upgraded. It was able to build electrical appliances and machinery factories in the United States and Europe, and labor-intensive factories in Taiwan, China Province, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, and then sell these products to Europe, America and Japan. For example, in 1973, the one-year investment rose to $3.5 billion, and in 1978, it rose to $4.6 billion.
After the 1980s, Japan began to encounter growth bottlenecks and suffered a major blow from the Plaza Agreement. From then on, Japan realized the local ceiling and began to focus on overseas layout. In 1981, its foreign investment was only $8.9 billion, in 1984 it was only $10.1 billion, and in 1989 Japan suddenly reached a peak of $67.5 billion in overseas investment.
Japan was hurt by the Plaza Agreement, the yen was forced to appreciate, and the production cost was too high. “The sharp appreciation exacerbated the plight of Japan’s exports”, so it had to make up its mind to develop overseas, and the investment soared.
Without the Plaza Agreement, Japan will not have so many overseas assets now. This is not farsighted, it is just taking advantage of the trend.
After the 1990s, Japan accelerated its overseas expansion. In 1999 alone, overseas investment reached as high as 7.53 trillion yen, and then entered a period of steady development. It focused on investing in Asia. The more the industry invested, the more high-end it became. It has been building the overseas Japanese assets we see today.
Shinzo Abe has been in office for more than ten years, and the three arrows of abenomics he has developed are to print money, build infrastructure and reduce taxes. If he wants to build the local economy, he should no longer rely on overseas development. However, the aging of the local people is too serious, and the local economy is still pretending to be dead. The Japanese economy has risen, and the entity has not changed at all.
Today, Japan’s overseas assets are indeed the highest in the world, but the actual situation is seriously exaggerated.
Because this is high, in fact, it is not much higher.
As mentioned above, Japan’s total overseas assets in 2021 were 411trillion yen, ranking first, while Germany ranked second, with total overseas assets of 315 trillion yen, Hong Kong, China ranked third, with total overseas assets of 242 trillion yen, and Chinese Mainland ranked fourth, with total overseas assets of 226 trillion yen.
Russia, which is collectively excluded by western countries and cannot find a foothold, has a net overseas asset of 55trillion yen.
We often hear such remarks as “there is another Japan Overseas” and “overseas assets are much higher than Japan’s mainland”. According to this reason, why does Germany, with 315 trillion yen of overseas assets, never say “there is another Germany overseas”? Hong Kong is even more strange. With a population of just 7million, it has created 60% of Japan’s overseas assets of 125million people. Why does Hong Kong never advertise?
Germany’s GDP in 2021 was $4trillion, with a per capita GDP of $50000. Based on 2021 yen, their overseas assets were also close to their domestic GDP in one year. Germans never boasted that they “have another Germany overseas”.
Another important difference must be mentioned, that is, the GDP of a country refers to the wealth created by the country in one year, which is the increment, and the overseas net assets, which is the total stock. For example, my neighbor earned 100000 yuan this year, while all the assets of my family were only 110000 yuan. Do I say I am richer than my neighbor? The house and car savings my neighbor has accumulated over the years have not been counted at all.
411trillion yen is the total stock of all Japanese overseas assets, about equivalent to $4trillion in 2021, while $4.9 trillion is only the wealth created by Japan in one year. The total overseas stock is not as much as the increment of Japan in one year. How can it be called “there is another Japanese capital overseas”?
This is someone deliberately confused the concept, making people have the illusion that today’s Japan is still strong enough to be invincible, good PUA people.
In addition, this 411trillion yen is not a real wealth.
The money is divided into three parts:
The first part is the U.S. Treasury bonds purchased by the Bank of Japan. In fact, this money cannot be included. This is the money of the Bank of Japan, which cannot be put back into the economy for no reason.
The second part is the money invested by Japanese financial institutions, enterprises and individuals in the U.S. stock market and treasury bonds, which belongs to financial players.
The third part is the direct investment of Japanese enterprises abroad from 1960s to 2020, including factory construction, mergers and acquisitions, which is the real industrial money, the most stable and reliable money.
After all, only half of the 411trillion yen assets are real gold and silver, so it’s nonsense to say that there is a Japanese rumor overseas.
But after so many years of prosperity in Japan, don’t they really have any wealth accumulation? The per capita GDP was 72 times that of China.
Yes, speaking of it, Japan’s cultural and publicity work in China has been wrong. It has been promoting what overseas Japan is. In fact, what Japan really has money is their family savings.
According to the data released by the Ministry of general affairs of Japan in May this year, the average savings of Japanese households reached 18.8 million yen, equivalent to 920000 yuan.
The 920000 yuan is not all cash, but actually consists of 15.6% of marketable securities, 20.2% of life insurance, 27.4% of demand deposits and 35.8% of time deposits.
In addition, the debt of each family is 5.67 million yen, about 280000 yuan.
Japanese families have high savings, but there is a big problem. The money they save is in the hands of the elderly. The elderly have no sense of security and don’t spend money. It’s just that Japan is aging seriously now, so domestic consumption can’t start.
Japanese families under the age of 40 have an average deposit of 7.26 million yen, or 350000 yuan, but an average debt of 13.66 million yen, or 660000 yuan.
The average deposit of old people over 70 years old reached 23.18 million yen, or 1.13 million yuan, with almost no debt.
In other words, the wealth of the golden age of Japan’s economy is in the hands of a group of old men, but the old men don’t spend money, and the Japanese government can only do it in a hurry.
It seems that the biggest problem is aging.
Sooner or later, this phenomenon will also appear in China. China is now in the golden age of economy. When the post-80s and post-90s are old, the same situation as Japan will also appear.
So why are you still waiting? Give birth to children quickly and make contributions to the future of the nation.
After touching the data of Japan’s overseas assets, we found that the real core of Japan’s economy is still in their own land. Overseas assets are the largest in the world, but they are not so large, just used to publicize Japan’s powerful copywriting.
As China has also begun to explore overseas markets, China’s overseas assets will surpass Japan sooner or later.
With the crazy depreciation of the yen in 2022, Germany should surpass Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China Province in terms of per capita GDP this year, because the dividends brought by the semiconductor industry will also surpass Japan.
After Japan’s automobile industry is hammered to death by new energy from China and the United States, its economy will accelerate its decline. Now Japan should strive to maintain its position as a moderately developed country. If it doesn’t do well, it will fall into the goalkeeper’s area of developed countries. In another decade or two, if it’s not lucky, it may become a strengthened version of Thailand.
There are many external reasons for Japan’s economic downturn, but the internal reason is mainly aging. The elderly have too much money in their hands and don’t spend it, which has seriously hampered the national economy. China will also face the problem of aging. The lessons of Japan deserve our vigilance.
Still, if you have time to have more children, go home and have children quickly.
Finally, make a summary.
As for how strong Japan’s overseas assets are, it’s like a comparison I’ve made before.
Whenever an Indian is ready to boast, he just needs to open his mouth, and you know he is going to start boasting.
Whenever the Japanese are ready to boast, you will be a little stunned, and then you have to think carefully before you react that this TM is still boasting.