Original: Gu Ziming This article is authorized to be reproduced on WeChat official account: Political Affairs Hall Plus2019
In the past year, as the production costs of new energy vehicles and energy storage, as well as the output efficiency of artificial intelligence, have exceeded the threshold, certainty in some directions for the next 50 years has also begun to emerge.
Compared with history, AI semiconductor is like the steam engine of the first industrial revolution and the fuel engine of the Second Industrial Revolution; New energy is like the coal of the first industrial revolution, and the oil of the Second Industrial Revolution becomes the driving force of the next Campbell cycle.
And every industrial revolution will have some iconic figures.
In this wave, the representative of the new fuel engine is NVIDIA, while the representative of New Petroleum is Tesla.
Coincidentally, following Tesla CEO Musk’s high-profile visit to China in May, it is reported that NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun will also embark on his first visit to China in June.
Compared to the low-key behavior of Democratic gold medalists such as Apple, Starbucks, Morgan, and Intel, I estimate that Huang Renxun’s visit to China this time will also bring a whirlwind of influence and receive a higher standard of reception, just like Musk’s.
Because compared to those who have no place to spend money and choose to earn rent, Musk and Huang Renxun are more like “subverters” or “revolutionaries”. Their emergence is breaking the rules of game and profit distribution. With fewer hands, they must test their ideals to attract followers and raise more funds for the development of the industry.
Moreover, this group of disruptors who will be hated by the wealthy are well aware that they cannot rely solely on the United States. As a vested interest in globalization, the United States has an extremely strong power in the old order, and a disruptor can easily become Jia Yueting who “returns home next week”.
Therefore, in order for these subverters to succeed, they also need to bounce back and forth between China and the United States.
On the one hand, they need to take advantage of the competition between China and the United States to replicate the rare and affordable China during the US-Soviet hegemony period, and obtain the joint protection and support of the two powers. On the other hand, they also need to utilize the technology and talent of the United States, China’s labor force and market profits, and form a breakthrough in the shortest possible time.
China, which maintains a state of cooperation and competition with the United States, also needs to use these new industry revolutionaries to bring us more advanced ideas and industries for integration through repeated gunfire, providing a broad theoretical and practical base for these revolutionaries.
Therefore, following Musk’s arrival in Shanghai, he launched a huge investment and brought a series of new technologies. When Huang Renxun visits China, he will also bring us advanced AI chips, break the US embargo, and bring dawn to the development of China’s internet companies’ AI and cloud computing industries.
Of course, the opening up of these latest fields does not mean that the United States has abandoned its restrictions on China.
Since the 1970s, partial decoupling of mature industries that have been globalized for half a century (including traditional semiconductors) has become inevitable. Whether based on safety or labor costs, global capitalists in the United States are willing to shift their mature industrial chains to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central America.
But in the new field of increment, subject to the will of capital, China and the United States will still start cooperation. Musk will transfer the most advanced energy storage and automatic driving to China, and Huang Renxun will also break through the blockade and sell AI chips and related products to Chinese enterprises.
In the future, China can use Musk’s technology to develop a series of applications for autonomous driving and energy storage, and can also use AI semiconductor chips to develop endless AI applications and device terminals.
These fields will be the fastest developing areas in China’s future and the direction for the next generation of young people to strive for.