I can’t sit still! The United States has increased its defense in a high-profile manner, showing China its final card!

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Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (ID: rongping898) has been authorized to reprint

According to US media reports, lieutenant general Jon, director of the US missile defense agency Hill, when attending the space and missile defense seminar, revealed that in order to deal with the increasingly advanced missile system threat from China, including hypersonic weapons, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the US military is comprehensively upgrading Guam’s defense system to consolidate its position as a forward military fortress in the Western Pacific Ocean region.

In response, the conservative think tank and Intelligence Department of the United States claimed that the military facilities of Guam should be comprehensively strengthened in order to avoid the recurrence of the Pearl Harbor incident.

What is the implication? China wants to make a sneak attack on the United States like Japan!

This is not the first time that the United States has criticized and smeared China on the Guam issue. In June this year, John Aquilino, commander of the US Indo Pacific theater, claimed that China’s progress in naval vessels, missile technology and nuclear capabilities was the largest military construction since World War II, which increased the risk of attacking Guam.

John Aquilino, commander of the US Indo Pacific theater command

By comparing Guam to Pearl Harbor, it implies that China is Japan. This shameless operation of the United States has made at least two common sense mistakes that even primary school students know.

First, the nature of the war is different: the Hawaiian Islands to which the Pearl Harbor belongs are the territory of the United States. In that year, Japan’s surprise attack on the Pearl Harbor was a procedural violation of the territorial sovereignty of the United States; The motive is to seek absolute military hegemony in the Pacific region and use it as a springboard to attack the United States. This is absolutely a typical unjust war of aggression.

What China has solved is its own internal affairs. It does not infringe upon the territory of other countries, nor does it seek hegemony. It is not an unjust war in terms of procedure or motive.

Second, the targets of the war are different: China uses force to solve the problem. The target is Taiwan, not the United States, and it will not take the initiative to attack Guam under the jurisdiction of the United States. Of course, if the United States sends troops to intervene and uses the military bases on Guam to prevent our actions, according to the principle that the military bases involved in the war will expand the scope of attack wherever they are, attacking Guam is also within the optional scope.

Note that after the United States used Guam’s military equipment to intervene in China’s actions, attacking Guam is just in procedure, because Taiwan island is China’s territory, and the United States’ military action on China’s territory is an infringement of China’s territorial sovereignty. At this time, the nature of our attack on Guam is self-defense counterattack, not to mention an attack.

Since even primary school students understand the truth, why does the US military try to create an atmosphere in which Guam is another Pearl Harbor?

The answer is that the United States knows that if it interferes in the affairs of the Taiwan Strait, it will be illegal and unjust in terms of procedures and evil and not pure in terms of motives. Therefore, they urgently need to pull China to the same position and use the rumor that China will attack Guam to highlight the necessity of the United States sending troops in the future internationally.

Andreessen Air Force Base in Guam

Of course, the United States comprehensively upgraded Guam’s combat capability not only for the purpose of cooperating with and smearing, but also for the purpose of strengthening the so-called strategic ambiguity policy and exerting psychological pressure on China, that is, through the high-profile large-scale deployment of Guam, to increase the credibility of the United States that it will use military means to prevent China’s reunification, thus forcing China not to act rashly in Schrodinger’s decision to send troops.

But is the question useful?

The premise for strategic ambiguity to take effect is that China’s military strength in the Western Pacific region is weaker than that of the United States, and the probability of losing a war is very high. Only under such circumstances can the United States increase the credibility of military intervention play a deterrent role for China, and vice versa.

Similarly, whether the United States can successfully deploy Guam to deter China depends on whether Guam can always be in a safe state during the war. In other words, whether we have the ability to destroy Guam and make it completely lose its offensive ability of taking off and landing fighters.

Guam, located in the south of the Mariana Islands, is the largest military base of the United States in the Western Pacific, about 3000km away from Chinese Mainland and 2700km away from Taiwan.

Guam was originally controlled by Spain. In 1898, due to its defeat in the Spanish American war, Spain’s sphere of influence in America and Asia was seized by the United States, including Guam.

During the Pacific War, Guam was first captured by the Japanese army and then recovered by the United States. According to the United Nations, Guam is now a non self governing territory and is entrusted by the United States as an overseas territory. In other words, Guam is not legally a territory of the United States, which may become a contract in the future. A contract concerning whether the United States can continue to exist in the Western Pacific region.

In different historical periods, Guam has played different roles. The cold war is too far away, so I will not introduce it first. Before this century, in the US military action plan on the Taiwan Strait, Guam played the role of logistics supply center, because the US military was confident that only two aircraft carrier battle groups or two fighter wing deployed at Kadena air force base could easily eliminate China’s sea and air forces.

In 2010, China’s anti-ship ballistic missile df21d was successfully targeted. After the United States learned the news, it quickly adjusted its military deployment in East Asia. Aircraft carriers of both political and military significance no longer ventured into China’s coastal waters, and part of its air force turned to Guam.

At this time, the US military began to upgrade Guam’s military facilities in a targeted manner, such as renovating the auxiliary ammunition supporting equipment of the apron and improving the maintenance work of bomber hanging ammunition; Increase the density of THAAD air defense system; Add steel structure protective cover to the open apron. By 2016, Guam will be able to accommodate three air combat squadrons, berth 80 ships, store 200 million liters of fuel and hundreds of thousands of various types of airborne ammunition.

Two years later, the United States came to a conclusion in its military exercises: with China developing the world’s most advanced and perfect medium and short-range ballistic missile system, the military base groups in the first island chain such as Kadena are no longer safe, and may not be able to withstand the first wave of attacks from China.

Therefore, the US military decided to move all the military centers of gravity in the Western Pacific region to Guam. So far, Guam has officially completed all the transformation from the US military logistics supply center to the outpost. In other words, Guam has become the main forward base for the US military to use troops in the Taiwan Strait.

Seeing this, some knowledgeable partners will surely ask: did the United States not consider the factor of df26?

Df26 is a newly developed medium and long-range ballistic missile with both nuclear and conventional functions in China. It has a range of more than 5000km, has a certain mobile orbit change capability and high-speed penetration capability, and can be used for anti aircraft carrier operations and ground attacks. It is known as the killer of the island.

However, the United States does not believe that we can completely destroy the offensive capability of Guam’s fighter planes.

Whether ballistic missiles can destroy Guam’s air force base and make it impossible for the US military to send air forces to the airspace over the Taiwan Strait to compete for air supremacy depends on the following four points:

First, the US military’s antimissile capability;

Secondly, the number and accuracy of missiles;

Second, the speed at which the US military engineers repaired the runway;

The last is the acquisition of information on the damage and repair of the runway and the supplementary shooting.

The stronger the antimissile capability, the more missiles will be needed. The US military pointed out through simulation calculation that, based on the interception rate of 50%, China wants to block at least 100 of the four runways, and if there are hypersonic warheads, the number will be reduced to 60. However, with the help of modern engineering machinery and advanced modular technology, the battlefield repair work in the 21st century can be completed in three to five hours at most.

At this time, whether or not we can continue to block the runway and cut off the source of interference by us warplanes depends on our Battlefield Intelligence Acquisition and the number of supplementary missiles.

If China’s reconnaissance system can acquire battlefield information at the first time and conduct targeted supplementary firing to achieve the purpose of all-weather blockade in wartime, hundreds of df26 will be required; If China’s reconnaissance system fails to acquire damage management information, it can only launch a wave blindly every three to five hours. In this case, more missiles are needed to achieve the same effect, and even thousands of missiles may be needed.

However, in either case, the United States believes that China does not have enough df26 stocks. The answer is simple: this thing is too expensive. The cost of a single df26 is as high as US $100 million, and the warhead with hypersonic weapons is more expensive. According to China’s military expenditure structure and the proportion obtained by the Navy and air force, the United States estimates that the number of df26 equipment should not exceed double digits, which means that China cannot complete the all-weather blockade of Guam’s air force in wartime.

However, it seems that the United States has forgotten one thing: it does not necessarily have to rely on df26 to blockade Guam all day.

The df26 with hypersonic weapons is a pioneer. After it suppresses Guam’s combat power, we can take advantage of the short window period for the US military to repair military facilities to supplement shooting with low-cost cruise missiles. For example, the j-20 is launched by covering the bomber 6 with the support of the oil tanker 20, or is attacked by cruise missiles carried by submarines.

What’s more, we can also let the naval surface ships participate in the supplementary firing according to the trend of the US aircraft carrier fleet. If all the US aircraft carriers in the Pacific region are pressed against the periphery of the Taiwan Strait, our aircraft carrier formation will have the opportunity to use carrier aircraft or ship launched cruise missiles to attack during this empty window.

This is not impossible. In June 2019, our aircraft carrier battle group of Liaoning warship went to the waters near Guam to conduct sea air joint exercises when the only aircraft carrier of the US military was conducting exercises in the South China Sea.

Of course, in the final analysis, if we want to eliminate the threat of Guam once and for all without risking any potential military risks, the only reliable solution is to install ultra long-range stealth strategic bombers like the B2 ghost as soon as possible. Therefore, how can the United States be sure that on the day of the showdown, the Chinese version of B2 will not suddenly emerge?

The news of H20 is so confusing that the United States can not rule out the possibility that it will be shown as a card at the last moment

To say the least, even if China can do nothing about Guam, can the United States definitely win?

Guam is 2700km away from the central point of the Taiwan Strait, which is beyond the operational radius of all US fighter planes. Long-range operations will, on the one hand, consume pilots’ energy and lead to a decline in operational level. On the other hand, refueling planes that fuel fighter planes also need fighter escort, which will divert the limited number of fighter planes in Guam itself.

China’s air power ranks second in the world and first in Asia, and it is supported by a huge shore based and sea based air defense system and an anti-ship ballistic missile system. Since the US military is a necessary division, and its combat strength has been diverted, it would be a fool’s dream to defeat China, which is ready for work and has high morale.

In fact, the US military dilemma in Guam is also the dilemma of its entire Taiwan Strait policy. Strategic ambiguity does not work, nor does strategic clarity.

The dilemma of strategic ambiguity lies in the fact that China is 100% confident of winning the US military in the first island chain. The US psychological tactics of intimidating children, which are right and not refusing to welcome, can no longer intimidate China; The dilemma of strategic clarity is that even if the United States explicitly says that it wants to protect Taiwan militarily, it will not change China’s determination to reunify, nor will it change the outcome of China’s inevitable reunification and the inevitable failure of the United States!

However, there is still an optimal solution for the dead end of the United States in the Taiwan Strait:

Asians are Asians of Asia

US imperialism, get out of East Asia!

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