Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
The South Korean government of Yin Xiyue openly announced that it would continue to expand the deployment of the “THAAD” anti missile system. This will be a very serious political event for Sino South Korean relations, and the consequences will be very serious.
Just after the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the ROK, Cui Yongshan, spokesman of the ROK foreign ministry, declared at a press conference that the “THAAD” anti missile system concerns the national security and sovereignty of the ROK, and the ROK government will not compromise with any country on this issue. Cui Yongshan also said that the ROK is now promoting the deployment of the “THAAD” system in order to deal with the nuclear missile threat of the DPRK and safeguard the national security of the ROK. Cui Yongshan also emphasized that the Chinese side may have different views on this, but according to the understanding of the ROK, the Chinese side is very clear about the ROK’s position.
In fact, during the recent visit of South Korean Foreign Minister Park Zhen to China, South Korean President Yoon sik Hyok also made a similar statement, but because everyone was paying attention to the improvement of Sino South Korean relations at that time, he did not give a strong response to this voice. However, judging from the attitude of Cui Yongshan, spokesman of the South Korean foreign ministry, it is true that South Korea will come next!
What is the biggest factor affecting China ROK relations? Is it a chip? The answer is No. There is no doubt that the “THAAD” anti missile system is the one that really affects China ROK relations, because it concerns China’s national security.
The best period of China ROK relations occurred during the park Geun hye government, and the worst period also occurred during the park Geun hye period. In the first half of Park Geun hye’s term of office, China ROK relations were very good, and the balance between China and the United States was very good. Park Geun hye was even invited to Tiananmen Square at the military parade marking the 70th anniversary of China’s victory in the war of resistance against Japan on September 3, 2015, and enjoyed the same standard of treatment as Russian President Putin.
However, in the coming year, park Geun hye staged a major change of face. On the one hand, she was under political pressure from North Korea’s nuclear test, and on the other hand, she was under pressure from the United States and domestic public opinion. Following the advice of her aide Cui shunshi and others, she introduced the American “THAAD” anti missile system. Obviously, park Geun hye’s government did not correctly assess the political consequences of the introduction of the “THAAD” anti missile system. As we all saw, China ROK relations instantly dropped to the freezing point.
The “THAAD” ABM system is essentially an embodiment of the game between China and the United States in South Korean politics, so it is bound to bring a huge earthquake to South Korean politics. Later, everyone also knew the result. The fierce competition between big powers finally led to fierce confrontation in the Korean political arena, and park Geun hye was imprisoned in the confrontation.
China and the ROK have just celebrated the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Frankly speaking, the relationship between China and South Korea over the past 30 years has not been easy and has experienced many bumps. Objectively, China is trying to accommodate South Korea, and does not want South Korea to become a pawn for the United States to suppress and contain China, and eventually become a victim of the great power game.
In fact, the fundamental reason why the “THAAD” issue did not bother China ROK relations too much later is that Moon Jae-in made a political commitment of “three noes and one limit” to China after he took office. The “three noes” mean that the ROK will not join the US anti missile system, the ROK will not form a tripartite military alliance with the United States and Japan, and the ROK government will no longer consider deploying additional “THAAD”. The “one limit” means that the ROK will restrict the use of a set of “THAAD” systems imported to avoid harming China’s national security interests.
However, during the election campaign, Yin Xiyue publicly declared that once he was elected, he would deploy “THAAD”. After coming to power, he also declared many times that he would deploy “THAAD” and overturn the “three no’s and one limit” promised by the Moon Jae-in government. In fact, Yin Xiyue probably underestimated the consequences of what he did. Park Geun hye was imprisoned for deploying “THAAD”. If Yin Xiyue fails to handle this issue well, the consequences may be more serious than Park Geun hye.
Compared with five or six years ago, today’s Sino US relations have deteriorated too much. If Park Geun hye destroyed China South Korea relations last time, causing heavy losses to the South Korean economy and national security, and put herself in prison, then this time it is not Yin Xiyue’s imprisonment, nor is it just an economic impact. It may bring war to South Korea, and it will seriously affect the future development of South Korea!
All kinds of signs indicate that Yin Xiyue’s Government may be trying to play a speculative game. On the one hand, keeping a distance with the United States on the Taiwan issue is the fundamental reason why Yin Xiyue and foreign minister Park Zhen did not see Pelosi when she visited the ROK, and they also made clear their positions at the first time. Since then, on the issue of the quad alliance of chips, South Korea has not fully agreed with the United States and has been trying to delay it. On the other hand, Yin Xiyue’s government wants to side with the United States on the “THAAD” issue, and even wants to be close to NATO and the US Japan ROK military alliance. This is very, very dangerous!
In the opinion of Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), if South Korea wants to deceive China on this issue, the consequences will be very serious. There are at least two very serious consequences:
1? South Korea’s economy will lose momentum for sustainable development
How much has South Korea benefited from China’s development? Let’s look at a set of figures. According to the global times, according to the latest statistics released by the Korea Trade Association on August 23, the total export volume of South Korea to China last year was 162.913 billion US dollars, 162.4 times that of 1.003 billion US dollars in 1991 before the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Over the same period, South Korea’s total export volume increased from 71.88 billion US dollars to 644.4 billion US dollars, an increase of only nine times. Over the same period, South Korea’s exports to the United States increased by 4.2 times from US $18.559 billion to US $95.902 billion, and its exports to Japan increased by 1.4 times from US $12.356 billion to US $30.062 billion. Compared with this, South Korea’s exports to China can be described as a geometric progression. In the whole year of 2021, South Korea’s exports to China accounted for more than a quarter of its foreign exports. In fact, while China’s trade continues to maintain high growth, South Korea’s trade with China has shown a negative growth of 2.5% in July, and it has run a trade deficit with China for three consecutive months. It has to be said that Yin Xiyue’s coming to power has objectively affected Sino Korean trade.
In particular, it should be pointed out that if South Korea really joins the four nation chip alliance of the United States, it will certainly lose the Chinese chip market in the future. In 2021, the chip consumption in mainland China exceeded 190 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 40% of the global consumption, and it is expected to reach 50% by 2030. In 2021, China imported 635.48 billion chips in the whole year, with an import volume of 440 billion US dollars, more than twice that of oil, about 2.8 trillion yuan. South Korea’s export of chips to China is nearly 30 billion US dollars, which is less than 10% of the total import volume.
As we all know, Korean brands used to be very popular in China, and Samsung mobile phones in Korea used to be the largest brand in the Chinese market. Because Korea moved its foundry out of China and made friends with China over the THAAD issue, Samsung disappeared in the Chinese market only about two years against the background of the rise of domestic mobile phones in China. Samsung mobile phones have disappeared so quickly in the Chinese market. In the final analysis, it is the strength of domestic products and the rise of Chinese brands and manufacturing. In fact, it is not only Korean brands that are affected by national relations, but also American, Japanese and European automobile brands, which have been greatly affected in recent years!
Cars of the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea have all been affected. Who has eaten these markets? Of course, it was eaten by China’s national automobile brands! Fundamentally speaking, the reason why we have the strength to replace these foreign goods is because the technology manufacturing level of China’s own national brands has improved.
The design and manufacturing level of Chinese cars have reached this level, and Korean brands have gradually lost the market. With the rise of Chinese brands, including American, German and Japanese brands, the same is true. Now, what else is there in Korea? Isn’t there only chips left? There are also nearly $30 billion worth of exports to China every year. However, the problem is that if South Korea still dies, then I’m afraid the chip opportunity will also be lost. The reason is very simple. China has invested a lot of resources in the whole industry chain of chips. The United States wants to engage in the so-called “four party alliance” to keep China out of the chip supply chain and then sell high-priced chips to China; China is accelerating the localization of the whole chip industry chain, and both sides are scrambling for time. Frankly speaking, China now wants a market, money, talent and technology. Chip manufacturing is just a technological issue. Western countries can do it, and China can certainly do it. What is lacking is only time.
Whether South Korea violates the promise of “three no’s and one limit” and confronts China politically, or joins the US chip Quartet, the result is the same, that is, it will be excluded from the Chinese market in the future. South Korea has already suffered losses in the fields of Samsung mobile phones and automobiles. Do you want to suffer another loss in the chip? Therefore, it is time for South Korea to choose.
2? It may trigger a war on the peninsula
If it is said that chips are only an economic problem, then if South Korea is confused again on the “THAAD” issue, the consequences may not only be economic damage, but may bring war to South Korea. “THAAD” concerns China’s national security and is a military weapon used by the United States to try to contain China through South Korea. As China’s neighbor, South Korea’s own security is definitely not based on the threat of a big neighbor, nor can it play the role of taking China as the “number one opponent”. Therefore, China will not have bargaining space with South Korea on the “THAAD” issue. The reason why China has exercised restraint on the “THAAD” issue a few days ago is that it hopes that the ROK will understand the significance of China to the ROK, but it is definitely not conniving at the ROK to break through the “three no’s and one limit” to contain China.
Theoretically, as long as South Korea continues to adhere to the “three noes and one limit”, the “THAAD” ABM system will still be a problem between China and South Korea, but it will only be a thorn and will not really affect the normal development of China South Korea relations. However, if South Korea breaks through the “three no’s and one limit”, it is equivalent to tearing up the commitment of the Moon Jae-in government. The predecessor of a government has promised, and the president of another country will tear it up. Isn’t that the United States? Where is there any credibility to speak of? As long as the Yin Xiyue government takes this step, Sino ROK relations will be severely damaged. This time, a heavy blow will give a country a hot pillow, that is, North Korea.
As far as North Korea is concerned, it is impossible to lift the sanctions according to the current state of the United States, and it can’t develop its economy anyway. If South Korea wants to break through the “three no’s and one limit” and play the role of the United States’ pawn and vanguard in suppressing China, threatening China’s national security, it also threatens North Korea. At that time, North Korea thinks it is appropriate to fight a war, and then the war may really start.
Maybe someone will say, will you fight? not always. However, if the outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait means that direct conflict may break out between China and the United States, in this case, if there is a place that can replace the direct confrontation between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, I am afraid that the Korean Peninsula is a good place for everyone to fight indirectly. In fact, the North Korean side has long recognized this historical opportunity. Before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Kim Jong Un had stated twice in a row that he could start a war at any time. Under such circumstances, if South Korea still wants to provoke China and stimulate the situation on the peninsula, it may really bring disaster.
If a war really breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, and if China and the United States are finally involved, who will have more power on the Korean Peninsula? We all know that China is stronger with our eyes closed. Then, if the contradictions are so intensified, can South Korea still exist in peace?
Therefore, the ROK must think about the consequences carefully. It must not deceive China on the issue of Geopolitical Security. It must not expect China to swallow the bitter fruit of national security to complete the self righteous balance between the ROK and China. The only balance that South Korea can maintain is not to cooperate with the United States to suppress China, otherwise there will certainly be no good fruit to eat!