Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
Recently, John Kobe Bryant, spokesman of the White House National Security Council, showed two completely different reactions when answering the question that China and India both bought Russian oil. The main idea is that China’s import of Russian oil is an obstacle to “global security”, while India’s purchase is based on “the decision of a sovereign state”.
This is not the first time that the United States has shown a tolerant or even spoiled attitude towards India’s actions. Why does the United States show two faces when it acts the same way as China and India?
That is because China poses a threat to the United States, while India does not pose a threat for the time being. The United States regards China as a strategic competitor and encircles China everywhere. India, obviously an ally of the United States, is intended to be used as a pawn to contain China. Therefore, the United States is full of hostility to China, both in words and actions. As for India, the United States seems to have a difficult feeling.
Why can India be so wayward?
India is the most important focus of the U.S. strategy of returning to the Indo Pacific region. As India has joined the Indo Pacific economic framework, the economic volume of this organization can barely compete with RCEP, and the U.S. has the capital to contain and contain China.
However, India is undoubtedly the most disobedient ally in the “four nation mechanism of the United States, Japan, India and Australia”. Unlike Japan and Australia, India always shows great individuality.
After the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian war, India’s attitude gave the impression that it remained neutral. India avoided direct condemnation of Russia and did not join the camp of sanctions against Russia. Indian netizens not only supported and supported Russia on the Internet, but even expressed their hope that India would help Russia attack Ukraine. Western countries are increasingly worried about India’s stance.
Japan and Australia followed up with the US and Europe to launch sanctions against Russia, while India not only did not follow up, but also snapped up Russian oil on a large scale. Since the United States says that China’s purchase of Russian oil has reduced the effectiveness of its sanctions, isn’t India’s oil grab also a failure of us and European sanctions?
However, the United States has shown more helplessness towards India, and even dare not say anything more. Compared with previous meetings between the United States and India, Biden tried to persuade modi not to fund Russia, but India did not respond to this. Now Biden even gave up his advice.
At the end of March, after India announced that it would increase the import of discounted oil from Russia, Biden criticized India as an exception to the “Quad” and “not firm” in confronting Russia.
In April, Biden beat modi again in a phone call. He told modi that the US government would help India find more sources of oil imports, and “very clearly pointed out” that increasing imports from Russia was not in India’s interests.
In response to the questions from the United States, Indian Foreign Minister sujiesheng responded that all parties should focus on Europe, because the amount of energy India buys in a month may not be as large as the Russian energy that Europe buys in an afternoon.
The United States has no choice but to see India so wayward. Because strategically, the United States needs India to be able to check and balance China from the West. Whether economically or militarily, if India, a big power, participates in the containment of China, the pressure of the United States itself will be much smaller. This is the fundamental reason why the United States has turned a blind eye to what India has done.
In the Indian Pacific strategy, without India’s participation, the United States’ plan to contain China in the Asia Pacific will lose more than half. Therefore, in any case, the United States should stabilize India. Even if India does not participate in the sanctions against Russia, the United States will not do anything to India. For India, at present, the United States can only lure, not intimidate.
In order to win over India, since late March, dalip Singh, deputy assistant for national security affairs of the US White House, and Elizabeth trass, British Foreign Secretary, have visited India one after another. On April 11, modi held a video conference with US President Biden. On April 21, British Prime Minister Johnson also visited India for two days to try his best to win over India’s mind. In May, Biden’s Asian tour also beat Modi, but India was very interested in Biden’s idea. Modi did not talk about Russia at the Quartet meeting, and his attitude towards Russia was significantly different from that of the other three participating countries.
In order to prevent India from falling over to Russia, the US government is luring India to give up Russian weapons that have been equipped with troops since the Soviet era.
In April, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing: “we have made it clear to India and other countries that we do not want them to rely on Russian weapons to meet their defense needs.” Kirby specifically said that the United States “appreciates” its military partnership with India, which has joined the Quartet together with Australia and Japan. Derek shawlett, an adviser to the US State Department, also said that the US is ready to cooperate with India to help it diversify its weapons suppliers.
But India has always pursued a pragmatic diplomatic strategy. Although modi has a distinctive Hindu nationalist color, he is also a pragmatist. When dealing with foreign relations, he will not be “emotional”, but will take India’s national interests as the highest criterion. Not only can India’s deep dependence on Russian weapons not be unbound, but modi is not interested in Biden’s “meagre” investment of $50billion over five years in the Indian Pacific economic framework.
The reason why the United States is so tolerant and preferential to India is that India does not yet pose a threat to the hegemony of the United States, but winning over India can build a stronger force for the United States to deal with China and Russia.
Now India’s GDP ranks sixth in the world. Like China 20 years ago, it can develop at will before it becomes a threat to the United States. At the same time, it can pose a threat to countries that the United States considers to be its own threat. That is the purpose of the United States.
The fact that the United States has become India’s largest trading partner is purely the result of political forces. China India trade is a market economy hindered by diplomacy, while US India trade is a market economy encouraged by diplomacy. The continuous strengthening of us India trade relations has both epidemic factors and India’s attempt to “decouple” China.
However, the security factor occupies an important position, that is, with the help of the “fear of China” mentality at home and abroad, India accelerates the “industrial substitution for China”. As far as China is concerned, the fundamentals of China India Economic and trade cooperation have not changed at present, but we should be vigilant against the United States India joint “decoupling” China in the future.
How should China face India?
India’s economic aggregate is only one fifth of China’s, and its military is not China’s opponent. But India has always cherished a strong great power ambition rooted in its strategic culture.
It is said that India is the biggest threat to China. Even India is full of confidence.
Where do Indians get confidence?
On the one hand, they believe that India can buy the most advanced weapons from the world, so the weapons of the Indian army are more advanced than those of the people’s Liberation Army.
On the other hand, it is related to the geography of China India border in the territorial dispute. The Chinese side is located on a plateau. Due to the harsh natural environment, it is sparsely populated and is not suitable for stationing troops. Moreover, the supply line is particularly long. On the Indian side, the terrain is low, the temperature is slightly high, the population density is large, and it is more suitable for garrison, and the supply line is short.
In addition, India’s confrontation with China, to a large extent, is to send an investment certificate to the United States to undertake the industrial transfer from the United States and the West. Apart from territorial disputes, what is more important is economic competition between China and India.
American hawks absolutely want to decouple from China, but the US economy is decoupled from China. The US forces other allies to decouple from China. We must find a home to undertake China’s manufacturing capacity. India has a population size similar to that of China. Although its population quality is not high, it is still the first choice of the United States.
For China, there are contradictions between China and India, but they have not yet reached the point of irreconcilability, and there is still room for manoeuvre. However, China US relations have moved towards an irreconcilable state under the logic of imperialist bandits. Through India’s Pro Russian stance in the Russian Ukrainian war, the US India relations are divided. Even if China and India cannot become friends and resolve their grievances, India must not be allowed to stand on the side of the United States.
Both China, the United States, Russia and India have their own ideas and positions.
China is an important competitor, but it is also an important trading partner.
The bottom parts of Indian industry are largely dependent on China, which is a fact that the West cannot change. In the life of Indians, from screws to televisions, refrigerators and mobile phones, daily necessities are mostly Chinese goods. Chinese goods are of good quality and low price, which can hardly be matched by those of other countries. They are deeply loved by Indian consumers. Even Indian God worship appliances come from China.
Even if the United States replaces China as India’s largest trading partner, from the perspective of trade goods, India’s products exported to the United States are low-end, while the products exported by the United States to India are not high-end, mainly energy, metals and agricultural products. The degree of dependence on such trade is very low. As long as the Indian government deregulates the import and export of commodities, China will soon become India’s largest trading partner.
The United States is an ally, but India is also a pawn.
The United States regards India as an important ally in the Indo Pacific region, but its purpose is to use India as a pawn to contain China. Modi knows this. When there is value in use, she is Xiaotiantian. When there is no value in use, she will become an outcast. The old routine and hypocrisy of the United States have been exposed and shown to the world through the Ukrainian war.
It is no exaggeration to say that there are very few true allies with the United States against China. They are integrated into repeated small alliances, including the “Quartet security dialogue” mechanism, the “five eye alliance” and the “Australia UK US alliance”. India’s alignment with the United States in terms of objectives remains to be proved. Although India is indeed deeply worried about China’s position in the border dispute and the activities of the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean, it is also well known that India advocates autonomy in action, which makes India reluctant to form an alliance.
Russia is a supplier of military energy and has inextricably linked relations with India.
In the field of energy, the two countries have carried out close cooperation. According to Indian official data, India’s investment in Russia is expected to exceed 13billion US dollars, most of which are concentrated in oil and gas projects. Russia has also signed an agreement with India on the peaceful use of nuclear energy to build up to 16 nuclear reactors for nuclear power generation.
The most stable and important cooperation between India and Russia is still in the military field. In recent years, India has begun to increase arms imports from other countries, but Russia’s position remains unshakable.
According to the report of the Stockholm Peace Research Institute in March this year, 46% of India’s imported armed forces came from Russia from 2017 to 2021, down from 69% from 2012 to 2017. However, Russia is still India’s largest source of weapons. The 70% rate of Soviet Russian weapons and equipment also means that India relies on Russia to provide follow-up work such as maintenance.
The decline in the proportion of Russian arms imports is due to India’s increasing arms imports from France. From 2017 to 2021, India imported 10 times more weapons from France than in the previous five years. But last December, Russia and India signed a new 10-year defense cooperation agreement.
In addition, India also followed Turkey’s example and imported S-400 air defense systems from Russia despite the opposition of the United States.
In history, there has never been a precedent that the three major global powers of China, the United States and Russia favor a regional power at the same time. This is India’s highlight on the international political stage.
India has the will and is likely to become a pole of a global power, rather than a vassal of a major power. In particular, it is difficult for the United States to control India, and China and Russia only need to maintain trade cooperation with India, not so much bad thinking as the United States. Facing the United States, India can choose how to get along according to its own interests and rhythms, and modi has obviously found a way that is most beneficial to him.
Even if India wants to stand in line, it is likely that it will still adopt a practice of inconsistent words and deeds. It agrees with the United States verbally but is physically honest. It should buy Russian oil and weapons or trade with China. India will not be willing to sacrifice its economic interests and be a lackey of the United States like Japan and Australia.
For China, India’s position and strategy will be more subtle. They have the ambition to catch up with China, but their industry is still very dependent on made in China. If the industrial chain is taken to sinicize, India’s economy will face a very painful transformation, and the transfer of American industry to India will not happen in a moment. Even if there is a territorial dispute between China and India, the strength of the two sides is very different. India dare not support the United States completely. It is not good for them to anger China.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
The difference in the attitude of the United States towards China and India stems from the different strategic positioning of China and India in the United States. China is the most important competitor of the United States and the greatest threat to American hegemony. At present, India does not pose a threat to the United States, but can become a tool to curb China’s development. Therefore, we can see that the attitude of the United States towards China and India is quite different when buying Russian oil.
India can catch up with China economically and create troubles for China militarily. On this point, the United States believes that it is consistent with India’s goal. At the same time, the United States believes that India can undertake the transfer of China’s manufacturing industry chain caused by the trade war. This is the strategic plan of the United States to “Print China together”.
It can be expected that India will indeed be restless in the west of China, causing trouble to China from time to time, but India does not dare to have a real military conflict. Therefore, for Indian harassment, we should maintain strategic concentration, and should not be led by the United States and India. Otherwise, we will be trapped by the United States. Because from our long-term strategic analysis of India, the alliance between the United States and India is not so solid. On the contrary, India has more ambition and potential to become a global power. How can it be willing to follow the United States?
The Russo Ukrainian war has exposed the United States’ attempt to forcibly divide the world, but the unilateralism of the United States has been inadequate. We can see from the perfunctory and boycott of several global summits organized by the United States by many countries that the era when the United States wants to control the world with hegemony for a long time is gone!
Under such a historical background, China, Russia and India both have the will and strength to promote the global multilateralism order. In fact, India, which meets the needs of both sides, has a strong ambition to become a global pole, and its rapid economic development is making it possible to realize this ambition in the future. Therefore, India will not be willing to become a vassal of a country. The so-called joint printing of China is just the wishful thinking of the United States!