If you were Putin, what would you do next?

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Source: Zhihu Author: Zi Mu Nianhua

When I went to Russia the other day, I felt that Europe and the United States were too arrogant.

How to put it?

Europe and the United States overestimated the world’s dependence on them, and always believed that the world would not turn without them. If the United States and Europe impose sanctions on Russia on such a large scale, will Russia be abolished?

did not.

Although on the Internet, even on Chinese websites, Russia is about to lose, but in reality, Russia is still good. For example, if European and American giants withdraw from Russia, will the Russians be unable to survive?

Without McDonald’s, the Russian capital of McDonald’s directly repurchases its shares, changes its signboard, and continues to operate. How can I drop it? Without McDonald’s three words, fried chicken burgers can’t be eaten?

Without Coca-Cola, a large number of domestic colas have sprung up in Russia, with various tastes, but the sales volume is very good. Why, without the four words Coca-Cola, people in Russia can’t even drink sugar water?

There are also various Internet platforms. Mobile payment, taxi software and take-out platforms in Russia have developed rapidly and thrived after the withdrawal of European and American capital.

How? Without European and American companies, Russian banks can’t develop payment software? Russian people can’t take a taxi? Russians won’t eat takeout?

On the contrary.

Without patent barriers and capital barriers in Europe and the United States, the development of local enterprises in Russia has become more dynamic.

The earth will not turn without anyone. Even if there is no China, no Russia, and no America in the future, then human beings will jump into the sea to commit suicide collectively?

Of course, if you want to say that the war has no impact on Russia, that is also bullshit. It is interesting that when you go to the supermarket, you can obviously feel that the prices in Russia have risen, but at the same time, you can also clearly feel that the consumer goods in Russia are richer.

Where did the richer consumer goods come from?

From China and Southeast Asia.


Just a bag of spicy noodles, about 15 yuan.

Is it Expensive?

Of course.

Are they selling well?

The salesperson said it sold very well.

In the past, there were very few food categories in Russia.


The development of the local food industry is not good. The European and American giants have forced the Russians to feed some industrial food, and the trade barriers have isolated the Asian countries. Now it has broken with Europe and the United States, and Russia has opened its doors to welcome Asian countries into their markets.

Thus, a wealth of products rushed in. In the past, we could only eat some canned fruits, but now all kinds of tropical fresh fruits can enter the Russian market; Previously, I could only eat some potato chips, but now spicy chips, Mimi, fried seaweed in Southeast Asia… are everywhere.

Do you think it’s just the food industry?

In fact, this is true in all aspects.

For example, the automobile industry.

Once Europe and the United States impose sanctions, the Russians will not drive? How is that possible? Europe and America are not the only countries in the world that produce cars. So when we say that Europe and the United States are arrogant, they don’t recall that the neighboring country behind Russia has more car production in a year than the United States, Japan and Germany combined.

European and American sanctions on Russia have given Chinese cars a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Now the price of Chinese cars in Russia is more than twice that in China!

On the road from the Russian airport to the city center, there are 4S stores of domestic cars such as Harvard and Emgrand on both sides. In the past, only one Chinese car could be seen with lanterns in Russia, but now it can be seen everywhere.


What’s more interesting is that Russians used to buy European and American cars. Now driving Chinese cars, as we all know, which of the configuration, decoration and function of Chinese domestic cars is not better than the European and American cars with the car logo?

You are right to say that the comprehensive performance is not as good as that of European and American cars, but why do ordinary consumers need such complex consideration? A thousand yuan tea is not as good as ten thousand yuan tea, but how many people can drink it? So excluding the brand filter, Russian consumers have found that Chinese cars are really fragrant!

As for the Russians who are loyal to European and American brands, if they want to be cheap, let them do it. Anyway, Europe and the United States have withdrawn voluntarily. It is inevitable and sooner or later for them to accept Chinese brands. People always have to accept the reality.

So, for Putin and Russia, they are under great pressure now, but they are not as much as they say on the Internet.

I think there is always an illusion on the Internet, as if Russia has been beaten to Moscow now. What I don’t know is that Russia has been defeated, abandoned its armor and collapsed. As a result, when I arrived in Russia and just got off the plane, the contrast was too great.

In those days in Russia, I also went to the Moscow International Food Exhibition in Russia, which was as lively and bustling as it was a few years ago. Booths in China, South Korea and Southeast Asia are still crowded to the corners.

Yes, most European and American enterprises did not participate in the exhibition, but what European and American enterprises do not do, other countries will not do? Is the world short of people who make money? It’s really the local saying. Do you like to earn money? If you don’t, some people earn it!

Why is Russia so embarrassed in this war?

In fact, it’s not that complicated. It’s just no money.

Why do you think the Russians are not strong enough now?

Because there is no money.

Why do you think Russians don’t want to apply now?

Because there is no money.

No money is really a big problem. Russian young people are not unwilling to enlist as soldiers, but feel that it is not good. Why do you say that? Because of the death in battle, the pension given by the Russian government is small. I don’t know when it can be paid.

At first, Russia was devastated, and then it was in a state of anxiety. In fact

Basically, it’s because there is no money.

There is no money, so the troops are insufficient.

There is no money, so the supply is insufficient.

There is no money, so the equipment is insufficient.

In Ukraine, people die one after another, and equipment is broken one after another – endless. Europe and the United States continued to transfuse blood in the rear. Anyway, all the dead were Ukrainian.

So Putin and the Russian government now have a headache about how to make money.

First of all, the Chinese government has a clear position and will never stand in line.

Then there are various ways to make money for enterprises. For example, my company in Russia has recently been fined by Russian authorities.

Of course, there are legal reasons for others, but they belong to the kind of legal clauses that people do not know if they do not catch them at ordinary times.

Russia’s attitude towards the Chinese government and Chinese enterprises is actually different. For the Chinese government, Russia considers it an ally; For Chinese enterprises, they are afraid, too afraid of the strength of the Chinese people.

In fact, I can understand.

If Russia does not guard against the Chinese, in a few years, the whole of Russia will be submerged by the Chinese, and Chinese enterprises will also penetrate into all aspects of Russia.

So in terms of the overall policy towards China, Russia is actually very wobbly, very contradictory, and has many concerns. But the problem now is that Russia has no choice.

Now is not the time for China to stand on which side of the line. Russia must understand that it is time for Russia to stand firm and choose its own line.

For me personally, my business in Russia was fined, no problem. But after the fine, can you treat our enterprises with equal market status in the future, and no longer treat us with explicit or implicit discriminatory policies?

The same is true politically. Russia needs China’s support, no problem, but you have to give China a sufficient reason for support.

If you want to just talk about China-Russia friendship, then my support is enough now – China-Russia friendship, I support you in trade. If you want to get the kind of support from Europe and the United States for Ukraine, the reason for China-Russia friendship is too light.

At a critical time, you should always accept a petition

Like me. Fine? No problem, I am willing to play according to your Russian market rules and laws. I will rectify immediately and pay immediately – this is my attitude.

And the basis of my attitude is that my company wants to develop sustainably in Russia and become bigger and stronger. So I accept the punishment. I will accept the higher taxes in the future. I also accept the need for a joint venture with the Russian people to make money.

But you can’t treat me as a winner in the future. If you have nothing to do, just come and fool me – it’s not a matter of money, it’s a matter of principle.

Politically, it is even more obvious. In fact, China is now a wait-and-see attitude. You are a fighting nation in Russia. It’s OK. If I make a slight move, you will not die in Russia.

However, I won’t milk you too fat, or you often do that kind of thing that you don’t recognize people when you wear pants. I can’t trust you. I just want to hold you tight and see when you can recognize the reality and find your position again.

Just like those Russians who are loyal to European and American brands, you will not use Chinese brands for a while. It doesn’t matter. Reality will teach you how to behave.

The same is true of Russia and Putin. Maybe he used to be a big brother, and he is usually a brother. He said that he should bow his head, so he can’t face it.

It doesn’t matter. We have plenty of time.

But the question is, how much time do you have?

So Putin’s next biggest problem is how to reorganize various interest groups in Russia and reposition himself.

As for people, when they don’t find their own position correctly, they will be confused, hit a wall, and fall into various difficulties. It is not terrible to encounter difficulties. As long as you find the right position, it is easy to get out of difficulties.

This reminds me of the lines in Wandering Earth 2.

I’m here, I’ve been there.

Gao Qiqiang shouted “Dad,” and the road became wide in an instant

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