Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
Major changes! Russia disclosed the objectives of the third phase of its special military operation in Ukraine, which was consistent with Zhanhao’s previous inference. Indeed, it was the three states.
According to the website of Russia’s “Izvestia”, Andrei kartapolov, chairman of the National Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), said on June 1 that after the Russian army changed its tactics in Ukraine, it almost no longer suffered from the loss of soldiers. A committee under the Russian Ministry of Defense said on the same day that the objectives of the third phase of the Russian special military operation against Ukraine include the control of Nikolayev, Odessa and Kharkov states.
The above news is very heavy, which explains two points:
The first point: it shows that Russia has achieved great success after changing its tactics. I remember that when the Russian army just changed its tactics, public opinion made various analyses and wished that the Russian army would be defeated. At that time, Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) always emphasized in the analysis that the Russian army could not be defeated and would certainly wipe out the main force of the Ukrainian army in Wudong in the near future.
As you can see, Russia is ready to start the third phase of special military operations, which shows that the second phase has been basically completed. Just imagine that the Russian army suffered very little damage in the LianZhan battle. Of course, the overall battlefield is progressing smoothly. According to the information disclosed by foreign media, the Ukrainian army lost more than 50000 elite troops, while Wudong had no more than 100000 elite troops at that time.
Let’s review the mission of the second phase of the Russian military operation: to establish complete control over Donbas and southern Ukraine, open up the land channel connecting Crimea, and obtain the exit to the area along the Dniester river.
The objective of the second phase of military action is to take Lugansk and Donetsk regions and maliupol region, so that the southern region of Ukraine will be basically controlled and the land passage connecting Crimea will be opened. The so-called “export to the coastal area of the dniestria River” is not a clear expression, because the dniestria River passes through Moldova and Ukraine, The access to the sea is in the south of Odessa. The description of the so-called access to this area is not clear.
Therefore, this goal was not clearly stated. From the current results, this description is probably just to confuse the opponent. The core of the second stage goal is to control Donbas and Mariupol in front, so as to open up the land channel of Crimea.
Second point: the targets of the third phase of the Russian special military operation against Ukraine were exposed, including the control of Nikolayev, Odessa and Kharkov. As for the goal of the third stage, I remember Zhanhao’s continuous analysis before that the next step for the Russian army is to control the entire sea port in southern Ukraine, that is, Odessa and Nikolayev, which also have some fighting Ukrainian troops.
In the north, it is bound to attack Kharkov, because the Ukrainian army in the east of Ukraine has now lost most of its strength. In the north, some are in northern Donetsk and Kharkov. The Ukrainian army in northern Donetsk began to lose support a few days ago.
You can see the map below. If the Russian coalition forces take the northern part of Donetsk again, will it be Kharkov who pushes it out from Lugansk and Donetsk. From a military perspective, as long as the Russian coalition forces capture Kharkov, Odessa and Nikolayev, the remaining elite of the Ukrainian army will be the defenders near Kiev.
If the goal of the third phase of Russia is finally confirmed, then when the Russian army has achieved the goal of the third phase, the Russian army will control the entire southern sea port of Ukraine, and the north will also take Kharkov, the most important state. After the goal of the third phase is achieved, the goals of the Russian coalition army will be Kiev and western Ukraine.
Well, after looking at the objectives of the third phase of Russia, we also understand that as long as Russia achieves the objectives of the third phase, it will inevitably attack Kiev and further advance to the west of Ukraine. We also understand that Zhanhao emphasized at the beginning of the war that Russia’s war is not to teach Ukraine, but to occupy the whole Ukraine. Later, based on the geopolitical interests of the United States and NATO, Zhanhao proposed that the United States would never allow Russia to occupy the whole Ukraine, because it would endanger the subsequent structural stability of NATO.
Just before that, Poland put forward its claim to the territory of western Ukraine. Zhanhao also analyzed this demand for the first time, that is, the United States will allow Poland to control part of Ukrainian territory after the Russian coalition forces enter the West. The reason is precisely based on the above logic to protect NATO stability, that is, the United States needs a buffer between Russia and NATO. However, considering that the United States absolutely does not want NATO and Russia to fight directly, it needs a country to send troops to control the relevant territory, and this country happens to be Poland.
Therefore, Zhanhao had long analyzed that it would be an inevitable result for Poland to enter Ukraine to control part of the territory in western Ukraine, but it was only a matter of time. Sooner or later, it depends on when the Russian army will attack Kiev and the West. Even when Russia basically takes Kharkov, Odessa and Nikolayev, the United States will allow the Polish army to enter Ukraine to control these territories.
In fact, Polish President Duda visited Kiev on May 22 (the third visit in recent months) and signed a series of agreements with Zelensky. The contents of the agreements not only allow Ukrainian troops to enter Ukraine, but also include poles serving as Ukrainian government officials and judges. In other words, there are no technical barriers for Poland to enter Ukraine and control part of Ukrainian territory. Everything is waiting for the permission of the United States. This is the truth of everything.
Just as Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) analyzed at the beginning, Russia has clearly defined the political objectives of the Russian Ukrainian war before the war, so it must win the whole Ukraine or most of Ukraine without changing the political objectives. When Russia’s goal is to win the whole Ukraine, and the United States cannot allow Russia to win the whole Ukraine, Russia and Poland will have a war after Poland enters Ukraine.
For Russia, taking the whole Ukraine and leaving part of it to Poland are different politically. If the whole Ukraine is captured, Russia will form an offensive trend against NATO. However, Putin still hopes to achieve this. This is determined by Russia’s national character, so Russia will continue to attack. When Poland blocks the way, Russia cannot stop.
For Poland, this time it is “restoring” the territory before World War II with the support of NATO. This is a once-in-a-lifetime major “opportunity”. How can we miss it? Therefore, as long as the United States allows Poland to enter Ukrainian territory, the Polish army will surely accelerate its eastward expansion and run as far as it can. With the Polish character, it is eager to drive to Kiev immediately.
One is that Russia wants to swallow up the whole Ukraine, the other is that Poland wants to gnaw down half of Ukraine. These two countries have a feud. Do you think they will not fight? Moreover, Poland also thinks that it has the support of NATO led by the United States, so it will certainly fight hard.
For Russia, the west of Ukraine is indeed too far away from the Russian mainland, which requires logistics supplies to keep up, but it is unknown whether they can keep up, so the Russian army will really encounter difficulties in the west next.
More importantly, Poland has the support of NATO led by the United States. Although NATO will not directly participate in the war in Ukraine, it will certainly fully support Poland to fight with the Russian army. In the face of the Polish Army supported by NATO, can the Russian army still play smoothly in western Ukraine as in the East? Therefore, it is very difficult to determine the future situation in this detail, which can be described by the concept of quantum mechanics – uncertainty principle. This detail is the uncertainty detail, and it is also a detail that may have major variables. It is also an operational entry point, including China’s incision in dealing with some things. It will not be discussed here.
If you still remember, the United States has been urging Ukraine to negotiate with Russia recently, that is, the Donbas area is allocated to Russia, and then Ukraine declares its neutrality. In this regard, the United States even invited Kissinger to be a public lobbyist. The U.S. government also kept communicating with Russia in private. As a result, ZELINSKY stood in front of the stage to express his opposition to singing red, and even scolded Kissinger to increase the authenticity of the play. However, politicians like Putin are too powerful to give the United States any chance at all. Finally, the Russian side directly announced that it had no communication with the United States, which also means that Russia has completely rejected the U.S. bargaining.
Why did Russia refuse?
The reason is very simple. Russia and Putin cannot afford to lose this time. Ukraine must be taken to open the Geopolitical Security space. Therefore, no matter how the United States rhetoric, it will not change the Russian army’s plan to continue to push westward.
If the Russian military plan remains unchanged, the pressure on the United States will be great, because the United States cannot lose the whole Ukraine, and NATO will be in danger if it loses the whole Ukraine. Against this background, the United States will certainly support Poland and Russia in a big fight in the future. Therefore, according to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), the final decisive battle of the future Russian Ukrainian war is likely to take place in western Ukraine, between Russia and NATO supported Poland.
On June 2, Medvedev, former president of Russia and vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said in an interview on Al Jazeera that no one wanted a nuclear war, but it was wrong to claim that a nuclear war could not happen. He also said that nuclear weapons have been used in human history. He warned that relevant countries should “calmly analyze and consider all practical factors” when making decisions. Medvedev also said that according to Russian military doctrine, in the case of a nuclear strike, or when the country’s key infrastructure is attacked, or when Russia is hit by conventional weapons, and such a strike has the nature of threatening the survival of Russia, Russia will respond with a nuclear strike.
Obviously, Medvedev is warning the United States and paving the way for Russia to use nuclear weapons. That is, if Russia fails to achieve its goal in the war in Ukraine, Russia will continue to increase its chips and may eventually use nuclear weapons.
In Zhanhao’s view, the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine exists. Because if NATO does not recognize Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, and even wants to counterattack Russia and try to drive Russia back in the western war between Russia and Poland in the future, Russia may put small nuclear bombs in western Ukraine to establish the previous war results.
For example, if the Russian army in the west of Ukraine really can’t cope with NATO supported Poland, and Poland and NATO are still going to push Russia from the west of Ukraine to the East, then Russia will throw a small nuclear bomb at the Polish army in the west of Ukraine. What will be the result?
Zhanhao believes that in such a situation, Russia is really used, and no one has any way. As long as there is a nuclear bomb, the United States and the West will not attack Russia with nuclear weapons, but also have to negotiate with Russia honestly. How could the United States fight a nuclear war with Russia for Ukraine or the Polish army in Ukraine?
So, some things have already set the tone before they start! Why did Ukraine destroy the country? It is because these main factors are determined, and the results depend on how these boundaries are operated. Therefore, these future possibilities are possible results.
Of course, Zhanhao believes that Russia and NATO supported Poland may also recognize the danger and compromise after fighting in western Ukraine, but that is also the result of retreating half a step after fighting with each other.