Source: official account: Yan tajun
Because the last article was written in a hurry, many friends reported that the depth and rational analysis were insufficient. Let’s analyze the death of Abe in a rational and in-depth way today.
As for Abe, many people believe that he is the sea god needle in Northeast Asia, which is in line with our national interests.
There are two main arguments for this view:
First, Abe was a pro China faction when he took office for the first time in 2006, and his 12 day visit to China at the speed of light is the evidence. However, after taking office for the second time in 2012, anti China was only forced by the United States, which was the last resort of the United States’ strategy to move eastward;
Second, Abe belongs to the Japanese national interest group and pursues independence between China and the United States. Although he is also anti China, he has not completely turned to the United States.
These two arguments make many small partners agree that Abe’s existence is in line with China’s national interests.
Shinzo Abe visited China in 2006
In fact, these two arguments used to be right, but now they are wrong, because they fail to see the changes of the times.
First of all, when Abe took office for the first time in 2006, he really showed a good attitude towards China. Six years later, he changed his appearance after entering the palace. Is it really just because of the pressure of the United States?
Is there no Japanese factor in this change?
Between 2006 and 2012, a major event occurred between China and Japan – the reversal of national strength.
In 2010, China’s GDP exceeded that of Japan, which is a common hot search for the Chinese people. A few days later, it is completely inappropriate, but the Chinese people are not serious, which does not mean that the Japanese are not serious.
The psychological impact of this event on the Japanese is very great. GDP is a symbol of comprehensive national strength, and GDP surpassing means surpassing comprehensive national strength. In the past 100 years, Japan’s national strength has been the first in Asia. Since the “Meiji Restoration”, the boss of Asia has belonged to Japan. The Japanese are extremely proud of this history, and from the bottom of their hearts, they believe that they have the obligation to lead Asian countries.
Therefore, when invading China, the Japanese slogan was “building a greater East Asia co prosperity circle”. When invading Southeast Asia, the Japanese did not feel that they were invading, but helped the backward Asian countries liberate and let them escape from the colonial rule of whites.
The Japanese really think so, so when the Chinese army and people resolutely resisted Japan, the Japanese were very angry and thought that I was here to save you. It was hateful that you stupid guys didn’t go with me.
After World War II, Japan’s economy recovered, and for a long time it ranked second in the world in terms of GDP. Its economic strength was unmatched in Asia. At that time, the key to the economic development of Asian countries was to attract Japanese investment.
Greater East Asia co prosperity circle
This has further consolidated the Japanese’s psychology of being the “leader of Asia”. From the bottom of their hearts, the Japanese can’t accept the fall of their position as the leader of Asia. Therefore, since 2010, Japan’s Anti China activities have become more and more, which is essentially the release of psychological anxiety after its national strength has been surpassed by China and beyond hopelessness again.
This is the fundamental reason why Abe will become Anti China after his return in 2012. Even without the return of the United States to the Asia Pacific, Japan will become more and more crazy on the road of Anti China, which involves another Japanese psychological problem: worry.
What are you worried about?
Of course, they are worried about being liquidated by China. In the past, when China was weaker than Japan, it was unable to liquidate Japan. Japan was not too worried, so politicians can show a pro China stance to facilitate Japanese enterprises to explore the Chinese market. When China surpassed Japan, this worry became more and more.
Despite the fact that little Japan has a very tough appearance of being bullied to visit the Yasukuni Shrine every day, she is actually very afraid of being liquidated.
These two kinds of psychology are intertwined, and together form the public opinion foundation of Abe’s Anti China. Yes, Abe’s first term is indeed pro China, but this pro China has a premise that China is not allowed to surpass Japan.
When China is weaker than Japan, Japan can check and balance the United States in Asia by attracting China, so as to achieve “United China to control the United States”. However, when China surpasses Japan, the possibility of “United China to control the United States” no longer exists.
In the final analysis, Japan wants to be the leader of Asia, but we can’t recognize this position. We can’t keep surpassing Japan, so Abe’s second visit to the palace will inevitably be anti China.
In 2013, Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine
The second argument: Abe is a group of national interests and hopes to maintain a balance between China and the United States, so it is beneficial to China.
This argument seems to be correct, and the vast majority of we media accounts also write so, but as a person who has in-depth research on geopolitics, I can clearly tell you that it is wrong!
Abe is a national interest group, which is right. National interest groups usually want to maintain national neutrality, which is also right.
So what’s the problem? Japan’s national interest demands.
If we don’t understand Japan’s national interest demands, we can’t figure out what Abe and others really want.
To be frank, Japan’s national interest demands mainly have two points, one is offshore balance, the other is to restore national independence.
The word offshore balance is synonymous with British diplomacy. In the early years, Britain invaded the European continent, but failed. Although it failed to enter the continent, Britain still hopes to maintain its interests in the European continent (such as commerce), so Britain came up with a way to support the weak camp in the European continent and fight against the strong camp.
Seeing that Britain stood in line with itself, the weak camp tacitly agreed that Britain enjoyed some benefits, while the strong camp agreed to give Britain a little advantage in order to make Britain not completely fall to the weak camp, which is offshore balance. Whoever is weak will help and whoever is strong will fight.
There is no winner or loser between the strong and the weak. If we keep fighting, Britain will always enjoy various benefits. Therefore, Britain has got the nickname of “European excrement stirring stick”. It doesn’t matter who loses or wins, as long as the war on the European continent is chaotic.
Why the war on the mainland?
Because Britain is an island country, the island countries have a great disadvantage to the mainland, that is, the population of the island countries is usually smaller than the mainland, and the market is smaller than the mainland. The population and capital of the island countries will flow to the mainland, enhancing the strength of the mainland and reducing the strength of the island countries. This law is called “siphon effect” in economy.
For example, many people say that Chengdu sucks blood from Sichuan and Wuhan sucks blood from Hubei, which are essentially the same. Places with a large population and a large market will form a “siphon effect” on places with a small population and a small market. The strength gap between the two sides is widening, if there is no central regulation and control.
Therefore, Britain is determined to leave Europe. If it does not leave Europe, it will be absorbed by the European continent. After Johnson came to power, he created various artificial trade barriers between Europe and Britain and tried to decouple.
Hard brexit is an attempt to withdraw from the EU and re balance the offshore of the EU. Of course, this also loses the EU market and can only defend its own one acre and three cents.
In the past, Japan also engaged in offshore balance against China. After financing the “revolution of 1911”, they stood in line with Yuan Shikai, helped Zhang zuolin and assassinated Zhang zuolin. They will fight whoever is strong. In short, what they want is the war chaos in Chinese Mainland. They don’t care who wins or loses.
However, today, Chinese Mainland is unified and difficult to balance offshore, which has led to the reversal of China Japan GDP, and China has begun to siphon talent and capital from Japan.
So we have heard more and more Japanese professors come to China in recent years, such as Akira Fujishima, the father of photocatalysis.
Japan, just like the brexit of Britain, will try to forcibly “leave China” and hold its own land, although this will make Japan more backward.
Politically, it will force the offshore balance of Chinese Mainland, prevent Taiwan’s reunification, and fund all kinds of drugs.
Second: National normalization.
The reason why the Japanese country is abnormal is that there is a dog chain set by the United States around its neck. It is the so-called “untiing the bell also requires tying the bell man”. Only the United States can untie this dog chain.
But under normal circumstances, the United States cannot take the initiative to untie Japan. How can we be willing to let the United States take the initiative to untie it?
The answer is: let China and the United States fight.
As long as China and the United States fight, Japan will become the key to whether the United States can win. If Japan lies flat, the United States will have no chance in the Western Pacific. At this time, Japan can put forward the condition of “national normalization”.
How can China and the United States fight?
Of course, it is Taiwan, so the national interests represented by Abe are crazy about the Taiwan issue. Especially on March 30 this year, Abe video met with Tsai ing Wen.
At that time, Russia was in the most difficult time, and China was likely to be forced to end its support. Abe saw the opportunity and was really ruthless. If China ended its support at this time and broke the situation in East Asia, Abe’s goal would be achieved.
Fortunately, Russia did not look good, but it did again, and the crisis was over.
From this point of view, do you still think Abe is the God needle of the sea in Northeast Asia?
The national interest group represented by Abe most hopes that China and the United States will fight as soon as possible. It is best to fight before 2025. After 2025, China’s military strength will reach a higher level. On the side of the United States, understanding Wang may return and return to isolationism.
At that time, China and the United States will be completely unable to fight, so the time given to the national interest groups is actually very limited, and the more it goes, the less it becomes. This is also the reason why Abe fought to death after Biden came to power.
Abe’s death, in fact, is a lack of arch fire, a lack of instability.
If we infer from common sense that the national interests of a country are relatively compatible, China can carry out economic and trade cooperation with them, and the economic and trade cooperation without political conditions is happy. At the same time, the national interests are relatively independent and not controlled by the United States.
For example, our cooperation with the German rightists is doing well.
However, Japan’s situation is very special, because Japan’s national interest demands, whether offshore balance or arching the Taiwan Strait, are completely unacceptable to China. It is easy to fall into a misunderstanding if we only see Abe defending Japan’s national interests, but fail to see the fundamental conflict between Japan’s national interest demands and China.
After Abe’s death, Japan will probably fall to the United States, and the United States will severely cut Japan to replenish its own blood. Although the United States temporarily replenished its blood, it also dealt a heavy blow to American forces, which is to fish with all its might.
Only after being cut off by the United States, Japan will fall into chaos and its national strength will decline greatly. At this time, Japan will really cooperate with China and produce real pro China factions.
Of course, some people say that if Japan is controlled by the United States, how can it cooperate with China?
Because people always have to eat, and values are not everything. Do you think Johnson is close enough? I went to Kiev to cheer on myself. Is it positive enough? Even before 2015, Johnson was an American citizen.
However, in the case of the explosion of British inflation, no matter how close Johnson is to the United States, he cannot avoid the fate of going away, because people always have to eat. The more they eat, the more they pay attention to values. On the contrary, the less they eat, the more they can experience the taste of hunger, and then they can really become practical.
What we need to do is to seize Japan’s advanced industries, especially cars, while the United States harvests Japan. New energy vehicles must win and defeat Japan, at least in terms of brand. This trend is accelerating. In the first half of this year, BYD won the world’s top new energy sales with 641000 NEW energy vehicles.
Source: futu Niuniu
The US emperor reaped Japan, and we took the opportunity to seize Japan’s industry. After an increase and a decrease, Japan’s vitality will be greatly damaged. At that time, the hungry Japanese will certainly seek change. Of course, the US emperor can continue to control Japan, but as long as living standards decline and people’s complaints boil, the US emperor can’t control the number of troops stationed there.
History has repeatedly proved that when social contradictions erupt, simple repression cannot solve the problem, otherwise the United States would not buy zero yuan every day.
At that time, we can come to Japan to sincerely cooperate with Japan, and the real pro China faction will also be born. There are no pro China faction in Japan at present, whether it is Lin Fangzheng, President of the Japan China Friendship Association, or Nikai Jinbo, President of the Japan Tourism Association, at best, it is only a “know China faction”.
Zhihua only agrees to cooperate with China; Pro China, on the other hand, is a community of interests separated by a strip of water and a community of shared prosperity. The two are fundamentally different.
Finally, I would like to emphasize that I have always been neutral about Abe’s assassination. I neither oppose nor agree with him. I just dislike some people and always reflect according to the requirements of the Chinese people. The Japanese have committed heinous crimes against China in modern times, so they should reflect first.
China is required to reflect on the American shooting case; When Ukraine fought a war, China had to reflect. Japan’s terrorist attacks were still China’s reflection. We did nothing but bear a lot of charges, while no one in the countries concerned asked for reflection.
Don’t you bully honest people?