Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
India is in chaos again! According to the times of India, violent protests triggered by the reform of the military service system have spread to eight states, including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab. The main target of the protesters’ destruction was the railway. They rushed into the railway station, burned the carriages and blocked the roads. As of the 18th, more than 700 people had been arrested by the police.
Protesters burn vehicles in Bihar
The cause of this large-scale riot can be traced back to the fiery road plan announced by the Indian Ministry of defense on the 14th, that is, the reform of the military service system. According to the policy, the Indian army will no longer recruit long-term professional soldiers, but short-term enlisted soldiers through the fire road plan. The contract period is 4 years. These soldiers will no longer enjoy the original pension, health, education and other benefits.
At the end of the four-year period, the Ministry of national defense will choose the best 25% of the soldiers to continue serving for 15 years, and the remaining 75% of the soldiers will receive a one-time subsidy of about 117100 rupees, about 10000 yuan, and retire from the army. At the same time, the maximum service life will be reduced from 26 to 21 years old.
Indian Defense Minister Singh said that the road of fire plan aims to make the Indian army younger and comprehensively improve its modern combat capability!
From the perspective of horizontal comparison and military combat effectiveness, India’s military service reform is not wrong.
The length of service of conscripts in most countries in the world is less than five years, two years in China, South Korea and Germany, four years in the United States and one year in Russia.
The benefits of a shorter service life include: first, it can reserve more quasi combat effectiveness; The second is to maintain vitality at any time by promoting the rejuvenation of the army.
Among the armed forces of major countries, the average age of the Indian army is the highest, about 32 years old, while the five major foreign countries of the Security Council, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Germany are basically under 28 years old. The combat effectiveness of the Indian army is at the bottom among them. It can not be said that it is all due to the high age of the army, but it is said that half of the responsibility is without any problem.
Indian fire road conscription program
Therefore, no matter what the starting point of the reform of the military service system of the Ministry of national defense is, it is undeniable that it has really helped to improve the overall quality and overall combat effectiveness of the Indian army. But the crux of the matter is that the new military service system reform is based on the sacrifice of the interests of the soldiers of the Indian army and the core channel for the lower class people to cross the class, which is somewhat difficult to do.
As we all know, under the influence of the omnipresent caste system, India has a strict social hierarchy, and almost 90% of its advantageous resources are held by the high castes, while the low castes are engaged in the hardest, most tiring and least paid jobs all their lives!
However, it is not absolutely impossible for low castes to live a good life. At present, there are two ways to go:
The first common rule in the world is that all things are inferior. Only studying well can make you a middle-class person, no matter how low your social status is, as long as you are admitted to a famous university. However, this road will cost a lot of money, and it is difficult for low caste families to earn money. Unless the parents who are particularly introverted meet the children who are particularly introverted, they have a relatively high probability of leaping over the dragon’s gate. Therefore, few people succeed in this road.
The second one is much easier to go. Become a soldier!
In the eyes of ordinary people in India, serving in the army, just like civil servants, is a golden rice bowl that can keep a steady income in drought and flood.
The maximum length of service of the Indian army is 26 years old. Many people will choose to marry and have children before joining the army. After 17 years of military service, they will have a lifetime pension. At this time, they are only in their early 40s and can fully find a job and get two salaries. In addition, the government gives educational benefits to the next generation. The quality of life of these retired soldiers in non first tier cities is no worse than that of some middle-class and high castes.
With such a stable class crossing channel, ordinary people will have hope, and naturally all kinds of people flock to it. In some places, there are even soldiers’ families handed down from generation to generation: Lao Tzu becomes a son, and then a son becomes a grandson. This also eases the social contradictions caused by the solidified caste system!
As the price of the compromise military service system, the Indian government has been seriously troubled by two problems for a long time!
First of all, they have a low will to fight: most soldiers come to work for years and pensions, not really to protect their country. If they die in the war, their pensions will be gone? Moreover, where can soldiers with mixed years’ mentality get higher combat will and combat skills?
The second is the financial collapse: This is the biggest hidden danger!
In 2021, India’s defense spending was $76.6 billion, and the spending on pensions was nearly $20billion, accounting for a quarter. Taking into account the salaries given to active duty personnel, the Indian army spent as much as $38billion on personnel costs alone, accounting for more than half of the military expenditure.
India’s military industry is weak, and modern weapons and equipment are highly dependent on imports, so the actual use efficiency of military expenditure is particularly low. For a simple example, India purchased Rafale fighters from Dassault, France, at a unit price of 250million US dollars in the previous two years, while Pakistan paid a total of 1.5 billion US dollars to purchase 36 j-10cs in the same echelon as Rafale, equivalent to about 41million US dollars, one sixth of India’s, which means that India has to pay six times more financial costs to barely maintain its air strategic balance with Pakistan!
To put it bluntly, India’s military expenditure seems to be the third largest in the world, but taking into account the personnel expenditure and actual use efficiency, the amount of money that can really be used to improve the combat effectiveness of the Indian army is pitiful. It’s not too much to rank outside the top 20.
If the gusty wind hadn’t met the fight between India and the great powers in the past two years, the foreign trade would have been cold
What makes modi’s government even more anxious is that more than 60000 Indian soldiers retire every year, the accumulated base is increasing day by day, and the pressure on pension expenditure is increasing day by day. I remember reading a translation of the Indian army on the santaihu website in the early years. It said that if the Ministry of national defense did not reform the military service system, according to the growth rate of military expenditure and the number of retired soldiers, around 2035, 80% of India’s military expenditure would be spent on personnel expenditure, and only 20% of the funds left for the R & D, procurement and training departments!
What is this concept?
In the US military expenditure structure, combat expenditure accounts for 35.48%, personnel expenditure 26.81%, and equipment procurement and R & D expenditure 24%. The situation in China is similar, mainly because there is no combat expenditure, and the bulk of military spending is concentrated in the field of equipment, accounting for 41.1%; The second is personnel expenditure, accounting for 30.8%, and the last is training and maintenance, accounting for 28.1%.
From the perspective of the structure of military expenditure between China and the United States, whether it is training or equipment procurement, it accounts for more than 20% of the total! However, India’s equipment and training departments only enjoy a total share of 20% when the actual use efficiency of military expenditure is very low. How can we ensure the combat effectiveness of the army? How to promote military modernization?
I’m afraid the Indian government will be bankrupt and liquidated long before that day!
What does all this have to do with China?
Friends who are concerned about India should know that this is the third large-scale riot caused by modi’s new deal reform!
For the first time, in november2016, modi issued the scrap order reform movement. The banknotes with denominations of 500 and 1000 rupees were stopped from circulation on the same day. The existing banknotes must be either deposited in the bank or converted into new currency within 50 days, otherwise they will become waste paper. Subsequently, riots broke out in Rajasthan, Orissa, Bihar and other places. As of may2017, 136 riots broke out in various Indian states due to banknote scrap, and the death toll exceeded 50.
The second occurred in September, 2020. Modi released the trilogy of the new agricultural act aimed at promoting the market-oriented reform of agriculture in India. In November of that year, farmers’ protests broke out in India. Two months later, the protests escalated on a large scale. Farmers participating in the protests blocked roads on all main roads in the country, resulting in a large-scale traffic paralysis.
After careful analysis, comparison and data verification, I found that the three reform movements, which belong to the tax, agricultural and military departments, actually have one thing in common: their ultimate goal is to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, so as to squeeze out more finance for the government as much as possible!
The purpose of the reform of the banknote abolition order is to combat tax evasion and money laundering, so as to enrich India’s finance;
The purpose of the reform of the agricultural law is to abolish the agricultural subsidies, which account for 17% of the annual public expenditure, through market-oriented transformation;
The purpose of the reform of the conscription system is to reduce the expenditure on lifetime pensions.
In other words, modi did not hesitate to fight a series of reform cards against the risk of civil unrest, with only one purpose: to make money! Make money!! Make money!!!
In february2021, Indian farmers blocked roads to protest
Why did modi suddenly turn into a career boy and make money crazily?
The answer is simple: prepare enough start-up funds for the prerequisite of digging China’s corner!
Compared with previous Indian leaders, modi obviously has a deeper understanding of the importance of industry to the country. In 2014, as soon as he took office, he promoted the ambitious Indian Ocean monsoon plan, vowing to make India like a warm Indian Ocean monsoon, which will blow all over South Asia and compete with China’s 21st century Maritime Silk Road.
Although the plan failed half way through, modi did not give up his efforts. Instead, he made drastic reforms and accumulated strength while waiting for the opportunity!
The world marked by the competition between China and the United States has returned to the era of great power confrontation, which once again ignited modi’s ambition to build India into a world factory! The core focus of China US competition is not on military affairs or geography, but on industry and technology. The U.S. approach is to move the core of the international supply chain out of China while actively building a technology alliance with China, so as to de sinicize world trade.
The self-confident third brother certainly feels that he is the best alternative after the international trade and supply chain are de sinicized. India has a vast territory and rich resources, a 1.4 billion population dividend, a long coastline transportation advantage, a geographical advantage close to the oil and gas resources in the Middle East, and a better international strategic environment than China.
Modi really can’t think of who can fight with India after removing the factor of China!
At first, the United States also thought so. The US Japan India Australia mechanism, which was formed in the trump period, is that the United States is responsible for exporting funds and technologies, Japan is responsible for transferring specific industries and supplying parts, Australia is responsible for supplying ore resources, and India is responsible for making a framework for medium – and low-end manufacturing, trying to create a new industrial division system in South Asia that is completely different from China!
However, with the full outbreak of the epidemic and the Democratic Party coming to power, the situation began to be disadvantageous to India, because at least two major forces in the United States opposed to seeing India as an alternative to de Sinicization!
One is the geopolitical conservatives led by the policy elites of the Peterson Institute for international economics. They believe that it was a major strategic mistake or even an accident for the United States to transfer its supply chain to East Asia far away from its absolute power coverage, and they can no longer make the same mistake. Instead of moving the supply chain from China to India, which is also far away from the United States, it would be better to put it in Mexico and Central America. This is conducive to controlling geographical risks and fast logistics connection.
Another opposition force is the American industry, whose reason is even more irrefutable: due to the lack of India’s heavy chemical industry system and incomplete industrial chain, there is no return on investment in building factories here. Ford, GM, Harley and other old American industrial enterprises have closed their factories in India in recent years, which is the most powerful proof!
Made in China means that one end is abroad and the other end is inside: one end means that the raw materials are abroad, and the other end means that the parts and components required in the production process are at home, and the consumer market is at home. The enterprises that invest in China only import raw materials when calculating the tariff cost.
Made in India is made in three directions: raw materials, parts and components, and the market. Enterprises investing in India need to add two rounds of import costs of raw materials and parts before production. After production is completed, because India lacks sufficient consumption potential, enterprises can only recover costs by selling them to the third country market, while adding another round of export tariff costs when entering the customs of other countries. These three accounts show that the cost of enterprises engaged in production activities in India is ridiculously high and the price competitiveness is ridiculously low.
The American Chamber of Commerce once gave a data: the return on investment of manufacturing oriented American enterprises in China was 11.2%, and the return on investment in India was only -2%! Although it is said to serve the national interests of the United States, capitalists are capitalists after all. They love to see and hear win-win things, and resolutely refuse to lose money!
After losing 2billion US dollars in India for 10 years, Ford announced the closure of its plant in India last September
The geographical location is determined by God, and India certainly can not solve it, while the concerns of the industry are within the scope of doing everything possible.
Obviously, the so-called “do your best” refers to the establishment of a heavy chemical industry system in India!
To develop the heavy chemical industry system in a non colonial way, two conditions must be met at the same time. The first is the assistance of major powers. The heavy chemical industry system of the Soviet Union, Japan and South Korea rose from the assistance of the United States, and China’s heavy chemical industry system rose from the assistance of the Soviet Union. India has no problem with this. The United States has technology reserves and Japan has a certain industrial chain.
Then came the large-scale financial support from China: in the early 1950s, the government still invested 18.78 billion yuan in the 156 project, which laid the foundation of China’s heavy chemical industry system, with the assistance of the Soviet Union. Before the 1970s, China spent US $4.3 billion on large-scale introduction of complete sets of technology and equipment from the West. The financial investment of Japan and South Korea in the heavy chemical industry system also exceeded US $10 billion! According to the purchasing power at that time, it is at least hundreds of billions of dollars today.
The establishment of the heavy chemical industry system is just the beginning. If we want to build a competitive supply chain and industry, we must rely on more powerful and accurate financial support from the government. The development routes of the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and China, these industrial powers, have all come through this way.
German financial subsidies for photovoltaic industry
Of course, the U.S. subsidy is not only the largest: the subsidy for the return of chip manufacturing industry alone is as high as $52billion! The variety is also the most abundant: in addition to industrial subsidies, the United States has also set up a special financial fund to support technology subsidies in line with the military to civilian strategy, involving a total amount of nearly $100 billion.
Industrial distribution changes of financial subsidies of the four American governments
It can be seen that modi’s crazy goal of making money is to accumulate finance, repair internal skills, and be fully prepared to dig into China’s corner!
But the fate of modi and India is too similar. They both have a higher heart and a thinner life than paper.
In the three large-scale new deal reforms, in addition to the full implementation of the money abolition order, the agricultural law reform and the military service system reform have made concessions under the great pressure of the people, which will affect modi’s efficiency in making money, but this is not the key point.
The real point is that modi’s reform of the military service system may have opened a Pandora’s box that is extremely unfavorable to India.
Compared with other economically backward countries, India has never had a military coup since its independence. This is due to the fact that the Indian military does not play a role of political forces in the power ecology of the country. The reason for this is because of the full concession of political interests: to
Interest groups derived from the arms trade with Russia have stabilized the Indian army’s superstructure and stabilized the Indian army’s underlying foundation with the lifelong pension system!
However, these two points were all destroyed by modi: in 2020, modi briefly led the transition of India’s defense system from the Russian system to the American system, which destroyed the Indian army superstructure; This year’s reform of the military service system has damaged the underlying foundation of the Indian army. The consequences of this may lead the Indian military to actively intervene in political disputes after the overall interests are damaged.
Throughout the less developed countries in the world, the involvement of the military in the political vortex often means long-term instability.
There is no doubt that what modi has buried is a scourge that will harm the millennium!