This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
For Putin, this seems to be a very pleasant and relaxing trip.
Anyway, unlike Biden, Putin walked slowly down the gangway when he went to Iran this time; In Tehran, Putin, who has always been black faced recently, once couldn’t help laughing at himself.
what are you laughing at?
Laugh at the Europeans “waving a knife from the palace”, and then say that the Russians did it.
It is necessary to mention the current energy crisis. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international oil and gas prices soared, with oil prices above $100 a barrel for a long time; As for natural gas, Europe is in an all-round emergency, so that the German Deputy Prime Minister has called on everyone to wash faster and use less gas
Who is the culprit?
Anyway, in the West’s view, it is the ghost of Russia, deliberately cutting off gas from time to time and weaponizing energy.
But in Putin’s view, this is nonsense.
After Tehran held talks with Turkish President Erdogan and Iranian President Lech, Putin spent about 10 minutes in front of reporters to demonstrate this issue in detail.
He was straightforward:
Gazprom (Gazprom) has been performing all its obligations as agreed. Our partners have no basis, so they blame or try to blame Russia and Gazprom… You see, in the first half of two years ago, the price of natural gas in Europe was 100 euros per 1000 cubic meters, 250 euros in the first half of last year, and now it is 1700 euros
What the hell is going on?
Here is Putin’s interpretation:
I don’t know whether it is necessary to introduce European energy policies in detail. They ignore the importance of traditional energy and like non-traditional energy. They know a lot about non-traditional energy, so they decide to bet on non-traditional energy, such as wind and solar energy.
That’s the problem.
In Putin’s words: as a result, the winter in Europe was long, there was no wind, and everything was over.
Putin shrugged, probably holding back a smile.
what do you mean?
The first reason is that your European energy policy is completely wrong. If you don’t pay attention to the traditional energy such as oil and gas and the new energy such as solar energy and wind energy, you don’t know that the winter in Europe is long (not enough light) and there is no wind, then the result is over.
Of course, this is Putin’s reason. Europe, let him see a joke.
The second reason, in Putin’s view, is that Europe is lifting a stone and hitting itself in the foot.
This time, Putin did not hold back his laughter.
He ridiculed Poland, which claimed that it would no longer import Russian natural gas, and then “reverse” to obtain natural gas from Germany.
Where does German natural gas come from?
Because of the bad relationship, Russia is not polite. Poland must buy natural gas at the same price as the market price, but Germany is a long-term agreement price, which is only one third of the market price. Therefore, the German price rises a little, and then it is sold to Poland. Poland feels that it has made a profit.
But what happened? In Putin’s words, “the total amount of natural gas in the whole European market will become less, and the overall market price will rise. Who won? All Europeans lost.”
Then why did Russia close “beixi-1”?
This pipeline, which bears the main part of Russia’s current supply of natural gas to Europe, stopped a few days ago, forcing Germany and other countries to shout loudly, calling on the public to reduce gas consumption and save energy.
Putin explained that the West detained the turbine.
The turbine was needed for pipeline transportation, but it was detained by Canada when it was sent to Siemens’ factory in Canada for maintenance. Although under pressure from Germany, Canada agreed to return the turbine, Putin said that Gazprom had not received the relevant official documents so far.
Putin’s request is not just about turbines. “Gazprom should not only get machines, but also get documents including legal documents and technical information. We should get these documents as a matter of course. This is our property.”
Of course, Putin also said that after 10 days of routine maintenance, the “beixi-1” pipeline will be restored.
Only the gas volume, according to German estimates, will drop to the original 30%.
Then came Putin’s conclusion: “the fact now is that (they) personally shut everything down, and then try to find someone to carry the blame – if you don’t consider their current situation is so tragic, this is even a very funny story.”
There is Putin’s sympathy and Putin’s ridicule.
Finally, he couldn’t hold it anymore, and Putin burst out laughing.
Moreover, he also made three stabs in a row.
First, there are turbines to be repaired. If they are still detained at that time, I’m sorry. The gas transmission capacity of the “beixi-1” pipeline will be greatly reduced, even to the original 20%.
Second, “beixi-2” pipeline, Putin suggested that Europe can use this pipeline, “but if you want, it is only half”.
Because half of the Russian natural gas originally scheduled for this pipeline has been used for domestic demand in Russia. If you want, it’s gone.
Second, Putin said, “we have heard some crazy ideas about limiting the quantity of Russian oil and limiting the oil price in Russia, and the result will be the same – the price will rise. The price will soar.”
If you dare to limit Russian oil, wait for the soaring price.
Finally, what do you think?
First, Putin is confident and happy.
When it comes to energy, Putin is quite confident from his body language, which can’t help laughing. Of course, his attack on new energy, frankly speaking, I don’t agree with it. After all, this is the trend of the future, but at present, Europe, in particular, needs Russian natural gas, which is an indisputable fact.
Another fact is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions have led to a sharp rise in international energy prices, and Russia’s income has doubled over the past.
This may be something the West never thought of. Sanctions against Russia will hurt him most, but it will increase Putin’s confidence and confidence.
Second, energy is indeed a chip.
Of course, Putin categorically denied that it was Europe that did this. It was you who weaponized energy, restricted our exports, and imposed oil price limits.
But from a European perspective, Russia is engaged in “energy blackmail”. Otherwise, why do you close the natural gas pipeline from time to time?
Seeing a western analysis article, he said that Putin now has enough funds in his hands and should be calculating that “the painful water and electricity bills and energy crisis weaken the support of European people for Ukraine”. Finally, the negotiations will be more beneficial to Russia.
This is part of the overall game, but energy is related to national security, and there is really no room for carelessness.
Third, this winter will be particularly cold.
Europe is experiencing an unprecedented hot summer, but summer has come. Will winter be far behind?
Winter is the peak of gas consumption. Without Russian natural gas, many European families will not be able to keep warm, and many enterprises will have to close down. Putin is expected to laugh at it.
Europe is now stepping up gas storage. European Commission President von delaine warned that the possibility of Russia completely cutting off gas supply cannot be ruled out, “Europe needs to be prepared”.
The same winter, different mentality. Russia should be looking forward to the cold winter coming soon. But for Europe, this winter will undoubtedly be particularly cold and difficult.