Source: Xinchao meditation (ID: xincaochensi)
Britain has a new prime minister. On September 5, British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth truss was elected as the leader of the new Conservative Party of the ruling party on September 5. She will take over the post of British prime minister after being approved by Queen Elizabeth II. The Conservative Party members’ voting results showed that truss won 57.4% of the vote, beating his rival, former chancellor Rishi sunak. More than 140000 Conservative Party members voted.
I don’t know whether truss won or Britain won. However, there is no doubt that the UK taken over by truss is a dangerous stall. First of all, according to Bloomberg, India has overtaken the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth largest economy. According to the GDP data of the international monetary organization (IMF), India, once a British colony, surpassed the United Kingdom in GDP as early as the fourth quarter of 2021.
In the first quarter of this year, India’s economic advantage was further expanded. After correction, the nominal GDP reached 854.7 billion US dollars, while the UK’s was only 816 billion US dollars in the same period. IFM predicts that India’s GDP in 2022 will continue to lead the United Kingdom, second only to the United States, China, Japan and Germany. By 2027, India’s economy will be 20% larger than that of the UK.
Don’t tell me that GDP is unimportant. For a country, economic scale first means the size of the market, the size of economic room for maneuver, and the size of possible space for resources. This is why Internet users of the third brother and the British Internet users fought a verbal battle. Obviously, such figures are enough to break Britain’s defense. It’s only a symptom that GDP has been exceeded by the former colonies. What bothers truss is far more than this. The more urgent challenge is that because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, brexit, and the impact of the epidemic, the economic prospects of the United Kingdom are extremely uncertain. Inflation, the handling of the border issue of Northern Ireland after brexit, and the referendum on Scottish independence are all difficult. Obviously, aunt truss has a long way to go.
With domestic and foreign troubles, the current situation is difficult to prevent outsiders from connecting truss with Thatcher, the Iron Lady 40 years ago. The same economic crisis, the same external war challenges, the same Anglo Saxon lady in charge, and 140000 Conservative Party members obviously regard truss as the reincarnation of Thatcher. And truss is obviously guiding the British public, intentionally or unintentionally, to associate herself with the first female prime minister in British history, dressed in the same way, such as a white bow tie shirt under a black suit.
What is more important is the same super hard words, such as when it is necessary to press the button of nuclear weapons, such as listing Eastern powers in the same major national threat as Russia, such as joining the G7 to deal with economic coercion. Does it sound cool, tough or tough, or flattering on both sides of the ocean? All right! Can we just solve the problems in Britain in this way?
Big countries are different from small countries (well, Britain is the P5 after all). Internal affairs are always the key to a country’s prosperity. For Britain, the core issue at home is the arrival of the era of great inflation. The first is the impact of the epidemic. In the face of tens of millions of confirmed cases and nearly 200000 deaths, the proud NHS (British national medical service) is facing a massive influx of cases and is crumbling. In order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, like most countries in the world, the United Kingdom has adopted a radical monetary easing policy, which itself has made inflation in the United Kingdom continue to rise.
What is more unexpected to the British people is that with the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this year, the international energy market has begun to heat up sharply, which directly feeds back to the sharp rise of inflation in Britain.
Since the beginning of this year, the UK consumer price index (CPI) has started to soar, reaching 10.1% in July, the highest since February 1982, and it is far from reaching its peak. It is predicted that the UK inflation rate may reach 18.6% in January next year. Goldman Sachs predicts that the British economy will fall into recession from the fourth quarter of this year, and the British GDP may shrink by 0.6% in 2023. With inflation and economic recession, Britain dreams back to the stagflation era of the 1970s.
What is aunt truss’s response policy, tax reduction! We all know that for Neo liberal economic philosophy, it is almost an irrefutable truth that the people’s willingness to start businesses and consume is increased through tax reduction, and then the tax base is strengthened. Reagan took office to reduce taxes, Bush took office to reduce taxes, Wang took office to reduce taxes, and Thatcher took office to reduce taxes. Now truss is also following suit, declaring that he still wants to reduce taxes.
It’s just that we have a basic economic logic problem now. The current situation in Britain is that energy is hard demand. Since the North Sea oil and gas fields gradually dried up, Britain’s energy has been highly dependent on overseas supply. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia regards energy weapons as the biggest magic weapon in the game with the West. For Britain, the domestic demand side is the basic and appropriate energy price, which is the hard expenditure to safeguard people’s livelihood and reduce people’s grievances, Not to mention that Britain’s industrial system also needs energy.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has directly put the UK’s natural gas price in sharp turmoil. According to the latest news on September 7, the price of natural gas delivered by the UK in the first quarter of 2023 rose by 188%, reaching 631p per tham. Another good news is that the pound has been falling endlessly in the face of major currencies this year. It has depreciated to about 1.148 against the US dollar, a new low in 37 years. It is worthless, accompanied by soaring energy prices. What was the situation 37 years ago? The day the Plaza Agreement was signed.
Then, the truss team is drafting a plan to lock the annual electricity and gas bills of a typical British family at a level lower than the current 1971 pounds ($2300). At the same time, truss is finalizing a 40 billion pound (about $46 billion) support package to reduce enterprises’ energy bills. How about the above measures? All right, this has captured the urgent needs of the British people and the business community. The only question is where does the money come from?
On the one hand, we need to reduce taxes, on the other hand, we need to provide astronomical subsidies, and at the same time, we need to add currency devaluation. At the same time, we need to maintain political stability. Can we rely on the assistance of our American Cousin regardless of cost? Obviously, according to truss’s economic thinking, the current situation has reached a situation where one of truss’s economic thinking and economics will die next. By the way, don’t forget that after truss’s idol Margaret Thatcher came to power, she raised a large amount of money by selling a large number of public utility assets in Britain and left behind countless burdens. Coal workers and so on belong to the bitter people.
People with good memories also know that Li Ka Shing, an old acquaintance of ours, invested in British public utilities through a large number of acquisitions a few years ago. It is said that Li Ka Shing has given off a second spring of traditional business. Now, how much of the high-quality assets of British public utilities can be sold by truss? Without money, what does truss’s huge plan depend on? Only printing money. The big inflation has increased the printing of money, and the old people in the Republic of China may still have some impressions of this situation.
It is the routine of Ansar Maga leaders in the era of streaming media to spend money internally and be tough externally. Gorbachev, who just passed away a few days ago, left a famous photo, looking at the sea with Reagan, George H.W. Bush and the twin towers of the world trade center in New York, which was played by Chinese netizens. Now the five of them have disappeared into the long river of history together.
Playing with the stem is playing with the stem, but the invisible meaning of this photo must be recognized and copied by aunt biteras. She rushed to the front to join hands with allies to defeat the enemy of ideology and mobilize capital to eat and drink spicy food on this huge corpse. What you think is what you are going to do. At the beginning of taking office, truss called Zesheng and declared that whether macron was an ally depends on his actions. He insisted on renegotiating the tariff terms between the EU and Northern Ireland (Northern Ireland is a major legacy after brexit). He also made countless harsh remarks to China, following the lead of the United States.
All cards are clear cards, which provoke the crisis in Eurasia, let the British and American allies watch from the other side, realize the return of capital and talent, and solve the profound economic crisis faced at home. Churchill did it, Thatcher did it. How can I not do it? is it? The only regret is that the current international environment is different from that of 100 years ago and 40 years ago. India’s GDP exceeds that of Britain, which is enough to embarrass auntie, not to mention China’s economic weight on the international stage. Lao Dao wants to cut down new giant trees, but he doesn’t play like this.
For example, not long ago, aunt truss announced that she would unite with the British Commonwealth to sign trade agreements with other Commonwealth countries, so that these countries could unite closely and effectively strengthen “collective economic security” to counter China’s “malicious use of economic means” and weaken China’s influence. The meaning sounds very good, but it is said that Aunt truss is geographically blind and was flirted with by Russian Foreign Minister ratrov not long ago. This time, if aunt truss is really ready to do this, the author can guarantee that she will see an extremely embarrassing situation.
We all know that the British Commonwealth is a loose honorary organization. Just look at the reality, don’t say much. In terms of economic essence, China is both a world factory and a supermarket. It is normal for goods and manufactured goods to enter and leave. What is Britain? It is a market with less than 70 million people. The industrial added value is only 17.7%, and the service industry accounts for more than 80%. In the Commonwealth countries, let’s open up and see. The largest number of countries and continents is Africa. There are 21. How much is China Africa trade, and how much is Britain Africa trade, It’s easy to find out. Do they need Chinese industrial products more or British service industry more. Or is Britain prepared to support its own capital and aid Africa without investment?
Next, there are eight countries in Asia. Needless to say, the trade between China and India is several times more than that between Britain and India, not to mention that several of them are RCEP members. There are a lot of small countries in Oceania and the Caribbean. China is also their top trading partner. In addition to Australia and other five eyed countries, are these Commonwealth countries famous or beneficial for following aunt truss to China? Does Britain think they have a good reputation in the colony?
Chairman Mao said that to do a good job in investigation and research, we should have “full enthusiasm”, have “determination to keep our eyes down”, have “desire to seek knowledge”, and “put aside our airs and be willing to be a primary school student”. Compared with aunt truss, who opened her mouth and took the Commonwealth countries seriously, she began to give directions when she stood in London. How can she have any determination to keep her eyes down? She was ready to let them bring dry food to fight China? Silly is not so silly.
In her inauguration speech, aunt truss quoted Churchill’s famous words in World War II, “I will take action this day and action every day” today and every day to make it a reality. There are not one or two politicians who dress up as a conservative party’s heir apparent and only try to imitate Churchill’s World War II style, but none of them have won his fame.
In addition to his bad luck, Churchill has been to South Africa, fought Boer people on the ground, worked as a war reporter in India, spent time in prison, jumped back and forth between the Liberal Party and the conservative party, and bled and killed social ideals (and official positions) for the British Empire. What else is there besides the secret room and social media? But at the same time, he gave prescriptions to countless enemies. It is no wonder that the British people do not seem to be so easy to fool. Half of the respondents are disappointed that truss will become the next British Prime Minister, and 67% of the respondents are not confident that the government led by truss will solve the cost of living crisis in the future. Who doesn’t know who I am.