In the face of the tide of loan suspension, should we “suffer the people”?

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Source: official account: Yan tajun

Shen Yishi bought a field under the banner of the weaving Bureau. The incident happened in the east window, which alerted Jiajing and led to the disaster of home hunting.

Gao Hanwen, the magistrate of Hangzhou, was ordered to check Shen Yishi. He thought that Shen Yishi’s family did not mention Jinshan and Yinshan, but at least it was a pile of gold and jade. Checking Shen Yishi could make up Qi Jiguang’s military spending. He was rich when he thought about it.

As a result, Gao Hanwen really copied Shen Yishi and found that the cash in Shen Yishi’s family was only 10000 Liang. With a hundred silks, there were a lot of assets, but the assets were not cash after all, so they had to be sold and realized.

It used to cost 200000 liang of silver to buy a seductive woman, but now the family wealth is only 10000 Liang. Boss Shen is so poor?

Gao Hanwen was stunned, so he had to admit his crime of ineffective inspection, get on the prison car, and follow the royal guards back to Beijing.


Boss Shen is poor because he is just a white glove. In the local ecology of Zhejiang, he has to please not only the weaving Bureau, but also local officials such as Zheng Bichang and he maocai.

With the official identity of the weaving Bureau, boss Shen can get involved in various businesses, but in this way, it is inevitable to pay tribute to the weaving Bureau, and it is also inevitable to give money to local officials in the process of various businesses.

The weaving Bureau, boss Shen and local officials actually form a symbiotic relationship. The weaving bureau provides machinery, intelligence and official identity to endorse the legitimacy of boss Shen;

Boss Shen earned money. In addition to paying taxes, he also paid homage to local officials and the weaving Bureau;

The local officials opened the door for boss Shen’s various businesses. While pumping money for themselves, they could also increase taxes a little.


In the plan of “changing rice into mulberry”, the weaving Bureau provided looms to be responsible for production, and was also responsible for negotiating the business of 500000 silk with western merchants. Boss Shen was responsible for purchasing rice fields, planting mulberry seedlings, and changing them into mulberry fields. The local government “destroyed the dike and flooded the fields”, which opened a convenient door for teacher Shen to purchase rice fields.

In the whole plan, in addition to the weaving Bureau, boss Shen and local officials, there is also a fourth party, the people.

If the people can be settled down and borrow food from neighboring provinces, so that they will not starve to death, then the people probably do not object to “changing rice to mulberry”, but worry about not being able to borrow.


If we look at the current local real estate problems, there is also a triangular symbiosis behind the tide of loan suspension.

Real estate developers want to make money in real estate, but they generally can’t get so much start-up capital. After all, a real estate can easily reach hundreds of millions, which is a huge pressure;

Local governments need GDP, projects and urbanization. Land can be given and policies can be given. The worry is that no one will invest;

Banks have plenty of money, but they need people to lend money to make it flow.


The three parties hit it off immediately. The bank provides financial guarantee for the real estate developers. The real estate developers go to build buildings and sell houses, generating GDP. If the operation is smooth and the houses are sold, then they give them to the local government, return them to the bank, and the rest is their own.

Local governments gave the green light to real estate projects, granted land to policies, and even carried out demolition. The project was successful, the GDP was greatly increased, the city took on a new look, and the wages of civil servants rose, which seemed to be a virtuous cycle.

In addition to these three parties, there is also the fourth party, the public, because the key to the whole real estate project is that the public wants to buy a house. When the economy is good, they can barely do it. When the economy is down, the public will tighten their wallets and worry about whether it will be optimized by the company tomorrow. They are not willing to buy a house, just like the people who worry about not being able to borrow food.

I know that the income of “changing rice to mulberry” is higher, but without food, I will starve tomorrow. Where can I manage the future.

The second risk is that the financial situation of many real estate developers is actually the same as that of boss Shen. Looking at many assets, in fact, the cash flow is pitiful. No matter how many assets, they are not cash, and they cannot be realized immediately. If you want to realize assets that are originally worth 10billion, it is entirely possible to break a bone and sell only 5billion.

Because real estate developers play a financial game. First, they borrow money from the bank, the foundation is laid, and they start selling without a pre-sale certificate. While selling their houses to the public, they quietly mortgage their houses to the bank in exchange for the next loan, and then go to get the next real estate.


The leverage ratio of this financial game is very high, and the only reason why it can be played is that when the economy is good, we expect asset prices to rise to offset debt. Once the economy is down, asset prices will fall, and we will immediately become insolvent.

With the successive bankruptcies of Shen bosses around the country, there are more and more uncompleted residential flats. It is reasonable that the owners of uncompleted residential flats should not repay the loan at this time, but the main business of banks should continue to repay the loan.

The reason is that boss Shen is bankrupt, but someone has to fill in the money. The bank’s idea is to “suffer the people”. Since boss Shen is bankrupt and the local government has no money now, it can only “suffer the people”.

Anyway, it’s none of my business for the real estate developer to go bankrupt. The bank thinks they have no responsibility, and your loan contract is signed with the bank, so you must continue to repay it.

No matter how many lawyers you seek, those lawyers will tell you in the spirit of procedural justice.

However, the real solution is not to “suffer the people”, but to let the weaving Bureau of the bank bleed.


First of all, the bank is responsible and has great responsibility.


Because according to the national system, the housing sales funds need to be entered into the regulatory account in order to prevent the real estate developers from going bankrupt and the buyers from going bankrupt.

In this regulatory account, one of the regulators is the bank. In fact, those who have worked in real estate know that the sales funds of the regulatory account are widely misappropriated. Can the bank say that it is not responsible? If your bank doesn’t nod, how does the money transfer out?

Secondly, whether it is the local government, boss Shen, or ordinary people, they are either bankrupt or heavily in debt. You can’t squeeze out much oil and water by force.

The Bank alone has been making a lot of money over the years. The most profitable people don’t pay money, but want to be poor and force money. It’s unreasonable to think about it.

For example, China Merchants Bank, which has been popular this year, suffered from a recession in the first quarter of this year, with losses in all walks of life, but its profit reached a record high of 36billion yuan.


(source: Official Website of futu Niuniu)

The root of the tide of loan suspension is, in the final analysis, who will pay the money, and the bank is responsible and rich. If you don’t pay, do you have to empty six wallets and continue to pay the responsible people?

With the current risk exposure of about 1trillion, it will not constitute any systemic financial risk at all.

Therefore, the solution to the tide of loan suspension is to suffer the bank.

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