This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
(I)
In the next few days, an international drama will be staged here.
Biden has already set out. On the afternoon of the 13th, he flew to Israel to begin his first trip to the Middle East since taking office, and then went to Saudi Arabia.
On the 19th, Putin will also go south to start his second visit after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and his first trip to Iran after the conflict.
Don’t tell me it’s a complete coincidence.
How can there be so many coincidences in this world?
It’s a fierce diplomatic war at the presidential level. The battlefield is the Middle East.
Don’t tell me, it has nothing to do with China.
China wants to be irrelevant, but how can it be irrelevant? At least Biden, who is in the Middle East, unconsciously aims at China.
Before leaving, Biden published an article in the Washington post about why he wanted to visit. He said, “we must counterattack Russia’s aggression and put us in the best position to surpass China… To do these things, we must have direct contact with countries that can affect these results.”
See, we should deal with Russia first, but we should not forget to talk about China.
(II)
Biden’s first stop was Israel, his traditional ally.
It is not surprising that the United States and Israel are one, and Israel will always be the little brother of the United States. No matter how important Arab countries are, little brothers are also the first.
This time, the United States and Israel will sign a joint statement called the Jerusalem declaration. The United States promises to ensure Israel’s security, and the United States and Israel swear not to let Iran acquire nuclear weapons.
But the highlight is undoubtedly Saudi Arabia.
In recent years, the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia has been at its lowest point.
Biden had no good words for Saudi Arabia when running for president. The CIA determined that it was the order of Saudi Crown Prince Salman Jr. that led to the kashuji case. Biden claimed at that time that this made Saudi Arabia an international outcast, and he wanted to recalibrate the relationship between the two countries after he came to power.
After taking office, Biden also orchestrated a so-called “global democracy summit”, inviting Iraq, but not Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern monarchies; He also removed the Yemeni Hussein armed forces, who are fighting with Saudi Arabia
All kinds of actions are completely contrary to the trump era. In Saudi Arabia, it is estimated that 10000 grassland beasts galloped past. It is said that after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Biden tried to call Salman Jr., but the other party simply refused to answer the phone.
Saudi Arabia does not want to see the United States, but the United States now wants Saudi Arabia.
Why?
The oil price is too high!
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices soared, and now more than $100 a barrel. In the United States, Americans complain so much that they can hardly afford to drive a car; In the diplomatic field, I originally wanted to strangle Russia, but the high oil price made Russia benefit, and the income from selling oil was higher than before.
Biden couldn’t sit still, so this time, he specially went to Saudi Arabia to mend relations with Salman Jr. and asked Saudi Arabia to produce more oil and reduce oil prices.
As for Saudi Arabia, I’ll sell you whatever weapons you want.
What principles and doctrines are actually interests.
On the last day in Saudi Arabia, Biden will also attend the gcc+3 summit of the six Gulf countries (GCC) Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, Iraq and Jordan.
The most important theme is one: I haven’t left the United States. You should make more oil extraction.
Of course, I am 100% sure that I will step on Russia and connote a few words about China.
Russia is very nervous.
In Moscow, a Russian reporter asked Kremlin spokesman Peskov, “Biden is about to visit Saudi Arabia. Will Washington’s oil diplomacy threaten Russia’s interests?”
Peskov replied, “we attach great importance to our interests, our relations and mutual cooperation with Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). Of course, we hope (Riyadh) to establish and develop relations with other countries in the world is not aimed at us.”
Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, we don’t object to your developing relations with the United States, but don’t target me.
(III)
Moscow does not believe in tears, and Russia is well aware of the malice of the United States.
Putin is also acting.
Therefore, we can see that in the next few days, as soon as Biden left the Middle East, Putin will visit Iran. This time, he will also hold a trilateral meeting in Iran.
Which three parties?
Russian President Putin, Turkish President Erdogan, and Iranian President Lech.
This is obviously targeted. Iran is an old enemy of Saudi Arabia. Since Biden you go to Saudi Arabia, I will go to Iran.
Although only last month, Putin just met with Lech in Turkmenistan.
But this does not prevent them from meeting again. If Russia wants to break the strangulation of the United States, Iran should also settle accounts with the United States.
This is also a signal to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. If you completely follow the United States and harm my interests, I’m sorry, Russia has Iran card in hand, and Iran is not a little guy; Iran also has the Russian card in its hand. If the United States refuses to compromise on the nuclear negotiations, I’m sorry. I’m going to make a move.
Saudi Arabia naturally understands.
Interestingly, for Biden’s ardent expectations, Saudi officials said in an interview with U.S. media that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia has become closer than ever before. Saudi Arabia does not intend to break ties with Moscow, nor does it plan to extract more crude oil to help the U.S. government deal with the energy crisis.
More interestingly, on the eve of Biden’s visit, the United States let out the wind that Iran would sell hundreds of large unmanned aerial vehicles integrated with radar to Russia.
This should also be a bargaining chip in the game.
For Biden, it is also a good thing to negotiate with Iran quickly and make Iran produce more oil. But the key is that Israel did not do it, Saudi Arabia also opposed it, and trump was even more difficult. Biden is also difficult.
As for Turkey, as a special big country in the Middle East, Erdogan is really skilful now.
Turkey is not only a NATO member against Russia, but also flirts with Russia. Now it is very close to Iran, and the Americans have no choice.
(IV)
Finally, what do you think?
First, we will watch a big play.
This is the most complicated place in the world. Let’s simply sort it out:
There are contradictions between Israel and Saudi Arabia,
Saudi Arabia and Iran have contradictions
There are contradictions between Israel and Iran
Is there a contradiction between the United States and Iran
As long as there are two countries, there are more or less contradictions. Some contradictions need to be seen on the battlefield. But now, the United States has come back to ask for oil, and Russia is also tit for tat and hurriedly layout.
Another interesting thing is that just before Biden’s visit, Saudi Arabia also received a special Russian guest.
Who?
Vladimir Putin’s hard core and President of the Chechen Republic of Russia Kadyrov, who was sanctioned by the United States.
Interesting.
But the more wonderful thing is definitely behind. After Biden sang, Putin came on the stage, and Saudi Arabia saw off Iran.
Second, everything is benefit.
As I said before, what principles and doctrines are all interests.
Saudi Arabia has no oil, will Biden slap himself so humiliatingly?
Iran has no oil. Has Putin met the Iranian president again and again?
What is the final result?
Nine times out of ten, Biden returned disappointed. Although the Gulf countries used to be close to the United States. But now, the United States is not the original United States. People are scattered, and the team is really hard to lead.
Saudi Arabia is not a fool. Why wade in this muddy water? High oil prices are not more beneficial to Saudi Arabia? Of course, symbolism still needs to be done a little, otherwise, the face of the United States really won’t hang.
Third, we should also be careful.
As I said before, the United States is not kind. You can fight with Russia, but eagle eye never leaves China.
What the United States fears is that it is returning to the Asia Pacific and concentrating on dealing with China; But in the Middle East, China’s influence is expanding. Its relations with several important countries in the Middle East are now very good, unprecedented, such as:
China is Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, and China’s purchase of Saudi oil is said to be three times that of the United States;
The relationship between China and Iran is also very good. It can be predicted that once the nuclear issue is resolved, China will definitely be the number one buyer of Iranian oil;
Even Israel, the iron brother of the United States, has a very good relationship with China. If it weren’t for the pressure of the United States, the cooperation between China and Israel would be more in-depth
Why is that?
This is the art of Chinese diplomacy. You are the enemy, but it does not prevent us from being friends. Harmony makes money, and we do business together.
The United States is in the eye and anxious in the heart. Therefore, the president himself did not rule out all kinds of dirty tricks this time. When the soldiers came to block and the water came to cover the earth, Putin immediately made a move. He did not rule out the next step, and China should also take some action.