Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than 110 days. The economic war behind the hot war is also wonderful. Russia has not only achieved a headwind reversal of its economy and exchange rate by means of the “ruble settlement order”, but also the western countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia have suffered a backlash and suffered from high inflation. In those countries that are friendly to Russia, inflation is generally low, and the average gross domestic product is higher than that of countries that sanction Russia.
This is not my fabrication, but the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) President volokin pointed out. He wrote on his social account: according to the statistics in the first quarter of this year, the six countries that have sanctioned Russia together with the United States have been economically “backfired”.
Not only did the inflation rate in the United States reach the highest level since 1981, that is, 8.6%, but the GDP of the United States also fell by 1.5%. Of course, not only the United States, but also the other six countries that “follow” the United States’ sanctions against Russia are also facing many economic problems.
Volokin released a table of GDP data of countries in the first quarter of this year according to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund. It can be seen from the table that the GDP of the G7 member countries: the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada began to decline after the sanctions against Russia. Moreover, many countries still have the same high inflation rate as the United States.
On the contrary, China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran and Turkey, which are friendly to Russia and do not impose sanctions on Russia. Their average GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms is 24.4% higher than that of the G7 members.
Volokin believes that the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies on Russia are “undermining” themselves, and the U.S. government has constantly asked these countries to increase sanctions against Russia, in fact, it is “pushing” the Seven Countries unwilling to impose sanctions on Russia into one camp, that is, the new “G8” including Russia.
Volokin believes that if Russia and the seven countries form a new “G8”, then the United States will undoubtedly lose its “world hegemony” status.
Although the “new group of eight” put forward by vorokin is very difficult in practice, the major changes in the global economic order after the Russian Ukrainian war are profoundly affecting the world pattern, and the situation of “one superpower dominating” by the United States and the global order dominated by western countries will be rewritten.
Domestic inflation in all G7 countries is relatively serious, and the United States has reached the highest level since december1981. France, Germany and other countries are deeply involved in the energy crisis because of the sanctions on Russian energy. Domestic people have to buy energy at a high price. However, this situation could have been alleviated or even avoided, but the irrational choices of European and American politicians contributed to all this.
(the current ranking of inflation rates in G7 countries is Britain, the United States, Germany, Canada, Italy, France and Japan)
With the mid-term elections approaching, the pressure on Biden’s shoulders has been increased by the ugly economic data. In the face of high inflation, his first thought was not to solve the problem, but to “throw the pot” Putin.
In his speech at the port of Los Angeles, he claimed that Russian President Putin must be responsible for the record natural gas price in the United States and the highest inflation in 40 years, and described inflation as “Putin tax”; He said: we have never seen such a situation where Putin imposes a “Putin tax” on food and natural gas.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has indeed pushed up oil prices, and the rise in oil prices has also constituted a key factor in high inflation. However, Biden never admitted who launched the war and who pushed Russia and Putin into a corner. In addition to energy prices, there are other deep-seated reasons for high inflation, which the Biden administration has not or is unwilling to admit.
First, before the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the US economy had already shown a high inflation trend. The CPI growth rate of the United States in February has reached 7.9%, a new high in the past 40 years, which shows that high inflation in the United States precedes the rise in energy prices caused by the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine. At best, the Russian Ukrainian war has exacerbated the high inflation in the United States, but completely dumping Putin is obviously an incompetent act of the Biden government.
Moreover, neither the initiator nor the driving force behind the Russian Ukrainian war can do without the presence of the United States. The FBI of the United States can accurately predict the date of the outbreak of the war. In addition, the United States and the West have done their best before and after the outbreak of the war, and continue to provide economic and weapons support to Ukraine. I am afraid no one will believe that the United States is innocent in the Russian Ukrainian war. Since the United States wants to bring down Russia, it must bear the cost of high inflation caused by rising energy prices.
Secondly, after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, the United States and the West launched nuclear bomb level financial sanctions against Russia, which was finally defeated by Russia. In this way, they should bear the consequences of the “backfire” of the economy.
The United States’ attempt to cooperate with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and relieve the pressure of high inflation through the Russia Ukraine war failed. Opening up a battlefield in Europe, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, can guide global funds to return to the United States to avoid risks, and then push up dollar assets. This can not only increase national wealth, but also stimulate consumption and promote economic growth, so as to digest the inflationary pressure. It can be said that it kills many birds with one stone. However, the United States has never thought that the unprecedented financial sanctions against Russia have failed, and the war has instead become a sharp weapon for Russia to earn foreign exchange.
Russia has given full play to its advantages as an energy country and implemented the decree that energy must be settled in rubles, which makes European countries that are highly dependent on Russian energy extremely unsuitable. As the transportation of crude oil and natural gas relies heavily on infrastructure such as pipelines, and the United States wants to make a big profit in energy in Europe, Europe must import energy at a high cost, or settle in rubles. What’s more, it has to import Russian energy at a high price from a third-party channel. In this way, it is not surprising that European countries are plagued and backfired by high inflation!
Finally, after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, western countries were willing to deal with Russia at the cost of economic interests, which was an irrational choice made by Western politicians under the supremacy of American hegemony.
Regarding volokin’s views and proposals, ericwoodhouse, Deputy Assistant Secretary of state of the United States, believes that although the sanctions imposed by the United States and many countries on Russia have affected the economic situation of these countries, it is for this reason that these countries’ determination to sanction Russia to maintain “world peace” can be seen. He also said that these countries are willing to accept the economic cost, and Russia’s economy will continue to be affected.
Woodhouse represents the unanimous prejudice of Western politicians. In order to fight against Russia, even if domestic inflation explodes, people will not hesitate to complain. This just shows the strong control of the United States in Europe and the deep penetration of Western politicians. Even politicians who advocate European independence, such as German Chancellor Scholz and French President macron, can hardly resist the pressure of the United States, let alone pro american politicians such as European Union president von delaine.
At present, among the G7 countries that sanction Russia, the average inflation rate is as high as 5.4%. Except for Japan, other G7 countries are facing high inflation, especially the United Kingdom, which is following the United States’ lead. Its inflation rate even exceeds 9%. This shows that Russia, as the world’s major energy supplier, has suffered from high inflation due to its supply contraction. This is the price of sanctions against an energy country.
Among the “new G8” countries mentioned by vorokin, China, India, Brazil and Russia are called “BRICs countries”, which contribute more than half of the global economic growth. Mexico, Iran, Indonesia and Turkey are also known as “new diamond countries”, second only to the “BRICs countries” in terms of economic development potential, and their prospects are bright. The population of these eight countries accounts for nearly half of the world, and they are rich in labor resources, energy and mineral resources.
Compared with the high inflation prevailing in the G7 countries, China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran and Turkey, which have a friendly attitude towards Russia and have not imposed sanctions on Russia, except that Iran and Turkey have high inflation rates due to their own economic reasons, inflation in the other five countries is still at a relatively low controllable level.
I think there are three main reasons for this:
First, Russia has adopted a relatively loose energy export strategy to friendly countries.
At the beginning of the issuance of the “ruble settlement order”, Russia announced the list of countries and regions that are not friendly to Russia, including the G7 countries. For these countries, when energy trade occurs with Russia, they must use the ruble for settlement. If it refuses to use it, it does not rule out the possibility that Russia will cut off oil and gas supplies. Moreover, Russia uses rubles to repay its debts to these unfriendly countries and regions.
As for China, India, Brazil and other friendly countries to Russia, they adopt local currency settlement in energy and grain trade. Russia’s loose energy export policy has led China and India to buy a large amount of Russian crude oil. Brazil and Russia reached an agreement on fertilizer supply.
In May, China surpassed Germany to become the largest buyer of Russian energy exports. In addition, the China Russia oil train is about to open, and it is estimated that 1billion tons of crude oil will be shipped to China.
When European and American countries boycotted Russian crude oil, India imported crude oil from Russia on a large scale at a “discount price”. Russia became the second largest crude oil supplier to India in May. In June, Russia is expected to provide 28million barrels of crude oil to India, while India imported only 960000 barrels of crude oil from Russia last year. While importing crude oil, India also increased the scale of importing Russian coal.
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, Russia has earned about 97billion US dollars through energy exports (including oil, natural gas and coal). The main source of these revenues is energy trade with friendly countries, and it does not rule out that EU countries buy Russian energy at high prices through third-party channels.
Second, it is a supplier and resource country in the global industrial chain structure.
Affected by the epidemic and the war, the supply side of the global industrial chain has a relatively large problem, while the contraction in demand is not so obvious. Insufficient supply is the main cause of high inflation in the world, especially in developed economies. The “new G8” countries mentioned by volkin basically occupy an important position in the global supply chain, and they are extremely rich in labor resources, energy and mineral resources.
During the outbreak, thanks to the normal operation of China, the world factory, the global supply of basic consumer goods was ensured. In the second half of last year, an accidental attempt to “switch off and limit power” triggered the expectation of a shortage of global commodity supply, superimposed on the shortage of American truck drivers and other labor, resulting in congestion in important American ports and a “Christmas crisis” in domestic commodity supply. It was at that time that US inflation began to accelerate upward. This is enough to prove the extreme importance of supplier countries in the influencing factors of global inflation.
The outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine also made Russia control the throat of global energy prices. The continuation of the war and Russia’s reduction of energy supply to Europe exacerbated the inflation situation in western countries. Even the United States, which is rich in oil and natural gas reserves, can hardly escape from the fate of high inflation, which is enough to show how strong the world’s major energy suppliers are in the expectation of rising energy prices. It is precisely because of this that Biden “threw the pot” of high inflation in the United States to Putin, and condemned the major energy suppliers in the United States. But in fact, from the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has missed the best time window to curb inflation.
Third, it did not follow the US sanctions against Russia and adopted a flexible and independent diplomatic strategy.
Europe had the best conditions to obtain low-cost energy supply from Russia, laying the foundation for economic development and new energy revolution. However, in order to offend Russia and make friends with Russia, they chose a dependent diplomatic strategy of harming others and themselves, and followed the trend behind the United States. Knowing that he was highly dependent on Russian energy, he still followed the US in the energy ban, and finally ended up in a face saving and suffering situation.
The developing countries and the third world countries showed astonishing calmness and rationality in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
India and ASEAN countries in the Asia Pacific region are the objects that the United States is trying to win over, but most of them are unwilling to choose sides to stand in line on the issue of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. India has also purchased a large amount of Russian crude oil in spite of US pressure.
The vast majority of Arab countries also refuse to follow the United States in their stance towards Russia. Under the circumstances that the Western sanctions against Russia led to the sharp rise in international energy prices, the United States launched intensive diplomacy with Gulf allies to try to persuade them to increase oil production, but it was snubbed.
In Latin America, regional powers such as Brazil, Mexico and Argentina have made it clear that they will not take sanctions against Russia.
African countries generally hold the same position. South African President ramafossa said that the root cause of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine lies in the eastward expansion of NATO. Ugandan President Museveni said the conflict exposed the double standard of the West.
It is precisely because of this difference between developing countries and Western countries in the United States that Russia has provided a way to bypass Western sanctions. Therefore, these friendly countries to Russia have the opportunity to expand energy trade with Russia.
Although the developed countries still occupy an absolute advantage in the total GDP, and the “new group of eight” proposed by volkin is difficult to replace the G7 in a short time, the differentiation of the global economy and the differences in attitudes towards sanctions against Russia have reflected that the original international order is bound to undergo major changes.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
The Russian Ukrainian war is destined to be a milestone in the history of world order. Russia’s Jedi counterattack has made the world see the hypocrisy of the US European bloc. They dare not confront a nuclear power head-on. They can only try to maintain the world order dominated by the US and the West in the form of proxy war.
With regard to Russia, they still adopted the traditional comprehensive economic and financial sanctions in an attempt to make Russia yield and launder its wealth, but they failed in the end. Russia has taught countries around the world a vivid lesson against American hegemony and revealed the weak nature of the United States and the West.
After World War II, the pattern of the global order dominated by the group of developed countries such as the G7 is also changing. Even without Russia’s initiative to establish the “new group of eight”, the world pattern has already presented the challenge of the late developing countries to the camp of the first developing countries. It is a reality that exists in essence and is not transferred by the will of the United States and the West.
And China and Russia will certainly play an important leading role in the construction of the new international order. Russia used war to break the geopolitical pattern, while China used both economic development and military diplomacy to break through the old international order controlled by developed countries, and formed an impact and challenge on the hegemony of the United States and the alliance of the Western camp.