This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
Well, the Jianghu people call it “modi old immortal, with boundless magic power”. As expected, it’s not all boasted.
India is not easy. Modi really has a set of skills.
We have seen that the European Union is clamoring for the embargo on Russian oil, and the roof is about to be overturned. However, the western media found that one country, which is still in the same boat, actually opened up its arms and legs to import Russian oil and made a lot of money.
Who else but India!
Anyway, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the West collectively said no to Russia. In the latest move, the European Union decided to ban Russian oil imports and cut off 90% by the end of this year.
But what about India?
You can take a brief look at the data, which is very intuitive. Last year, India imported 960000 barrels of oil from Russia every month; After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India has bought 34million barrels so far, and 24million barrels in the past may alone.
Simply put, a month in May is 25 times that of the past month.
In other words, India’s imports from Russia in one month now exceed those from Russia in the past two years.
It’s not over yet. According to the analysis report quoted by Reuters, India will import 28million barrels of oil from Russia in the next June.
January is higher than January, a full increase of 28 times.
Is Rosneft so good?
It’s really good because India buys at a discount. It is said that it is usually 20% off the current price.
According to people familiar with the matter quoted by Bloomberg, in the confidential talks between India and Russia, India is seeking to import Russian crude oil “at a greater discount”.
Russia, the European Union forbids to buy your oil? Anyway, you can’t sell it. Let’s sell it to India at a greater discount.
The so-called greater discount, it is said that India hopes not to exceed $70 a barrel; After a look, the latest oil price is about $120 per barrel. If this is true, it is equivalent to a 60% discount.
Therefore, it is no wonder that India has liberalized its hand and foot imports.
Does the west not press?
Also pressure. But modi has his own solution.
Anyway, on May 2 this year, modi visited Germany. German Chancellor Schultz said seriously to modi that you should also join our camp and impose sanctions on Russia.
Modi took his time and told the Germans: we call on Russia and Ukraine to cease fire. We believe that there will be no winners in this war. Everyone will be losers. We advocate peace
The Germans have no temper at all, but they still have to pay for themselves.
In order to help India achieve its climate goals, Germany promised to give India 10billion euros in aid. Otherwise, India’s broken cans will bring bad luck to the whole world.
The United States also exerted pressure. Biden once warned India that you are not reliable. He also advised modi that the United States can help India diversify its oil imports, but buying Russian oil is not in India’s interests.
If it were any other country, the United States would be terrified to say so.
But India is India, and India speaks for itself:
1. We need oil, we need cheap oil;
2. Don’t you also buy it? And buy more.
Indeed, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price soared. As the world’s third largest oil consumer, India can’t afford too much oil. Russia has a discount. Why not buy it?
Moreover, the United States is also buying Russian oil, and Europe is also buying Russian natural gas. Why can’t India buy it?
The latest news is that because of Western sanctions, BP, ExxonMobil and other Western oil giants are ready to give up their oil shares in Russia. Indian companies are also ready to pick up the leak and get more Russian shares at a lower discount.
See, Europe gritted its teeth, endured internal injuries and said no to Russian oil; India is open with both hands. Russia discounts oil. The more we get, the better.
More importantly, the West seems to have nothing to do with India. Anyway, the Quartet talks continued, and Biden still had a drink with modi; Germany will definitely invite modi to the next G-7 summit.
Why is that?
Make it three simple.
First, modi does have a set.
India abstained from any vote condemning Russia; India can buy any discount oil from Russia.
Russia is naturally satisfied. But what India is especially good at is that no matter how much pressure the west puts on it, it will not let go, but the West will not turn its face.
Frankly speaking, the average person can’t do this kind of balance. Modi, who has practiced yoga, really has two skills.
In the past few years, no matter which politician in the west, Trump or Biden, Putin or macron, modi seems to be able to carry his shoulders on his back.
It is very interesting that not long ago, during the quadripartite talks between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, other three parties attacked Russia, but India just kept silent. So that the three parties could do nothing about modi. Finally, they declared that they did not mention Russia.
Second, we can see the Chinese brand.
If modi had done this in other countries, the United States would have flipped the table. But why have you lost your temper with India?
Because of the Chinese brand.
We don’t have to avoid it. Whether it is the Sifang group (the United States, Japan, Australia and India) or the US India “2+2”, an important goal is China.
Russia is very important, but in the eyes of the United States, China in the East is the more serious challenge. As a matter of fact, the United States is not mentioning the “Asia Pacific” at all. It is actually trying to win over India to deal with China.
It is not necessary to offend India completely for the sake of Russia. Therefore, it is also a fight and pull against India. Modi naturally sees this point. I want to eat the soft, and I don’t want the hard. Finally, the west can only turn a blind eye.
In order to deal with China, the West tolerated it.
Third, this is international politics.
We have seen the formation of gangs in international politics. There are only positions, not right or wrong.
We have also seen the strategy game in international politics. You have your siege plan, and I have my ladder over the wall.
We have also seen the dialectical unity of crisis. Crisis, crisis, and your crisis are not my opportunities.
Pakistan was so oppressed that at that time, Prime Minister Imran Khan went to talk with Putin. You western countries denounced sanctions. India can buy discounted oil, but we in Pakistan are poorer and need it more. Why don’t you attack modi?
Turkey is even more “envious, envious and hateful”: the United States, you seriously double bid, oh, I buy the Russian S-400, you will swing a big stick to punish me; India also bought the S-400, and also bought oil. Why did you hold back for a long time
But this is international politics. Don’t compare with others in Turkey. People are angry. Countries are compared with each other. Don’t live.
Therefore, we see that some countries are gradually waking up.
For example, Hungary, the European Union wants to completely ban Russian oil. Hungary firmly says no, you don’t need it, but we must. The EU has no choice but to grant exceptional treatment to Hungary and a few other countries.
And Turkey. Although it is a NATO country, Turkey is regardless of the overall situation, that is, it does not agree with Finland and Sweden to join NATO; In the latest move, Erdogan and Putin talked on the phone to discuss how the Turkish army would be deployed in Syria
This is a big game. Modi really has a set of tricks.
But for the west, Modi, it’s hard to lead a team because people are scattered.