Source: official account: Kaishen Diary WeChat ID: changtalk
Why do I always think that India is likely to be the strongest opponent in the second half of the 21st century after China’s summit?
The first is the population in India, and the second is the ambition of a big country currently displayed in India.
“It is useless to have a large population, but the industrial population is more important”, which is certainly true. However, India, as the most populous country, has the potential to transform into a huge industrial population. Now, for various reasons, this force has not been released. But this is like a wet powder bucket placed there. You can’t light it today, tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow. But if you continue to do so, the probability of being finally lit will gradually increase with the passage of time.
Just as the Chinese society in 1895 looked hopeless, the western powers had entered the industrial civilization and were already considering how to carve up China. The land of China is still as desperate and numb as described in Lu Xun’s novels. Like a huge powder barrel, the lead is wet. The Boxers didn’t light up, Sun Yat-sen didn’t light up, Yuan Shikai didn’t light up, Li Yuanhong didn’t light up, Li Lisan didn’t light up, Qu Qiubai didn’t light up, Bogu didn’t light up, and the instructor finally blew up.
Time is the biggest variable. If you leave a complete powder barrel there, it will always be uncertain.
India has castes, bureaucrats, astonishing corruption, loose states, numbness of the people, religious ignorance
There are all these things, but in a modern and information-based world, will these pre-modern things be slowly “worn away”? It is true that I do not have a complete revolution like China, but will it appear in the information society, with the change of generations, the old things will be slowly abandoned, and then enter the possibility of modernization?
Moreover, India’s international environment is good at present. There is no strong enemy to take it as the main opponent, nor is there any big power to divide it up and deliberately provoke its civil strife. In this way, its internal contradictions may be gradually integrated, suppressed and digested, and new social consensus and ideas will be gradually formed along with the intergenerational change.
Even if the probability of such “slow change” is not high, as a competitor, it is also very dangerous.
If the probability of China’s rise is only 20%, then as Chinese people, this is a very low number and worth worrying about; But if the probability of India’s rise is only 20%, then we, as competitors, this is a very high number, which is worthy of attention.
And India has the will of a big country, which is different from Vietnam. In many fields such as aerospace, military, economy and so on, although India has limited national strength, it has always been aiming at the forefront, and has also made very brilliant achievements in developing countries (if not compared with China).
In the past, Western countries believed that there was only one way to modernization, and thus despised China, which chose a different development path. Now they are paying the price for their arrogance. Will India also take its own unique path? It cannot be completely excluded. India has inherited the greed and belligerence of the western imperialist powers. After India’s rise, its aggressiveness will not be much lower than that of the United States. After all, the United States is an ocean away from us, and India is bordering on us. After its strength, its power projection on us is even stronger than the United States today. Besides, the two countries still have border conflicts. The world’s first and second powers have territorial disputes. Under the framework of modern countries, they can hardly concede. This is Mars hitting the earth.
When can India’s “powder keg” lift the threat?
1. India was dismembered and divided into small countries; 2. With the penetration of modern social patterns, India will also face population problems. If it cannot take advantage of the window opportunity of the next half century to surpass the United States and Europe and become a “two in one” superpower before its population decline, it will face the problem of insufficient stamina; 3. With the outbreak of the new scientific and technological revolution, the productivity controlled by human beings will suddenly rise by dozens of times or even more, and the contradictions between countries will be greatly alleviated, and it may even work together to build a new communist earth civilization.