Industrial transfer is imperative, but there is no need to worry about who will replace China!

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Source: wechat official account: Jiubian has been authorized to reprint

There is no doubt that Biden’s “Indo Pacific economic framework” is one of the hot news during this period. Too many people say that Southeast Asia or Vietnam will replace China.

In fact, even without this agreement, in the current state, it is only a matter of time for some industries to move out. The reason is obvious and almost obvious. More and more low-end industries can only support the salary of twoorthree yuan. At the beginning, there was no recruitment in the whole western countries, so they came to China, but now there are almost no recruitment in China, so they can only continue to move.

There is no way to do this, and there is no need to worry about it. China did not want to do this all the time when it undertook this low-end industry. Moreover, it is a crime to let a young man in his twenties stand on the production line for 12 hours a day to do repetitive work and earn twoorthree yuan in the last month, especially for young people in China. The reason why China accepted these production capacities at the beginning was to accumulate capital through low-end industries and then climb to a higher level. Now there are no people for twoorthree, which shows that we have a better choice and there is no need to tangle about this.

As for that agreement, don’t worry too much. As far as the agreement itself is concerned, it is still in a state of “eight words without any skimming”.

I have talked about it before. The United States has always had a problem with unstable policies. Maybe this leader has done half of the projects and the next leader will clean them up as soon as he takes office. If President Chuan comes to power, Biden’s game will probably end up with his old leader Obama’s TPP. Even if President Chuan does not come to power, the United States will probably continue to be conservative in the next general election, and the “group building” operation may become yellow.

In addition, the interests of those Asian countries are not consistent. It’s OK to talk about principles. When it comes to detailed rules, you probably can’t pee in a pot at all. It felt like you called several people and said that we would go to dig out the bird’s nest together. Everyone agreed, but when it came to concrete implementation, you let Zhang San stand at the bottom, Li Si stand on Zhang San’s shoulder, and you stand on Li Si’s shoulder. They might be angry and ask why you should arrange so, and why you can’t go to the bottom yourself?

When the eggs were divided, you said I was at the bottom, so I should divide two more. The two above were unhappy again. They said that they were at high risk and might be pecked by birds. Why did you score more?

This is why multilateral agreements of that kind are often talked about for seven to eight years. The details are the devil. It is normal to talk more and more about them. It is often in the face of a common and huge threat that an overwhelming consensus can be reached and quickly adopted, similar to the allies and allies before World War I, or the NATO and Warsaw Pact after World War II.

What is more uncertain is that this time there is also India, which seems to have a magical ability to screw things up. It often joins which group and which group will soon be finished.

Since the founding of the people’s Republic of China, India has been determined to be a “big country with great influence” and to give full play to its “leadership power”. That is to say, when Indians join an organization, it is not that they ask to join, but that other countries “invite” India to take the lead. If you don’t let him lead, he will spoil everything and keep singing the opposite tune. Almost all organizations with it will end up half yellow, In a state of hemiplegia.

So China doesn’t have to worry at all?

No, we are really under great pressure this year. The most obvious thing is that this year, the overall social confidence has indeed fallen into extreme pessimism. During this period, I saw one thing in a group of small manufacturing bosses. In fact, the state gives them loans, but they don’t dare to lend, because what they lack is not money, but orders. Now many people don’t consume, and their orders are declining. If their small bosses lend, they will easily become Laolai. They can only try their best to reduce costs first, Keep the enterprise running with low power consumption. Try to live longer, or simply close the door first and release the manpower first to see when the situation improves.

The second is today’s theme. With the rising cost of employment in China, the continuous relocation of industries has been going on for many years, and will continue in the future.

I talked with a small boss before. He said that the society is scolding them for their sweatshops. However, if they raise their wages or reduce their working hours, the enterprise will not only not make money, but also lose money and have to close down. This is also why the workers in Suzhou Industrial Zone have the same daily salary and work hours. It is not that the small bosses unite to hurt everyone, but that the salary is almost a profit compromise. Anyone who dares to raise the salary a little will find it easier to recruit people. Maybe the factory will collapse soon.

In addition, they also said that in the past few decades, industrial capital from all over the world has poured into China to build factories and invest in production capacity in China. A very important reason is that China has always provided us with a “continuous sense of stability”. Even in the extreme case of 2020, production is still non-stop. Until this year, this belief like concept has been challenged. Many domestic business owners are doing backup work in Southeast Asia. Multinational companies will also choose the “distributed” layout for industrial security. For example, the “Apple chain” is moving to India and Vietnam for industrial security.

Find a data. In 2020, India accounted for 1.3% of Apple’s global manufacturing capacity, which is expected to reach 5% to 7% this year. This figure will continue to grow, about 30%.

Fortunately, demand has become the main engine in these years. I just found a data that said that in the past decade, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth increased by 10 percentage points compared with 2012, to 65.4%. As one of the “troikas” driving economic growth, foreign trade has created 180million jobs. In 2021, the contribution of imports and exports of goods and services to GDP growth will reach 20.9%.

Another more serious reality is that China cannot be self-sufficient in energy, raw materials and technology. It is almost impossible for many people to dream of a day when they do not need foreign countries at all.

In other words, the following events will be confirmed in the next many years:

1. The outflow of low-end manufacturing industry is continuous;

2. The economy is mainly driven by people’s consumption;

3. There is no way to avoid exchanges and cooperation with the world.

As for the “high-end capacity” mentioned by many people, it seems urgent. In fact, it is a very long process, and it will not go anywhere soon.

Now we always talk about technological breakthroughs. Chips are only a small part of our industry. We have a wide range of industries, but most of the industry leaders are not here. The key to our breakthrough in the future is that the income of the people can come up and they can afford to buy high-end products, so that our enterprises can continue to move forward. Only when the enterprises make money can they afford high paid R & D personnel, form a stable positive feedback, and move forward slowly, Excessive radical operations often result in a lot of scams.

This process is much longer and more difficult than everyone imagined. It is precisely because of the difficulties that there are huge profits.

China now has about 100million people whose spending power has reached the threshold of developed countries and has the purchasing power to buy expensive products, but the vast majority of people still can only consume some low-end industrial products. For example, the development of electric vehicles in China is very awesome. The premise is that people can really afford to buy cars at a cost of more than 100000 or 200000 yuan. If Vietnam and Africa want to do this, it is impossible.

I don’t worry about industrial upgrading, because when the demographic dividend is gone, it is easy to earn all the money. Everyone has to earn the hard money. Naturally, it will turn to R & D and industrial upgrading. You can note that in China’s talent market, there are almost only R & D posts in the software field. In other industries, such as machinery and civil engineering, the main needs are operators. It is natural for college students to enter the factory after graduation? However, the road is very difficult and long. Everyone should give up the illusion of “accomplishing one battle” as soon as possible.

In addition, China still has a bonus that has not been exhausted, and the Western technology reserves have many years to “catch up”. In the scenario of catching up, many detours do not need to be taken.

You have seen the three bodies. The most difficult thing for human beings was that they didn’t know the direction of development. Later, Yun Tianming passed on the feasible direction to human beings through three fairy tales. Corresponding to the reality, it is the same. At the beginning, the United States and Germany had a super difficult time building the atomic bomb. Later, it was much easier for those countries, not only the technical path, but also everyone knew that this thing could be done. Now controllable nuclear fusion also has this problem. Everyone is uneasy. On the one hand, they doubt whether this thing can be completed. On the other hand, they also doubt whether the current research and development direction is right. If the direction is wrong, the amount of money has been thrown down that day, and they can’t clean it up at that time.

In many other fields, China, as a late developing country, has the greatest advantage of omitting the “feasibility study” and “direction selection”. When we do not know the direction, it is the most difficult and painful. All our scientific research partners know what I mean.

Once we have made clear which direction is feasible, we can concentrate resources to attack. This is also a relatively obvious “late development advantage”, which saves the cost of trial and error. As long as the United States goes ahead, we can enjoy this dividend.

Exploration is much more difficult than catch-up, and the cost is too high. Therefore, the distance between China and the United States will slowly approach. Only when we get close enough, we have to readjust our thinking. The current plan belongs to the “catch-up plan”, and “Surpassing” is another set of thinking, which can only be said at that time.

As for the United States, we really don’t have the ability to seal our throat with a sword, nor do we have the kind of “big move” that many people say can make the US emperor kneel down directly. Even in the eyes of other third parties, the United States is dominant in the confrontation between China and the United States. After all, most or even all developed countries are long-term allies of the United States, and heavily depend on the United States. Europe depends on the military power of the United States. It goes without saying that Asian countries are fed by the United States.

However, it should also be noted that the benefits of most countries in the process of dealing with China and the United States have never been the issue of choosing sides, but “both”. For example, Australia, which seems to keep up with the United States step by step, has not made less money. The United States does not have the ability to press people to choose sides. Of course, China does not have the ability. The problem is that as long as people do business with us, trade will make us better.

How did we get rid of Trump’s trade war?

It’s not a trick, but our products are really competitive. Similar products are the cheapest and have the best quality at the same price. Consumers will vote with their feet. An administrative order will not affect the overall situation.

In the future, our enterprises will continue to produce competitive products. To compete at home and abroad, it is not always said that the Chinese are smart, so we must have an awareness that “we have more than one advantage”.

Moreover, the competitiveness of products is more persuasive than many things. Many people in China have always wanted to boycott Japanese goods, but they have been unsuccessful. Until these years, there are fewer and fewer Japanese goods around. It is not the rise of nationalism, but that domestic goods are no worse than Japanese goods, and the price is also appropriate.

At that time, people in Xinjiang cotton boycotted Nike Adidas. I checked the data. Adidas Nike was still the top three. Fortunately, Anta came up and ranked second. The main reason is that the products of our domestic enterprises can not compete with others, and the brand effect is not as competitive as others. Because under the market economy, whether the products can be sold or not, the brand effect is as important as the quality. It will take many years for our enterprises to catch up with the United States, and we have to continue to learn. I have no doubt that in a few years, the domestic low-end consumer goods will abuse all overseas brands.

It can even be said that the major breakthrough of China in the past 40 years is that our products can be sold, and a large amount of wealth has been accumulated through foreign trade. Based on these wealth, more and more people can benefit from the expansion of industrial capacity. People earn money, form domestic demand, and then buy houses and things we produce, thus stimulating the economy.

Foreign trade, urbanization and consumption, like a three-stage rocket, constitute the source power of China’s economic development.

So for a long time to come, the relationship between China and the United States is actually not a “Duel”, but rather a “competition”. What is the difference?

“Duel” refers to cutting each other until the other is cut down.

The “race” is like two teams. Instead of fighting with a spanner and hammer, they compete with each other for the speed of their cars. They should not only suppress each other, but also not break the rules, and even try to maintain the rules, because the rules are beneficial to both sides. In this process, each other may have to buy the other’s drivers, or even use the other’s racing skills in their own cars.

In fact, Biden himself has repeatedly said that Russia is the biggest threat to the United States, and China is a competitor of the United States. Different from what many people understand, what big groups do is obvious, because you set up a small circle there, and your opponents were fooled by you, and maybe your own people were also fooled, and finally you can’t go anywhere. Looking back at the twohundred year history of the United States, we can see that their strategies have been open from the beginning. Besides, if they are not open, how can they ask Congress for money.

There is a high probability that there will be no direct conflict between China and the United States. The United States has exposed its cards about Russia. Although the United States has rolling equipment and strength, it is still unwilling to confront Russia head-on, and it is even more impossible to confront China.

Military conflict is almost impossible, but other areas may remain entangled.

In other words, the decline of the United States is probably a very long-term thing. If it fails to notice its decline, it will be a good thing. Once it does, it will absorb advantage strategies from its competitors. For example, caodewang will be absorbed into the United States. Weilai is also preparing to build a factory in the United States these two days.

So for a long time to come, the most important thing for us is to create a good business environment. Whether state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, they will continue to grow and solve their own problems.

Quoting the words of the famous “chief designer of cold war strategy” Kennan, he believes that the key to winning the cold war is not weapons, but “the United States can make the greatest contribution to the peace and orderly development of other countries and benefit from it”.

Kennan, as a master figure of that era, is as simple as a big road. He has spoken the most important logic in the world. If he wants to succeed, he should do these three things: 1. Solve his own problems; 2. Help others develop; 3. Benefit from it. These three things are linked one by one, and none of them is missing. They go round and round, and cause and effect each other. Let’s have a careful experience. The truly lasting and great companies, the big guys, all act according to these three things. Just like the performance in the early stage of the epidemic in China, he solved his own domestic problems, and then exported medical devices to the world, winning a reputation and making money from it. We should continue to do so in the future.

At the end of the article, let’s summarize:

1. The outflow of low-end industries is almost inevitable and normal. As long as we continue to develop and people’s wages rise, low-end industries will continue to turn away. What we need to avoid is that some people feel “unsafe” and then turn away.

2. The main driving force for development is still enterprises. The key for good enterprises to improve their technical level, absorb labor and contribute taxes is to trigger a positive cycle. Only good enterprises need a sound legal system and a loose and stable social state to develop and grow. The same is true for talents. Talk less about feelings and more about income. Those who have left will also come back.

3. We need a long time to improve people’s income through industrial upgrading, and then promote industrial upgrading through people’s income. All these need a stable environment and continue to introduce technology and management ideas from the West.

4. Why has the “grand narrative” been repeatedly opposed recently, because in some people, China just wants to “win” and win everywhere, except that it is not prepared to improve the quality of life of the people and solve the various problems we face. It is more important than any grand narrative to return to economic development and legal system construction, and continue to make a big cake and divide it well.

5. The purpose of development is not to commit violence everywhere like the United States and the Soviet Union, but to improve the living standards of our people. First, we should solve our own problems so that young people can see the future. The middle-aged people have some sense of security, and the elderly have a sense of security. This is what the people really want. After all, the main contradiction in our society is “the contradiction between the growing needs of the people for a better life and the unbalanced and inadequate development”.

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