Source: Li Jianqiu’s world (id:lijianqiudeshijie)
At present, due to bulk commodities, all manufacturing countries have trade deficits of varying degrees, and this deficit has spread to the upper, middle and lower reaches. Except for China, which is still in surplus, other manufacturing countries, such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, have deficits, of which Germany may be the most unexpected,
The situation in Germany is different from that of Japan and South Korea. Germany has the European Union as a dumping ground, so Germany often appears as the first surplus country in history. As a result, Germany has a commodity trade deficit for the first time in 31 years.
From the economic situation of various countries, the world economic situation is not optimistic, but China’s economy is relatively resilient.
The trade war launched by trump has two purposes: reducing the trade deficit and manufacturing backflow. Judging from the current situation, neither of the two purposes has been achieved. Going against the economic law will come to no good end. Let alone the United States, even China, it is impossible to take back the manufacturing industries that have flowed out in the past, such as clothing and footwear.
Not to mention China, this is Vietnam News:
Vietnamese media: textile industry and footwear labor resources dried up
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the successful textile investment and trade joint stock company in Xinping industrial zone of Xinfu County needed to recruit more than 1000 workers to make up for the number of departures, and expanded production in nearly 20 factories in various provinces and cities. Successful factories are ready to recruit new people, but they are not attractive enough.
Not only is it difficult to recruit new employees, successful companies are also facing changes in their internal workforce. Ruan Youjun, the company’s human resources manager, said that the textile industry no longer attracts workers. A large number of workers in the factory left and transferred to other departments to obtain better income. Not to mention the trend of labor transfer from cities to local areas, because the cost of cities is becoming more and more expensive, “the monthly wage of 8-9 million can not survive”.
“Textile workers have run out of resources, so it is difficult to find new people. Factories are competing for skilled workers,” he said. Labor shortages make many factories unable to achieve 100% production capacity. Novices are not familiar with this industry and do not keep up with the pace of production.
At present, the average age of workers in many garment factories is 41-42 years old, that is, middle-aged workers account for the majority. Due to insufficient manpower, the company with less than 1000 employees was quite cautious when signing large orders, and was forced to accept small contracts and low unit price contracts.
Mr. Ping said that from the experience of various countries, Vietnam’s textile and footwear industry will have to change and restructure other growth models. Even if these two industries must be reduced, don’t rely on cheap labor like now, because these advantages will gradually disappear.
In fact, the American elite did not have any hope for the return of manufacturing industry and the reduction of the deficit from the beginning. Trump had a good dream, and the elite was very sober. But what the elite hoped was that the manufacturing industry could gradually transfer out of China and regain control of the supply chain. Later, the reasons for the decoupling between China and the United States were the same in various British and American media propaganda. Of course, now inflation is playing off.
The deficit of oneortwo manufacturing countries is nothing, but there are many problems in the large number of manufacturing countries.
In May, Japan’s PPI increased by 9.1% year-on-year, South Korea’s PPI increased by 9.1% year-on-year, and Germany’s PPI increased by 33.6% year-on-year. This is really fatal in Germany.
PPI is a production price index, whose main purpose is to measure the total cost of a basket of goods and services purchased by enterprises. Enterprises cannot always bear high PPI, and their costs will eventually be transferred to consumers in the form of higher consumer prices.
Therefore, although prices in western countries have risen a lot, PPI and CPI still cannot match. To put it simply, the rise is not enough, and prices will continue to rise in the future.
China also has a scissors gap between PPI and CPI, but the gap is not as big as Japan, South Korea and Germany.
In the future, the prices of manufactured goods in Japan, South Korea, Germany and Vietnam will continue to rise.
This is the reason why the United States abolished tariffs: many people mistakenly believe that the United States wants to reduce inflation, not to prevent inflation from continuing to rise.
Don’t think that inflation only affects residents’ consumption. Of course, residents’ consumption is on the one hand. On the other hand, American enterprises borrowed a lot of money in the form of floating interest rates in the past. Now that American interest rates are raised and market interest rates are up, it’s hard to say whether these enterprises can afford to pay back. Wall Street also packaged and sold these loans, which may cause a serial explosion at that time.
Looking back on the trade war, the first stage of the three rounds of tariffs has the greatest impact. Stocks in related industries fell sharply, with electronics down 42.38%, machinery down 35.11%, and power equipment down 34.95%. The three largest declines were recorded.
During the second round of tariffs, agriculture was most involved. The prominent feature of the second stage was that due to many policy adjustments in agriculture, agricultural products rose well, including 57.06% in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and 52.7% in food and medical treatment.
In the third round, although there was also an impact, the impact was far less severe than that in the first round. Textile and clothing fell by 17.12%, cars fell by 13.15%, and the same food and beverage rose by 8.23%.
In the fourth round, the Sino US trade war tends to ease.
Since then, the tariff problem has gradually subsided, but the scientific and technological war has become more and more intense. From the past military industry, it has gradually expanded to scientific research, communications, chips, AI, and has dealt a blow to technology companies including Huawei.
China’s exports to the United States, in addition to traditional textiles, home furnishings, toys and the like, have long been transferred to mechanical equipment products, motors, electrical equipment and precision instruments. The impact of U.S. tariffs on China cannot simply look at the year-on-year growth of exports, but also depends on two data, one is the amount of money, and the other is the impact of exports on the industry.
From the perspective of the overall amount and growth rate, building materials, food and beverage, communications, steel, machinery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are the most affected by the trade war. Under the change dimension of the total amount, machinery, basic chemicals, automobiles and building materials in the midstream manufacturing industry, electronics, power equipment, new energy and communications in the science and technology industry, as well as light industry manufacturing and household appliances in the consumer industry are more seriously affected
Among them, the machinery industry is ultimately impacted, and the severity of the impact is much higher than that of other industries.
The amount of special machinery in the machinery industry and brand clothing industry in the clothing industry changes most obviously. Once the tariff is cancelled, the special machinery industry and brand clothing industry will benefit the most.
Let’s take a look at the expiration time of the tariff list first. There are four rounds. The first period expires on July 6, that is, tomorrow, and then on August 23, September 24, and September 1, 2023. The first two rounds are about to expire, accounting for a relatively high proportion of machinery, power equipment, electronics. In addition to the first two rounds, the third round also includes textile and light industry.
On the one hand, on the other hand, if the United States cancels tariffs on China, China may correspondingly cancel tariffs on the United States, which many people have not noticed. China’s tariffs on the United States are more and more complex. Superimposed on the first stage agreement and the current price situation, it may involve agricultural products most.
In recent days, the rise of pork prices began to be frequently reported in the news. The price department of the national development and Reform Commission has asked large-scale breeding enterprises to take the lead in maintaining the normal pace of marketing, marketing according to the trend, fattening pigs appropriately, and not blindly pressing the market, reminding Enterprises not to hoard, bid up prices, and collude in price increases.
However, in view of the current inflation in the world, and China has the momentum to suppress inflation, it is not impossible to import American Meat and related agricultural products. On the one hand, it suppresses inflation, and on the other hand, it is a mercy, saying that China is willing to reduce tariffs and increase imports of American agricultural products.
This may involve transportation, food refrigeration and other industries. Pay attention to the logistics cold chain industry.
When looking for related enterprises, we must remember to look at the main business composition in the business analysis. The larger the proportion of overseas income, the most benefit will be gained if the tariff is cancelled this time, and some related stocks have risen.
In addition, the market has risen a lot recently, and has been in contact with the annual line. It has not broken through the annual line for seven consecutive trading days, and it will fall for a long time. In all likelihood, it will callback a wave, and pay attention to avoiding risks.