Author: Lu Kewen Source: official account: Lu Kewen Studio has been authorized to reprint
During the World Cup match on November 21, Iran played against England. There was a strange scene. When the Iranian national anthem was played, the Iranian national team refused to sing the national anthem and kept silent.
This is how Iranian players express their solidarity with domestic women’s pursuit of freedom and their demand for not wearing headscarves.
The cause of the incident was that on September 14, Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman, who had just been admitted to Urumiya University, went to the university to apply for admission and visit her relatives. She was arrested and detained by the religious police on the streets of Tehran because her headscarf was too loosely worn, and died in the detention center two days later.
A picture of Amini lying on the hospital bed with a black nose and eyes and bleeding ears before she died was circulated on the Internet. The woman who was arrested told Amini’s father that the police had beaten them. Amini’s cousin also said that he heard Amini’s miserable scream many times while waiting outside the detention center.
In short, many Iranian people believe that Amini was killed by the religious police.
Here I use the word “religious police”, while most domestic media use the terms “moral police” and “discipline police”. When I was in Iran, I talked to the local people and they used the word “religious police”. I think it is more appropriate.
The Iranian police later released the on-site surveillance video to prove that Amini suddenly fainted while discussing problems with the female police, died of sudden heart failure, and denied that she was abused and beaten.
This video can be seen everywhere on the Internet. In the video, Amini really fell to the ground without being attacked.
In a word, this is a bit of a Rashomon. On the one hand, the people believed that Amini was killed by the religious police, saying that the video had no voice and date, and did not believe the government’s video. On the other hand, the government said that there was video to prove that she had suddenly fallen to the ground and died. The current chaotic situation was instigated by foreign forces.
All kinds of evils on Twitter and Facebook, of course, took the opportunity to stir up the flames while they were busy. All kinds of rumors were flying around. Last time, it was said that the Iranian parliament passed a bill by 290 votes to 227, deciding to execute all the protesters, saying that the Iranian authorities would let the rebels learn the most painful lesson.
Such extreme and violent information, which violates the political logic, mostly comes from rumors on Twitter.
The essence of political struggle is to maximize the controllable and distributable resources on the premise of obtaining stability and balance, rather than killing all the enemies.
The reason that the Iranian government said “instigation by foreign forces” is certainly not tenable. This time it is Iran’s internal contradiction. Foreign forces may make noise again after the event, and spend some money to promote the event more and more intense. But this time they are not the ones who ignite the fire, they are pushing the boat along the river.
To say that the internal conflict of any country is a color revolution led by the United States is a lack of dialectical thinking. It is simply to blame the problem on external causes, while completely ignoring the internal causes.
In short, we don’t believe the rumors on Twitter, nor do we believe the Iranian government’s “incitement by foreign forces”.
Now things are getting worse and worse. After more than two months, things haven’t calmed down at all. A large number of celebrities have come out to speak freely for women, demanding the abolition of the compulsory headscarf and religious police, and things have gradually escalated to dissatisfaction with the Iranian government and venting on the current bad economy and unemployment.
The government has a tough attitude, one by one, including football star Mahini, composer Mona, singer Sherwin, and famous football star Ali Dey.
Yes, it is Ali Daiyi who once kicked the Chinese men’s football team to death on the football field.
Forty days after Amini’s death, 53 year old football coach Ali Dai Yi went to Amini’s hometown city to participate in the protest march in front of her grave. The Iranian government confiscated his passport for this purpose, and then put him under house arrest in a government hotel guarded by security forces at the end of October.
The predecessors set an example, so when the World Cup was held on November 21, the news that the Iranian national team refused to sing the national anthem and kept silent collectively emerged.
At present, the protests have become increasingly fierce. A large number of women have uploaded videos on the Internet of removing their turbans, burning them at the parade site. The Iranian security forces have launched water cannons, tear gas response, and armed counter insurgency, and even launched 73 ballistic missiles against the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region at the end of September.
Among those arrested, a small number of people who burned government buildings were sentenced to death, and five were sentenced to 5-10 years in prison.
The demonstration has resulted in 336 deaths, 15100 arrests and chaos throughout the country.
Iran is a very special country. They are conservative in public and open in private. They have democratic elections and parliaments, but the divine right is above everything.
The source of all these strange phenomena is Khomeini.
When Khomeini formed Iran, the basic structure he laid down for the country determined the various visions of Iran today.
Before Khomeini came to power, Iran belonged to the Pahlavi dynasty, which was a short-lived comprador dynasty and had been passed on for two generations. The turning point of governance was the failure of land reform.
At that time, 55% of the land in Iran belonged to 200000 landlords, 13% to priests, 14% to the royal family and the government, 17% to 7 million self-employed farmers, and there were still seven or eight million tenant farmers without land in the country. The king planned to carry out land reform and distribute the land of the royal family, priests, and landlords to farmers.
The king even changed his own life, which seems to be a great thing, but politics is very complicated. The king’s micromanagement is too poor, so he killed it.
The main reason for the collapse was that the king did not dare to hold a gun against the heads of all classes and directly ask them to hand over the means of production, but wanted to negotiate in a relaxed manner and ask the farmers to spend money to buy land. This indecisive revolution created a lot of problems. The farmers were extremely poor and had no money to buy land. As a result, a bunch of young moths came out later, which tortured the farmers.
In the end, the king offended all classes and farmers. In addition, farmers swarmed into the city and lived in slums, resulting in fierce conflicts in the city.
The land reform in China was much happier that year. The landlords were directly asked to hand over their land, and the recalcitrant land was directly destroyed. As a result, the society would be stable if farmers had land to grow, so there was no such bloody plot in Iran.
As I said before, the Pahlavi Dynasty was a comprador dynasty. When farmers came to the city, they found that the national resources were in the hands of Britain and the United States, and they were inferior to foreigners. The salary of some foreign ink was hundreds of times lower than theirs. Moreover, the city has been modern since the 1930s, without religious practices, and women have not worn headscarves for a long time. They all resented the rustic atmosphere of migrant workers from the countryside and the growing contradiction.
We often see a pile of photos of the Pahlavi Dynasty on the Internet, saying how civilized and modern women were at that time, to prove the progressiveness of the Pahlavi Dynasty.
In fact, this is only a part of reality. What is the difference between the men and women in these photos and the rich Europeans? Most Iranian people did not live such a life, just like the rich people on the beach in the Republic of China could not represent China.
Most of the Iranian people are simple and honest sharecroppers in the countryside. They haven’t read any books. According to the words of the uncle of the mullah, when they see Teheran women without headscarves, they will feel that they are indecent.
Pahlavi’s land reform had almost offended all domestic forces. After all, he had taken over land, just like killing his parents. The landlord and the priest class hated him deeply. Khomeini, the priest class, was against him, even if he was exiled overseas.
After the failure of the land reform, the price of Iran soared. Pahlavi again handed the responsibility to the businessmen, arrested 7500 people and fined more than 10000 people. This caused anger and resentment, and offended all sectors of the country.
But it doesn’t matter. As for the comprador dynasty, it won’t collapse under the cover of foreigners. Unfortunately, Pahlavi has offended the United States again.
The inflation caused by the two oil crises in the 1970s has caused a great blow to the West. The President of the United States flew to see Pahlavi personally several times to ask him to hold down the oil price. Pahlavi, in order to build Iran into the fifth largest country in the world, hated the cash flow brought by oil and did not give the President of the United States face. As a result, the United States was very angry with him and decided to abandon him.
In short, Pahlavi is a good man, able to deal with people and has a good idea, but his political level is too low, and he has offended all domestic and foreign forces.
Come on, Pahlavi, let’s review this paragraph again:
The essence of political struggle is to maximize the controllable and distributable resources on the premise of obtaining stability and balance, rather than killing all the enemies.
Why did Khomeini finally overthrow Pahlavi? Pahlavi had 400000 elite soldiers in his hands. The missionary group was unarmed at that time. The rebellion could be successful just by chanting scriptures?
No, it was the United States that ordered not to allow the Iranian army to suppress, and it was the United States that forced the Pahlavi dynasty into exile.
As long as the United States nods, Khomeini will die in exile in Paris. As long as the United States nods, Khomeini’s poor fans will be crushed into slag by 400000 troops.
Why did the United States hate Iran so much later? It was I who gave you the chance to come to power. When you came to power, you kidnap our embassy first. Do you cross the river and destroy the bridge!
There are so many enemies of Pahlavi that Khomeini could not have lined up.
At that time, the situation was very complicated. The opposition consisted of the communist Tudh Party, the left-wing Islamic People’s Jihad, the Student Union, the Freedom Movement and other major sects. Even within the clerical class, there were also two giants, Talegani and Montaze, competing with Khomeini.
Moreover, everyone has different views. Talegani and Montazer are open-minded and think that women should be respected. If they come to power, Iranian women will never wear headscarves again.
Khomeini was pushed out because he cursed Pahlavi most harshly, for a long time, fiercely and persistently. His son’s death was not clear, which made him feel sad as a martyr. In 1979, Khomeini reached the peak of popularity due to the death of all the big men. Just in 1978, the revolution happened, and Khomeini was pushed to be the leader of the opposition.
After that, Pahlavi was forced to flee by the United States, and Khomeini, who had been in exile for 15 years, returned to his native land to take power and established the Islamic Republic.
Note that Khomeini represents the conservative clerical class, rather than communists, bourgeoisie, liberals or enlightened groups within the clerical class seizing power, so Iran will go back.
After Khomeini came to power, he purged the political elites of other classes through a series of complex political tactics. Talegani was killed by assassination, Masud was banned from election, and Shariat Madari was detained. Members of the Tud Party, the People’s Jihad, and the People’s Daredevil guerrillas were executed in large numbers.
Khomeini also established his branch at the grass-roots level through the Shiite network, firmly controlling the whole country.
At the beginning, the Islamic Republic did not explain the details of Islam clearly. After the founding of the country, it was conservative Islam, so we were familiar with religious police, women must wear headscarves, educational reform, film censorship, and so on.
City residents and students opposed returning to the conservative Islamic world, but were violently suppressed by the Revolutionary Guard. Other people read little books and did not feel too disgusted.
Khomeini glanced at the unwashed blood on the ground, and the matter was settled happily.
However, in order to leave room for compromise with the secular world, Khomeini did not bring Iran back to the medieval world. He slowly opened up music, chess and cards, movies, etc., and Iran advocated “Islamization but not Arabization” and “neither the East nor the West”, which made the whole country of Iran look very strange.
They ask for halal in public, but they are really open-minded in private.
I once met a Chinese student in Tehran. He told me that Persian girls are actually quite bold, especially interested in foreigners. As long as you are not too selective, like him, he has slept with more than 100 local girls for four years in Persia.
I was stunned.
Chinese tourists in Iran also often hear that people are relatively normal on the street. Once they get home, local people drag strangers to have parties and smoke hookah. This is the result of compromise between Khomeini and the secular world.
Again, the key point is that Khomeini established the rule of conservative priests, and this class became the ruling class in Iran.
Reflected into reality, there are various phenomena such as “women must wear headscarves” and “the clerical class actually controls the army and economy”.
Not all Iranian women are against wearing a headscarf. Some of them are willing to wear a headscarf. Most of them are against wearing a headscarf.
Iranian women should have the freedom of choice, but this freedom challenges the cultural rule of the clerical class.
In 2012, the former Iranian President Ahmadinejad, who was a civilian, said frankly in his public speech that “300 Iranian clerical families own 60% of the country’s property”, which upset the entire clerical class. In 2013, he left office and went back to school to teach.
There are more than 300000 priests in Iran, plus millions of relatives. After Khomeini received the wealth of Pahlavi, he established a total of 120 foundations, controlling the main industries and enterprises in Iran, accounting for 80% of the country’s GDP. These 120 foundations were allocated to the hands of various clergy and controlled by various clergy families.
The priests also ruled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, which was used to control Iran’s oil revenues.
This army is also allowed to do business. It is a business empire with thousands of enterprises. Its annual income is tens of billions of dollars. When I investigated in Tehran, the local people pointed to buildings and said to me:
This building belongs to the Revolutionary Guard, so does that one, and so does that one.
Financial power, military power, divine power, money bags, guns and pens fell into the hands of 300000 priests and thousands of great priests, which formed a stable ruling class in Iran.
It seems strange to analyze Iran from the perspective of culture alone, but if you look at Iran from the perspective of economic chain, you can see the internal contradictions of the country at a glance as long as you check who owns the wealth.
A country with a theocracy, inevitably, will let the upper class popes access to a large number of national resources.
When the economy is depressed and the people are more and more disappointed, the domestic contradiction between the clergy and the masses will be extremely prominent.
In 2021, Iran’s inflation rate will be 43.4%, and this year it has always exceeded 40%.
At the same time, because of the long-term impact of sanctions and epidemic, the unemployment rate will be 11.5% in 2021 and more than 10% in 2022.
Amini’s death, seen directly, is against the cultural rules formulated by the conservative priests. Seen indirectly, it is against the priests’ occupation of national wealth, which is the result of uneven distribution.
This incident will become more and more serious. Merchants are closed, students are on strike, and even oil workers have issued statements. If the police do not stop arresting and suppressing demonstrators, they will stop working.
I personally believe that the political structure dominated by priests has reached sunset after more than 40 years of rule.
When we wrote this article, we consulted several Chinese in Iran. According to their reaction, most Iranians supported the demonstration. In Tehran, many women did not wear headscarves when driving, shopping or shopping. The police did not care about it, and they turned a blind eye temporarily.
The main appeal of the parade is “women, life and freedom”, and the other is strong dissatisfaction with the religious ruling class.
The best way for Iran to deal with it is to take the Amini incident and gradually take the initiative to remove religious rule in terms of culture and economy. Otherwise, it may result in extremely fierce internal conflicts.
After all, this time, the patience of the Iranian people has become unbearable.
Of course, it is almost impossible for vested interests to change their own lives.
In 2019, King Bo and I visited the cemetery of Hafiz, an important poet in Salaz. We sat in a group of Persian girls and talked with them. I said that Iranian women must wear headscarves. Do you all like wearing headscarves?
They all said they didn’t like it. They didn’t like it very much. We hated wearing headscarves.
I saw a seven or eight year old girl beside me and asked her if she would wear a headscarf when she grew up.
The little girl winked the big Persian eyes and shook her head.
She said she would never wear a headscarf when she grew up.