Author: Ming shusource: official account: Ming shuzatan wechat ID: laomingdashu
Entering September 2022, Russia encountered its biggest defeat on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield since the war began.
According to the Ukrainian side, in just a few days, the Ukrainian army recovered about 3000 square kilometers of occupied territory.
Intuitively speaking, the Ukrainian army has driven almost all the Russian troops out of Kharkov state, the North has reached the Russian Ukrainian border, the East is only 10 to 20 kilometers away from Lugansk state, which has previously declared independence, and the South has even invaded Donetsk state, which has previously declared independence in some areas.
The figure below shows the gains and losses of Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield from September 6 to September 11. The purple part is the original and newly occupied area of the Ukrainian army, and the area has expanded a lot in just a few days. Although the Ukrainian army has repeatedly “exaggerated the results”, the results reported by the Ukrainian army this time seem basically reliable.
To tell the truth, there is only one word to describe the Russian army in this way, that is, “pulling the crotch, really pulling the crotch”.
Many reasons have been analyzed online, including but not limited to:
——The Russian army underestimated the enemy. Since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, the Russian army has been facing the problem of insufficient troops because of its long front. Before the Kharkov rout, in response to the Ukrainian army’s counter offensive in the southern Kherson state, part of the Russian army’s troops withdrew south, further resulting in the emptiness of troops in the Kharkov direction;
——After receiving continuous training, equipment and intelligence support from NATO countries, the Ukrainian army has improved its combat effectiveness and applied its tactics properly;
——The Russian army’s battlefield situation awareness is too poor. The Ukrainian army failed in its counter offensive in Kherson oblast before, but since then, it has assembled heavy troops in the direction of Kharkov. The Russian army has either failed to judge the Ukrainian army’s tactical intention, or is still blind and arrogant, and is not ready to meet the enemy.
The rout of the Russian army on the northern battlefield has made some “pro american and anti Russian” people in China happy and full.
What does the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have to do with you? Besides, if Russia is really defeated in the war, and the United States cleans up Russia and turns around to deal with China with all its strength, what will happen to you fools?
Although Russia suffered the Kharkov rout, you can take a look at the map below. At present, the battlefield situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is relatively clear, and the Russian army still occupies a certain advantage:
——Russia still occupies Lugansk state in its entirety;
——Russia occupied about half of the Donetsk region and maintained the trend of advancing to the northwest;
——Russia has occupied more than half of zaporoze state and almost all of Kherson state, ensuring the smoothness of the corridor from Crimea to Donbas and then to Russia.
Over the past two days, many people have asked: “is Russia really going to lose?”
The “Pro us and anti Russian” people in China raised this question to prove that their judgment has always been correct. From the very beginning of the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, they believed that “Russia is a bad guy, Russia is an aggressor, and Russia will surely lose”.
For those in China who have a clear understanding of global geopolitics and Sino US struggle, raising this question implies a little worry, because everyone can think with their toes that if Russia is really defeated, it will definitely not be good for China.
When we discuss whether Russia will lose, we first need to define the criteria for Russia’s success and failure in the Russian Ukrainian conflict?
In fact, since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on February 24, 2022, Russia has faced two choices:
First, they launched an all-out attack on Kiev, forcing the Ukrainian government to surrender in the shortest possible time and forcing the latter to sign an alliance under the city.
Obviously, facts have repeatedly proved that Russia does not have such strength at all.
Moreover, from the very beginning, Russia also greatly underestimated the determination of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians to “defend their country” with the support of the United States and other western countries.
Moreover, even if Russia quickly occupied the whole territory of Ukraine in the form of “blitz” and supported a pro Russian government, the final result may not be good.
Russia knows the lessons of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq.
If foreign troops want to occupy a country, whether they win or lose on the battlefield, they will always lose in the end.
The U.S. military fought in Afghanistan for 20 years. Finally, just a few weeks after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban made a comeback, which is clear.
Second, quickly occupy the Donbass region and open up the land transportation corridor from Russia to Crimea, and then confront the Ukrainian army along the southeast of Ukraine for a long time.
In this process, Russia can continue to attack Ukraine’s military and economic infrastructure and weaken Ukraine’s ability to continue the war.
This is the best choice for Russia.
So far, Russia has basically completed 70-80 percent of this strategic goal.
However, Russia has not completed its occupation of the whole territory of Donetsk. At the same time, the Russian army’s attack on Ukraine’s military and economic infrastructure was also weak, resulting in Ukraine’s continued ability to resist and counterattack with the support of western countries.
This not only makes it difficult for Russia to expand its war results, but also makes the existing war results that Russia has obtained face the threat of Ukrainian army’s counterattack at any time.
For Russia, failure can also be divided into several different levels:
First, if Russia can not completely occupy and effectively defend the entire Donbas region, including Lugansk and Donetsk, Russia will fail even if it fails to achieve the pre war war war goals;
Second, if Russia loses control of the land corridor from Russia to Crimea, and Crimea itself is also threatened by Ukrainian troops, it will be a big defeat;
Third, if in the end, Russia not only did not completely take the Donbass region, but also lost Crimea, it would be a fiasco.
Whether Russia will be defeated or not depends on whether the Russian army is strong or continues to pull the crotch.
In addition, the key depends on how much Russia is prepared to spend and how many troops to end the war.
Russia has a regular army of 1.027 million, and has recently added 137000 troops, with a total of more than 1.15 million.
However, in fact, since Russia defined this conflict as “special military action” rather than an all-out war from the beginning, Russia has not declared war on Ukraine, let alone mobilized the whole country for the war. So far, the volunteers of the Russian army, not the conscripts, have participated in the war in Ukraine. This has caused Russia to always face the problem of too long a front and insufficient troops on the battlefield.
As for why the Russian army has not done its best on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield so far, outsiders speculate that there may be several reasons:
First, Russia supports Ukraine. It believes that “you don’t have to kill a chicken with a knife” when dealing with Ukraine;
Second, in order to avoid large-scale war damage, so as not to intensify domestic anti war voices;
Third, we should have a back hand to prepare for the worst that may happen to the United States and other NATO countries.
In this case, it is also a good choice for Russia to “retreat” from Kharkov and turn to defend the Donbass region and protect the land passage of Crimea.
In addition, Russia concluded that with the arrival of winter in the northern hemisphere, by cutting off oil and gas and exerting pressure on European countries, especially Germany, Russia could force Germany and other European countries to push Ukraine to start serious negotiations.
However, it is clear that Russia may not be able to boost its economy on this issue.
It is true that Europe will face a cold winter, but the behind the scenes leader of the Russian Ukrainian conflict has never been a European country, but the United States. As long as the United States does not call for a halt, Ukraine will definitely not stop fighting, let alone surrender.
At the same time, as a defeated country in World War II, Germany has a large number of US troops stationed in the country. Germany can not break the shackles of the United States around its neck, but it can cause enough casualties to Russia by supporting Ukraine, so as to force Russia to stop the war and seek peace first.
The Russian army’s rout in Kharkov took place against such a background.
Next, there will be two long and cruel “tug of war” between Russia and Ukraine:
The first “tug of war” was a confrontation, war and tug of war between Russia and Ukraine along the Donbass region, zaporoze, Kherson and Crimea in Southeast Ukraine;
The second “tug of war” took place between Russia and European countries. Was it the European countries that supported Ukraine’s counter offensive and made Russia gradually retreat and finally had to seek peace, or was it Russia that cut off oil and gas to Europe and forced European countries to make Ukraine stop fighting and seek peace?
In any case, Russia must be clear that for both Ukraine and European countries, what Russia can not get on the battlefield is even less likely to get at the negotiation table.
Next, the key is to see the performance of the Russian army on the battlefield.
From common sense, if Russia does its best to fight Ukraine, there will be no problem. Especially since the outbreak of the war, Russia’s oil and gas income has increased rather than decreased, and Russia is not short of money.
However, Russia’s crotch pulling performance from the start of the war to now is indeed a “mystery”.
From the history of Russia, is this kind of pulling the crotch the kind of pulling the crotch shown by Tsarist Russia in the Crimean War from 1853 to 1856, or the kind of pulling the crotch shown by the Soviet Union in the Soviet Finnish war from 1939 to 1940?
At present, it looks more like the latter.
In the Crimean War, it was inevitable that the poorly equipped and trained tsarist Russian army could not defeat the British French allied forces that emerged in the industrial revolution. In the Soviet Finnish war, the Soviet army attacked the weak with force, but still showed a pulling hip, which is very similar to the performance of the Russian army in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
For Russia, the strategic objectives and steps of this special military operation can be adjusted, but in any case, Russia cannot accept failure, because once it fails, Russia will suffer a major blow, Putin’s personal prestige will be seriously damaged, and his legitimacy in power may be lost.
Of course, for Russia, there are still two “big killers” that are useless: first, to mobilize in an all-round way and do everything possible to confront Ukraine. Even a disastrous victory is better than failure; Second, the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
For anyone who loves peace, the best choice is to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible. However, it is clear that the United States will not stop until Ukraine is used to death and disability.
For Russia, it really needs to summon up 12 points of energy, concentrate on attacking with all its strength, make Ukraine and the United States despair through irrefutable victories on the battlefield as soon as possible, and force European countries to surrender through the cold winter.
If Russia fails to do this, it is inevitable that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be protracted. Both Russia and Ukraine will pay a heavy price for this, and Europe, as a “chessboard”, will eventually be smashed.
For the people in China, we certainly support peace and call for peace, but China is neither the main participant in the Russian Ukrainian conflict nor the main mediator behind the scenes. If we want war or peace, we mainly depend on the choices of Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the United States.
However, we must have a basic bottom line in mind: it is almost impossible for the United States to eat up Russia and even subvert Putin’s regime at once, and then turn all its strength to the Asia Pacific region to deal with China.
If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues for a long time, the United States will “use Ukraine to control Russia”, and China will “unite with Russia to resist the United States”. The final winner will depend on whether their respective strategies and tactics are used properly. If we speak a little more abstrusely, it depends on their “national fortunes”.