The article was originally created by the “blood drink” official account. Wechat: caojianming1989
According to the people’s daily, on May 25, 2021, in view of the current economic situation, the state issued a package of “33 measures in six aspects” to stabilize the economy, involving a total of 12trillion yuan, including tax rebates, special bonds for railway and aviation, and small and micro loans. This plan is also called the 12trillion yuan rescue plan by the market.
The size of the 12trillion economic plan is three times that of the 4trillion during the 2008 financial crisis. After the news was released, the market was jubilant and began to look forward to the subsequent sharp rise in the property market and stock market.
As far as China was concerned, the 4trillion yuan released directly promoted the strong rise of China’s stock market and real estate market. The injection of a large amount of funds enabled China to recover from the global economic crisis triggered by the United States. Will the situation reappear today when the 12 trillion yuan was announced?
To solve this problem, we must make it clear that is, is the 12 trillion yuan this time the same as the 4 trillion yuan that year? The answer is No.
The 4trillion in 2008 is essentially the practice of MMT’s modern monetary theory in China. The release of these days’ basic currencies directly gave birth to China’s local debt. Before 2008, China basically had no local debt problem. However, since 2009, China’s local debt has soared under the huge amount of money. By 2015, it has surged to 13 trillion yuan, and by 2022, it has surged to 30 trillion yuan. It can be said that 4trillion yuan has directly stimulated the rapid development of the national real estate market including infrastructure, achieved the sustained growth of China’s economy from 2008 to 2021, and created huge local debts.
In terms of effect, the Chinese version of 4trillion in that year, like the 4trillion brought about by the three rounds of QE launched by the United States in 2009, has promoted economic development and temporarily got rid of the trough brought about by the subprime mortgage crisis. The biggest difference between the two is that China has carried 4trillion of debt on the local government rather than the Central Bank of China, while the United States has carried 4.4 trillion of Wall Street debt on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve.
At the same time, like the US version of 4trillion, China’s 4trillion is also a helicopter money distribution mode. The government directly prints money to buy bonds, which is actually carrying the infrastructure debt to the government.
If the 4trillion in 2008 is a strong stimulus of flood irrigation, then the 12trillion this time is a weak stimulus. The difference is that the last 4trillion used unconventional QE monetary nuclear weapons, while the current 12trillion is just conventional weapons using conventional monetary instruments. After careful observation, we will find that the current $12trillion is mainly for providing credit, but it still needs to provide other assets as collateral, which is completely different from the original $4trillion direct drainage. In essence, the 12 trillion yuan is still the economic stimulus plan implemented by the state with conventional monetary policy tools.
Another basis for supporting this view is that over the years, China has been making large-scale fixed asset investment. This time, 12trillion is also a large-scale fixed asset investment focusing on infrastructure. Compared with other years, 12trillion is not very large. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2021, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 51.9 trillion yuan; From January to December 2021, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) will be 54.4 trillion yuan; From January to February 2022, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) will reach 5.07 trillion yuan. Looking at the above three figures, will you still think that the investment of 12trillion yuan this time is a lot? Compared with the scale of fixed asset investment in 2020 and 2021, this 12trillion is more like the central government urging local governments to speed up the implementation of this year’s fixed asset investment to boost the national economy.
It will be much easier to understand that the focus of this $12 trillion is the weak stimulus plan adopted to stabilize the national economic market, and then to analyze the views that are getting more and more attractive. Some bricklayers converted the 12trillion weak stimulus into a strong stimulus similar to the 4trillion QE flood, and then used the public’s illusion that 4trillion would boost the national economy to deduce the conclusion that the real estate market and stock market are about to soar, which is pure confusion and misleading the country and the people.
From the 1.2 trillion reduction in reserve requirements in December 2021 to the large-scale interest rate reduction in January 2022, we see a very strange trend, that is, the reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates did not lead to a rise in the stock market and property market, especially the stock market, which fell from 3700 points in December 2021 to 2860 points. According to the experience during the stock market crash in 2015, as long as the state cuts reserve requirements and interest rates on a large scale, the stock market will rise, but this law has failed now. From December 2021 to January 2022, the cumulative reserve requirement and interest rate cuts within two months not only failed to boost the market, but also led to a decline in the stock market. This shows that the effect of stimulating the national economy through the release of liquidity measures is gradually passivated, which is the phenomenon of QE passivation first proposed by the whole network in my article on february9,2021.
According to this concept, I did not publish the conclusion that the stock market will rise after the central bank announced the RRR reduction on December 6, 2021. Instead, on December 13, 2021, I published an article entitled “why the stock market always rises at the end of the year” on my microblog, which clearly pointed out that this rise is just a “year-end bonus market”. Please hold your money and don’t follow the trend. Facts have proved that the subsequent development of the stock market has fully confirmed my judgment. My prediction of December 13 is indeed the highest point of 3700 A shares in the past year. After that, the stock market began to decline all the way.
The reason why I can predict the trend of the stock market in advance is simply based on QE passivation. At the same time, the judgment of QE passivation is still the downward pressure of consumption ceiling. From 2014, when the Federal Reserve began to scale back and raise interest rates to 2018, when trump secretly stopped raising interest rates, and from 2018 to 2021, when the Federal Reserve printed unlimited QE money to drive up global inflation, China’s economy has repeatedly experienced the double blow of super deflation and super inflation, and individuals and enterprises have also experienced the double damage of cold deflation and hot inflation. The subsequent rise in property prices, the downturn in the stock market and the decline in corporate efficiency have all led to a relative decline in the disposable income of domestic residents, At the same time, the uncertainty of the future economic situation makes ordinary residents gradually change their ideas and start saving money for emergencies. Therefore, under the dual effect of the reduction of income available for expenditure and the concept of “cash is king”, the ceiling of consumption begins to fall.
Just think, if everyone is reducing expenditure, then the production income will inevitably decrease. Production and consumption are down, and exports are under the pressure of the epidemic and the United States. Consumption, production and exports are not ideal, which in turn leads to the reversal of people’s expectations for the future. It has become the consensus of the people to ensure the most basic needs, no longer consume in advance, and save a lot of money. Anyone can see that this is a dead cycle.
Under the expected change, individuals and enterprises will no longer seek loans for consumption and expand production, which will further depress the ceiling of consumption. As a result, even if the reserve requirement reduction and interest rate reduction release a large amount of liquidity, no one takes the initiative to lend, and the stimulus effect of monetary release on the real economy begins to be infinitely passivated, which is the fundamental reason for QE passivation.
Internationally, the Federal Reserve has started to raise interest rates continuously as I judged, which has led to the withdrawal of US dollars from the global market. In the process of raising interest rates, the United States will continue to crack down on oil prices and raise interest rates with low oil prices and a strong dollar. It is important to know that many domestic chemical and steel enterprises are doing well at present. This is on the premise of bulk price increases. Once the Fed increases interest rates to hit the price of crude oil and other bulk products, the Fed’s interest rate increase will not stop because of market expectations. As long as the United States balances Saudi Arabia again, the slump in crude oil and other bulk products will be irreversible. At that time, deflation will break out again, and the stock market and property market will plummet and exports will be hit again in 2014-2016.
Under the current circumstances, the state is responding to such adverse situations at home and abroad by adopting the 12trillion market rescue policy, which is worthy of full affirmation. Because if we strengthen infrastructure and stabilize the real estate market at the same time, infrastructure investment will be stable, there will be convenient credit channels, and the wages of migrant workers and ordinary workers will be paid smoothly. At the same time, with income, expenditures will expand and economic development will be supported.
At the same time, we should see that from 4trillion to now, QE passivation has become more and more obvious, which suggests that we must find other methods other than existing policies to strategically reverse the current dilemma.
In this regard, the state has put forward a major countermeasure. However, this countermeasure has been almost submerged in the uproar of 1.2 billion flood irrigation.
This major response has two main signals:
First, on April 10, 2022, the state issued the opinions on accelerating the construction of the national unified market.
Second, on April 14, 2022, the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal was opened to water supply, and the water supply was realized on April 28. This is the first time that the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal has been opened to water in a century.
Many people feel very confused. Why did the state issue the opinions on building a national unified market at this event node? Why is it that the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal is quickly replenished and dredged? What is the internal relationship between these two policies?
To build a national unified market, many people interpret it as getting rid of local protectionism. Is that really the case? In fact, the construction of a unified market is a very systematic and grand plan. Its core goal is to eliminate the imbalance of regional development and uniformly distribute and dispatch all economic factors throughout the country.
In this sense, the construction of a national unified market is a long-term goal of Hongda, which cannot be achieved overnight. Perhaps our generation may not be able to see the real national unified market. However, the national unified market has been successfully realized in history and is closely related to the completion of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal.
[historical longitude and latitude of the national unified market]
Historically, the construction process of the national unified market began in the period of emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty.
In 605 A.D., Pei Ju, a servant of the yellow gate, proposed to the emperor the strategic idea of opening up the Hexi Corridor and restoring the land silk road. This idea coincided with that of the emperor. Later, Pei Ju was sent to Zhangye, Gansu Province, where he offered favorable conditions to encourage merchants from the western regions to trade with the Central Plains. In just five years, he opened the Hexi Corridor and restored the land silk road directly to Chang’an; In 605, when Pei Ju was passing through the Hexi Corridor, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty ordered the construction of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal. It took only four years to open the 2000 km Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal. After the opening of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, the Sui Dynasty established direct contact with the rich regions of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, including Yangzhou.
At the beginning of 609 ad, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty led hundreds of thousands of people to visit the Hexi Corridor, becoming the first emperor to set foot in the Hexi corridor. During the cruise, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty led his troops to defeat Tuyuhun, completely relieved his threat to the Hexi Corridor, and fully cooperated with peiju to broaden the silk road. On the Shandan grassland at the foot of the Qilian Mountains in Zhangye, Gansu Province, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty met with Hu merchants from 27 countries in the western regions led by Pei Ju, and held an unprecedented “International Exposition” in world history here.
Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty toured the Hexi Corridor in the west, and his support for peiju’s strategy in the western regions was unprecedented. This ten month tour to the West was an important milestone in the history of Sino Western trade and laid a solid foundation for the prosperity of the Tang Dynasty. This foundation is the national unified market jointly planned by Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty.
In 605 A.D., the specific content of the national unified market outlined by Pei Ju and Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty in their talks has not been known, but we can still outline the overall picture of the national unified venue through their actions, that is, after opening the Hexi Corridor, the three main channels from the East coast of the Mediterranean to Chang’an can carry the products and cultures from the east coast of the Mediterranean to Chang’an, Chang’an connects North China, central China and Shandong through the Yongji canal in the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, and then connects Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and other rich coastal areas through the Tongji canal.
More importantly, the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal opened up and directly connected the land Silk Road and the maritime Silk Road. Yangzhou, the terminus of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, is an important port on the maritime Silk Road. From here to Quanzhou, Guangzhou and other ports, you can access Arabia, the Red Sea and the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea by sea. The Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal connects Chang’an and Yangzhou, and Yangzhou is the starting point of the maritime Silk Road. The silk, tea and other products of southern regions such as Yangzhou can be exported to the countries along the land Silk Road through Chang’an, and the products of northern regions such as Chang’an and Luoyang can also be brushed to the coastal areas of the maritime Silk Road through the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal.
At the same time, the central Sichuan region can reach Chang’an in the East and Guangzhou in the southeast. The products of this important economic zone can also be exported to the world through the land and Maritime Silk Road trade network.
A careful observation of the strategic planning of the emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty will reveal that through the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal and the development of the Hexi Corridor, they successfully integrated all the economic zones in China at that time, such as Guanzhong, Longxi, Zhongyuan, Hebei, central Sichuan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China. With the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, Hexi Corridor, maritime Silk Road and Shu Road as the backbone, an economic layout similar to the horizontal X shape can be formed. Under this economic layout, the products of the whole China can flow along the backbone of the economic layout. The white porcelain of Xingyao in Hebei can reach Guangzhou by land and water through the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal and the maritime Silk Road, and the tea and bronze mirrors of Yangzhou can be transported to Chang’an and exported to Iran and Persia through the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal. Since it can transport products, it can naturally drive the flow of technology and personnel. On this network, any market element can flow and allocate quickly and without obstacles. This is almost the same as the guiding ideology in the opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified market issued by the state on April 11.
It can be seen from these plans that the national unified market planned by the emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty was indeed far sighted. At the same time, we have also seen that although the Sui Dynasty finally perished because of the peasant uprising at the end of the Sui Dynasty, the following Tang Dynasty fully inherited the heritage including the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal and the imperial examination system, and continued to practice the strategy of national unified market:
In 630 ad, the fourth year of Zhenguan, Li Shimin sent Li Jing to defeat the eastern Turks and completely remove the military threat of Turks to the Hexi Corridor and the Central Plains; In 657 ad, Emperor Gaozong of the Tang Dynasty sent Su dingfang, the great general of youtunwei, to defeat Western Turks in the first battle of Jinya mountain; In 702 ad, Empress Wu Zetian of the Wu Zhou Dynasty set up the Beiting capital protectorate, which controlled central Asia and Qinghai Tibet as the Anxi capital protectorate; In 741 ad, gaoxianzhi led 20000 Anxi troops to defeat Xiao Bolu, and the Chinese military front reached the plateau in western Iran as far as possible. The Silk Road became wider and wider as a result of external expansion. Countries in Eurasia, including the western regions, established friendly relations with China. China was able to integrate almost all the resources in Eurasia, and finally achieved the prosperity of the Han and Tang Dynasties.
No matter how well the external development is done, it cannot be separated from the strong internal support. Its foundation is the full and efficient operation of the internal national unified market, and its backbone is the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, which connects the north and the south. In Henan and Southern Hebei along the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, China has established the largest standardized production base of handicraft industry in ancient times. Here, almost all standardized high-tech products can be produced according to the requirements of global customers. For example, porcelain bowls with YSL logo can be manufactured according to the requirements of Arab businessmen. The reason why this area became the ancient “Silicon Valley” is that this area is the turning point of the zigzag Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal. Technology led to the expansion of resources and resources led to the expansion of population. This area naturally became the most populous and economically prosperous area in China at that time. Luoyang, like Chang’an, another center of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, became two bright pearls in China’s economic crown.
The westward land Silk Road represented by Chang’an has built the widest external circulation, and the eastward Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal represented by Luoyang has built the widest internal circulation. The most powerful external circulation and the most powerful internal circulation complement each other perfectly!
Besides the two pearls, along the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, more star cities began to rise. Tianshui, Zhangye, Jiuquan and other cities with prosperous trade on the Hexi Corridor formed a bright pearl city belt. Hejian, Weizhou and Zhuozhou (Beijing) to the West and bianzhou, Songzhou, Suzhou and Yangzhou to the southeast were also bright.
From the map, 80% of the population in the Tang Dynasty was distributed along the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal in the north. Although China’s economic center was entirely in the north at that time, the North China, the Central Plains, Shaanxi Gansu Ningxia and Xinjiang at that time were by no means the old, young, border and poor areas we see now. At that time, the North was the real economic center, and the richest cities were also located in the north.
Based on the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal in the Sui and Tang Dynasties, China built the largest national unified market in ancient Chinese history 1200 years ago. In this plan, the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, the Hexi Corridor and the land Silk Road are the skeleton meridians. The Silicon Valley in Henan and Hebei is the source of technological innovation and the heart engine. Such a strong combination has made the national unified market. At the same time, the mature national unified market drives the whole country to expand westward and integrate the resources of Eurasia. In this way, we will benefit the people at home, let all the people enjoy the dividends of national rise, open up to the outside world, and make China the world’s No. 1 power. Finally, “Tang” has become a synonym for the Chinese people, and the prosperity of the Han and Tang Dynasties has achieved the Millennium glory of China!
[the prosperous age of Tang Dynasty]
Looking back at history, it can be said that the past Chinese history can not surpass the prosperous period of Han and Tang dynasties at any time. At the same time, we have also seen that after the an Shi rebellion, the Tang Dynasty began to decline, which created a new historical mystery. Why was there no prosperous era of Chinese feudal society after the Tang Dynasty?
According to the book dogma, some people believe that it was because the Tang Dynasty was militaristic and the emperor enjoyed great success. As the inheritors of Chinese civilization, how can we rely on the land developed by our ancestors to cultivate and survive while laying down our bowls and chopsticks and scolding our ancestors for being militaristic and making great achievements? In my opinion, there is only one real reason for the demise of the Tang Dynasty, that is, the destruction of the national unified market.
After the outbreak of the an Shi rebellion, the largest external circulation constructed by the land Silk Road in the west, represented by Chang’an, and the largest internal circulation constructed by the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal in the East, represented by Luoyang, fell one after another.
After the outbreak of the an Shi rebellion, the Tang Empire transferred the elite Anxi army guarding the four Anxi towns in the western regions. After the leader of the Anxi army, imperial double walled fengchangqing and gaoxianzhi were killed, the Anxi army was killed at Tongguan city under the blind command of lilongji. Then Tubo began to attack the Longyou Hexi corridor. In 808, hundreds of thousands of Tubo troops conquered the capital of the four Anxi towns, kuizi City, which was garrisoned by 8000 white headed soldiers led by Guoxin, the king of Wuwei Prefecture. So far, China’s land silk road was completely blocked.
After losing the Hexi Corridor and the westward land Silk Road, the international market exported by Datang from the Silicon Valley of Hebei and Henan to the whole Eurasian countries disappeared, and this disappearance was irreversible in the long history. Since 808, no Central Plains Dynasty in history has been able to reopen the land Silk Road to the Persian Gulf and the eastern coast of the Mediterranean. Without the most extensive international market, the most extensive external circulation of Chinese civilization withered. The landmark event was the Tibetan invasion of Chang’an. In 763 ad, 200000 Tibetan troops entered Chang’an and plundered the government treasury and Chang’an market of the Tang Dynasty.
Without the trade surplus won by silk, tea and other products, the government’s fiscal deficit in the Tang Dynasty expanded rapidly, and its fiscal revenue and expenditure deteriorated seriously. It was forced to impose a large amount of taxes on the south, just as the Ming Dynasty imposed a large amount of taxes on the northwest led to the Li Zicheng peasant uprising. The forced tax collection in the Tang Dynasty directly ignited the flames of the Huangchao uprising.
[the mystery of the fall of the Tang Dynasty]
In Chinese history, there has always been an unsolved mystery, that is, comparing the an Shi rebellion with the Huang Chao uprising, the an Shi rebellion is more powerful, more numerous, and causes deeper damage, resulting in more than 70% of the death population in the Tang Dynasty, while the Huang Chao uprising is a mob. Why was the an Shi rebellion finally put down and Huang Chao can destroy the Tang Dynasty?
This relates to another reason for the demise of the Tang Dynasty. The most extensive internal circulation constructed by relying on the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal to the East, represented by Luoyang, was completely destroyed.
Although the Anshi rebels had more people, better equipment and more professional training, they were blocked by Zhang Xun in the north of Suiyang, Henan Province. Suiyang is located near Shangqiu, Henan Province today. It is a necessary place for the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal in the Tang Dynasty to pass through the Tongji canal from Luoyang to Yangzhou. If you keep Suiyang, you will keep Jiangsu, Zhejiang, South China and other rich economic zones, and Shandong, a complete northern tax area. The Anshi rebels did not completely cut off the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal. On the whole, most of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, which dominated the unified market in the Tang Dynasty, has been preserved.
However, after the uprising led by Huang Chao broke out, it not only destroyed the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, but also its main battle area was located in the Central Plains, western Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. It even killed from Yangzhou to Guangzhou along the maritime Silk Road, especially the looting in Guangzhou, which also caused heavy damage to the maritime Silk Road. The Huangchao uprising almost covered the main economic and tax areas of the Tang Dynasty. In this catastrophe, the largest internal circulation of the Tang Dynasty, represented by Luoyang and built by the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal, was completely destroyed. With the financial bankruptcy, the state power was weakened by the local economy that replaced Huang Chao, which eventually led to the demise of the country in the process of division.
Before the Tang Dynasty, there was a prosperous period of the Han Dynasty. At that time, although there were also major disasters that led to the destruction of population and handicraft bases, the silk road was not interrupted. For example, in the late Western Han Dynasty, the Wang Mang regime continued to control the land Silk Road; In the turbulent times of the three kingdoms after the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, Cao Wei continued to control the Hexi Corridor and the western regions; The Northern Wei Dynasty and the Northern Zhou Dynasty continued to control the Silk Road during the period of the five Hu and Luanhua after the fall of the Western Jin Dynasty. In these troubled times, although the silk road was intermittent, it still remained largely unobstructed. In this way, Chinese products can continue to export to the West and occupy the international market. As long as the market exists, huge profits will exist. Driven by interests, the handicraft industry base and population can recover quickly. This is the reason why before the Tang Dynasty, China could still reach its heyday in the Han Dynasty.
However, after the fall of the Tang Dynasty, the later central dynasties could not rebuild the national unified market, which covered the widest external circulation and the widest internal circulation, similar to the prosperous Tang Dynasty.
The value of military force in the Yuan Dynasty exploded. Why didn’t it lead the Chinese civilization to prosperity again? Although the silk road was temporarily opened up in the Yuan Dynasty, the internal strife of the northwest kings soon led to its interruption. Zhu Yuanzhang, the emperor Taizu of the Ming Dynasty, intended to revive the prosperous period of the Han and Tang Dynasties. In the 24th year of Hongwu, Zhu Yuanzhang sent his crown prince Zhu Biao to Xi’an for investigation, with the intention of moving the capital to Xi’an. Zhu Yuanzhang, the emperor Taizu of the Ming Dynasty, knew that Nanjing was not suitable for dominating the whole country. Only by moving its capital to Xi’an, the capital of the Han and Tang Dynasties, and then the emperor guarding the gate of the country and learning from Wei Qing, Huo Qubing and other Han sons and daughters to open up the Hexi corridor to the West and the whole land Silk Road, could it reproduce its glory. However, the Jingnan war and the south of Mongolia and ancient China tied the Ming army to the north, and the Ming Dynasty was unable to concentrate its troops to open up the Hexi corridor to the West, It can only push its sphere of influence to Hami Wei in Gansu Province, and can only look at and sigh at the more distant Xinjiang region. By the time of the Qing Dynasty, the Hexi Corridor and the Qinghai Tibet region were under the control of kardan. It was not until the 23rd year of Qianlong’s reign that they were annexed to the Qing government. This state lasted for 70 years. Later, the Manchu and Qing Dynasties were more busy fighting in Jinchuan and Myanmar. By the time these were over, the western industrial revolution had begun, and the era of sea power had officially arrived. It was too late!
The Republic of China, not to mention the latter, almost sold the Qinghai Tibet region and the Hexi corridor to the great powers and separated itself from the domestic warlords, let alone the national unified market. Without the land Silk Road, the whole Eurasian continent would not be qualified to become the world’s first power; Without the North-South communication of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal to build a national unified market, there will be no solid economic foundation to become the world’s first power, let alone hope to reproduce the prosperity of China.
After the demise of the Tang Dynasty, China’s capital moved more and more eastward, from Chang’an in the Tang Dynasty to Kaifeng in the Northern Song Dynasty, from Kaifeng in the Northern Song Dynasty to Lin’an in Hangzhou in the Southern Song Dynasty, from Lin’an in the Southern Song Dynasty to Nanjing in the period of Zhu Yuanzhang, and from Beijing in the Qing Dynasty to Nanjing in the Republic of China. The process of moving its capital from the west to the East has made China more and more far away from Urumqi, the center of Eurasia. It is also a process of China’s gradual decline, and it is also a direct evidence that China has lost its westward March to integrate the resources of Eurasia.
In this process, the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal began to decline gradually. When the Manchu and Qing Dynasties perished 110 years ago, the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal was officially cut off. From this point of view, it can be said that the changes of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal and the land Silk Road in the Hexi Corridor are the historical witnesses of the gradual decline of Chinese civilization in the past 1000 years after the demise of the Tang Dynasty! They stood silently under the sands and torrents of history, watching sadly as the people on the Chinese land gradually lost their dignity, floating and sinking among the bloody bodies!
[the ultimate password of the unified market and the rise and fall of civilization]
At the same time, after the collapse of the national unified market in the Tang Dynasty, there were also several major consequences that had affected China’s history for thousands of years, which greatly changed China’s historical process. In the process of in-depth analysis, many historical mysteries can also be solved.
Black hole in national defense security
The land Silk Road represented by the Hexi Corridor separates the Mongolian Plateau from the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. However, after the permanent closure of the land Silk Road, the economic center of northern China began to decline due to the loss of the international market. The economy of the north, including Guanzhong, Qinghai Tibet, Longxi, Zhongyuan and Hebei, also lost the moisture of the external circulation and gradually declined.
In the agricultural era, the economic construction near the battlefield has a great impact on the victory or defeat of the war. The economic decline in the North caused the central dynasty to face great financial pressure when recovering the Hexi corridor. For example, zuozongtang spent 120 million taels of silver to recover the new ginger, while the Qing government’s income was only 60 million taels per year.
Beyond the economic difficulties, the loss of the Hexi Corridor has led to the convergence of the nomads on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, which was originally separated by the Hexi Corridor and Xinjiang, and the nomads on the Mongolian Plateau, giving birth to more brutal enemies, the most typical of which are the Turks in the Sui and Tang dynasties, the Mongols in the late Southern Song Dynasty and the Jurchen in the late Ming Dynasty. The Turks that straddled Mongolia and the Qinghai Tibet Plateau forced Emperor Wen of Sui Dynasty Yang Jian and Emperor Gaozu of Tang Dynasty Li Yuan to take office. After unifying all parts of the Mongolian Plateau, Mongolia exterminated the Tibetan Plateau and then the Southern Song Dynasty. After defeating Mongolia, the Manchu and Qing Dynasties unified the Qinghai Tibet region, circuitously attacked Nanming from Tibet and Sichuan, and finally wiped out Nanming in Myanmar. In the 21st century, NATO led by the United States expanded from Eastern Europe to Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan, supported Tibetan and Xinjiang drugs, flirted with Mongolia and almost made dumplings for China.
On the contrary, when the northern economy was still the economic center, even if the Qinghai Tibet Plateau allied with the enemies on the Mongolian Plateau, China could make a successful breakthrough. For example, the Huns who controlled Mongolia and the Qinghai Tibet region and forced the Han Dynasty to make peace were defeated by Wei Qing and Huo Qubing; The Turks who also controlled Mongolia and the Qinghai Tibet region were completely defeated by lishimin and tanggaozong. It relied on the powerful economic and financial resources provided by the North during the Han and Tang Dynasties.
Both positive and negative examples show that, driven by the national unified market, as long as the northern economy rises strongly, it can lay a solid economic foundation for China to fight against the enemies invading from the West!
Forming the traditional chaebol Shilin group
After the silk road was blocked, the economy of the North began to decline, the entire economic center of China began to move south, and the economic status of the North finally gave way to the south.
This process of economic decline in the north and the shift of economic focus to the south is most intuitively reflected in the diversion of the Sui and Tang Grand Canal, which eventually became the current Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal.
The dotted line refers to the disappeared Sui and Tang Grand Canal, while the solid line refers to the existing Grand Canal
The Sui and Tang Dynasties Grand Canal is zigzag, but the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal is vertical. Looking carefully, the Yongji canal, which crosses the Central Plains from North China to Chang’an in the northwest, has lost two-thirds of the West. The Guangtong canal has been completely excluded from the Grand Canal, while the Tongji canal from Henan to Xuyi in Jiangsu has almost disappeared. Behind the disappearance of these canal sections, the corridor areas in North China, Central Plains, Shaanxi Gansu and Hexi have been completely kicked out of the ranks of the national unified market. Without the cultivation of a unified market and the nourishment of foreign trade, the agricultural and commercial infrastructure in these areas declined rapidly, which also solved another historical mystery. That is, the Guanzhong and Hedong areas, the economic centers of the Han Dynasty, experienced large-scale population reduction after many wars and looting, but they all recovered quickly. Only after the population reduction of the an Shi rebellion, they did not recover.
The direct reason is that after the blocking of the land Silk Road, the loss of the international market began to decline here. After the diversion of the Grand Canal, it was further excluded from the national market. Without the moisture of the market, it was difficult for the natural population to gather. The population began to migrate to Luoyang in the East and further to Jiangsu and Zhejiang after the diversion of the Grand Canal. As a result, the population decreased and the land and water conservancy were desolate. Slowly, Guanzhong, which was originally an agricultural paradise Hedong area began to decline gradually. It can be said that the backwardness of today’s northwest, Central Plains and Hebei regions came from the diversion of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal after the end of the Tang Dynasty.
The diversion of the Grand Canal in the Sui and Tang Dynasties represented the dismemberment of the national unified market established in the Tang Dynasty, which was transformed from a national unified market to a local market dominated by the south. Since the Tang Dynasty, China’s finance mainly came from the south, and this pattern has not changed until now. From the song, yuan, Ming and Qing Dynasties to the Republic of China, China became more and more dependent on the finance of the south. In this process, a huge chaebol scholar group emerged.
Because they have contributed the largest financial revenue of the country, they have been actively striving for greater political rights. At the same time, the feudal dynasty that unified the whole country had to pay for maintaining the national defense security of the whole empire, especially the western region. For example, the Northern Song Dynasty used troops for the Western Xia, Liao and Jin Dynasties, and the Ming Dynasty used troops for Mobei Mongolia and built the great wall. These military facilities and actions all needed the support of the southern finance and taxation.
This led to a huge conflict between the chaebol clique represented by the chaebol scholar clique and the unifying faction of the feudal central dynasty, which maintained national unity. This kind of conflict has been carried out in Chinese history for 1000 years. This fundamental contradiction is the main line of the 1000 year political struggle since the song, yuan, Ming and Qing Dynasties.
In this struggle, there is a seemingly reasonable part of the positions of both sides. The southern plutocrats believed that they had contributed most of the national taxes and deserved more status and rights in the National Center. The national unification faction insists that China’s dragon vein mountains and rivers originated from Kunlun Mountains and have a three-step geographical layout. If the enemy’s aggression cannot be contained in the western region, the whole China, including the location of the southern plutocrats, will fall. The southern plutocrats made sacrifices for the sake of your descendants and the overall security of the country.
Later facts have repeatedly proved the correctness of the national unification faction. The northern and Southern Song Dynasties lost control of the Hexi Corridor and the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and finally died at the hands of the Jin State and Mongolia. After the collapse of the Northern Song Dynasty, Jingkang was shamed. After the collapse of the Southern Song Dynasty, the royal family was abducted to Dadu of the Yuan Dynasty. After the collapse of the Southern Ming Dynasty, they were slaughtered in Yangzhou for ten days and Jiading for three days. Under the burning, killing and looting, the southern plutocrats fell to the ground, and their accumulated wealth for hundreds of years disappeared.
Although history has repeatedly proved this truth, it has also proved many times that the only lesson that human beings can learn from history is that human beings never seem to really learn from history. In the 1000 years after the demise of the Tang Dynasty, the struggle between the national unification faction and the chaebol Shilin group took turns in various historical periods.
The first was the struggle between the national unification faction represented by Wang Anshi and the Conservatives represented by Sima Guang. This reform, supported by the emperor Shenzong of the Song Dynasty, tried to strengthen the centralization of state power in an all-round way, trained troops in the northwest to fight against the Western Xia and Liao powers, comprehensively consolidated the national security of the Northern Song Dynasty, and built a national unified market. Economically, most of the laws and regulations were aimed at the interests of the chaebol scholars’ group. The final result was the death of the Northern Song Dynasty, 40 years after the abolition of the reform laws.
In the second scene, there was a struggle between the national unification faction represented by Yue Fei and Qin Hui, represented by the southern scholars and the plutocrats. The result of the struggle was that Yue Fei was killed. After that, song LiZong succeeded to the throne. Song LiZong, who was born in zhaokuangyin’s family, fully supported the national unification faction and suppressed the Shilin chaebol group. With his support, Meng Gong led his army to capture the capital of the state of Jin and wash away the shame of Jingkang. After the death of emperor LiZong of Song Dynasty, the Shilin chaebol group came to power again, and the Southern Song Dynasty perished.
The third scene was the bitter struggle between the national unification faction represented by Zhu Yuanzhang and xungui in Huaixi. As a result, xungui in Huaixi, represented by huweiyong, lishanchang and Lanyu, was completely eradicated. However, in view of Zhu Yuanzhang’s still unable to change the historical situation that the South was the main source of taxes in the country, Zhu Yuanzhang adopted the strategy of attacking poison with poison. Zhu Yuanzhang established the royal guards, which was the pioneer of the factory guard system. After Zhu Yuanzhang, the scholar forest Chaebol continued to exist. Emperor Chengzu of the Ming Dynasty established the East factory, Emperor Xianzong of the Ming Dynasty and Emperor Wuzong of the Ming Dynasty established the West Factory and the inner factory respectively, which brought this abnormal and cold-blooded spy system into full play. The purpose of the factory guard system is to permanently monitor the Shilin chaebol group and go to prison without trial. This special means is to ensure that the Ming government can quickly eliminate the Shilin chaebol group without trial at any time, so as to prevent it from bullying the Ming government.
In addition to the factory guard system, Zhu Yuanzhang also invented the literary prison and the eight part essay, all of which were designed to clamp down on the scholar forest chaebol group with the most abundant educational resources. In the imperial examination, it was more strictly stipulated that the number of scholars selected from the north and the South should be balanced. These cruel iron fists were summed up by learning the lessons of the fall of the Song Dynasty. At that time, the national unification faction and the scholars’ plutocrats formed a terrorist balance. No one could live without anyone, and they could hold each other’s necks. It was a wonder of ancient Chinese politics!
The fourth is the struggle between the national unification faction of the Qing Dynasty and the scholars and the plutocrats. This struggle carried out the whole historical process of the Manchu and Qing Dynasties from birth to death. After entering the customs, the Manchu and Qing Dynasties carried out a brutal massacre against the southern plutocrats, which was more brutal than that of Zhu Yuanzhang. This massacre triggered the collective opposition of scholar bureaucrats and eventually triggered the Ming history case. Lu liuliang, who used the past to satirize the present, satirized the Qing Dynasty, which aroused Yongzheng’s dissatisfaction. Later, he opened his coffin and whipped his body. Later, he searched and arrested him on a larger scale, bringing the literary prison to the extreme. It can be seen that although there was no factory sanitation system in the early Manchu and Qing Dynasties, it realized the effective control of the scholars’ plutocrats.
After the rise of the Westernization Movement, the comprador group represented by Li Hongzhang rose, and they made the best use of the tactics of the scholars and the plutocrats. A typical example is Li Hongzhang’s opposition to zuozongtang’s recovery of Xin Jiang. Later, he colluded with the Jewish Rothschild and Sassoon families to defeat huxueyan, who prepared to recover Xin Jiang’s funds for zuozongtang, with Sheng Xuanhuai, and then obstructed him, As a result, the Hunan army fell short when it was about to win the Sino French war, and zuozongtang ended up depressed. Later, Li Hongzhang was designated by the Jewish capital as the first general manager after the constitutional reform of the Chinese bourgeoisie. In 1900, at the critical juncture of the invasion of China by the Eight Power Allied forces, the southern governors, who had the largest number of troops in the Qing Dynasty, lobbied by the comprador consortium to adopt the southeast mutual protection, watched the Eight Power Allied forces enter the Chinese capital and still stood by. Seven years later, an uprising against the Manchu and Qing Dynasties broke out in the same southern region. Four years later, the Manchu and Qing Dynasties were overthrown. In 1927, the comprador bourgeoisie supported by imperialism, on behalf of Chiang Kai Shek, launched a counter revolutionary movement. The leader supported by the great powers and comprador plutocrats finally brought China into the darkest moment in China’s 1000 year history – the Nanjing massacre! Today, this struggle still exists, which can be seen from the differences in the implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures.
It has greatly changed the national character of the Chinese people
Many people like to say that the Chinese people like to engage in intrigue, and also say that this is a manifestation of national character. However, this is not innate, nor does it remain unchanged. There are specific historical changes to follow. In the heyday of the Han and Tang Dynasties, not only China’s national strength was unprecedentedly strengthened, but also its national spirit was refreshing. At that time, there were not many people who dared to serve the world and the nation. During the Eastern Han Dynasty, Geng Gong led hundreds of Han troops to defend Shule City, and only 13 soldiers were left to enter the Yumen pass; Hua Mulan, a heroine who joined the army for her father and was not afraid of life and death; In 808 ad, Guoxin, the king of Wuwei Prefecture, who had been trapped in the isolated city of Anxi for more than ten years, led 8000 white headed soldiers to fight with Tubo. No one survived. Poems expressing the blood and masculinity of that era are also emerging in endlessly. Li He, a poet of the Tang Dynasty, wrote “why don’t men take Wu Gou and collect the fifty prefectures in Guanshan”, and Wang Changling wrote “yellow sand wears gold armour in hundred battles, and they don’t pay back until they break the Loulan”. From these stories and poems, we can see that the Chinese people in the Han and Tang Dynasties, both men and women, carried with them an indomitable spirit of pioneering territory for future generations. In those days, they could give up everything, including their lives, for the sake of national dignity and national righteousness.
In contrast, after the extinction of the Tang Dynasty, the Chinese national character began to gradually turn to internal intrigue, which directly came from the struggle between the national unification faction and the Shilin chaebol group that lasted for thousands of years. The rise of pragmatism and cynicism has created a large number of refined egoists. Hot blooded masculinity was ridiculed as naive and unrealistic, and the practice of “Yingyinggougou” became a golden road to deal with affairs.
Politics affects culture, and culture permeates individuals. We are in a deep sleep of thought. The import of opium numbs the spirit of the Chinese people. From 808 to 1839 to 1937, China fell into a sleep step by step. If the Nanjing Massacre in 1937 had not rekindled the remaining blood in the hearts of the Chinese people, perhaps China would really be like ancient Egypt and Babylon, It has long been a proper term in archaeology.
In the 21st century, we have also been invaded by culture again. The dirty, dirty and obscene contents in the poison teaching materials for children are disgusting. Behind these are the agents who worship foreign countries and worship foreign countries in performing the tasks assigned by their masters. Although being too late is not enough to punish them!
At the same time, we should see that even putting these animals to death at a later time may not fundamentally solve the problem. At that time, we were able to achieve the masculine and enthusiastic blood of the Han and Tang Dynasties by opening up the Silk Road to the West and building a unified national market. As long as we complete these, with the enhancement of China’s national strength and national confidence, the toxic teaching materials that knelt and licked the Western culture and destroyed the Chinese civilization will no longer exist. Only when we break the Western myth and reach the summit of world civilization, will these dirty and despicable monsters really disappear!
The same thing can also be used to look at those compradors who have surnames and names. Can we solve China’s economic problems today without them? The history of 1000 years has proved that they have changed countless times. Behind them, there is no unified behind the scenes command spanning thousands of years. In the final analysis, their coercion of the country is still an irreversible economic pattern at that time. The economic pattern cannot be changed. Killing them all is just a return to the old path of the Ming and Qing Dynasties. Only by imitating and learning from the wisdom of the Tang Dynasty, re establishing the national unified market and activating the internal and external circulation can we truly solve the problem.
The first step is to reopen the land Silk Road, which we have proposed the the Belt and Road plan. The second step is to dredge the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal again, combine the resources of the South with the potential of the west, and connect with the vast national market outside the land silk road. Only in this way can we realize the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation again.
From the past to the present, in the original inverted X-shaped economic layout of the Tang Dynasty and the national unified big market layout, Henan and Hebei are high-tech innovation bases. Corresponding to modern times, they refer to the xiong’an new area plan proposed by the state in april2017. From the map, xiong’an new area is just between Hebei and Henan. At present, we are concentrating on the backbone of science and technology to design this area as a benchmark for the future national science and technology take-off. Here, the largest scientific researchers are making every effort to tackle key problems and build xiong’an new area into a model for the future fourth generation science and technology city. The specific future will be detailed in the following articles.
Here, I would like to say the strategic significance of constructing the widest external circulation of the westward land Silk Road represented by Chang’an (Xi’an). We put forward the the Belt and Road plan in 2013 and the western development strategy in 2000. The historical development of these years shows that China has indeed ushered in and is seizing the Millennium opportunity to reopen the land silk road. In 2001, when the United States invaded Afghanistan, Russia was unable to support itself. After that, Russia tacitly accepted that China had entered its sphere of influence in Central Asia. Then China built a West to east gas transmission pipeline from Central Asia to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, opening a strategic channel of the Silk Road to the West; In 2014, the Crimean crisis broke out, and China and Russia joined hands in a comprehensive strategy. In October 2015, China and Russia jointly sent troops to Syria, and China extended its influence to the Middle East; In March, 2021, China and Iran signed a 25 year cooperation agreement on bottom hunting with a total amount of US $300billion. China has captured the largest bridgehead in Western Asia, and its sphere of influence has exceeded the Iranian plateau reached in the Tang Dynasty; In March, 2022, the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out in an all-round way, and the strategic cooperation between China and Russia advanced by leaps and bounds again. In addition to continuing to allow China to build the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway and expand its presence in Central Asia,
The Russian market is more open to China in an all-round way. Politically, economically and militarily, China and Russia have begun to integrate in depth. The result of this unlimited cooperation is that China has opened up the southern route of the Silk Road and completed the integration with Russia. After the Russian Ukrainian war, the northern route of the Chinese silk road will also be fully connected.
Once China, like the prosperous Tang Dynasty, completely opens up the Silk Road to the outside world and the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal to establish a national unified market, China will not only be qualified to integrate the resources of the entire Eurasian continent, but also the resources of the two oceans. Once fully completed, China will become the world’s largest market. At that time, the science and technology of xiong’an new area will trigger the fourth scientific and technological revolution, and the Chinese market will overwhelm the United States in an all-round way, The sea power of Britain and the United States, including the United States, will shrink in an all-round way, and America will become a marginal island under the global sphere of influence. At that time, it will not be the United States threatening to decouple from China, but the question of whether China will bring the United States to play.
Under the modern transportation system, the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal may no longer be the only element for the accumulation of resources and population, but the practical role and historical significance of the opening of the Beijing Hangzhou Grand Canal are vast and far-reaching.
Finally, I would like to say that once the land silk road is opened and the world’s largest external circulation is established, China can consider moving its capital to Xi’an, and can establish a new capital in the new city area between Xi’an and Xianyang. This will facilitate China’s integration of Eurasian resources to the West and facilitate the transfer of high-tech products produced in xiong’an new area to the world through the Eurasian special train.
At present, China’s economy is affected by the epidemic, which makes many people worried and even infinitely pessimistic. Please believe that difficulties are only temporary. The way out for the nation and economy lies in our history and in our reality. When we learn to believe in our party and our country, we will find that the Chinese wisdom is leading our people to forge ahead and rebuild brilliance.