Is the pre-sale of commercial housing reasonable? Should it be completely cancelled?

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Source: wechat official account: Daily Yijian has been authorized

Recently, the “loan suspension tide” in many places across the country has attracted everyone’s attention. Behind this incident, how many buyers did the pre-sale and pre-sale houses suffer?

When developers sell future houses, they can collect money first and then build houses. They can draw funds to continue to buy land, invest in other projects, and then sell them in advance, forming an efficient capital cycle. Of course, this is a good thing for real estate enterprises, but at the same time, the risk is also passed on to property buyers.

Capital is always greedy. Once the leverage is increased, the capital chain is broken, and finally the real estate is shut down and the house is in bad condition, all the risks can only be borne by the buyer.

So, for a time, everyone was asking the same question: is the pre-sale of commercial housing reasonable, and should it be completely cancelled?

Perhaps, this storm is in danger, which can further accelerate the implementation of the existing housing sales system.

But at this time, some experts came out to express their opposition.

At this stage, the pre-sale system of commercial housing cannot be cancelled. Why? Because once it is cancelled, the financial pressure of real estate enterprises will be greater, and house prices will rise further, which is more detrimental to home buyers.


Good guy, the cancellation of the pre-sale system is directly linked to the rise in house prices.

It seems to be a reminder, but it is actually a threat: you want to cancel the pre-sale system, right? Then our real estate enterprises can’t live. What can we do under such great pressure? We can only raise the house price. At that time, it’s your buyers who will suffer!

The lawyer almost put a few words on his face saying that he had been bribed.

I have seen shameless, but I have never seen such shameless.

If the pre-sale system is abolished, the financial pressure of real estate enterprises will increase, and the house price will rise. Logically speaking, this view cannot be refuted at all.

Because it’s a prediction of the future market. People are professional in this field. I’ll find out dozens of arguments for you every minute. If you really want to debate with them, it’s right for them.

Therefore, we don’t express our views on the future, only the present.

Your expert said, “the pre-sale system is popular and reasonable all over the world.”

Well, let’s talk about the situation in North America. According to the statement of Canadian real estate sales, they pay 5%-5%-10% in advance according to the stage of building a house. At the beginning, they only pay 5% in advance, 5% when the license comes down, 10% when the construction starts, and 80% when the rest is completed and accepted. Developers rely on everyone’s 5-5-10 to find bank loans to build a house.

We also have a pre-sale system, but when we buy a house, we pay a 30% down payment, then apply for a bank loan of 70%, and hand over the money to the developer together.

It’s equivalent to not even seeing a brick of the house, and the full amount has been given out.

Is this reasonable?

After the developer gets the full payment, so much money is enough for him to build the house, but they don’t do so. Instead, they take all the house purchase money, go to the bank, borrow another sum of money, and then take it to auction and land, so as to maintain the opening of new projects every month and maintain high turnover.

In previous years, almost all real estate enterprises have done this, even the project funds and workers’ wages, they can delay, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, why is this? Because more money, more turnover is possible. They can win more land and build more buildings.

House prices have risen for more than ten years, and they have been doing so for more than ten years. As long as they get the land, they can earn money. As long as they get the land, they don’t even need to apply for the license. They can directly pull up a group of sales to sell the house.

Therefore, when we go to the sales office to buy a house, we often ask the salesperson whether your license has come down, and the salesperson replies that it is fast, and it is being done.

You ask again, “don’t you dare to sell in public before the license comes down? Isn’t this illegal?”

The salesperson laughed, “brother, of course we know this is illegal. It’s not time for us to sell the house, but you can check the capital first and confirm your purchase intention. As soon as the license comes down, we’ll inform you immediately! Our house is in great demand, and you can make money if you buy it!”

But the problem is: the construction of such a building has just begun, and you can’t even see the progress of 5% of the project. Can you rest assured when you buy such a house? Will there be any problems? It’s really up to fate.

However, why should we consumers be resigned to fate?

We are people who spend money. We are Party A. when have you seen Party A who pays in the contract so wronged?

In fact, to buy a house under the pre-sale system is to buy a future house. In essence, this is a futures trading. It is indeed reasonable. Now bulk commodities are playing futures trading.

Just like buying a car, it’s the same with buying a popular car. You pay a deposit first, and when the car arrives, you will be notified to pay the rest of the money. If it’s a loan, this material will be sent to you. After the approval, the bank money comes down, and the procedures are completed, you can drive the car away.

Therefore, we often hear 4S store sales say: our store has a car in stock with high configuration. The customer in front didn’t approve the loan, but now it’s sold. You have to wait for 6 months to order the car, don’t you think about it?

Why can’t you buy a house like this?

First hand in an order, and then apply for a bank loan after the house is built and accepted, and then go through the formalities to hand over the house.

From the day you live in the house, you can repay the bank loan.

This is the real reasonable futures trading.

Although buying futures houses is also a futures transaction, the problem is that if the futures transaction defaults, there is no punishment. The consumer is Party A, right? The developer is Party B. why is party a wronged in the end, and Party B has no punishment?

This is the most fundamental and unreasonable part of this transaction.

If, change it, change it into that once there is a problem of premature housing default, the legal representative, chairman, general manager and other senior executives of the real estate enterprise will be directly detained, just like the court treating the old Lai, and you will be locked in and the money will be taken out.

In this way, the problem of house default will be reduced by more than half.

But in practice, we can’t do this. Why? Because the legal affairs of these large companies are very strong, they have long passed on the risk, and even the legal representative of an enterprise is simply irrelevant people, casually looking for an ID card to get it.

The big boss of this real estate enterprise who really makes money, you know the money goes into his pocket, but there is nothing he can do with it.

The enterprise is losing money and is on the verge of bankruptcy, but he can still be listed on the rich list. What do you say?

At that time, whether we rule by law or by man, should we run this big boss?

This is the contradiction

Therefore, in order to resolve the contradiction, it has become an option to cancel the pre-sale system.

Another professional thing, in the field of investment, all the big guys have a consensus: compared with your income, the most important thing is to ensure the safety of your principal. An investment that has a chance to lose your money is not called income, but gambling.

As a result, those experts said that canceling pre-sale was not conducive to home buyers?

I think the disadvantage is the real estate enterprises. If the real estate enterprises are under great pressure, they can complain about their grievances. If the consumers are under great pressure, they have to swallow their anger. If they can’t get the house, they have to pay back the loan every month. It’s very uncomfortable to watch others have a house to live in.

Who knows the feeling of wanting to give up but not daring to give up?

Therefore, we can’t gamble. We can’t wait until the auction house really breaches the contract. Then we can think about how to investigate the responsibility of Party B and punish those real estate enterprises.

Fundamentally, it’s best to nip them in the bud and directly don’t give them a chance to default.

My view is very simple, just one sentence:

I support the abolition of the pre-sale system. At least for now, according to our current real estate market situation, the pre-sale system is no longer necessary.


Why do you say that?

First of all, let’s look at two groups of real estate market data.

Kerry Research Center has been committed to the research of the real estate industry for ten consecutive years. According to their statistics, by the end of April this year, the narrow inventory of commercial housing across the country had reached 608million square meters.

What is narrow inventory? That is, the area of commercial housing that has obtained the pre-sale certificate but has not been sold.

This data is very exaggerated. Due to the sluggish market transactions, the national average decontamination cycle has reached 2 years.

In short, from today on, all real estate construction sites across the country will be shut down without covering a square meter. Then in this case, it will take two years to digest all the inventory.

In addition, according to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, as of the end of April this year, the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide was 557million square meters, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, which is also the highest in the past four years.

What is this concept?

According to the per capita housing construction area of 39.8 square meters, the existing commercial housing area for sale is enough for 14million people to live!

In addition, all regions are still vigorously “selling land”. The generalized inventory of commercial housing in China (the sum of the number of houses that can be sold and the construction volume of land related to housing) has reached 3.84 billion square meters, enough to meet the living needs of 96 million people!

These two sets of data are of great reference value, since there are so many

Why do you need to pre sell the existing house?

Now all over the country are shouting to inventory and protect the property market.

Canceling the pre-sale of commercial housing is the best of both worlds?

It can not only remove inventory, release market vitality, but also ensure that property buyers do not buy uncompleted products, increase everyone’s confidence in buying houses, eliminate contradictions, and stabilize the society… What a good way!

So, cancel it. It takes two years to sell out the national inventory. I don’t know what the meaning of the pre-sale system is.

Finally, I have a little suggestion.

It is suggested that those experts should make suggestions on the real name system in the future. Well, we are all qualified people, and we promise not to spray you to death.

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