Author: north wind source: beifengxuelin (id:beifengxuelin)
In the past two days, the NATO summit is being held, and Russian President Putin has also visited Central Asia to stabilize the back garden.
When the global media are focusing on the “big country strategic game”, the biggest variable occurs in an area of 0.16 square kilometers.
On the afternoon of June 30, the Russian Ministry of defense publicly announced that “in order to release goodwill, the Russian Army decided to withdraw from Snake Island.”
Although it is small, Snake Island has been the focus of the southern front since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Is Russia’s “goodwill withdrawal” a major turning point in the Russian Ukrainian war?
First, why give up the Snake Island of “war”?
Snake Island has a special position in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
First of all, the geographical location of Snake Island is very special.
Odessa is the largest economic city in southern Ukraine and the most important port city in Ukraine. The Snake Island near the coast of Odessa has the function of “cutting off the transportation route of Odessa port”.
In recent months, an important reason for the sharp rise in international grain prices is that western countries accuse Russia of occupying the “Snake Island” and blocking the grain exports of Odessa, Ukraine.
Odessa was “blockaded by sea”, leading to the loss of extremely important “Ukrainian supply” in the international food market, thus exacerbating the global food crisis.
Second, Snake Island has become Ukraine’s “totem of resistance” since the beginning of the war.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began in February, the Russian army took Snake Island with blitz on the first day of military action.
A few days later, Ukrainian President Zelensky released a recording of the “tenacious resistance and heroic death” of the Snake Island garrison.
Russia released photos of some Ukrainian soldiers surrendering after occupying Snake Island.
Since February, the focus has been on “whether the Ukrainian Snake Island garrison was collectively killed”, “has the Snake Island garrison surrendered?” And other issues have become the focus of controversy over the Ukrainian government’s “cohesion of the people” and the Russian army’s “disintegration of the other side’s defensive fighting will”.
In the following March and April conflict between Russia and Ukraine, compared with other routes, the Russian army advanced all the way, and the Ukrainian army “competed repeatedly” with the Russian army in Snake Island, which became an important example for the Ukrainian government and Zelensky himself to “brush the fruits of the war” and encourage the whole people to resist to the end.
Third, the area of Snake Island is too small, isolated and difficult to defend.
The Russian army has a crushing advantage over the Ukrainian army. Why does it fall into repeated competition with the Ukrainian army in the “Snake Island”?
The Russian navy is not rich enough. The flagship of the Black Sea fleet, the Moscow, sank around Snake Island. Why should it retreat after paying such a heavy loss?
Because the area of Snake Island is too small, only 0.17 square kilometers, which is equivalent to a site with a length and width of only 400 meters, which is not much larger than a small factory in China or a large building in a third and fourth tier city.
Such a small area does not have a “springboard for the assembly of large forces before landing”.
At the same time, Snake Island is too close to Odessa, the Ukrainian mainland. Ukraine can carry out “coverage attack” on Snake Island by using domestic short-range missiles.
Therefore, in the past few months, although the Russian army has resisted Ukraine’s repeated competition, it still maintains the Snake Island under the control of the Russian army, but the “cost” is indeed far greater than the gain.
The Russian army must deploy a large number of air defense weapons on Snake Island, and also need to arrange air force to guard the surrounding airspace. Naval vessels such as the Moscow will also patrol the surrounding areas.
Although the Russian army has finally defended the “Snake Island” in the past few months, which is of great symbolic significance, its military value is constantly depreciating.
Moreover, in the future, as more military resources are invested, they will eventually be recaptured by the Ukrainian army because of the characteristics of “easy to attack and difficult to defend”, so the symbolic significance of “morale recovery” in Ukraine is even greater.
Second, abandon the “international significance” of Snake Island!
Since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia’s counterattack in the international energy market and economic and financial aspects has always shocked the West more than the military battlefield.
With the long-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it will have a more far-reaching impact on international energy and food prices.
While maintaining a strong attitude towards the United States and Europe, Russia basically maintains a soft attitude towards the vast number of Asian and African countries, except for a few American lackeys.
Through the vote of the bill on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the United Nations, it can be found that many Asian, African and Latin American countries cast “neutral votes”.
Expressing neutrality in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is equivalent to direct confrontation between Russia and the United States. These countries remain relatively neutral.
A major feature of these countries is that “a large proportion of grain depends on imports”.
Now, with the long-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sharp rise in international food prices, the next days for these countries will be very difficult.
The United States is not short of food, and it is likely to use food as a lever to create a street movement, “Color Revolution” in anti American countries.
Therefore, for anti American countries or neutral countries to avoid the “food crisis”, it is necessary to open up Ukraine’s food supply and reduce international food prices.
On the other hand, over the past period of time, international food prices have soared, food crises and humanitarian disasters have occurred in many countries, and the United Nations agencies have put the blame on Russia.
Internationally, the conclusion that “Russia occupies the Snake Island and blocks Ukraine’s grain exports” has caused the international food crisis.
Now Russia “abruptly withdrew its hand” and made way for Ukraine’s grain export channel. Next, if Ukraine cannot resume grain exports soon, the international food crisis and humanitarian disaster can only be hit on Ukraine, which has “port freedom”.
Third, has the Russian Ukrainian war ushered in a turning point?
The influence of abandoning Snake Island on the “international food market” and Russia’s “international resistance” is the “political factor” for the Russian army to abandon Snake Island.
In addition to political factors, there are also “military factors” for the Russian army to abandon Snake Island.
Some netizens said that Russia’s abandonment of the Snake Island marked the abandonment of Odessa, and even the “defensive” of all the eastern and southern battlefields in the future.
Therefore, some people regard the initiative of the Russian army to abandon the Snake Island as a sign of the “change of attack and defense” between the Russian and Ukrainian armies since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Soldiers, a national event, of course, will not be such a trifle!
Before today’s “goodwill withdrawal of Russian troops from Snake Island”, the Russian army had conducted a “goodwill withdrawal”.
That is, at the end of March, the Russian army withdrew the troops besieged Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and quickly put them into the eastern Donbas battlefield after repair.
At the beginning of the military conflict in February, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began, the Russian army carried out a large siege, a large interlude of tactics, and the eastern, southern, and Northern lines went together.
In March, it was difficult for several fronts to achieve decisive victory after achieving partial results.
After the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kiev front in the north at the end of March, the Donetsk battlefield in the East and the Mariupol battlefield in the South began to make breakthroughs.
It is precisely because the Russian army gave up the “multi-point flowering”, and now in the eastern Donbas battlefield, it can obtain a “solid and solid” advantage.
At the beginning of the military conflict in February, Russian troops quickly occupied Snake Island, showing a determined attitude towards Odessa, an important economic city in Ukraine.
At that time, the “ambition” did not mean that it could be won quickly. Today’s “active retreat” is not a “sign of abandoning Odessa”.
Relying only on the 0.17 square kilometers of “Snake Island” and the full firepower coverage of Odessa, an isolated island has no meaning to win Odessa.
On the contrary, the withdrawal of troops from Snake Island marks that the “military investment” of Russian troops around Snake Island can be withdrawn.
Take back your fists in order to fight harder!
With the withdrawal of troops from Kiev, the victory of the current Donbas war was achieved.
After the withdrawal of troops from Snake Island, the Russian military will not stop cutting Odessa and the interior of Ukraine from the land channel.
Odessa is one of the targets in the “phase III military goals” announced by Russia not long ago. I believe that at least at this stage, Russia and Putin will not change the minimum goal of turning Ukraine into a “landlocked neutral country”, whether it is the resistance force of the Ukrainian army or the “solidarity without military assistance” attitude of the United States and NATO.
After the long-term war between Russia and Ukraine, the competition between Russia and NATO has also entered the stage of needle to needle.
The big country game is like the “scramble for Snake Island”. The overwhelming force does not mean that it is determined to win. Today’s friendly withdrawal is not a complete abandonment.
The withdrawal of troops from Snake Island is not a sign of the change of attack and defense in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but a sign that the Russian army withdraws its fist and the horn blows in the decisive battle of Donbas!