Original: Shenzhen ningnanshan source: ningnanshan
Whether it is war or epidemic, it is very important to have the ability to quickly solve problems.
The Russian Ukrainian war started on February 24. It has been nearly four months now, and the prospect of the war is not clear.
The last time Russia officially announced the number of Russian military casualties was on March 25. At that time, it was announced that 1351 people were killed and 3825 were injured, that is, more than 5000 people were injured in the first month of the war. Now more than two months have passed, and this number must have increased a lot.
Of course, if you look at the statistics of obituaries, cemeteries and social media by the BBC reporter in Russia, you think that by the end of May, the confirmed number of Russian troops had exceeded 3000, which is only a figure with evidence, while the estimated number of Russian troops killed by Ukraine, NATO and the United States is even higher.
Of course, it is logically estimated that 5000 people were killed or injured in the first month of the war. Now that it is almost five months, it should be relatively certain that the total number of Russian casualties has exceeded 10000.
It should be noted that this is only the casualties of the Russian army, not including the casualties of the army in Donbas. It can be seen that the intensity of the war is still very high.
In the non western regions of the world, the United States believes that the two biggest rivals are China and Russia. Now they are weakening Russia in the form of proxy war, so there is a risk of using the same method to deal with China.
As I wrote in my previous article, every time Russia goes to war, the international oil price is high. Because Russia’s economy is too dependent on oil and gas resources, high oil and gas resource prices are very important to Russia.
The sanctions imposed by western countries on Russia have undoubtedly caused great losses to the Russian economy, especially in the non oil and gas fields. Russia’s export surplus increased significantly in the first four months of this year,
One reason is that the oil price is at a high level, and the other is that Russia’s imports have dropped significantly. In other words, Russia’s non oil and gas economy has suffered a heavy blow under the sanctions.
Take China’s export data to Russia this year as an example,
In January, China’s exports to Russia reached 7.38 billion US dollars, up from 4.758 billion US dollars in January last year, a year-on-year increase of 55.1%;
In February, China’s exports to Russia reached US $5.237 billion, up from US $4.163 billion in February last year, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%;
In March, China’s export to Russia was US $3.825 billion, compared with us $4.162 billion in March last year, a year-on-year decrease of 8%;
In April, China’s export to Russia was US $3.802 billion, compared with us $5.128 billion in April last year, a year-on-year decrease of 25.86%.
Of course, due to the high base of China’s exports to Russia in January and February, China’s overall exports to Russia increased by 11.3% from January to April.
Why does China’s export to Russia also drop significantly? Because Western sanctions are under the jurisdiction of the long arm, some Chinese enterprises cannot violate the regulations. In addition, part of China’s export to Russia comes from foreign enterprises in China.
China and Germany are the two largest import source countries of Russia. Not only China, but also Germany’s exports to Russia have also decreased significantly. In March, the cliff like chain decline was 60%, and in April, it was 10% lower than that in March.
Exports from Germany to Russia dropped 10% in April after plummeting 60% in March, the statistics office said.
A country imports a variety of products, one for direct consumption and the other for reproduction. If imports fall sharply in a short time, it will cause a rapid decline in the supply of domestic consumer goods and raw materials and equipment for industrial production, which may lead to inflation and a decline in industrial output.
High intensity wars will also bring military expenditure. This year, Russia’s military expenditure will certainly reach a new high, because war costs money. In fact, let alone war, military exercises in various countries will also cost a lot of money,
What losses will war bring?
All kinds of military equipment destroyed in the war, including aircraft, tanks, armored vehicles and warships;
Even if all kinds of military equipment are not destroyed, their service life will be consumed due to their continuous use in war, such as the repair of faulty equipment;
Large scale military operations need to consume a lot of fuel, especially the fuel used by aircraft is very expensive;
The extensive use and consumption of various munitions, especially missiles, in war;
The pensions to be paid for the death of personnel caused by the war, and the medical and nursing labor costs to be paid for the injury of personnel;
Expenditures for humanitarian relief in the occupied areas, etc.
According to Reuters, preliminary data released by the Russian Ministry of Finance on May 18 showed that Russia’s defense spending increased by nearly 40% in the first four months of this year when Moscow launched a large-scale military operation against Ukraine for nearly three months.
It is reported that from January to April this year, Russia’s defense expenditure was 1.7 trillion rubles (about US $27.4 billion), almost half of the annual budget figure of 2022 (3.5 trillion rubles).
At first, the Russian Ministry of Finance predicted that the budget surplus in 2022 would reach 1% of Russia’s GDP, that is, 1.3 trillion rubles, but now it is expected that there will be a deficit of at least 1.6 trillion rubles. In April, Russia’s military expenditure reached 628billion rubles (about US $10.1 billion), an increase of 128% over April 2021, thus turning the monthly state budget into a deficit for the first time this year.
In fact, this figure is quite a lot. It is equivalent to that Russia spent about $340million a day in military spending in April, about half of which was increased due to the war. That’s a lot. It’s almost 1billion yuan a day.
In other words, Russia’s military budget this year was originally $50 billion or $60 billion, but it will spend tens of billions more because of the war. It is likely that this year’s military spending will exceed $100billion because of the war.
Of course, for Russia,
First, in many cases, war should not only consider the economy, but also serve the political and even long-term strategic needs,
Secondly, Russia can be self-sufficient in grain and energy by virtue of its rich natural resource exports, as well as a large number of basic daily industrial products imported from China, Southeast Asia, India and other countries,
Therefore, Russia’s survival is not a problem, but it is difficult to develop, because development requires capital, industry and technology, which Russia lacks.
The West accounts for more than 50% of the global shares in these three aspects, especially in the medium and high-end fields.
This is also what I have always said about the “Russian dilemma”, that is, its own population size is small, and its economic size is small. It is difficult to solve the development problem if it confronts with the West. However, without confrontation, the western countries will not accept you at all psychologically. Russia’s own self-esteem is also unwilling to be the younger brother of the United States.
Close cooperation with China in economy, science and technology, and importing technology, capital and industries from China that cannot be obtained from the West may be the only way out for Russia in the future. At least the Chinese treat Russia equally.
When more than 100000 Russian youths were fighting in Ukraine, Chinese youths were concerned about this year’s employment,
In 2022, there were 10.76 million college graduates in China, the highest number in history. It should be noted that the people who graduated in 2022 corresponded to those who were born around 1998-2000. At that time, about 18million college graduates were born every year on average. In other words, college graduates accounted for about 60% of the same age group, which is the level of developed countries.
As a developing country, to tell the truth, this proportion has been a little ahead, that is, the development speed of academic education in China has been ahead of the development level, so it will make people feel that college graduates are more and more eager to find jobs.
No matter how high the development level and progress of a society are, there are always low, medium and high-end jobs. In the past, people had a low level of education, so they were working in the middle and low-end jobs. Decades ago, they wanted to enter a factory in Guangdong, and the competition was still fierce. Decades ago, the factory asked that women workers under the age of 25 should be given priority, and those who were good-looking around the age of 20 would be given priority. Because at that time, there were hundreds of yuan a month after entering the factory, which was enough to earn a year’s income from farming in my hometown.
Now that our education level has been improved, we are in the middle and high-end jobs. We all want to be civil servants, enter public institutions, go to Internet companies, go to state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and new energy automobile industries. It is much easier to find low-end jobs, such as entering factories, delivering takeout, running Didi, delivering express, and opening Didi. It is not difficult to find these jobs.
From the low-end volume in the past to the medium and high-end volume now, it is also a social progress.
The proportion of higher education at the level of developed countries has led to fierce competition for middle – and high-end jobs. In addition, the impact of the epidemic this year, the downturn of Internet enterprises and other factors are intertwined, making it more difficult for college graduates to obtain employment this year.
Fortunately, the epidemic in Shanghai, which has affected the whole country, has gradually subsided, and the high-tech industry and exports are still there. In May, the monthly export surplus was close to US $80billion.
In RMB,
In May, China’s exports reached 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.3%; Imports reached 1.47 trillion yuan, up 2.8 percent; The trade surplus was 502.89 billion yuan, an increase of 79.1 percent.
In USD,
In May, China’s exports reached 308.25 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.9%; Imports totaled 229.49 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.1%; The trade surplus was US $78.76 billion, an increase of 82.3%.
However, even so, the national economy has indeed been greatly affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, especially the new energy vehicle industry. During the epidemic period in Shanghai, the month on month sales volume basically fell sharply. Fortunately, compared with the same period last year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased rapidly from January to may, and it is expected to maintain a rapid growth throughout the year.
The epidemic has also affected the semiconductor industry more or less, but it is not as big as new energy vehicles, which also shows that Shanghai is still higher in the global new energy vehicle industry chain than it is in the global semiconductor industry chain,
It also shows that the upstream localization of China’s new energy vehicles is indeed far better than the upstream localization of the semiconductor industry chain.
Another lesson we can draw from the Shanghai epidemic is that since we have set the path of dynamic zeroing, all parts of the country should resolutely implement it and never waver ideologically. At the beginning of this year, Shenzhen also encountered signs of the spread of the epidemic. It was immediately sealed and controlled and solved in a week.
It is better to solve problems in one week than in one month, and even better than two months.
Whether it is the war in Russia or China’s fight against the epidemic, they all have one thing in common, that is, the sooner the problem is solved, the sooner the problem is ended, the better. In other words, the country and its people have to have the ability to solve the problem quickly.
We really don’t know how the Russo Ukrainian war will end, but from the perspective of China, this kind of war lasting for several months and tens of thousands of casualties must be avoided in the future.
The strong military assistance from western countries to Ukraine has brought great trouble to Russia,
A large part of the casualties of the Russian army came indirectly from the West. In fact, without Western assistance, it is a question whether Ukraine can support Russia for nearly four months as it is now. In short, the west is weakening Russia by using its own economic and military industrial capabilities, which not only makes the Russian army pay more casualties, but also makes Russia’s military expenditure soar. At the same time, the non oil and gas economy is severely damaged through sanctions.
However, such an outcome has something to do with the gradual backwardness of Russia’s own economic and military capacity-building,
This makes us realize the importance of strengthening the construction of our own military forces. If the Russian army is strong enough to end the battle quickly, it will obviously be much better for Russia’s national interests. In other words, if Russia can end the war within one month of the start of the war, it can save the lives of thousands or even tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, and also save huge military expenditure.
The Shangri La conference held in Singapore from June 10 to 12,
The Chinese defense minister said that “if anyone dares to split Taiwan, we will certainly do whatever it takes to fight a war. No one should underestimate the determination and strong ability of the Chinese army.” In fact, this sentence is mainly for Americans.
In the past, the ballast of our discussions on China US relations was China US economic and trade relations,
However, in recent years, more and more reality has taught us that in addition to economic and trade relations, the ballast of China US relations also includes the military strength of the Chinese people’s Liberation Army,
It can even be said that the real core of the bottom ballast is China’s military power, and the second ballast is the economic and trade relationship.
No matter how the United States will eventually interfere with our territory in the South China Sea and Taiwan’s reunification, as long as our military strength is strong enough, the situation will become favorable to us and the situation will be much easier to break.
However hard you try to support Taiwan’s military and try to replicate a proxy war that weakens China in East Asia, if the PLA can take Taiwan down in a week or even a few days, the problem will be solved.
If the duration of the war is less than one day, China will be able to pay less military expenditure of hundreds of millions or even billions of yuan, and the casualties of soldiers and civilians will be less. At the same time, it will reduce the impact on China’s economic industrial chain and logistics.
Not only to reduce losses during the war,
As long as our military strength is strong enough, our opponents will face internal disagreement when making various decisions, which may make it difficult to make decisions and make up their minds, so as to effectively deter them.
The Ukrainian battlefield is a typical example. Although Russia’s conventional military strength has declined, it is still a world-class nuclear power, and it has also clearly issued a warning that Russia has nuclear weapons, which has forced the United States and Western countries to control the intensity of the conflict. Zelensky has called for the west to establish a no fly zone in Ukraine many times, but the United States and Western countries dare not, The fear of direct confrontation with Russia led to the escalation of the conflict out of control.
Therefore, it is very important for us to use our Kung Fu in peacetime and use our funds and energy for the construction of military forces in peacetime. Why Chinese military fans spontaneously pay attention to the progress of advanced weapons such as No. 003 electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, shipborne fourth generation aircraft and hypersonic missiles is not just because we want to win,
Moreover, in terms of economy and personal security, these advanced weapons can help us quickly end the war and bring huge benefits.
From the official level, after the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and the embassy incident in 1999, China has realized the importance of strengthening the construction of military forces. In 1999, China’s military expenditure was 107.6 billion yuan, and in 2010 it became 517.6 billion yuan.
The following figure is from Netease’s statistics on defense funds.
It is precisely because of the huge increase in military spending that the explosion of military equipment in China after entering the 21st century has brought us huge benefits today, although such benefits are largely invisible.
But consider the daily expenses borne by ordinary families in Europe due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. In March this year, the consumer price index (CPI) of Germany reached 7.3%, far exceeding the 6.3% previously predicted by experts, which is close to the price growth level during the Iran Iraq war in the 1980s. The main reason why the price of goods reached a 40 year high is the rapid rise in energy and food prices. In March, energy prices in Germany rose 39.5% year-on-year, and food prices rose 6.2% year-on-year.
Consider the domestic inflation in Russia. According to the data released by the Russian Federal Bureau of statistics on May 25, the Russian annualized inflation rate reached 17.8% in April, the highest level since January 2002. Putin said that it is expected to be within 15% for the whole year, but this is still a large number. More than 100000 Russian youth may face death on the battlefield,
Think again of the cities in which a large number of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers have lost their houses, property and lives due to the war.
We know how important it is to have a strong military force. It can not only protect us from a peaceful and stable environment in peacetime, but also enable us to quickly eliminate the enemy and end the war after the outbreak of war.
Finally, it is hoped that our 003 aircraft carrier, the fourth generation aircraft on board, the fixed wing early warning aircraft on board, and the new generation of bombers will be completed as soon as possible and become operational.