Author: Dragon tooth source: a mountain of dragon tooth (id:longyadeyizuoshan)
South Korean President Yoon sik Yueh will leave for Spain on the 27th to attend the NATO summit in Madrid from the 29th to the 30th. This will be the first time that the president of the ROK will attend the NATO summit. The ROK, together with Japan, Australia and New Zealand, will be invited to participate as NATO partners in the Asia Pacific region.
The United States’ desire to build a “small NATO in the Asia Pacific” is not a matter of two days. It is a strategy begun in the Obama era. Of course, there are two different choices: first, to re-establish a common defense organization in the Asia Pacific region;
Second, the NATO system should be adopted directly. The two choices look different. In fact, they are just different in quantity, not in quality. That is, whether the number of countries participating in collective defense is limited to the Asia Pacific and even East Asia, or whether it is linked to Europe.
With Europe, there is a great momentum, but there are many more uncertain factors. For example, European countries are likely to oppose participating in the “collective defense” of Japan and South Korea. Just as Turkey has clearly stood up against Finland and Sweden joining NATO this time, many people have mixed words and uncertainties have increased.
What about a separate Asia Pacific version of NATO? It seems more realistic, but it is also difficult.
The first is Japan’s status as a defeated country in World War II.
Unlike Germany, Germany’s status as a member of NATO is contingent. In 1955, it joined NATO in the form of “Federal Germany”. At this time, a “democratic Germany” was actually controlled by the Soviet Union, and even joined the Warsaw pact before the Federal Germany joined NATO. Later, after the end of the cold war, the whole democratic Germany was incorporated into the Federal Republic of Germany, and the unified Germany automatically continued its status as a member of NATO, forming today’s situation.
So Japan’s desire to join a collective defense organization as a defeated country in World War II does not have this chance, nor does it have this historical opportunity. It does not make sense under the current international law.
This picture has not become a reality. Japan has not split into several countries. Of course, there is no opportunity to join any multilateral collective defense organization. There has been no change in its status as a defeated country in the Second World War. Any act to break through this status is directly related to the legitimacy of the United Nations.
Before the Charter of the United Nations became used toilet paper, Japan could not join any collective defense organization. Of course, the Charter of the United Nations is indeed becoming used toilet paper, but at least for now, it has not been completely thrown into the toilet. The formal admission of Japan to any collective defense organization means that the Charter of the United Nations is officially thrown into the toilet and the flush button is pressed. At present, it seems that the United States has not the courage to do so for the time being.
Once the United Nations system is completely destroyed, a collective defense agreement cannot protect Japan. This is the biggest contradiction: whether to sign or not.
Many people think that the Charter of the United Nations binds the hands and feet of the United States. In fact, on the contrary, judging from the current comparison of military and economic strength, it binds the hands and feet of China. China, which has an absolute military advantage within the second island chain, can frankly say that the whole world together is giving nothing. Once the United Nations system based on the Potsdam Proclamation is destroyed, there is no difference in whether there is a so-called “collective” defense mechanism. Even if the United States and Japan have indeed completed the re militarization of Japan at an impossible speed, there is no difference. Even if you go to the United States in person, there will be no difference.
This is the forecast chart of China’s navy strength by 2025, especially the number of amphibious attack ships and dock landing ships. The statistics in this chart are not complete. 072 landing ship has not been counted yet, but it is intuitive.
In fact, our navy currently has 107 landing ships and more than 160 landing ships, with a total tonnage of more than 420000 tons. The landing ships include 2 075 amphibious assault ships, 7 071 dock landing ships, 30 072 landing ships and subsequent improvements, 12 073 medium landing ships, 24 074 small landing ships and 30 079 small landing ships.
Not counting 074 and 079 which are difficult to reach Japan, only for the class 075, 071, 072 and 073 landing (amphibious) ships, the one-time delivery strength is about 8-12 heavy mechanized synthetic brigades.
What is this concept?
You can’t carry the entire US Army to Japan.
Military fans are all big pig hooves. When they see 003, they forget 075. They are all scum men who want to change their minds. In fact, the fastest growth of the Chinese navy is not in the strength of aircraft carriers and naval aviation, but in the capability of landing operations. Now, a wave of landing can transport the entire Marine Corps, and can empty many ships for the big brother of the army. In addition, it is still vigorously developing the capability of amphibious operations. What do you mean? That is, all Chinese troops called the “Marine Corps” are loaded onto ships to land, and the navy is still dissatisfied with the ships, so they can take them to the army.
In a few years, when 076 is officially launched into service, and more 075 are commissioned, and 071 and 072 become army like dumplings, the Chinese army will be officially renamed “Army Marine Corps”. It is not a dream to pull all the main combat forces to the island.
In this situation, the Charter of the United Nations is actually Japan’s amulet and the basis for Japan to maintain its legal independence. Japanese politicians who have a little military common sense and basic brain will not be unaware of this. The United States is very eager to let him take the lead and launch the first shot to flush the Charter of the United Nations into the sewer:
The question is, does he dare? Without the Charter of the United Nations, what does he rely on to maintain his independence? Do you rely on civil servants’ self defense forces or kamikaze?
The second is the contradiction between Japan and South Korea.
The contradiction between Japan and South Korea is not only a problem of historical grievances and the foundation of the ROK, but also a real economic contradiction. Under the leadership of the United States, the industrial chains of South Korea and Japan are highly overlapped because they meet the demand of the supply chain. A single South Korea or a single Japan cannot meet the global demand, so they have to do so. As a result, it was squeezed by China and the United States, and the entire industrial chain of Japan and South Korea had to be rolled in the limited market space, resulting in a variety of crooked and harmful moves, and numerous contradictions between the two countries.
When a dog grabs a bone, it’s like this. You can’t help it.
Although there is a view rarely seen in the media, I think it is very reasonable: the legal rationality of North Korea is much higher than that of South Korea, so even if North Korea is too poor, it can still maintain national order. From the perspective of the common people on the Korean Peninsula, the existence of Korea represents the independence of the Korean nation and is the origin of the self-confidence and pride of the entire Korean nation; On the one hand, South Korea is not a right country, which is a remnant of Japanese colonization. On the other hand, it is now looking up to the American nose. In my heart, I feel ashamed.
This is the collective consciousness of the Korean nation determined by the history of the Korean Peninsula. It is a huge hidden danger in South Korea. Now, when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is in bad luck, it is temporarily covered up by economic development. Once the situation changes, North Korea’s legitimacy will crush South Korea in an all-round way.
What kind of “collective defense” is it stupid to go to Japan, a historical enemy, at this time? It is imminent for the naked eye to see a sharp economic downturn. If he still wants to do so, Cheng Li is not far away.
South Korean presidents generally have a bad ending, not without a reason.
I think yinxiyue and lichengwan look very similar. I’m sure they really want to follow the old path.
In reality, the economic contradictions between Japan and South Korea are irreconcilable, a life and death situation. They are bitter rivals in the fields of electronic products and automobiles, and there is basically no possibility of cooperation. What these two markets suffer is the squeeze of their own father and wild father, which belongs to “the owner and the dog rob the bone”. How can the dog jump up and resist? Only when a dog bites a dog can he live like this. When the master finishes eating the meat and the rest of the bones, the two dogs can roll them inside.
Yin Xiyue doesn’t have the ability to connect with heaven. No matter what he thinks in his heart, the reality is like this, and he has no ability to change the reality. Whether it is historical grievances or economic realities, he has no way to achieve the “collective defense” of Japan and South Korea.
Whether the Asia Pacific version of “small NATO” or NATO’s “eastward” expansion into the Pacific is not a realistic international political issue, but rather a kind of momentum and arch fire, which is a bluff of the United States. The basis for its realization is that the two member states of South Korea and Japan have completely lost their foundation of statehood.
In other words, to “collective defense”, you have to die first.
The leaders of Japan and South Korea also know this in their hearts. It is a bit of an exaggeration to say that they are “pretending to be insincere”. At least, it is like “I will just rub my head and refuse to go in”.
The Asia Pacific countries, two of the most critical and vital countries in the summit: South Korea and Japan, are precisely the most difficult and thorny problems to solve. Other countries, such as Australia and New Zealand, have come to find a venue.
As an Anglo Saxon nation-state, it is also a matter of course for him to come here to make a fuss. It is strange that he will not come. He wants to join NATO, but what’s the point? China is not going to land in Australia or New Zealand. As a semi independent country of the same nationality, you can see it as a state of the United States, and the difference is not big. If the United States fails, it will not be able to protect it. If the United States does not fail, it does not need to defend anyone. It is one thing to sign that agreement.
So the key point of contradiction lies in Japan and South Korea
Whether NATO can sign, whether it dares to sign, and what the consequences of signing are the key to whether NATO can expand “eastward” to the Pacific Ocean, and also the focus we need to pay attention to.
Before the bilateral and domestic contradictions between Japan and South Korea are “properly” resolved, the two countries lack the courage and realistic foundation to join NATO; Even if it has been “properly” resolved, it still depends on the game between European countries, China and Russia. If a country in Europe disagrees, it will be in vain.
Therefore, the “sunk cost” for Japan and South Korea to join NATO is too high. On the one hand, it is extremely difficult to deal with it. On the other hand, even if it is done, it is very likely to fail.
The NATO summit, attended by the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, is just a “build momentum” of the United States. The purpose is to “arch fire” in East Asia. The symbolic significance is far greater than the practical significance.
What do you think? Eat melon seeds. It’s summer. It’s OK to eat watermelon.
The upper limit for Japan and South Korea to kill is 075 amphibious assault ship
Within the operational radius of.
And the upper limit of American arch fire,
stay
The eagle strike 21 anti-ship ballistic missile is out of range.
END
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