Original: Yin Guoming source wechat official account: Mingren Mingcha has been authorized to reprint
1? Shinzo Abe’s legacy to Japan
Abe left, but preparations for Japan’s constitutional amendment, which Abe had been vigorously promoting but had not yet completed, continued.
The 26th Senate election of the Japanese parliament was held on the 10th, and the results were announced on the 11th. The Liberal Democratic Party won a big victory, and the constitutional amendment forces led by the Liberal Democratic Party continued to maintain a more than two-thirds majority in the Senate.
This is another key step towards the goal of the constitutional amendment forces, following the election of the house of Representatives last October, in which the Japanese Constitutional Amendment forces obtained a two-thirds majority of the house of Representatives.
According to the procedure of amending the Constitution in Japan, the process of amending the Constitution can be completed after a two-thirds majority of the Senate and house of Representatives is passed, and then more than half of the people agree in a referendum.
Japan’s right-wing forces have worked hard for more than 70 years to achieve the goal of constitutional amendment.
Shinzo Abe has made “great contributions” to this. The completion of the constitutional amendment is Abe’s inheritance of the will of his grandfather kishinsuke. He left, but the constitutional amendment work continues, and it is likely to accelerate. Japan continues to have no Abe line in politics.
As the Japanese prime minister who has been in office for the longest time, Abe’s economic policy has been bankrupt, but his successor is still inheriting Abe’s economic policy without Abe.
One of the most important reasons for those who say that abenomics saved Japan’s economy is actually how much the market value of Japan’s stock market increased during Abe’s tenure. In fact, it is true that abenomics has put the Japanese economy on a dead end by drinking poison to quench thirst.
So after Abe’s accidental death, the Japanese people were not so sad about him as some “Jingri”.
In 2001, Junichiro Koizumi came to power and implemented Neo liberal policies such as relaxation of restrictions and structural reform, which bred a new cycle of rich and poor that “the rich will remain rich and the poor will remain poor”. Abenomics has further facilitated the accumulation of wealth by large enterprises and the wealthy. As of March 2020, the internal cash retention of Japanese large enterprises has reached 470.84 trillion yen (about 26 trillion yuan). Compared with the expansion of the pockets of large enterprises, the average wage of Japanese wage earners was 261.547 million yen in November 2012 and 261.554 million yen by June 2020, with little increase. Abenomics has increased the gap between the rich and the poor in Japan. Abenomics’ policies such as over issuing money have obviously sacrificed the interests of ordinary people. So this time Abe died unexpectedly, many Japanese people hold this attitude:
After taking office, the current Japanese Prime Minister hurriedly put forward a “new capitalism” based on the cycle of growth and distribution, paid more attention to distribution, and solved the problem of widening the gap between the rich and the poor in Japan. From the beginning of taking office, he tried to cut with Abe’s economic policy. It stated that it was necessary to raise the tax level for the high-income class in order to balance the gap between the rich and the poor, but it was simply impossible to implement it. The words “financial income tax” had been deleted from the Liberal Democratic Party convention.
Abe’s successor has been inseparable from abenomics. The space for Japan’s economic adjustment of internal contradictions has been very narrow, and the successor has not had much to do to solve the three major economic problems left by Abe: the heavy reliance on additional currency issuance, the scale of government debt had to continue to expand, and the competitiveness of Japan’s manufacturing industry continued to decline.
These three issues are the key to determine whether Japan has a future. If these three issues are not solved well, Japan will die.
Of course, the third problem mentioned above was not created by Abe, but accumulated step by step from the “Plaza Agreement” under the pressure of the United States and in combination with Japan’s own mistakes. Since Abe took office, in the face of Japan’s lost two decades, he has solved the third problem and weak domestic consumption through additional currency issuance and substantial government borrowing, but the third problem has not been solved. On the contrary, the first and second problems also arise.
These three problems will haunt the Japanese economy until it suffocates.
In order to beautify Abe, the Chinese Internet is basically nonsense when it says that Abe wholeheartedly seeks the welfare of the Japanese people. Abenomics kicked Japan into the abyss with one foot, and it is very difficult to climb out.
The current Japanese Prime Minister is also helpless in the face of these three problems. Although he wants to cut with Abe in terms of economic policy, Abe’s economic heritage is too heavy, and it is not easy to cut. Japan is still implementing Abe’s monetary easing policy, and even if the yen is short, it has not stopped. It’s not that I don’t want to stop, but that I can’t stop. The debt scale of Japan has reached 266% of GDP, more than twice that of the United States, but the debt scale cannot stop the pace of continuous expansion. The Japanese government receives 60 trillion yen a year, but its expenditure is as high as 110 trillion yen. Where can we solve the difference in the middle? Only by issuing additional Japanese government bonds. Who can digest such a large national debt? Only the Bank of Japan can come forward. Where does the Bank of Japan’s money come from? Only by turning on the money printer.
This is the “magic” of abenomics, just like drugs. Although it’s cool when you first smoke, it’s not so easy to find problems and want to quit.
Now, Japan has to continue to issue government bonds, and the Bank of Japan continues to issue more national currency to buy Japanese government bonds, taking the Abe economic route without Abe. When can it stop? There is no hope yet.
Japan itself knows that the debt scale is so large and continues to increase. Sooner or later, something big will happen. Japan’s currency overload and government debt are similar to Mount Fuji. Although we don’t know when it will erupt, it is an inevitable event.
Therefore, Japanese politicians are very anxious. Now the anxiety is not as simple as worrying about losing the leading position in Asia. Now Japan’s anxiety is about survival.
2? The deep-seated causes of Japan’s economic difficulties
The Japanese government needs to borrow so much every year to maintain balance of payments. This in itself shows that Japan has a serious financial crisis. If the modern central bank had not issued more money, Japan would have had a big problem. Historically, countries that broke out in financial crisis even experienced the hardships of the overthrow of dynasties, such as the Ming Dynasty. Japan now depends on the money printing machine to maintain the basic operation of a developed country. On March 11, 2011, the Fukushima earthquake in Japan also led to the Fukushima nuclear leak, and the Japanese government’s reconstruction work was slow. Ten years have passed, and many Fukushima victims have not been resettled and become homeless. Let’s have special confidence in the Japanese government and write after the earthquake, “one year later, the whole world will be surprised by the speed and courage of Japan’s reconstruction! This is proof!” Wang Ju Zhi’an’s face was beaten and swollen into a pig’s head. The most important reason for the slow reconstruction work is that the Japanese government, which is in financial crisis, cannot afford so much money.
Why can’t the Japanese government achieve fiscal balance? There are two main reasons for this: first, Japan’s tax care policy for the rich class who control wealth. Second, Japan’s local manufacturing industry has been unable to create enough wealth surplus to maintain a high welfare society.
The first reason is that this is a common problem of all capitalist countries. Because if the tax on private capital is high, they will consider transferring to places with lower taxes. Capital has successfully engaged in tax competition between different countries, keeping the tax level at a very low level.
The second reason is actually a problem that all capitalist countries have to face. In fact, it is another aspect of the first problem. With the development of the country, the wages and welfare benefits of employees rise, affecting the cost advantage, so we first transfer the low-end industries to the outside, and then transfer to the middle-end industries, and retain some high-end industries, which can absorb high wages and welfare benefits, maintain high profits, and maintain a decent high welfare life in developed countries. But in doing so, there is a problem, that is, can the competitiveness and control of high-end industries be maintained all the time.
Japan can’t maintain it. From home appliances, electronics, communications, shipbuilding, Japan has fewer and fewer advantageous industries, and its ability to create social surplus is becoming weaker and weaker. At present, the automobile manufacturing industry, the largest competitive industry, is facing the alternative competition of new energy vehicles. Japan’s existing advantageous industries cannot guarantee that Japan will continue to maintain the welfare level of a high-income country. According to the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), the average wage in Japan was $38514 in 2020. Compared with 30 years ago, the average wage in Japan increased by 4.4%, with little growth. Considering price factors, the real income and welfare level of ordinary Japanese has been declining.
Moreover, it is the Japanese government that can barely maintain the apparent welfare without a sharp decline by continuously increasing debt. But who will bear the increased debt in the end?
Japan’s economy is so hopeless.
3? The outlet that Japanese politicians seek for Japan is a dead end and no return.
During his term of office, Shinzo Abe was able to protect the face of the Japanese economy in the short term by “beating the chicken”, but the inside has been constantly hollowed out, just like a heavy smoker.
Is there any good way for Japan to get out of the current vicious circle? Yes, and unique. We can only ask Marx for advice and end capitalism. Otherwise, the incurable disease of capitalism in Japan will not be cured within the scope of capitalism.
The Japanese capital chaebol and political gate valve, of course, can’t change their own lives, so they can only rely on continuous infusion to hang this life while looking for other ways.
If you don’t want to end capitalism, what else can you do? Japanese politicians think there is another way: War.
This is the way that capitalist countries came up with when they encountered insoluble internal crises in history. This is how World War I and World War II came about. Why did Lenin, the great teacher, say that “imperialism is war”? I really saw through the crux of capitalism, and I saw it from the beginning.
This brings us back to the question of why Japan desperately revised the peace constitution and completely lifted the legal shackles of militarism. This is not only the obsession of Japanese right-wing politicians about the “highlight moment” of history, but also the prescription given to Japan by Japanese politicians who feel the aggravation of the internal crisis and refuse to touch the interests of capital. If you can’t solve the internal crisis and refuse to scrape the bone to cure the poison, then think of ways to rob from the outside to make up for the internal deficit.
However, the era when this method is feasible is over. World War II has proved that the cost of war is too high, and it is not cost-effective to seize resources and markets through war. Moreover, mankind has entered the era of nuclear weapons, and the fragile world peace can be maintained through the establishment of nuclear balance among major powers. Times have changed, and this approach has become unworkable. The United States wants to start war and rob foreign countries, but it can’t. The United States once expressed dissatisfaction, but since the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the U.S. government was burdened with heavy debt, it finally refused and had to obey. The research team of the war cost project of Brown University in the United States released a report saying that the 20-year war after the “9.11” incident cost the United States about $8trillion.
The problem of Japan also exists in the United States. The debt scale of the United States has also increased at a visible rate, and the money printing machine in the United States is also starting faster and faster. Although the United States has stronger scientific and technological strength, a higher status of the dollar and a stronger ability to transfer crises abroad, the United States cannot escape the institutional curse of capitalism.
Capitalism has produced a nation-state in order to make better use of war to rob others and not allow others to rob themselves. But the nation-state is also the bondage of capital, which likes to flow freely all over the world. In the eyes of capital, national interests are a “burden” that has to be maintained with money. Therefore, capital hopes that the state will appear as a “night watchman”. As long as domestic social contradictions are not intensified to the extent that houses are about to collapse, do not interfere with the happy making of capital. This is why capital likes Neo liberal economic policies.
Abenomics is Neo liberalism. Abe can be the Japanese Prime Minister for so long on the premise that he has seen through Japan’s problems, is good at catering to Japan’s capital chaebols, and has achieved a happy time for Japan’s political and capital chaebols.
But this beauty is short-lived. Abe can’t turn the blade inward, so he can only choose to wave the knife outward. Therefore, while implementing abenomics, he embarked on the road of reviving militarism politically, and never looked back.
Abe should think that this is the only way out for Japan.
The increasing confrontational contradictions between the United States and China also give Japan an opportunity.
4? American attitude and Japan’s fatalistic cycle
The first obstacle for Japan to completely liberate militarism from the shackles of the peaceful constitution is the United States.
The peace constitution was formulated when the United States occupied Japan. To overturn the peace constitution, the United States must also agree.
Japan is now shouting so loudly about Amending the peace constitution, which naturally has the tacit consent of the United States. In order to deal with Russia, the United States allowed Germany to expand its military; In order to contain China, Japan will naturally be allowed to amend the peace constitution.
In order to contain its designated main opponent, the United States did not hesitate to release the “beast” locked by itself.
This incident also marked that the United States began to remove the “cornerstone” of the World War II order and lift the ban on the war machine of Germany and Japan in order to maintain hegemony.
Abe’s thief is here. He saw through this trend very early. Before the United States, he encouraged the United States to engage in the Indo Pacific strategy and played up the confrontation between China and the United States.
Abe Japan’s hope for national normalization lies in the tension, confrontation and conflict between China and the United States. Japan is the country that most hopes for a large-scale conflict between China and the United States.
Through the United States to contain China, through China to consume the United States, Japan has drawn chestnuts from the fire, and finally achieve the status of a normal power, and the end point is to achieve the status of a “nuclear power”.
Abe has paved the way for Japan. I think Abe is the most Yin among Japanese politicians. There is not much room for successors to play freely. Abenomics has plagued the Japanese economy for so many years, blocking the way for the Japanese economy to find other solutions, as well as the way for Japan to turn left. Japan can only follow the path of more and more right until it is broken again.
This is Japan’s destiny. Japan went through this more than 70 years ago, and gambling on national luck failed. Japan’s previous politicians have not been able to get through. Japan’s current politicians still have to take the road of betting on national luck, and it is impossible to get through.
With Abe gone, there is no doubt that Japan will continue to follow the Abe line without Abe from politics to economy.
The United States is also not on the right track. The United States has shifted from the anti fascist camp to the pro fascist camp. The Nazi phenomenon in Ukraine has been condoned and supported by the United States, just as before World War II, the United States also strongly supported Nazi Germany and militarism in Japan.
From 1933 to 1939, in the six years that Germany prepared for World War II, the American DuPont consortium and chemical company, Rockefeller consortium and Mobil Oil Company, Morgan consortium and its controlled telegraph and telephone company, Ford Motor Company signed huge orders with Germany. DuPont sold neoprene and aircraft explosion-proof agent technology to Germany through i.g. Farben; Mobil sells German tank lubricant technology; Mobil set up a gasoline plant for aircraft in Germany, which provided important help for Nazi Germany to develop the air force; The telegraph and telephone company participated in the development of new aircraft in Germany, and the United States also provided the most advanced aircraft engines to Germany at that time.
The same is true for Japan. From 1932 to 1940, the United States not only provided Japan with a large amount of military materials, but also granted large loans. In 1937, Japan imported 54.4% of the total military materials from the United States, including 150million yen worth of machine tools and more than 5.5 million tons of oil. Even U.S. congressmen said, “please remember, when Japan killed 1million Chinese people, the United States was an accomplice to help Japan kill 544000 Chinese people.” In these eight years, aluminum, lead, oil, scrap steel and copper exported by the United States to Japan accounted for 18%, 45%, 70% and 90% of Japan’s total imports of related materials respectively. Especially in the three years from 1937 to 1939, Japan spent a total of 510million dollars to import military materials and strategic raw materials from the United States, and these materials accounted for nearly 70% of the total imports.
Therefore, there is no need for the Chinese to be grateful to the United States for declaring war on Japan. Without the support of the United States to Japan, Japan’s invasion of China would be difficult to continue.
History is not a simple repetition, but similar plots appear again. Germany and Japan began to expand their armaments again with the permission and support of the United States.
The post World War II order has come to an end.
Mankind has once again come to a turbulent era. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine officially kicked off. All efforts conducive to weakening the status and strength of the United States will ultimately contribute to the realization of world peace.
Japan is close to China. Japan takes China as its main imaginary enemy in revising the peace constitution and expanding its military to prepare for war. Japan has gone a long way on this road of no return.
In July 2021, Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Taro Aso also openly said that “Japan and the United States must jointly defend Taiwan”.
In December 2021, Abe participated in the Forum on “Taiwan Japan relations in a new era” and publicly stated in his speech that “what happens in Taiwan is what happens in Japan”.
In April, 2022, in the proposal of the Liberal Democratic Party Political Survey Committee on national security strategy, China was positioned as a “major threat” for the first time. Militarily, Japan “called on all countries to jointly contain China”. Japan also had a “counterattack capability” to attack the command center of the enemy country, which was clearly pointed.
Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reported that the Japanese government plans to send active duty officials of the defense ministry “to Taiwan as soon as this summer”.
Now Japan not only aims at China, but also cannot turn back on its own.
5? Japan’s greatest threat to us and hope for peace
China cannot put the hope of peace on the Japanese politicians’ flying back, but to strengthen itself. Only by establishing a strong military force can we curb the idea of the United States and Japan jointly dragging China into a military war, have the strength to win the war, stop the war, and continue long-term peace for East Asia.
Japan’s preparation is not only in terms of domestic constitutional amendment and military budget increase, but also Japan’s penetration into China is second only to the United States. After Abe’s death, so many beautified and mourning people in China are more painful than the Japanese. Of course, this phenomenon is not natural. Behind it is Japan’s long-term infiltration of China.
How serious is this penetration? In December, 1985, the people’s Education Publishing House signed a cooperation with Guangcun book publishing house and Zhushi (Zhushi) association in Japan. In 1987, it conducted mutual examination of historical geography textbooks with the Japan International Education Information Center, and the two sides agreed to conduct mutual examination of textbooks in turn every year. Since then, PEP has conducted extensive and in-depth cooperation and exchanges with Tokyo books, Japan WangWen society, Japan Textbook Research Center, Japan International Education Information Center, Japan Foundation for international exchange and other official institutions and publishing houses. The mutual review of history and geography textbooks has almost never been interrupted. With such cooperation, the problems of beautifying aggression, refusing to reflect and attempting to restore militarism in a large number of Japanese textbooks have not been solved, and the word “Japanese pirates” in China’s Xinhua dictionary has disappeared.
Before the September 18th Incident, Japan launched a cultural infiltration into China that lasted for decades.
In the eighth year of Guangxu, Japanese Oka Zhengkang and Jiangnan Zhefu jointly founded Shanghai business miscellaneous newspaper and began to run newspapers in China in Japan.
In 1906, Japanese makio Nakajima founded Shengjing Times in Shenyang. After that, under the operation of tokuke sakhara, the sales volume soared to 20000 copies.
In 1919, Kanto daily was published in Dalian. In 1921, another important Japanese newspaper, Manchukuo newspaper, appeared in Dalian. In 1922, Datong culture was launched.
Shenyang has “Fengtian Daily News” and “Fengtian Daily News” founded by Yano Kan in 1921.
In 1920, Beiman daily appeared in Changchun.
The extreme East news appeared in Harbin in 1918, and Nakajima Zhenxiong founded the Great Northern News in Harbin in 1922.
With so much bedding, there were so many traitors later. Judging from Japan’s long-term preparations, the September 18th Incident is hardly an accidental event of the Japanese army’s “xiakeshang”. Before the September 18th Incident, Tanigaki seigiro mentioned in his mobilization before the station: “(China) is a country that is very different from the situation of modern countries. In the final analysis, it is just adding the name of country to such an area with autonomous tribes. Therefore, from the real national development history of the general public, the national consciousness is undoubtedly very weak”.
There are other reasons why Chinese people have such a spiritual outlook, but it certainly has a lot to do with Japan’s long-term cultural infiltration into China. ??
Combined with history, it is easier to see Japan’s plot clearly. We remain highly vigilant about Japan’s constitutional amendment to lift the ban on Japanese militarism, but there is no need to be afraid of it. Japan is no longer an equal opponent of China and Japan in terms of national strength. Our real opponent is Japan’s master, the United States. We should not only prevent Japan from stimulating the conflict between China and the United States, but also prevent the United States from excessively directing China’s attention to Japan. If the US problem is solved, most of the Japanese problem will be solved. The Japanese problem is a subsidiary of the US problem.
Therefore, externally, keep an eye on Japan, and take preventing Japan from carrying out “nuclear armed” as the bottom line that is firmly not allowed to touch. If Japan touches this bottom line, China can cooperate with Russia to carry out preventive attacks against Japan by all means. We should resolutely safeguard the territorial sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands and other territories, resolve the Taiwan issue as soon as possible, seize Japan’s maritime lifeline, and prevent Japan from doing things wrong to China. When necessary, we can also raise the issue of the status of Ryukyu.
Internally, we should curb the infiltration of Japan, and figure out all kinds of infiltration of Japan (and of course the United States) into China in the name of aid. Of course, the most ideal situation is for China to reverse osmosis Japan and divide Japan. Just as in the Mao era, Mao Zedong thought has affected a large number of young people in Japan who agree with the Chinese system and advocate China Japan friendship. These people have become Japan’s left wing and have formed constraints on Japan’s right wing. Shinsuke Kishi, Abe’s grandfather, tried to achieve a breakthrough in the peace constitution through the security treaty curve, but failed. It was Japan’s left wing that played an important role. This is the least costly way to solve the Japanese problem.
To fundamentally weaken Japan’s war potential, it is necessary to further weaken the strength of Japan’s manufacturing industry. China’s industrial upgrading can be accompanied by the completion of this historical task.