Author: Sheng Tang rushong source wechat official account: the chief shopkeeper’s knife has been authorized to reprint
Japan is having a little fun these days. Yesterday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would attend the NATO summit in Germany on June 26, the first time in Japanese history. It means that Japan’s attitude towards the western world is further clarified, and it also means that the possibility of NATO’s eastward expansion to the Asia Pacific region is further increased. See the US’ NATO strategy. Of course, if Japan wants to join NATO, it must first break through the peace constitution, which is still a difficult task for the Japanese government. However, as long as Japanese politicians make up their minds, it will be completed in the end. How Japanese militarists used propaganda means to turn the residents of the four Japanese islands into murderous demons during World War II is still vivid. Today, they can do the same.
The most direct significance of Kishida’s participation in the NATO summit is to provide a placebo to the Europeans. Because Japan is close to China and Russia and does not have close relations with Ukraine, such an Asian ally can support Ukraine so resolutely. What reason do European countries, as close neighbors of Ukraine, have to refuse to help Ukraine? At the very least, the United States can use this reason to admonish European countries and ask them to further sanction Russia in a way that is close to suicide.
Most of the time, we don’t understand why Europe knows that this sanctions will kill a thousand people and lose a thousand or two, but they still have to follow the United States so resolutely? U.S. control over Europe is not enough to explain all the reasons, because even if Europe can not get rid of U.S. control, it can still be perfunctory. However, we see that except for a few countries that can not live without Russian energy, other countries’ support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are playing real. In particular, Sweden and Finland announced their accession to NATO at this time. From a common sense point of view, these are very abnormal.
Therefore, I think the most important reason why Europe resolutely stands beside the United States this time is to safeguard their so-called common values. However, the so-called common values are still common interests. In modern times, the western world relies on this so-called common value to plunder resources and control the market. This is well known to both the virgin Europe and the robber America. Therefore, once they encounter a crisis that really threatens their common values, they must stand together. Understanding this reason, we can get two insights.
First, the European sanctions against Russia at all costs prove that Russia has really moved to the root of the Western value system this time. They can endure rolling a few leaves and cutting a few branches, but they will never tolerate digging roots. Therefore, we should firmly support Russia’s rooting.
Second: Based on Europe’s determination to uphold values this time, we can understand that the nature of western countries is difficult to change. If one day they think that we have also threatened their foundation, the same pressure and sanctions will surely fall on us. We must not take chances on this, let alone have Mr. Dongguo’s “mercy”. Therefore, we must firmly support Russia’s root digging action, because if the root digging continues this time, our roots will be in danger.
In conclusion, we can basically determine the mentality of Japan in attending the NATO summit. Because Japan has long regarded itself as the representative of the Western value system in Asia, and even more as the agent of the western system in East Asia. At this critical moment when Russia challenged the western system, Japan stood in the Western camp in such a reckless and clear-cut manner.
Why is it so indifferent? Because Russia had previously courted Japan, at the end of last year, the peace talks between Japan and Russia entered a critical moment, and Russia intended to make appropriate concessions to Japan. However, after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war in February, Japan immediately followed the United States in condemning Russia and imposing sanctions, and even helped the United States to persuade India and use its own energy contracts to help Europe, which made Russia very unhappy. As a result, Russia decided to terminate the Japan Russia peace talks indefinitely. In other words, Russia has closed the door of peace to Japan. Then, Russia announced to increase the development of the South Kuril Islands, which also fundamentally cut off the road of peace with Japan. In the future, if Japan wants to recover the South Kuril Islands, the only means is war. Form an alliance with Europe and the United States to defeat Russia, and then carve up Russia. Otherwise, the so-called four northern islands will always be the South Kuril Islands. This shows that Japan is not ready to turn back on the road of following the West.
However, Japan’s choice must not be simply understood as recognition of the Western value system and loyalty to the United States. In fact, Japan certainly has its own considerations. This country of ghosts and spirits will never really stand on the side of justice and selfishness.
First, it is the prediction of the future pattern of the world. In Japan’s view, even if China and Russia really stand together, they may not be able to shake the western system. Moreover, it is difficult for the strategic cooperation between China and Russia to reach the close degree of Europe and the United States. As a world-class power, China and Russia will become closer to each other only when they encounter a crisis. Once the crisis is lifted, China and Russia will also have mutually restrictive interest contradictions. For example, the development of China’s the Belt and Road in Central Asia makes Russia worry about the weakening of its status, and the high level of cooperation between China and the EU will also make Russia worry about its marginalization. These are one of the reasons why Japan feels that it is more correct to take refuge in the West. Moreover, based on the selection experience of World War I and World War II, following the United States will be the final winner. This is a successful experience in history. Although this experience may not be reliable, the Japanese still want to gamble.
Second, even if the United States and Europe lose the game against Russia, Japan still has its own plan. If the United States loses its hegemony, where should Japan go? Turn east to Russia or China? This is something that Japan is absolutely unwilling to do. Japan has always felt that it is excellent and wants to become a pole in a multipolar world, especially a leader in Asia. If the United States really loses its hegemony, can Japan replace it in Asia? This is not only what the Japanese dream, but also what the Japanese are planning day and night.
But it is clear that if the United States, which has lost its global hegemony, is unable to catch up in Asia, it will be replaced by China instead of Japan. From a common sense, this is a very obvious thing. Because China has always been the dominant player in Asia in terms of economic scale, current national influence and historical factors. Therefore, if Japan wants to achieve this kind of scheme, it can only take an unusual path.
That is to find ways for the United States to contribute to it, and even, if necessary, to provoke conflicts between China and the United States. Let both China and the United States lose and Japan gain from it. For this reason, Japan must pay a certain price. But as long as the cost is not Japan’s death first, those militarists may take such risks.
Japan has provoked conflicts between China and the United States or between the United States and Russia in two directions: the South Kuril Islands and Taiwan. This is probably the cautious thinking in Japan. As long as Japan makes trouble first, and then tries to pass it on to the United States, causing irreconcilable contradictions between China and the United States or between the United States and Russia, or Japan takes the lead to make the United States feel profitable, Japan’s goal will be achieved. Now the United States is actively preparing for this. See operation watchdog
This plot of Japan should not be regarded as fanciful. Japan’s current stance towards Russia, its actions around the South Kuril Islands and its breakthrough on the Taiwan issue are all preparing for such an adventure. Once the United States and Russia have a winning or losing trend on the Ukrainian issue, Japan will make corresponding actions. If the United States and Europe win, Japan will go to the southeast Kuril Islands. If the United States and Europe lose, Japan will seek trouble in the direction of the Taiwan Strait.
For Japan, which has been tied by the United States for more than 70 years, either it still considers the United States as its Godfather or it will be its own Godfather. Other ideas are unacceptable to Japanese militarist politicians.
Can China really achieve nuclear parity with Japan? The Japanese will never believe it. Most people in the world should not believe it, so their adventure and ambition are still confident.