Original: Gu Ziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: zhengshitang plus2019
Japan’s constitutional amendment is unstoppable.
In the early morning of the 11th, the Japanese Senate election was announced, and the Liberal Democratic Party swept 63 of the 125 seats, winning a landslide victory.
Thanks to Shinzo Abe’s blood sacrifice, the voting rate in the Senate election hit a record, and the right-wing forces grew rapidly. Even though the number of female parliamentarians reached a new high, the four right-wing parties still won the election, and all the left-wing parties, except the newly established order and the new election group, lost miserably.
After this round of elections, the ruling coalition Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito party in the Senate have a total of 146 seats, and the Reform Commission and the National Democratic Party have 31 seats, making the right-wing supporters of constitutional amendment get 177 seats, significantly exceeding the two-thirds of the seats required for constitutional amendment (166 seats).
This also means that Japan’s constitutional amendment environment has basically been achieved.
Internally, the constitutional amendments in both houses of the house and Senate of Japan have significantly exceeded two-thirds. Abe’s death has brought enthusiasm from the right wing, which is easy to meet half of the referendum. Moreover, Japan will not have elections in the next three years, and the Liberal Democratic Party has enough time to go through the formalities.
Externally, the confrontation between military groups caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the need for the Democratic Party to return to the Asia Pacific to raise dogs, plus the sleeping king still has two and a half years in office, the left-wing government of South Korea has stepped down, North Korea has suffered heavy economic losses, Sino US relations have fallen to the historical freezing point, and Russia, which is in deep trouble, has no time to look East.
The Liberal Democratic Party will usher in a “golden three years” with extremely stable internal and external environment.
Faced with such a heaven given opportunity to gather at the right time, place and people, it is impossible for Japan’s right-wing politicians not to grasp it. It is almost certain that all levels of Japanese politics will fully promote the amendment of the constitution.
The amendment of the constitution of Japan involves a lot of content, and our most concern is Article 9, which stipulates that Japan cannot have an army and has no right to wage war.
The short-term constitutional amendment faction cannot completely change Japan’s national attribute. There are two main directions for the future constitutional amendment: one is to write the self defense force into the Constitution and turn it into a legitimate army; the other is to increase the “emergency” bill to allow the prime minister to declare an emergency in the country, that is, the prime minister has the power to bypass the parliament to declare war and directly mobilize the self defense force in the future.
The former is to legalize the self defense force, which means that the Japanese Navy self defense force will be able to frequently appear in the disputed waters, which will greatly increase the possibility of conflict with neighboring countries; The latter means that as long as the state of emergency enters, the power of the prime minister will expand rapidly, which will greatly increase the possibility of right-wing elements to take the initiative.
Before, Abe was the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party. He was more similar to his Changzhou hometown ITO Bowen. He liked the mode of cutting sausage, and completed his constitutional amendment and national normalization step by step, digesting what he had eaten in front of him at every step.
As Abe, who was able to control the Liberal Democratic Party, was shot and died like ITO Bowen in those years, the enthusiasm of the right wing and the military headquarters will escalate rapidly. In addition to amending the constitution, the consensus within the Liberal Democratic Party will be less and less, and its actions will be more and more radical.
In particular, the young people within the Liberal Democratic Party will, under the banner of “inheriting Abe’s will”, turn the original slow pace into a radical religious fanaticism, and even use the Internet to compete as “zelianski” to gain public support.
It can be predicted that with the rise of Japan’s right wing and the acceleration of the constitutional amendment process, the relations between China, Japan and South Korea, which have just warmed up, will deteriorate rapidly, and the situation in Northeast Asia will become extreme and complex. We must prepare and respond in advance.
If East Asian politicians cannot deal with this series of variables well in the future, Japan and Taiwan may become Ukraine in East Asia in the future.
Finally, I hope that the final result of the investigation is that the assassin is an chonggen from South Korea.