Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
2022 is the year of Putin vs Biden. Now it is the middle and late June. It is obvious that Putin has won completely! The United States and the West have imposed the most severe sanctions on Russia, but Russia led by Putin has not really hurt its muscles and bones, and the special military operations of the Russian army in Ukraine are getting closer and closer to its political goals.
On June 17 local time, the plenary session of the 25th St Petersburg International Economic Forum was held in St Petersburg, Russia. Russian President Putin delivered an important speech at the forum and expounded his views on relevant political and economic issues. According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), Putin’s speech released five heavy signals:
The first signal: refuse to carry the “pot” thrown by the West and never compromise
Putin pointed out at the forum that the current deterioration of the global economic situation has nothing to do with the special military action launched by Russia against Ukraine. He stressed that the soaring inflation in the commodity and raw material markets had already appeared before the special military action, “which is caused by the long-term coercion of the world by the so-called irresponsible macroeconomic policies of the group of seven”. Putin said that Russia’s special military operations have become the “lifebuoy” of the west, and they take this opportunity to blame Russia for their mistakes.
The will of western countries is to blame Russia, saying that the special military action against Ukraine has led to the deterioration of the global economic situation. Putin’s attitude towards the accusations made by the United States and the west is very clear, that is, the responsibility lies in the wrong macroeconomic policies of the West. Apart from political factors, what are the negative factors affecting the world economy? Of course, there are the economic policies of the group of seven western countries, and there is also the issue of the United States engaging in geographical barriers in the world. However, it is certain that the Russian Ukrainian war actually had a negative impact on the world economy to a certain extent.
The West tries to shift all the responsibility to Russia, which of course does not recognize it. Therefore, the US and the West’s accusations against Russia and Putin’s excuses are essentially a contest of political opinion. Therefore, the key to this matter is not what kind of defense and counterattack Putin made against the west, but the position behind these words. According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), the core connotation of Putin’s words is that Russia will not make any compromise with the west, and the goal of special military operations in Ukraine will be achieved. Putin is ready to fight a protracted war, which is a decision that will have an important impact on the future global pattern.
Second signal: Russia is promoting a new development model of de Westernization
Putin said at the forum that Russia “will never take the road of self-defense and closed economy”. He put forward six main principles for Russia’s economic development, namely, maintaining openness, supporting free entrepreneurship, a responsible and balanced macroeconomic policy, social justice, advanced development of infrastructure and the realization of real technological sovereignty.
Do you feel familiar? Russia’s economic policy looks like the Russian version of China’s policy. We might as well re-examine it by changing our language habits: opening up, encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship, making progress while maintaining policy stability, improving people’s livelihood, advanced development of infrastructure and independent innovation in science and technology. These policies of Russia show that its economic development logic has been decoupled from the west, and now it wants to connect with China in the East. Therefore, it can be predicted that in the future, Russia’s economic development model will tend to fit in with China.
Putin’s subsequent criticism of the west is actually a commentary on the above-mentioned economic policies. Putin said that the West deliberately destroys the current global economic norms based on outdated geopolitical fantasies, resulting in a difficult period for the entire international community. Many trade, production and logistics links previously interrupted by the epidemic have undergone new tests. The world today is undergoing revolutionary, disruptive and unstoppable changes in geopolitics, economy, technology and international relations. The west is trying to stop this historical process.
What does Putin mean by these expressions? Putin means that the Western Geopolitical struggle is the fundamental reason for the destruction of the current economic rules and the global supply chain. Subversive changes are taking place in all fields of geopolitics, economy, technology and international relations. This subversive change is the reorganization of the rules of the global political and economic game and the redistribution of global wealth. The connotation of the West’s attempt to prevent this historical process is that they do not want the people of non western countries to live a good life.
Well, since the West does not want us to live a good life, we should use a new development model to fight against Western control and promote relevant changes. As for Russia’s special military action against Ukraine, it is promoting these changes. In fact, this is also Putin’s search for international political legitimacy for Russia’s special military operations, behind which Russia is promoting a new model of development.
The third signal: the global food crisis is breaking out, and Russia has food in its hands
Recently, the West has also accused Russia of being responsible for the current high international food prices. Did the Russian Ukrainian war have an impact on food prices? The answer, of course, is yes. However, it is clear that Putin will not be willing to be responsible for the rise of the international food prices, because even without the Russian Ukrainian war, the international food prices will rise, but it is clear that the Russian Ukrainian war has further exacerbated the rise in food prices.
Putin said that Russia can ensure domestic food security and is ready to contribute to balancing the international agricultural market. Russia’s statement is actually increasing its own chips, because there is food, which can further increase Russia’s global influence.
Fourth signal: the United States and the West failed to impose extreme sanctions on Russia
The sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia are unprecedented. There has never been such extreme sanctions against a sovereign state in history. Putin criticized this. Putin said that the economic Blitzkrieg launched by the United States and the West against Russia was unsuccessful. Sanctions have an impact on Russia but are not fatal. In fact, the EU has also suffered a great impact. Putin is announcing to the world that sanctions are a double-edged sword, especially the EU.
Fifth signal: Russia’s Ukrainian strategy has become clearer
Putin said that Russia does not oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU because the EU is not a military bloc. Russia has always opposed the military development of Ukraine because it poses a threat to Russia. At the same time, Putin doubted whether Ukraine’s accession to the EU would provide new impetus for Ukraine’s economic growth.
Putin’s remarks are very wise. Russia does not oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU for two reasons:
First, Putin is well aware that the EU cannot allow Ukraine to join, so this is a beautiful remark. Russia is opposed to Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Putin’s ultimate attitude is to doubt whether Ukraine’s accession to the EU will provide new impetus for Ukraine’s economic growth.
Second, Putin has been trying to increase the legitimacy of this military action.
Putin clearly pointed out that Russia’s special military action is “a necessary measure forced to be taken” and that “the situation will return to normal sooner or later, and it is inevitable that (Russia) will improve its relations with Ukraine”. Putin also stressed that Russia will not threaten other countries with nuclear weapons.
The so-called improvement of relations between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable. This subtext is the future and the new Ukrainian regime supported by Russia. Moscow must maintain good relations with it.
Therefore, we should understand that Putin’s goal is to join Russia in some regions of Ukraine and build a pro Russian regime in some regions. This process will last for months or even years. From this, we can also clearly realize that Russia’s division of Ukraine is a planned thing. In fact, the United States and even the whole west will eventually be forced to compromise!