Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
After the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war, Russia has drawn a red line for NATO many times.
At the beginning of the war, Russia clearly announced that whoever stopped Russia’s special military operations in Ukraine would be Russia’s enemy and would be eliminated by the Russian army. Putin also directly test fired nuclear weapons before the war, and announced that almost all nuclear weapons were put into combat readiness. We have seen the actual effect of this measure taken by Russia. No country really dares to stand up for Ukraine, so Russia has occupied almost one quarter of the territory in Ukraine.
Just now, Russia has drawn a red line for NATO, that is, if NATO attacks Crimea, it will declare war on Russia. This is the latest clear signal sent by Russia, which is also of great significance.
According to the Reference News quoted by Russian satellite news agency on June 28, Medvedev, vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, believes that any attempt to attack Crimea will be recognized as a declaration of war against Russia. If NATO countries do so, it will mean a conflict with the whole NATO. In an interview with Russian media, Medvedev also pointed out that “any attempt to attack Crimea is a declaration of war against China. If NATO countries do so, it will mean a conflict with the whole NATO. This is a ‘three wars’ and a comprehensive disaster.”
Why did Medvedev make such a warning? According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), there are three fundamental reasons:
1? Russia is warning NATO of the risk of direct involvement in the Ukrainian war
NATO has been supporting Ukraine. Over the past four months, its arms assistance to Ukraine must have reached billions of dollars, which is one of the fundamental reasons why Ukraine can support for so long. However, up to now, NATO has not dared to intervene. It is worried that the war will expand and NATO will have to go to war directly with Russia. All this is definitely not what the United States hopes, because its primary opponent is China.
However, from the perspective of Russia, it is objectively worried that NATO will really intervene in the war in Ukraine, because NATO’s intervention will make it difficult for Russia to achieve its war goals. Therefore, at present, Russia and NATO are afraid of fighting wolves. Russia is afraid that NATO will directly intervene in the Russia Ukraine war, and NATO is afraid that it will be dragged into the war. This mentality of beating wolves with hemp sticks will last for a long time. Even if the war stops, these mentality will not stop. Therefore, the game between the two sides will exist for a long time.
2? Crimea is a strategic area, and Russia will guard it desperately
For Russia, Crimea is too important, because if Crimea is lost, Russia will inevitably lose Ukraine, and the next direct pressure will be placed on the border area between Russia and Ukraine. Russia will not only be seriously contained, but also face the risk of internal division again.
Now, some NATO countries are ready to move, and even Poland has the desire and intention to participate in the war. In this case, if Russia and NATO really break out conflict and NATO really attacks Crimea, it will be a strategic strike and systematic risk for Russia. If Russia wants to stabilize, it may have to pay a huge risk and price.
In this case, Russia must issue a warning in advance to make NATO dare not attack Crimea, or tell NATO that if it really attacks Crimea, Russia will defend to the death and make NATO pay a heavy price. Medvedev said it could even trigger a third world war.
3? Russia is laying the groundwork for a new attack
What is the most recent news about the Russian Ukrainian war? It was the battle of northern Donetsk that won. The Russian army not only eliminated and captured a large number of Ukrainian troops. Another group of Ukrainian troops have already withdrawn to the last city in eastern Ukraine, lichansk. So far, there are about 10000 to 12000 Ukrainian troops in this city, which means that the war in eastern Ukraine left only these 10000 people in the most elite Ukrainian troops, and other troops were basically eliminated.
According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), nine times out of ten thousand Uzbek troops in the East have been eliminated, and their morale is low. Under such circumstances, it is not a long-term plan for the Ukrainian army to retreat to lichansk. In other words, the Ukrainian army cannot establish an effective defense line here, and will lose here again in the near future, and the Ukrainian army will basically be completely eliminated.
The current situation is that the Russian army must be preparing for the next step. The goal of the Russian army is not to teach Ukraine a lesson, but to occupy Ukraine and establish a pro Russian controlled regime in Ukraine. Next, Russia should not only continue to push forward in southern Ukraine, but also in northern Ukraine, including attacking Kiev and taking the Ukrainian capital in the future. These are already in Putin’s plan, or this is how it was arranged from the beginning. Only after the war began, the tactics were adjusted, but the goals were never adjusted.
In fact, after winning the northern Donetsk, Putin took new major measures. According to the Russian independent on June 27, Russia began to attack Ukrainian targets from the territory of Belarus. It is reported that according to the Ukrainian side, the day before yesterday, Russian tu-22m3 bombers taking off from the shaikovka airport in Kalu California launched cruise missiles over Belarus for the first time. At that time, Russian President Putin and Belarusian president Lukashenko were having talks in St. Petersburg.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia “launched 45 missile attacks on Ukrainian territory in less than a day”. The BBC quoted the Ukrainian military intelligence agency as saying that six tu-22m3 bombers were dispatched and 12 kh-22 cruise missiles were launched in the attack. The report also pointed out that this was the first air strike against Ukraine directly from the territory of Belarus.
What does this mean? According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), this means two things: first, Russia has indeed won a decisive victory in Wudong, and the Russian army is about to start moving westward; Second, Russia is ready to expand the scale of its attack. The above News revealed two signals: one is the large-scale use of bombers, which was not available in the past, indicating that Russia is going to accelerate its attack; The other is the use of Belarusian territory, which indicates that Russia should not only take more intensive war measures, but also expand the offensive surface of the war. In particular, Belarus actually participated in the war indirectly. As a result, the scale of the war must be expanded, and the war situation is also evolving to the depths. To some extent, this is also Putin’s real big move!
Once the elite troops of Ukraine are eliminated, and once Putin decides to accelerate the westward advance, large-scale aerial bombing will begin, which will make the war enter a new stage of development and accelerate the advance on the battlefield.
Since Putin has such great will and appetite, and has begun to take measures, Russia must quickly increase the war cost of NATO, so as to strive for greater war space and more war time. Therefore, it is in line with Russia’s interest logic to use Crimea to express Russia’s attitude.
Let’s continue to look down. The Russian Ukrainian war has entered the deep water area, and a major breakthrough is coming.
In the past four months, at the beginning, Russia made a wrong judgment and launched an all-round attack, but the troops were insufficient. As a result, the battlefield was stuck; In the second stage, we adjusted our tactics and began to concentrate on eliminating the elite Ukrainian army in Wudong. As a result, we fought it down in twoorthree months and achieved great results. We not only took full control of Lugansk and Donetsk, but also wiped out the Ukrainian army on a large scale. Now, the elite of the Ukrainian army has been basically eliminated. In the future, if the last more than 10000 people are eliminated, I am afraid the Russian army will be destroyed westward. In particular, once the Russian air and space forces carry out large-scale bombing of Ukraine, Ukraine simply cannot withstand it.
War is cruel, but war is often unavoidable. In this predatory environment, small countries can generally survive and develop smoothly as long as they do not die. However, once a small country dies in the face of a big country, it will not be far from a qualified country to have a big problem.