Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
On July 13, North Korea suddenly announced that it recognized the Republic of Donetsk and the Republic of Lugansk. This is both unexpected and logical. It is a timely help for Russia, a favor for North Korea, and more importantly, North Korea may gain huge political and practical benefits in the future. It can be described as a very wonderful move.
North Korea is the third country besides Russia and Syria to recognize two republics. Of course, this was another blow to Ukraine, so the Ukrainian Ministry of foreign affairs immediately announced that Ukraine had suspended diplomatic relations and economic ties with North Korea due to North Korea’s decision to recognize the independence of eastern Ukraine. President Zelensky also announced in his daily routine video speech that Ukraine would respond very severely to North Korea’s recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk at all levels, but he did not specify what specific measures would be taken. In fact, it is difficult to take any measures. The common interests of Ukraine and North Korea are pitiful and completely negligible.
So, what is the matter with North Korea’s announcement of recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk? Zhanhao believes that there are three fundamental reasons:
1? Russian lobbying
To recognize these two countries, Russian lobbying is very important. After all, this matter is at least disreputable in the international view, and most countries dare not support it like this. Syria supports it because its national destiny is in the hands of Russia, its enemy is the United States, and Ukraine is a puppet of the United States, so Syria is the first to recognize it under the influence of Russia.
In fact, Russia’s lobbying is not a country that they will lobby. Just like China cannot recognize Donetsk and Lugansk, Russia cannot lobby China with this point. Other allies in Central Asia are estimated to have lobbied, but the relevant countries must be too taboo to support Russia to do so, and they must have a sense of crisis. In fact, even Belarus did not recognize Donetsk and Lugansk, because Belarus was sandwiched in Eastern Europe, and he was afraid that he would be retaliated by the West. Objectively, it is not easy for Russia to persuade North Korea.
As for the recognition of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc., Donetsk and Lugansk are not counted internationally, because they themselves are not considered by the international community as sovereign states, they are just political entities.
2? The favorable conditions and short-term practical interests of North Korea
For North Korea, objectively recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk is a mercy. On the one hand, the common interests of North Korea and Ukraine are too few to be ignored, so the damage of breaking diplomatic relations with Ukraine to North Korea is zero. Objectively, North Korea can do this favor to Russia, which is the basis of this matter.
Of course, for Russia, it still takes out what North Korea needs, such as weapons. If Russia exchanges military technology with North Korea to recognize Donetsk and Lugansk, North Korea is certainly happy. It is certainly a profitable thing to exchange indifferent diplomatic relations for the upgrading of relations with Russia and get military technology. For North Korea, a country with military politics, Russia can get enough technology to attract North Korea’s heart in exchange for North Korea’s cooperation.
For Russia, some military technologies are probably just a drop in the bucket, but some countries admit that Donetsk and Lugansk are very needed politically, so Russia must be very active. After weighing the pros and cons, North Korea immediately took action.
3? The strategic layout of North Korea and the expectation of huge benefits in the future
According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), North Korea’s promise is definitely more than the above interests and interests. Russia must have mediated for a long time. According to Russian media reports, the negotiation and contact between the Donetsk Republic and North Korea has been for some time. Moreover, on July 12, Donetsk’s “foreign minister” publicly said that after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two sides, the relationship between the two countries would also be handled by the North Korean Embassy in Moscow. To put it bluntly, North Korea regards them and Russia as one, which is exactly North Korea’s positioning.
Therefore, objectively speaking, whether North Korea admits that they will eventually be incorporated into Russia is tantamount to recognition. Now admit that what North Korea has lost is the diplomatic relations of a country that is about to perish, but what it has improved is the relations of a world power and military power, or is it a timely help? Why not?! Of course, more importantly, North Korea has been sanctioned by the United States and the West. North Korea and the United States and the West really have no common interests, so breaking off diplomatic ties with Ukraine objectively does not affect North Korea’s own national interests.
However, for North Korea, short-term interests are still small, and the really huge interests may come from future expectations.
As we all know, the United States has been promoting the new cold war, and once the new cold war breaks out, North Korea must be the forefront of the cold war. What it will face in the future is the accumulated geopolitical confrontation, and even a war with South Korea may break out. Therefore, for North Korea, it is very important to accumulate resources now, and improving relations with Russia itself is a huge accumulation of political resources.
In fact, Russia has expressed its appreciation for the diplomatic actions of the DPRK, and the Russian Federal Council praised the DPRK as a “true friend” of Russia. Vladimir zabarov, vice chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the committee, said that Russia should further develop relations with North Korea. “Russia has always been very enthusiastic about North Korea.”
For Russia, once the new cold war breaks out in the world in the future, it will also need North Korea, the frontier bridgehead, to help it defend the gate of the Far East, so the two sides can be described as a hit it off relationship. After this incident, the relations between Russia and North Korea will be greatly improved.
In fact, once the new cold war breaks out in the future, the final outcome of the new cold war is the change of geographical map, and for North Korea, the opportunity for reunification comes. North Korea is a very impressive country, especially San Shuai. In recent years, it is really impressive that it has developed hypersonic weapons, and he has done what the United States has not done. Not only that, but also the 17 nuclear missile of the Mars gun with a range of more than 10000 kilometers, which can hit the United States mainland.
For North Korea, these weapons are powerful tools for reunification at a critical moment. In the future, once the new cold war breaks out and the United States finally retreats, the ability of North Korea can deter the United States from taking any action against North Korea, and then North Korea will have the opportunity to unify the south.
However, there must be the support of major powers behind the reunification of the south. It is not safe for North Korea to hang China alone, so it is strategically necessary for North Korea to hang Russia. With the two lines of Russia and China, the new cold war will really break out in the future and the United States will eventually retreat. The reunification of North Korea and South Korea is a matter of great probability.
From the perspective of San Shuai, although this time it is “favorable”, it actually sets a huge situation for North Korea, providing political insurance for the future reunification of the south. Don’t think it’s far away. A new cold war really broke out, and the reunification of North and South Korea may be in the next 10 or 20 years. At that time, if Russia can gain greater geopolitical influence by supporting North Korea, it will be easy to achieve mutual trust with the above.
Therefore, don’t underestimate this “transaction”, which objectively hides a larger “transaction”, and even has a huge potential impact on the future geography.
Moreover, it has to be said that when the fate of the United States is very tragic, Ukraine is about to be destroyed, and it is also used as a bargaining chip by North Korea. Even before South Korea did anything, its future political interests were traded away by North Korea and Russia.
This world is such a jungle. You don’t have enough wisdom. It’s a matter of minutes to become someone else’s chip. On the contrary, if it is a big country, how others deal, big countries have profit opportunities and space. For example, if the United States suppresses Russia, China can obtain Russia’s low-cost oil and natural gas; Another example is that the United States suppressed China, and China’s resistance is to prove to the world that China’s strength is not inferior to that of the United States… In short, for a country, strength is the foundation! China is becoming stronger and stronger!